Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

[AvroArrow]

I'm curious about this as well. I've looked into the rate stats this season and nothing about them screams Selke level defence from Matthews. He's good - top 25% among forwards with 800+ minutes played - but Selke caliber is a pretty big stretch.

He's having a great season, and should be top 5 in voting, but I don't think anyone will beat MacKinnon this year, nor should they.


The guy that's not getting any Selke hype that really should be is Roope Hintz.

Agree completely with this. I know a lot of my fellow Leaf fans are calling him a Selke candidate, I just don't see it. He's very good defensively don't get me wrong, but Selke is a whole other level.

 

[Jared Dunn]

For everyone saying Staal and Lowry are going to be Selke finalists, when was the last time a guy with 30-some points and 15-16 mins ATOI was top 3 in Selke voting? As far back as I bothered to check every nominee was a top line player by TOI, the lowest was Couturier’s 2nd place finish at 19:50 and Stone’s 3rd place at 19:10.

Microstats all you want but the voters seem to value big all situations minutes over niche specialists.

Edit: nvm, I skipped checking Bergeron and his minutes were way lower than I remembered. Seemed like he was on the ice half the game in all situations every time I watched him, crazy how much impact he managed to have in 17-19 mins.

I think Staal is getting a lot of love as a legacy type. "Two way" also requires offence though so I agree as elite as they are as shutdown centers I don't think they belong in the award convo. Also not sure Matthews should though, he's become very good defensively but I think the Toronto media has just been repeating it so much it feels like he's better than he is

 

[authentic]

2016 OV finished with 51 goals, which was 9 more than the leader of primary assists(Kuznetsov) and 10 above the next non teammate(Kane) had. I don't think this obscure stat is particularly impressive either, considering you can see that Kuznetsov led in primary assists purely just because OV is a good goal scorer.

I find most stats without context to be unhelpful, and am growing tired of an obscure stat being impressive due to the fact that it hasn't happened in x amount of years.

I imagine being ahead of McDavid who has 99 assists in 74 games is a little more impressive than being ahead of Kuznetsov

 

[v00d00daddy]

He finished with the highest goal scoring season, not best. That is clearly an opinion, and not even a majority one. You could just say he finished with the highest, make your point irrefutable, and then people can reply with agreement and your favorite player will be talked about in a more enjoyable manner, rather than coming at me with your obnoxious 'facts'

Hahaha now the facts are obnoxious because you’re getting nitpicky about what “best” means.

Are you one of the people that talks about “era adjustment” to justify your hatred?

I’ll say it again. Best goal scoring season in a long time. I guess we’ll say that’s just like, my opinion.

But my opinion is backed up with facts. Facts that I just listed.

And how is my opinion on best goal season since Lemieux in 95/96 not a majority?

Are you using your OPINION on what people are saying to make that statement?

I love the garbage semantics people are using to help them digest that a TML is the best goal scorer in the NHL.

All kinds of stats back that up.

He is the best lol

 

[pcruz]

For everyone saying Staal and Lowry are going to be Selke finalists, when was the last time a guy with 30-some points and 15-16 mins ATOI was top 3 in Selke voting? As far back as I bothered to check every nominee was a top line player by TOI, the lowest was Couturier’s 2nd place finish at 19:50 and Stone’s 3rd place at 19:10.

...

...


The guy that's not getting any Selke hype that really should be is Roope Hintz.

Hmm

What seems to be the common factor for players like Hintz, Barkov, Lowry?

Vezina candidate goalies.


Staal hasn't had the benefit of playing with good goaltending this year, but he's also -14 on a team where the 1st line centre is +34 and finds himself 2nd worst on the team in terms of +/-.

Funny how Hischier fell off the face of the Earth in terms of Selke consideration after a runner-up season because his goaltending has been atrocious this year.

Matthews' goaltending hasn't been much better than Nico's.

 

[leafsfan5]

He better score another one, I am not gonna be happy with the humor here otherwise.

If I have to read another "nice" when looking at posts regarding AM34's scoring I will lose it

 

[bobholly39]

Agree completely with this. I know a lot of my fellow Leaf fans are calling him a Selke candidate, I just don't see it. He's very good defensively don't get me wrong, but Selke is a whole other level.

Forwards who excel offensively and do very well defensively often rack up a lot of Selke votes. Moreso than forwards who are stellar defensively, but have very little to show for offense. And in a Bergeron-free year where the award is more wide open, that could land him high on the list of Selke candidates.

This is less about whether he's deserving or not - more about how I could see votes playing out.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Care to elaborate on the cases for Barkov, Reinhart, Lowry, and Staal?

What specifically, for each of those players, makes it so the inner circles you're talking to consider them for the Selke?

Is this based on advanced stats metrics, eye test, feel, or?

Actually curious.

They pk more I guess ? Lots of plugs get pk time . I don’t think it’s necessarily a display of defensive ability to be a pker . To me it seems a much more prudent allocation of time to load him up at 5 on 5 and pp ops .

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Hmm

What seems to be the common factor for players like Hintz, Barkov, Lowry?

Vezina candidate goalies.


Staal hasn't had the benefit of playing with good goaltending this year, but he's also -14 on a team where the 1st line centre is +34 and finds himself 2nd worst on the team in terms of +/-.

Funny how Hischier fell off the face of the Earth in terms of Selke consideration after a runner-up season because his goaltending has been atrocious this year.

Matthews' goaltending hasn't been much better than Nico's.

Jake Oettinger has been *extremely* middling all year. He's ranked 42nd as per Moneypuck in goals saved above expected, which is basically dead average.

Samsonov hasn't been good at all, but Toronto's gotten some quality performances from Jones and Woll, who (together) have played as much as Samsonov.

 

[AvroArrow]

Jake Oettinger has been *extremely* middling all year. He's ranked 42nd as per Moneypuck in goals saved above expected, which is basically dead average.

Samsonov hasn't been good at all, but Toronto's gotten some quality performances from Jones and Woll, who (together) have played as much as Samsonov.

Sammy has actually been pretty good since being recalled. The stats can be misleading, the defence (Brodie) was atrocious last couple games.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Hahaha now the facts are obnoxious because you’re getting nitpicky about what “best” means.

Are you one of the people that talks about “era adjustment” to justify your hatred?

I’ll say it again. Best goal scoring season in a long time. I guess we’ll say that’s just like, my opinion.

But my opinion is backed up with facts. Facts that I just listed.

And how is my opinion on best goal season since Lemieux in 95/96 not a majority?

Are you using your OPINION on what people are saying to make that statement?

I love the garbage semantics people are using to help them digest that a TML is the best goal scorer in the NHL.

All kinds of stats back that up.

He is the best lol

Yeah, its just your opinion. And you are portraying a minority opinion as a fact. Matthews doesn't need your help propping him up, and he isn't paying you anything to pick arguments online.

Forwards who excel offensively and do very well defensively often rack up a lot of Selke votes. Moreso than forwards who are stellar defensively, but have very little to show for offense. And in a Bergeron-free year where the award is more wide open, that could land him high on the list of Selke candidates.

This is less about whether he's deserving or not - more about how I could see votes playing out.

That is such a shallow way of looking at it, otherwise Crosby who is no slouch defensively would have snagged a Selke in his day. They very much look for the Bergeron mold of a center that plays in all situations, racking up significant PK time and having a major factor on their team's goal differential with insane on ice/off ice stats.

Unless they have a bunch of new people with new criteria voting on the award, I don't know what your basis for this logic is coming from. Matthews will get a handful of votes from media members who are simping for extra access and not much else. Much like Crosby did.

 

[bobholly39]

That is such a shallow way of looking at it, otherwise Crosby who is no slouch defensively would have snagged a Selke in his day. They very much look for the Bergeron mold of a center that plays in all situations, racking up significant PK time and having a major factor on their team's goal differential with insane on ice/off ice stats.

Unless they have a bunch of new people with new criteria voting on the award, I don't know what your basis for this logic is coming from. Matthews will get a handful of votes from media members who are simping for extra access and not much else. Much like Crosby did.

It's funny that you bring up Crosby - when Crosby is who I was thinking of when I made this post.

Crosby was 4th in Selke in 2018-2019 season. Was Crosby the absolute bar none 4th best defensive forward in the entire league that season? I'm a big Crosby supporter, and I can guarantee you the answer is no. Was Crosby however very strong defensively, while also having a great season offensively, and so an easy choice for Selke voters to throw votes too, rather than lesser known 3rd and 4th line "defense only" players? Yup.

I think similarly - Matthews could get a lot of Selke votes this year. I doubt he'd win, but finishing top 5 or so is possible.

 

[Rob Brown]

Yeah, its just your opinion. And you are portraying a minority opinion as a fact. Matthews doesn't need your help propping him up, and he isn't paying you anything to pick arguments online.

Pot kettle, no?

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Pot kettle, no?

A bit of a difference between having a hockey discussion around a player and insulting someone's fandom because they don't agree with you. Have I insulted anyone's fandom on here? Claim they don't like Matthews because they are agreeing with everything I have said?

 

[Rob Brown]

A bit of a difference between having a hockey discussion around a player and insulting someone's fandom because they don't agree with you. Have I insulted anyone's fandom on here? Claim they don't like Matthews because they are agreeing with everything I have said?

You said he's been picking arguments online, which I found a bit rich considering you have been in this thread all day disagreeing and debating with plenty of people. All good, my friend.

 

[authentic]

Yeah, its just your opinion. And you are portraying a minority opinion as a fact. Matthews doesn't need your help propping him up, and he isn't paying you anything to pick arguments online.


That is such a shallow way of looking at it, otherwise Crosby who is no slouch defensively would have snagged a Selke in his day. They very much look for the Bergeron mold of a center that plays in all situations, racking up significant PK time and having a major factor on their team's goal differential with insane on ice/off ice stats.

Unless they have a bunch of new people with new criteria voting on the award, I don't know what your basis for this logic is coming from. Matthews will get a handful of votes from media members who are simping for extra access and not much else. Much like Crosby did.

Matthews is better defensively than Crosby ever was

 

[AvroArrow]

Matthews is better defensively than Crosby ever was

This is why they make fun of us. Just enjoy the talent Matthews please.

 

[authentic]

This is why they make fun of us. Just enjoy the talent Matthews please.

Haha, well you're sadly mistaken if you think Crosby is a better defensive player than Matthews, literally every defensive stat in the world will tell you he's not. I watched Crosby as much or more than the Leafs in his prime, he was without a shadow of a doubt worse than Matthews is defensively.

 

[EquivalentStay]

Haha, well you're sadly mistaken if you think Crosby is a better defensive player than Matthews, literally every defensive stat in the world will tell you he's not. I watched Crosby as much or more than the Leafs in his prime, he was without a shadow of a doubt worse than Matthews is defensively.

Proof people who "watch the games" certainly don't actually watch the games.

 

[authentic]

Proof people who "watch the games" certainly don't actually watch the games.

Agreed, if people think Crosby is better than Matthews defensively. I mean the poster who goes by the name of "Sidney the Kidney" even admitted this in Matthews Hart season.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Matthews stick work is insane. Dude always strips, knocks the puck away almost every shift or at least disrupts the other team in someway. Its crazy. On top of that 69 goals. And 2nd in blocked shots...

 

[Faceboner]

On the topic of matthews vs ovi, matthews has been slightly better but ovi was dominating the scoring race past his prime and is a freak of nature the only variable right now that puts ovi above AM is how well he aged and that was unprecedented not everyone can be as durable and age as well as ovi has that is why he us chasing the record matthews could age well too but it's far from guranteed

 

[Legion34]

It is a combination of advanced stat metrics, eye test, 'feel' I assume you mean relying on Vegas betting odds and what names the media is pushing. All 4 of those players are being pushed by the media, and have the advanced stat metrics to back it up.

I would say the conversation starts with basic statistics, such as GA/60, time spent on the penalty kill and effectiveness killing those penalties, and then a high contribution on the offensive end. Matthews doesn't kill enough penalties, but checks the other boxes.

However when you go into advanced statistics and start looking at his on ice GA vs off ice GA, he falls short in these statistics to the front runners like Barkov and Lowry. Barkov and Lowry's teams rely on them a lot more for their impact on the overall team goal differential. Most have Barkov as a runaway frontrunner for this award because this advanced stat is so coveted.

What media are you talking about?
I drive hours for work every week and hate music.

I listen to 32 thoughts. Dfo rundown. CJ. Marek. Overdrive/first up when actual insiders are on

I have never once heard any of those media mention any of those names. Only staal even makes sense to me.

Barkov and Matthews are the only names I have heard actually mentioned.

 

[Legion34]

It's funny that you bring up Crosby - when Crosby is who I was thinking of when I made this post.

Crosby was 4th in Selke in 2018-2019 season. Was Crosby the absolute bar none 4th best defensive forward in the entire league that season? I'm a big Crosby supporter, and I can guarantee you the answer is no. Was Crosby however very strong defensively, while also having a great season offensively, and so an easy choice for Selke voters to throw votes too, rather than lesser known 3rd and 4th line "defense only" players? Yup.

I think similarly - Matthews could get a lot of Selke votes this year. I doubt he'd win, but finishing top 5 or so is possible.

The selke isn’t the best defensive forward trophy. At least not how it’s voted. You have to be a 2 way player.

Kind of how you can’t win the Norris without great offence.

 

[authentic]

1st in the league for goals by a mile
6th in the league for points
3rd in the league for primary points
3rd in the league for takeaways
3rd in the league for blocked shots by a forward
6th in the league for 5v5 shots against/60 (out of 102 forwards with 1000+ minutes)
54% on the dot

Shots Against:

1. Matthews: 24.04 (2nd)
2. McDavid: 27.15 (3rd)
3. MacKinnon: 28.85 (9th)
4. Kucherov: 30.24 (19th)

Goals Against:

1. Matthews: 2.24 (3rd)
2. MacKinnon: 2.74 (17th)
3. McDavid: 2.76 (18th)
4. Kucherov: 3.47 (29th)

5v5 Goal Differential (and rank out of the 31 NHL forwards with 1100 + minutes):

1. Matthews: 64.13 (1st)
2. MacKinnon: 61.53 (3rd)
3. McDavid: 60.61 (6th)
4. Kucherov: 51.44 (23rd)

And sure not the most time played on the PK but he has the best PPGA/60 on his team...

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

So please spare me with the crap that Matthews isn't an established elite defensive forward in the NHL now or better than Crosby ever was, this is like his 5th season being up there in all these types of stats... I've yet to see Crosby with one single season like this in his career.