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Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

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ijuka said:
Usually, it's done with season scoring ratio as the multiplier.

For example, if current season scoring is 3.15 and it's compared to a season with 3.87 scoring, then the multiplier is 1.22857 or so, which would bring Matthews's adjusted goals to 85.

However, this is imprecise because the league's average scoring differences might not align with the top players' scoring differences. For example, if the league has similar scoring for the top players but higher scoring for bottom 6 players, then adjusting scoring in this manner would make the current top players look disproportionately good in comparison.
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Ill agree its interesting to look but hard to take seriously. imo its just too hard to compare era to era properly. but it does help make more interesting conversations
 
ijuka said:
Usually, it's done with season scoring ratio as the multiplier.

For example, if current season scoring is 3.15 and it's compared to a season with 3.87 scoring, then the multiplier is 1.22857 or so, which would bring Matthews's adjusted goals to 85.

However, this is imprecise because the league's average scoring differences might not align with the top players' scoring differences. For example, if the league has similar scoring for the top players but higher scoring for bottom 6 players, then adjusting scoring in this manner would make the current top players look disproportionately good in comparison.
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oh almost forgot to say thanks
I have asked people to explain how they get their adjusted numbers many times and you are the first to ever answer it.
 
Goal #70 will be a blatant no-goal and deemed as such by the refs but then they change their minds when they get deafening boos and death threats by a crazy leaf crowd.
 
The top 3 best players in the league this year have undisputedly been Kucherov, MacKinnon and McDavid in some order (probably that one). I think Matthews' case starts at #4.

That being said - I could still see him finish 3rd in hart voting.

A few weeks ago, I was getting a ton of pushback on the idea of Matthews as a hart finalist. One predominant comment was "he's not even outscoring his teammate Nylander". Since then - he's built a 10 point cushion on Nylander.

I think outside of 70 goals, one thing that would be significant in his hart case is finishing top 5 in scoring. He obviously won't beat Panarin anymore and his 118 points, but Matthews is 6th with 107, and Pastrnak 5th with 109. Two games each, and Matthews has the tie breaker of course with more goals.

I'd like to see Matthews finish 5th in scoring, along with 70 goals. Also - I still won't write him off completely of 75 goals. He's had back to back hat tricks twice so far this year - who says he can't do it once more?
 
Oscar The Grouch said:
Matthews is not contending for a Selke trophy. There are countless instances of him giving up on plays, being soft in his own end, missing coverage etc. This is all just Leafs fandom/media's extra loud voice begging for their consolation Stanley Cup. It's an annual tradition. They got Matthews a Hart that way, so they're trying again.
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What about the Lindsay that was voted on by his peers? Media gave him that one too eh?
 
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sxvnert said:
Because the stats back it up.
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Historically a Selke player factors in on the penalty kill in a meaningful way. That means being trusted to kill about 25-40 percent of the team’s penalties.

Matthews kills about 14% of the leafs penalties. Compare this to those in Selke conversations like Lowry, Staal, and Kopitar who all kill about 40% of penalties, and are the most trusted on the team in 5-3 situations.

Matthews has improved significantly defensively and plays a 200ft game. Let’s just chill out with the hyperbole. He’s not in consideration for a Selke.
 
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MacMacandBarbie said:
Historically a Selke player factors in on the penalty kill in a meaningful way. That means being trusted to kill about 25-40 percent of the team’s penalties.

Matthews kills about 14% of the leafs penalties. Compare this to those in Selke conversations like Lowry, Staal, and Kopitar who all kill about 40% of penalties, and are the most trusted on the team in 5-3 situations.

Matthews has improved significantly defensively and plays a 200ft game. Let’s just chill out with the hyperbole. He’s not in consideration for a Selke.
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What is 'in consideration' in your eyes? Top 5? Top 8? Because he's in that range in plenty of articles that use actual defensive metrics. I don't see many (if any) Leafs fans saying he's going to win the Selke, or even finish top 3, but he's definitely in 'consideration' unless you consider that strictly the top three finalists. The Athletic posted another article today that included defensive metrics, both ES and SH time on ice, and he's in the same range and grouping of players you mentioned, among others like Barkov.
 
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MacMacandBarbie said:
Historically a Selke player factors in on the penalty kill in a meaningful way. That means being trusted to kill about 25-40 percent of the team’s penalties.

Matthews kills about 14% of the leafs penalties. Compare this to those in Selke conversations like Lowry, Staal, and Kopitar who all kill about 40% of penalties, and are the most trusted on the team in 5-3 situations.

Matthews has improved significantly defensively and plays a 200ft game. Let’s just chill out with the hyperbole. He’s not in consideration for a Selke.
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Matthews has 50 goals 5v5. You don't want to burn his ice time with PK duties when other players can do the same job. This isn't because Matthews can't PK, it's because he shouldn't.
 
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mobilus said:
Matthews has 50 goals 5v5. You don't want to burn his ice time with PK duties when other players can do the same job. This isn't because Matthews can't PK, it's because he shouldn't.
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I agree, and nobody has ever knocked on OV for not killing enough penalties. Not sure why Matthews has to be a Selke contender killing tons of penalties for people to get their point across. He’s not, and that’s okay.
 
Rob Brown said:
What is 'in consideration' in your eyes? Top 5? Top 8? Because he's in that range in plenty of articles that use actual defensive metrics. I don't see many (if any) Leafs fans saying he's going to win the Selke, or even finish top 3, but he's definitely in 'consideration' unless you consider that strictly the top three finalists. The Athletic posted another article today that included defensive metrics, both ES and SH time on ice, and he's in the same range and grouping of players you mentioned, among others like Barkov.
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Yeah top 3-5 is in consideration. Like he’s not in the top 3 for Hart, but I’d say he is firmly an honorable mention and will get some votes.

With the Selke he isn’t going to be too 5. He won’t get significant votes, and I haven’t even heard his name brought up as an honorable mention. I do see him tops in defensive metrics, and his defensive game has been brought up a lot this year. Just his name has not come up at all in consideration for the Selke.

Rob Brown said:
What is 'in consideration' in your eyes? Top 5? Top 8? Because he's in that range in plenty of articles that use actual defensive metrics. I don't see many (if any) Leafs fans saying he's going to win the Selke, or even finish top 3, but he's definitely in 'consideration' unless you consider that strictly the top three finalists. The Athletic posted another article today that included defensive metrics, both ES and SH time on ice, and he's in the same range and grouping of players you mentioned, among others like Barkov.
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Yeah top 3-5 is in consideration. Like he’s not in the top 3 for Hart, but I’d say he is firmly an honorable mention and will get some votes.

With the Selke he isn’t going to be too 5. He won’t get significant votes, and I haven’t even heard his name brought up as an honorable mention. I do see him tops in defensive metrics, and his defensive game has been brought up a lot this year. Just his name has not come up all in consideration for the Selke.
 
MacMacandBarbie said:
Yeah top 3-5 is in consideration. Like he’s not in the top 3 for Hart, but I’d say he is firmly an honorable mention and will get some votes.

With the Selke he isn’t going to be too 5. He won’t get significant votes, and I haven’t even heard his name brought up as an honorable mention. I do see him tops in defensive metrics, and his defensive game has been brought up a lot this year. Just his name has not come up at all in consideration for the Selke.
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I think he'll be a bit higher in the Selke voting than you might expect once the final votes are released, but I agree in that he won't be top 3 or anything. I could see him in the 5-10 range.
 
mobilus said:
Matthews has 50 goals 5v5. You don't want to burn his ice time with PK duties when other players can do the same job. This isn't because Matthews can't PK, it's because he shouldn't.
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Matthews has 38 5vs5 goals, 2 ahead of MacKinnon and 3 ahead of Hyman.
 
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Rob Brown said:
I think he'll be a bit higher in the Selke voting than you might expect once the final votes are released, but I agree in that he won't be top 3 or anything. I could see him in the 5-10 range.
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I can’t see him finishing higher than Barkov, Reinhart, Lowry, or Staal. Those names have been circulated a ton for the Selke. It’s really just fans talking about it. I can appreciate Matthews improving his defensive game, but he doesn't kill enough penalties for him to actually be a Selke contender. We can talk about Matthews game without pretending like he will get real Selke consideration.
 
The amount of mental gymnastics done to discredit anything positive any Leafs player ever does is comical.

Racking up goals when they don't count - pfft. My goodness some of you are miserable AF. Can't accept that the guy is clearly the league's premier goal scorer when it's plain as day to see. Pathetic lives some of you must live.
 
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MacMacandBarbie said:
I can’t see him finishing higher than Barkov, Reinhart, Lowry, or Staal. Those names have been circulated a ton for the Selke. It’s really just fans talking about it. I can appreciate Matthews improving his defensive game, but he doesn't kill enough penalties for him to actually be a Selke contender. We can talk about Matthews game without pretending like he will get real Selke consideration.
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Care to elaborate on the cases for Barkov, Reinhart, Lowry, and Staal?

What specifically, for each of those players, makes it so the inner circles you're talking to consider them for the Selke?

Is this based on advanced stats metrics, eye test, feel, or?

Actually curious.
 
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