Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

[v00d00daddy]

Goal #70 will be a blatant no-goal and deemed as such by the refs but then they change their minds when they get deafening boos and death threats by a crazy leaf crowd.

Maybe.

But you’re right about the crowd. Because the last 2 leafs games are in Florida. Which we all know is more Leafs nation than panthers and lightning combined lol

 

[authentic]

What is 'in consideration' in your eyes? Top 5? Top 8? Because he's in that range in plenty of articles that use actual defensive metrics. I don't see many (if any) Leafs fans saying he's going to win the Selke, or even finish top 3, but he's definitely in 'consideration' unless you consider that strictly the top three finalists. The Athletic posted another article today that included defensive metrics, both ES and SH time on ice, and he's in the same range and grouping of players you mentioned, among others like Barkov.

And he has been for about 5 seasons now.

 

[YukonCornelius 5thOA]

Do it AM! 70 will be sick!

 

[34]

Matthews = 69 + goals

McDavid + Draisaitl = 72 Goals


All this while being a far superior defensive player on top. Good chance he wins the Hart and Selke.

 

[authentic]

69 goals minus 18 pp goals = 51

I meant even strength.

9 more goals than anyone has primary assists, 14 more even strength goals than anyone has even strength primary assists. I wonder when was the last time anything like this was done

 

[Dr Pepper]

Matthews = 69 + goals

McDavid + Draisaitl = 72 Goals


All this while being a far superior defensive player on top. Good chance he wins the Hart and Selke.

.....Also a good chance he doesn't finish top three for either award.

C'mon now.

 

[authentic]

Matthews = 69 + goals

McDavid + Draisaitl = 72 Goals


All this while being a far superior defensive player on top. Good chance he wins the Hart and Selke.

I don’t think he will win either but he should win the Hart or atleast Lindsay. No one has been able to dominate the goal scoring race with his two-way game since Gordie Howe I’m guessing.

 

[34]

I don’t think he will win either but he should win the Hart or atleast Lindsay. No one has been able to dominate the goal scoring race with his two-way game since Gordie Howe I’m guessing.

For sure, Matthews > McDavid

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Care to elaborate on the cases for Barkov, Reinhart, Lowry, and Staal?

What specifically, for each of those players, makes it so the inner circles you're talking to consider them for the Selke?

Is this based on advanced stats metrics, eye test, feel, or?

Actually curious.

It is a combination of advanced stat metrics, eye test, 'feel' I assume you mean relying on Vegas betting odds and what names the media is pushing. All 4 of those players are being pushed by the media, and have the advanced stat metrics to back it up.

I would say the conversation starts with basic statistics, such as GA/60, time spent on the penalty kill and effectiveness killing those penalties, and then a high contribution on the offensive end. Matthews doesn't kill enough penalties, but checks the other boxes.

However when you go into advanced statistics and start looking at his on ice GA vs off ice GA, he falls short in these statistics to the front runners like Barkov and Lowry. Barkov and Lowry's teams rely on them a lot more for their impact on the overall team goal differential. Most have Barkov as a runaway frontrunner for this award because this advanced stat is so coveted.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

9 more goals than anyone has primary assists, 14 more even strength goals than anyone has even strength primary assists. I wonder when was the last time anything like this was done

2016 OV finished with 51 goals, which was 9 more than the leader of primary assists(Kuznetsov) and 10 above the next non teammate(Kane) had. I don't think this obscure stat is particularly impressive either, considering you can see that Kuznetsov led in primary assists purely just because OV is a good goal scorer.

I find most stats without context to be unhelpful, and am growing tired of an obscure stat being impressive due to the fact that it hasn't happened in x amount of years.

 

[TDotMassive]

The top 3 best players in the league this year have undisputedly been Kucherov, MacKinnon and McDavid in some order (probably that one). I think Matthews' case starts at #4.

That being said - I could still see him finish 3rd in hart voting.

A few weeks ago, I was getting a ton of pushback on the idea of Matthews as a hart finalist. One predominant comment was "he's not even outscoring his teammate Nylander". Since then - he's built a 10 point cushion on Nylander.

I think outside of 70 goals, one thing that would be significant in his hart case is finishing top 5 in scoring. He obviously won't beat Panarin anymore and his 118 points, but Matthews is 6th with 107, and Pastrnak 5th with 109. Two games each, and Matthews has the tie breaker of course with more goals.

I'd like to see Matthews finish 5th in scoring, along with 70 goals. Also - I still won't write him off completely of 75 goals. He's had back to back hat tricks twice so far this year - who says he can't do it once more?

I think a major part of his Hart case is the ELITE level of defense he's providing while chasing 70. He will win the Rocket and most likely being nominated for a Selke. This is an accomplishment never before seen in NHL history.

If Hart is about total value of a player to their team... then Matthews scoring a full quarter of his team's goals, while providing a level of defense far beyond the other 3, is a differentiating factor. For instance, while Kuch is likely to win the Art Ross, he has a negative defensive rating over the season, and in terms of overall elite hockey value, it should be factor.

If Matthews wins the Rocket (sure thing) and is nominated for Selke (very likely), then he must be top-3 in Hart voting. McDavid or Kuch should fall to #4.

 

[PaulD]

Have you run the numbers through your excel formula? How close or far away are they?

Lemieux’s career year was arguably 1989. He scored 85 goals that year and league average was 3.74

This is Matthews career year and he has 66 67 68 (and counting) with league average being 3.11

How do those stack up in the world of era adjustments?

"In the world of era adjusments" -

Mario better player.

 

[v00d00daddy]

2016 OV finished with 51 goals, which was 9 more than the leader of primary assists(Kuznetsov) and 10 above the next non teammate(Kane) had. I don't think this obscure stat is particularly impressive either, considering you can see that Kuznetsov led in primary assists purely just because OV is a good goal scorer.

I find most stats without context to be unhelpful, and am growing tired of an obscure stat being impressive due to the fact that it hasn't happened in x amount of years.

Fair enough.

Matthews has just put up the best goal scoring season since Lemieux in 95/96

Better than anybody still playing in the league.

Better than the guy chasing Gretzky’s all time record

Better than the best player in the league who put up his best goal scoring season last year.

And if he scores 1 more goal it’ll be most since 91/92.

(Edit: 92/93)

There’s some context that all the haters have to accept.

 

[StumpyTown]

Fair enough.

Matthews has just put up the best goal scoring season since Lemieux in 95/96

Better than anybody still playing in the league.

Better than the guy chasing Gretzky’s all time record

Better than the best player in the league who put up his best goal scoring season last year.

And if he scores 1 more goal it’ll be most since 91/92.

There’s some context that all the haters have to accept.

Just nitpicking, but in 92/93 Selanne and Mogilny tied with 76. (This takes nothing away from how well Matthews is doing this season)

This has been an incredible season for this guy. Kudos to him for his success, but nobody is surprised by him scoring a ton of regular season goals at this point. For him, the big test starts in the playoffs again and in him being effective there. Again, this takes nothing away from his regular season play.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

I think a major part of his Hart case is the ELITE level of defense he's providing while chasing 70. He will win the Rocket and most likely being nominated for a Selke. This is an accomplishment never before seen in NHL history.

Yikes. It will remain unaccomplished because Matthews has no chance to finish top 3 in Selke voting. Why is this being just perpetuated as fact? Can you provide the argument for him to finish above Barkov, Lowry, or Staal?

Can you provide your logic for thinking the voters will nominate a guy who barely factors into the penalty kill on his team, and doesn't impact on ice/off ice numbers for goal differential in a significant way in the top 3? For the first time ever?

Fair enough.

Matthews has just put up the best goal scoring season since Lemieux in 95/96

Better than anybody still playing in the league.

Better than the guy chasing Gretzky’s all time record

Better than the best player in the league who put up his best goal scoring season last year.

And if he scores 1 more goal it’ll be most since 91/92.

There’s some context that all the haters have to accept.

He finished with the highest goal scoring season, not best. That is clearly an opinion, and not even a majority one. You could just say he finished with the highest, make your point irrefutable, and then people can reply with agreement and your favorite player will be talked about in a more enjoyable manner, rather than coming at me with your obnoxious 'facts'

 

[pcruz]

It is a combination of advanced stat metrics, eye test, 'feel' I assume you mean relying on Vegas betting odds and what names the media is pushing. All 4 of those players are being pushed by the media, and have the advanced stat metrics to back it up.

I would say the conversation starts with basic statistics, such as GA/60, time spent on the penalty kill and effectiveness killing those penalties, and then a high contribution on the offensive end. Matthews doesn't kill enough penalties, but checks the other boxes.

However when you go into advanced statistics and start looking at his on ice GA vs off ice GA, he falls short in these statistics to the front runners like Barkov and Lowry. Barkov and Lowry's teams rely on them a lot more for their impact on the overall team goal differential. Most have Barkov as a runaway frontrunner for this award because this advanced stat is so coveted.

Thank you for an honest answer.

Do you happen to know whether these stats take into account, the goaltending difference between players on different teams.

For example, Barkov and Reinhart have Bobrovsky as their goalie.


Some of the key differences between Florida and Toronto can really be boiled down to this:

	Time on Ice	On-ice Save %	HD Gf %	HD Cf %	Gf %	Blocked Shots	Takeaways
Matthews	1334	88.38	69.88	61.06	61.68	91	84
Rielly	1459	89.17	60.44	54.1	54.12	135	27
Brodie	1457	90.58	57.5	49.07	54.48	156	20
McCabe	1301	90.67	48.53	51.58	56.82	127	16
Barkov	1019	91.61	71.74	61.85	66.35	49	60
Mikkola	1420	92.48	40.74	51.5	53.27	124	10
Forsling	1415	94.18	68.52	58.68	69.67	100	40
Montour	1232	91.59	43.59	55.41	50.52	67	17

The most glaring difference between the top 3 players in ice time and the #1 centre on each team is obviously the save %.

Toronto has had really poor even strength save %.

If you swap Bobrovsky for Samsonov, Matthews suddenly has much better defensive metrics, and Barkov suddenly has much worse metrics.

 

[LeafsNation149]

For sure, Matthews > McDavid

Nobody thinks this other than you.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Thank you for an honest answer.

Do you happen to know whether these stats take into account, the goaltending difference between players on different teams.

For example, Barkov and Reinhart have Bobrovsky as their goalie.


Some of the key differences between Florida and Toronto can really be boiled down to this:

	Time on Ice	On-ice Save %	HD Gf %	HD Cf %	Gf %	Blocked Shots	Takeaways
Matthews	1334	88.38	69.88	61.06	61.68	91	84
Rielly	1459	89.17	60.44	54.1	54.12	135	27
Brodie	1457	90.58	57.5	49.07	54.48	156	20
McCabe	1301	90.67	48.53	51.58	56.82	127	16
Barkov	1019	91.61	71.74	61.85	66.35	49	60
Mikkola	1420	92.48	40.74	51.5	53.27	124	10
Forsling	1415	94.18	68.52	58.68	69.67	100	40
Montour	1232	91.59	43.59	55.41	50.52	67	17

The most glaring difference between the top 3 players in ice time and the #1 centre on each team is obviously the save %.

Toronto has had really poor even strength save %.

If you swap Bobrovsky for Samsonov, Matthews suddenly has much better defensive metrics, and Barkov suddenly has much worse metrics.

There is zero chance the analysts and media personnel that vote on these awards are having hypothetical conversations where they swap two goalies and pretend they will post the exact same stats in a completely different system and facing completely different shots throughout the season, and then factor that into their decision making.

 

[kevsh]

Can you provide the argument for him to finish above Barkov, Lowry, or Staal?

Auston Matthews:
*+35 (5th in the league)
* 91 blocked shots (3rd)
* 83 takeaways (T2nd)

And yes, he kills penalties too but you're right, not on the first PK unit.
And when he's not blocking shots, generating turnovers or playing on the PK he's leading the league in goals, by far and is 6th in points.

 

[Mitch nylander]

Yikes. It will remain unaccomplished because Matthews has no chance to finish top 3 in Selke voting. Why is this being just perpetuated as fact? Can you provide the argument for him to finish above Barkov, Lowry, or Staal?

Can you provide your logic for thinking the voters will nominate a guy who barely factors into the penalty kill on his team, and doesn't impact on ice/off ice numbers for goal differential in a significant way in the top 3? For the first time ever?

He's got the best +/- in the league amongst forwards.
He's 2nd in the NHL in takeaways only behind Malkin.
He's 3rd for block shots amongst forwards only behind Malenstyn and Poehling.
He's got better advanced stats than Lowry.
The eye test shows he's clearly involved defensively.

Only guy who has a clear argument above at this point is Staal in my opinion. Who has better advanced stats than all 3 and a ton of defensive starts.

 

[Martin Skoula]

For everyone saying Staal and Lowry are going to be Selke finalists, when was the last time a guy with 30-some points and 15-16 mins ATOI was top 3 in Selke voting? As far back as I bothered to check every nominee was a top line player by TOI, the lowest was Couturier’s 2nd place finish at 19:50 and Stone’s 3rd place at 19:10.

Microstats all you want but the voters seem to value big all situations minutes over niche specialists.

Edit: nvm, I skipped checking Bergeron and his minutes were way lower than I remembered. Seemed like he was on the ice half the game in all situations every time I watched him, crazy how much impact he managed to have in 17-19 mins.

 

[pcruz]

There is zero chance the analysts and media personnel that vote on these awards are having hypothetical conversations where they swap two goalies and pretend they will post the exact same stats in a completely different system and facing completely different shots throughout the season, and then factor that into their decision making.

No, they also won't normalize power play time to factor in offensive production.


What they will do, is compare players from around the league, but they don't do it with any sort of intellectual integrity.

For example, Mackinnon has enjoyed exactly 100 more minutes on the power play than Matthews, this season alone.

He's scored 10 goals and 47 points on the power play this year with those 365 minutes.


Kucherov has played 50 more minutes on the power play than Matthews.

He's scored 13 goals and 52 points on the power play.


Matthews has 18 goals and only 29 points on the power play.

Is it fair to extrapolate that with a 37% increase in power play time, Matthews could score a few more goals and get some more points?



If one were to extrapolate his goal scoring/ time on ice on the pp alone, it could mean an extra 7 goals and 11 points right now.

Would the Hart voting be any different if Matthews currently had 76 goals and 118 points and was looking at an 80 goal season?


That's the problem with not normalizing differential factors when comparing.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

He better score another one, I am not gonna be happy with the humor here otherwise.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Auston Matthews:
*+35 (5th in the league)
* 91 blocked shots (3rd)
* 83 takeaways (T2nd)

And yes, he kills penalties too but you're right, not on the first PK unit.
And when he's not blocking shots, generating turnovers or playing on the PK he's leading the league in goals, by far and is 6th in points.

Sounds like a good Hart argument, not Selke. Ignorance of the award doesn't excuse posting stats like takeaways that don't get factored into the Selke at face value, and the fact that he is one of the league leaders in giveaways makes that stat less valuable in the Selke conversation.

No, they also won't normalize power play time to factor in offensive production.


What they will do, is compare players from around the league, but they don't do it with any sort of intellectual integrity.

For example, Mackinnon has enjoyed exactly 100 more minutes on the power play than Matthews, this season alone.

He's scored 10 goals and 47 points on the power play this year with those 365 minutes.


Kucherov has played 50 more minutes on the power play than Matthews.

He's scored 13 goals and 52 points on the power play.


Matthews has 18 goals and only 29 points on the power play.

Is it fair to extrapolate that with a 37% increase in power play time, Matthews could score a few more goals and get some more points?



If one were to extrapolate his goal scoring/ time on ice on the pp alone, it could mean an extra 7 goals and 11 points right now.

Would the Hart voting be any different if Matthews currently had 76 goals and 118 points and was looking at an 80 goal season?


That's the problem with not normalizing differential factors when comparing.

They won't look at any of these stats for the Selke conversation. You are correct. Not sure if anything in this rant is a coherent reply to the Selke related discussion that was happening. Maybe you meant to reply to one of the Hart discussion statements?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Care to elaborate on the cases for Barkov, Reinhart, Lowry, and Staal?

What specifically, for each of those players, makes it so the inner circles you're talking to consider them for the Selke?

Is this based on advanced stats metrics, eye test, feel, or?

Actually curious.

I'm curious about this as well. I've looked into the rate stats this season and nothing about them screams Selke level defence from Matthews. He's good - top 25% among forwards with 800+ minutes played - but Selke caliber is a pretty big stretch.

He's having a great season, and should be top 5 in voting, but I don't think anyone will beat MacKinnon this year, nor should they.

For everyone saying Staal and Lowry are going to be Selke finalists, when was the last time a guy with 30-some points and 15-16 mins ATOI was top 3 in Selke voting? As far back as I bothered to check every nominee was a top line player by TOI, the lowest was Couturier’s 2nd place finish at 19:50 and Stone’s 3rd place at 19:10.

Microstats all you want but the voters seem to value big all situations minutes over niche specialists.

Edit: nvm, I skipped checking Bergeron and his minutes were way lower than I remembered. Seemed like he was on the ice half the game in all situations every time I watched him, crazy how much impact he managed to have in 17-19 mins.

The guy that's not getting any Selke hype that really should be is Roope Hintz.