Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

[Despote]

He's not really playing at a higher level than he did in 2022 at all.

In 2022 he had a dominant goalscoring year, was a decent bit behind McDavid in points, and only a small gap behind 2-5th in points. In points/gp, he was only a tiny bit behind #1 and #2.

In 2024 now, he's having a bit more of a dominant goalscoring year, yes. But he's also now being completely outclassed by 3 guys in both points and points/gp. Essentially, even without considering the big-3 right now, Panarin (4th in both points and points/gp) has the same point dominance over Matthews that McDavid did in 2022.

That's dumb logic. 2024 isn't any more higher scoring than 2022, the top three players are just having better seasons.

This reads like saying that Usain Bolts 9,58 wasn't that dominant since it happened during the best race of all time so the gap wasn't that big...

 

[filinski77]

The point of era adjusting seems to be to prop up Crosby and Ovechkin and pull everyone else down

They don’t realize that hockey was amazing before and amazing again, and the outlier happens to be their favorite era

They can’t admit that the hockey was dog shit for 15-20 years and is just starting to heal

You say hockey was dogshit, but completely refuse to accept that there has been significant changes in goalie equipment, rules/penalties etc.

It's no shocker that Crosby/Ovi/Kane/Malkin etc. all suddenly started scoring more points right at the same time that league-wide scoring increased. Despite the fact that they were much older and should have been in decline.

You can choose to be ignorant all you want. For example: Through 8 seasons:

Bossy = 0.78 goals/gp (64 goal pace)
Matthews = 0.65 goals/gp (54 goal pace)

Is Bossy a 20% better goal scorer through their first 8 years than Matthews is? Who cares that goal scoring was WAY higher in Bossy's career - Hockey is just dogshit now compared to back then right?

 

[leafsfan5]

Matthews with Domi and Bertuzzi seems to be working, they looked good last night together.

That line has been unreal since coming together, with an expected goals% of 68 and actual goals% of 65. It has also forced Matthews to become the line driver and not lean on Mitch which is what he used to do

Matthews is riding an 11-game points streak with 10 goals and 10 assists on this line

 

[filinski77]

That's dumb logic. 2024 isn't any more higher scoring than 2022, the top three players are just having better seasons.

This reads like saying that Usain Bolts 9,58 wasn't that dominant since it happened during the best race of all time so the gap wasn't that big...

Insults aside (as I actually provided stats and a real argument).

Hart trophy voting is ONLY relevant to the rest of the top players in the league. So if Matthews is performing worse relative the rest of the league, then he's not performing at a higher level in the consideration of Hart voting.

For what it's worth as well - all of the top-20 point scorers this year are projected to produce slightly higher than the 2022 top-20 point scorers (and then the top-4 are having significantly higher production). One of those situations where despite league-wide scoring being ever so slightly down from 2022 (trivial really), elite players are slightly up. That's why I like comparing relative to peers.

 

[Strangle]

You say hockey was dogshit, but completely refuse to accept that there has been significant changes in goalie equipment, rules/penalties etc.

It's no shocker that Crosby/Ovi/Kane/Malkin etc. all suddenly started scoring more points right at the same time that league-wide scoring increased. Despite the fact that they were much older and should have been in decline.

You can choose to be ignorant all you want. For example: Through 8 seasons:

Bossy = 0.78 goals/gp (64 goal pace)
Matthews = 0.65 goals/gp (54 goal pace)

Is Bossy a 20% better goal scorer through their first 8 years than Matthews is? Who cares that goal scoring was WAY higher in Bossy's career - Hockey is just dogshit now compared to back then right?

If you can say with a straight face that the Crosby and Ovechkin era doesn’t stand out compared to the era’s before and after, I’ll give you a cookie

 

[filinski77]

If you can say with a straight face that the Crosby and Ovechkin era doesn’t stand out compared to the era’s before and after, I’ll give you a cookie

Once again - no substance at all. These era discussions with you specifically are like talking to a brick wall. You love to make claims, but can't actually defend any counterpoint thrown against you.

Your arguments logic would lead you to confirm that Bossy is significantly better than Matthews. It would lead you to confirm that Ovechkin and Crosby actually became better hockey players in their mid-30's than they were late 20's.

See ya later.

 

[Despote]

Insults aside (as I actually provided stats and a real argument).

Hart trophy voting is ONLY relevant to the rest of the top players in the league. So if Matthews is performing worse relative the rest of the league, then he's not performing at a higher level in the consideration of Hart voting.

For what it's worth as well - all of the top-20 point scorers this year are projected to produce slightly higher than the 2022 top-20 point scorers (and then the top-4 are having significantly higher production). One of those situations where despite league-wide scoring being ever so slightly down from 2022 (trivial really), elite players are slightly up. That's why I like comparing relative to peers.

Here's how the top 10-20 stack up in terms of p/gp. Every comparable is actually scoring at a higher rate in 2022 than 2024. This is not a higher scoring season other than the top 3 players just having very special years. 2022 just didn't have a single standout season.

2022:

2024:

 

[TheStatican]

Goals per game this season : 6.22
Goals per game when Ovi did it : 5.56

Also,
Games Ovechkin played in when he scored 65: 82
Games Matthews played in when he scored 65: 76
Point being there's more one factor to consider when comparing the two.

The ice time is only related to Matthews, where as the scoring environment applies to everyone in the league. The ice time stat is useless, while the scoring environment stat has some value.

Getting to play more than 2 extra minutes on the powerplay per game is hardly useless. That's what the ice time adjustment is really about. The only time it wouldn't matter is if a player didn't scored at a significantly higher rate while on the powerplay, which is not the case here - Ovi scored at a rate more than 50% higher on the powerplay than at even strength(56% higher) so despite your own personal protestations, it matters.

As for adjusted scoring, if Matthews hits 70 he will be within a couple of goals of Ovi's adjusted total. At that point it's such a marginal gap that it makes that component essentially irrelevant.

 

[Sniper99]

Austin is the best player to never win a Stanley Cup, no doubt about it now

you couldnt be anymore wrong. We appreciate the comedy though.

 

[OldCraig71]

That line has been unreal since coming together, with an expected goals% of 68 and actual goals% of 65. It has also forced Matthews to become the line driver and not lean on Mitch which is what he used to do

Matthews is riding an 11-game points streak with 10 goals and 10 assists on this line

Two guys on the line are capable of playing more than just a skilled soft game.

 

[abax44]

you couldnt be anymore wrong. We appreciate the comedy though.

 

[WalterLundy]

Time to settle this adjustment talk once and for all. Here's how ALL the best goal scoring seasons compare since TOI tracking began in 97-98.

When adjusting by TOI Matthews comes out far ahead of Ovechkin considering he only has 3:21 of PP ice time to work with while Ovechkin had 5:36 which added him immensely in scoring 22 powerplay goals. Now when we adjust the numbers based on Even Strength Power Play and Short Handed scoring levels Ovechkin does comes out on top, though Pavel Bure matched him on a per-game rate in 99-00. But when you combine the two factors that's where things get interesting...

Raw Totals

G​	GP​	Name​	Season​	ESG​	PPG​	SHG​	G/Gm​
64​	75​	Matthews​	23-24​	48​	16​	0​	0.853​
64​	82​	McDavid​	22-23​	39​	21​	4​	0.780​
61​	82​	Pastrnak​	22-23​	43​	18​	0​	0.744​
60​	73​	Matthews​	21-22​	44​	16​	0​	0.822​
60​	82​	Stamkos​	11-12​	48​	12​	0​	0.732​
65​	82​	Ovechkin​	07-08​	43​	22​	0​	0.793​
59​	82​	Bure​	00-01​	35​	19​	5​	0.720​
58​	74​	Bure​	99-00​	45​	11​	2​	0.784​

Adjusted By TOI
to Matthews per game rates of ES 16:51 PP 03:21 SH 0:45

​

​

​

Actual​

​

​

TOI​

​

​

Adjusted​

​

​

​

​

GP​

Name​

Season​

ESG​

PPG​

SHG​

ESG​

PPG​

SHG​

ESG​

PPG​

SHG​

Tot​

G/Gm​

75​

Matthews​

23-24​

48​

16​

0​

16:51​

03:21​

00:45​

48​

16​

0​

64​

0.853​

82​

McDavid​

22-23​

39​

21​

4​

17:11​

03:55​

01:16​

38.2​

18.0​

2.4​

58.6​

0.714​

82​

Pastrnak​

22-23​

43​

18​

0​

15:40​

03:50​

00:03​

46.2​

15.7​

0​

62.0​

0.756​

73​

Matthews​

21-22​

44​

16​

0​

17:27​

03:05​

00:03​

42.5​

17.4​

0​

59.9​

0.820​

82​

Stamkos​

11-12​

48​

12​

0​

17:39​

03:48​

00:33​

45.8​

10.6​

0​

56.4​

0.688​

82​

Ovechkin​

07-08​

43​

22​

0​

17:08​

05:36​

00:09​

42.3​

13.2​

0​

55.4​

0.676​

82​

Bure​

00-01​

35​

19​

5​

16:44​

04:52​

01:37​

35.2​

13.1​

2.3​

50.6​

0.618​

74​

Bure​

99-00​

45​

11​

2​

17:15​

04:21​

01:56​

44.0​

8.5​

0.8​

53.2​

0.719​

Adjusted by scoring levels
to 2023-24 per game rates of ES 2.36 PP 0.64 SH 0.09

​

​

​

Actual​

​

​

Rates​

​

​

Adjusted​

​

​

​

​

GP​

Player​

Season​

ESG​

PPG​

SHG​

ESG​

PPG​

SHG​

ESG​

PPG​

SHG​

Tot​

G/Gm​

75​

Matthews​

23-24​

48​

16​

0​

2.36​

0.64​

0.09​

48​

16​

0​

64​

0.853​

82​

McDavid​

22-23​

39​

21​

4​

2.40​

0.65​

0.10​

38.3​

20.4​

3.7​

62.4​

0.761​

82​

Pastrnak​

22-23​

43​

18​

0​

2.40​

0.65​

0.10​

42.3​

17.5​

0.0​

59.7​

0.728​

73​

Matthews​

21-22​

44​

16​

0​

2.43​

0.60​

0.08​

42.7​

17.1​

0.0​

59.8​

0.819​

82​

Stamkos​

11-12​

48​

12​

0​

2.01​

0.76​

0.10​

56.2​

10.0​

0.0​

66.2​

0.808​

82​

Ovechkin​

07-08​

43​

22​

0​

1.86​

0.76​

0.10​

54.4​

18.4​

0.0​

72.8​

0.888​

82​

Bure​

00-01​

35​

19​

5​

1.88​

0.76​

0.11​

43.8​

15.8​

4.1​

63.6​

0.776​

74​

Bure​

99-00​

45​

11​

2​

2.00​

0.65​

0.09​

53.0​

10.7​

1.9​

65.6​

0.887​

Adjusted by scoring rates AND ice time

Player​	Season​	ESG​	PPG​	SHG​	Tot​	G/Gm​
Matthews​	23-24​	48​	16​	0​	64​	0.853​
McDavid​	22-23​	37.6​	17.4​	2.2​	57.2​	0.698​
Pastrnak​	22-23​	45.5​	15.3​	0​	60.7​	0.741​
Matthews​	21-22​	41.2​	18.6​	0​	59.8​	0.819​
Stamkos​	11-12​	53.7​	8.8​	0​	62.5​	0.762​
Ovechkin​	07-08​	53.5​	11.0​	0​	64.5​	0.787​
Bure​	00-01​	44.1​	10.9​	1.9​	56.8​	0.693​
Bure​	99-00​	51.8​	8.3​	0.7​	60.8​	0.821​

When taking into consideration both scoring levels and ice time, Ovechkin is still on top, FOR NOW. All Matthews needs to surpassed him is a single goal and he has 6 games to do it. And as we see he's already substantially ahead on a per-game rate. Once/if he gets #66 it will be without a doubt the greatest goals scoring season since at least the early 90's.

Unrelated to Matthews but related to the method.

Time on ice per game (seconds)
2022-23 McDavid:
EV: 1031, PP: 236, SH: 76

1995-96 Lemieux
EV: 864, PP: 408 SH: 195

Time on ice per game:

2022-23 McDavid:
EV: 17:11, PP: 3:56, SH: 1:16

Time on ice per game (estimates from your actual post on this subject):

95-96 Lemieux:
EV: 14:24, PP: 6:48, SH: 3:15

EVG/PPG/SHG adjustment

1995-96: EVG: 2.10, PPG: 0.90, SHG: 0.14
2022-23: EVG: 2.39, PPG: 0.65, SHG: 0.10

‘96 Lemieux in ‘23
70 GP: 62 G, 85 A, 147 P (2.10)
(34 EVG, 22 PPG, 6 SHG)
(49 EVA, 35 PPA, 1 SHA)

With McDavid ‘23 ice time:

70 GP: 56 G, 78 A, 134 P (1.91)
(41 EVG, 13 PPG, 2 SHG)
(58 EVA, 20 PPA, 0 SHA)

23 McDavid at 70 GP:
70 GP: 58 G, 76 A, 134 P (1.91)

23 McDavid at 72 GP:
72 GP: 60 G, 78 A, 138 P (1.92)

So I wanted to check this out for myself in this comparison and honestly it seems right to me. After last year ended I thought 96 Lemieux and 23 McDavid were essentially the same but hats off to you for showing this. The 96 Lemieux TOI and 23 McDavid numbers compared to all other seasons in that environment lists are excellent. I know it hinges on your Lemieux 96 TOI estimates (which seem to be close to 100%) so this is cool.

 

[TheStatican]

Unrelated to Matthews but related to the method.

Time on ice per game (seconds)
2022-23 McDavid:
EV: 1031, PP: 236, SH: 76

1995-96 Lemieux
EV: 864, PP: 408 SH: 195

Time on ice per game:

2022-23 McDavid:
EV: 17:11, PP: 3:56, SH: 1:16

Time on ice per game (estimates from your actual post on this subject):

95-96 Lemieux:
EV: 14:24, PP: 6:48, SH: 3:15

EVG/PPG/SHG adjustment

1995-96: EVG: 2.10, PPG: 0.90, SHG: 0.14
2022-23: EVG: 2.39, PPG: 0.65, SHG: 0.10

‘96 Lemieux in ‘23
70 GP: 62 G, 85 A, 147 P (2.10)
(34 EVG, 22 PPG, 6 SHG)
(49 EVA, 35 PPA, 1 SHA)

With McDavid ‘23 ice time:

70 GP: 56 G, 78 A, 134 P (1.91)
(41 EVG, 13 PPG, 2 SHG)
(58 EVA, 20 PPA, 0 SHA)

23 McDavid at 70 GP:
70 GP: 58 G, 76 A, 134 P (1.91)

23 McDavid at 72 GP:
72 GP: 60 G, 78 A, 138 P (1.92)

So I wanted to check this out for myself in this comparison and honestly it seems right to me. After last year ended I thought 96 Lemieux and 23 McDavid were essentially the same but hats off to you for showing this. The 96 Lemieux TOI and 23 McDavid numbers compared to all other seasons in that environment lists are excellent. I know it hinges on your Lemieux 96 TOI estimates (which seem to be close to 100%) so this is cool.

Interesting extrapolation, it would seem that the numbers do bare out the equivalency of those two seasons.

 

[AvroArrow]

Austin is the best player to never win a Stanley Cup, no doubt about it now

Tim Stutzle says hi

 

[WalterLundy]

Interesting extrapolation, it would seem that the numbers do bare out the equivalency of those two seasons.

Obviously 93 and 89 clear 23 McDavid (and I’d bet they would if you had ice time data to use as well) but I just thought it was interesting because 23 McDavid and 96 Lemieux reminded me of each other so much. Matching a season of that caliber is a remarkable achievement even if the top two by Lemieux are out of reach.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Getting to play more than 2 extra minutes on the powerplay per game is hardly useless. That's what the ice time adjustment is really about. The only time it wouldn't matter is if a player didn't scored at a significantly higher rate while on the powerplay, which is not the case here - Ovi scored at a rate more than 50% higher on the powerplay than at even strength(56% higher) so despite your own personal protestations, it matters.

As for adjusted scoring, if Matthews hits 70 he will be within a couple of goals of Ovi's adjusted total. At that point it's such a marginal gap that it makes that component essentially irrelevant.

If it was close no one would care. It's the equivalent of ten extra games played. 10 extra games played ENTIRELY ON THE PP.

Folks can't pick and choose which cases they want to do apples to apples for. If they are going to talk about how it compares, you can't just leave that lie.

As of today, Matthews has a 12 goal lead with 2 less GP whereas OV had a 13 goal lead with 3 more GP than his closest peer (not even getting into ice times). That's for those who want to argue about "peer dominance".

OV took 34% more shots to hit 65. Is era adjusted period 34%?

OV had 82.5% more PP time to get to 65 (equivalent of 10 entire GP extra on PP).

If we are to try and do "apples to apples" and assess whose season was better, there is much to consider.

 

[X66]

I'll tell you the one simple reason Matthews' 65 goal season trumps Ovechkins...

Matthews will be a Selke Candidate this year.

Matthews scored 65 without sacrificing the other side of the ice.

 

[The90]

Two guys on the line are capable of playing more than just a skilled soft game.

Which 2 guys are they? Matthews and?

 

[34]

We could stop at that, but the Leafs players are quick to proclaim that Matthews is the greatest goal scorer the league has ever seen and a future 1000+ goal scorer, which inevitably leads to some heated debate as these claims may be a little bit premature.

I am a big Ovechkin fan, I am looking forward to him beating Gretzkys record. I like the goal scorers in the league! That is where the excitement is, what gets the fans out of their seats. Ovi was the king until Matthews came into the league, the torch has been passed now.

Both players are generational talents.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

I actually have no clue what the point you’re trying to make is.

Of course ice time is related to both Ovi and Matthews, who are being compared. Scoring environment applies to everyone, sure, but certainly not evenly. How much of the increase is is due to 3rd/4th line plugs being phased out of the league? Or a switch to higher scoring defencemen? You can’t just dismiss one stat because you feel like it.

The ice time is being manipulated based on Matthews not being as effective on the PP as OV. It’s a bit silly to even have to point out how ridiculously flawed and silly the stat is.

Scoring environment adjustments are great, but at least there is merit to the ‘adjustment’.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

The point of era adjusting seems to be to prop up Crosby and Ovechkin and pull everyone else down

They don’t realize that hockey was amazing before and amazing again, and the outlier happens to be their favorite era

They can’t admit that the hockey was dog shit for 15-20 years and is just starting to heal

Really? Cause I thought it was supposed to give context to people so they don’t think for example that Jagr was a more effective scorer in 96’ when he had 149 points vs when he was the best player in the world in 99’ with 127 points.

Misinformed fans like yourself need this context, otherwise they will just think 149 > 127.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Also,
Games Ovechkin played in when he scored 65: 82
Games Matthews played in when he scored 65: 76
Point being there's more one factor to consider when comparing the two.


Getting to play more than 2 extra minutes on the powerplay per game is hardly useless. That's what the ice time adjustment is really about. The only time it wouldn't matter is if a player didn't scored at a significantly higher rate while on the powerplay, which is not the case here - Ovi scored at a rate more than 50% higher on the powerplay than at even strength(56% higher) so despite your own personal protestations, it matters.

Exactly, we can’t take away goals from OV because he is a more effective scorer on the PP. You see how that is flawed?

As for adjusted scoring, if Matthews hits 70 he will be within a couple of goals of Ovi's adjusted total. At that point it's such a marginal gap that it makes that component essentially irrelevant.

Agreed. But if he doesn’t hit close to 70, it won’t be as impressive. You can’t just pretend like the leafs/Matthews should have drawn more PPs and scored on them when he didn’t.

 

[v00d00daddy]

The ice time is being manipulated based on Matthews not being as effective on the PP as OV. It’s a bit silly to even have to point out how ridiculously flawed and silly the stat is.

Scoring environment adjustments are great, but at least there is merit to the ‘adjustment’.

I see that OV is/was more effective on the PP and you can shit on Matthews’ PP play but you’re ignoring that OV has had a shitload more PP minutes than Matthews.

As bad as you wanna rate Matthews’ PP ability…if he had as many minutes as OV he’d have more goals than he does.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

If it was close no one would care. It's the equivalent of ten extra games played. 10 extra games played ENTIRELY ON THE PP.

Folks can't pick and choose which cases they want to do apples to apples for. If they are going to talk about how it compares, you can't just leave that lie.

As of today, Matthews has a 12 goal lead with 2 less GP whereas OV had a 13 goal lead with 3 more GP than his closest peer (not even getting into ice times). That's for those who want to argue about "peer dominance".

OV took 34% more shots to hit 65. Is era adjusted period 34%?

OV had 82.5% more PP time to get to 65 (equivalent of 10 entire GP extra on PP).

If we are to try and do "apples to apples" and assess whose season was better, there is much to consider.

This stat is so ridiculously flawed. You can’t just pretend like Matthews is more effective at drawing penalties and scoring on them. On some level a player has control over this stat.

OV in 08’ drew 1.8 penalties per 60 mins. He scored on those penalties at an unreal rate. This makes him more impressive to me, that he couldn’t be contained and forced the other team short handed.

Now if Matthews was able to draw penalties as a similar rate, you might have something. But he can’t, and doesn’t, and so you can’t punish Ov for being better than him in this area.

I see that OV is/was more effective on the PP and you can shit on Matthews’ PP play but you’re ignoring that OV has had a shitload more PP minutes than Matthews.

As bad as you wanna rate Matthews’ PP ability…if he had as many minutes as OV he’d have more goals than he does.

And if the queen had you know what she would be the King. In 08 OV was an unstoppable force and he drew more penalties than Matthews does this season. Deal with it instead of trying to bend stats to fit your narrative.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

I'll tell you the one simple reason Matthews' 65 goal season trumps Ovechkins...

Matthews will be a Selke Candidate this year.

Matthews scored 65 without sacrificing the other side of the ice.

How about the fact that OV did it with a rookie Backstrom, and had to create his own offense and space, while Matthews did it by getting to areas where one of the most established passers in the game can find him?