Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[sabremike]

I still have no idea why the Sens went out and decided to hire the godawful Travis Green as their coach because that's the thing that's going to sink them. If they had hired someone competent for the position I'd be much higher on them as the pieces are there.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I still have no idea why the Sens went out and decided to hire the godawful Travis Green as their coach because that's the thing that's going to sink them. If they had hired someone competent for the position I'd be much higher on them as the pieces are there.

If players buy into and play the system the coach wants, that also goes a long ways.

 

[Strangle]

Who’s arguing? I’m not saying Monty moving on isn’t a hit, but a “major hit?” How exactly did Toronto get so much better?? Florida still has the overwhelming majority of its Cup winning team in tact.

The leafs defense is probably the best or adjacent to the best it’s been in 20 years. Is it world class? No, but it’s better than it’s been in two decades.

Forwards are world beaters already

And their starting goaltender was so bad last season they had to remove him from the team. So they should be much improved their as well.

Leafs goals for should be about what they were last season and their goals against should be much much lower

That’s how they’ve improved while the other teams in the Atlantic they compete with have gotten worse

 

[Laus723]

The leafs defense is probably the best or adjacent to the best it’s been in 20 years. Is it world class? No, but it’s better than it’s been in two decades.

Forwards are world beaters already

And their starting goaltender was so bad last season they had to remove him from the team. So they should be much improved their as well.

Leafs goals for should be about what they were last season and their goals against should be much much lower

That’s how they’ve improved while the other teams in the Atlantic they compete with have gotten worse

I feel like I’ve heard that before about the D. Yes, Tanev is a great defenseman, but he’s also older. OEL filled in nicely, but he’s not much better than McCabe. The goaltending is Woll and Stolarz, I’ll give you that they’re good, but each have limited starts compared to other goalies in the Division. The forwards have yet to perform in the playoffs, but if they want the President’s, well by all means go ahead. They’re an amazing regular season team. I’ll give em that.

 

[Strangle]

I feel like I’ve heard that before about the D. Yes, Tanev is a great defenseman, but he’s also older. OEL filled in nicely, but he’s not much better than McCabe. The goaltending is Woll and Stolarz, I’ll give you that they’re good, but each have limited starts compared to other goalies in the Division. The forwards have yet to perform in the playoffs, but if they want the President’s, well by all means go ahead. They’re an amazing regular season team. I’ll give em that.

I don’t know if they can win the presidents trophy. I wouldn’t say they could.

But I think, looking at the Atlantic as objectively as I can (not very well, I’m a leaf fan through and through) this is the best chance they’ve had to win the division in this iteration of the team

The playoffs is another discussion all together, but this threa DC is about the regular season divisional standings

 

[Laus723]

I don’t know if they can win the presidents trophy. I wouldn’t say they could.

But I think, looking at the Atlantic as objectively as I can (not very well, I’m a leaf fan through and through) this is the best chance they’ve had to win the division in this iteration of the team

The playoffs is another discussion all together, but this threa DC is about the regular season divisional standings

Fair enough, anything’s possible.

 

[albator71]

I still have no idea why the Sens went out and decided to hire the godawful Travis Green as their coach because that's the thing that's going to sink them. If they had hired someone competent for the position I'd be much higher on them as the pieces are there.

What are you referring to? The same comments were made about Tocchet when he joined Vancouver. Perhaps focus on your team's decision to hire Ruff, who many believe is beyond his prime. Go Sens!

 

[nbwingsfan]

advanced stats wise, Sens goaltending was the second worst in the league. Adding a top 10 goalie immediately turns their biggest weakness into a strength.

Sens had 37 wins last year, and Washington made the playoffs with 40. Ullmark can easily be the difference here, especially in a division where most teams got worse.

Who got worse?

Boston - hell no, as long as Swayman signs

Buffalo- definitely not

Wings- definitely not

Montreal- definitely not

Tampa - maybe, but doubt vasilevsky will be bad again

Leafs - arguably about the same

Florida - sure, but still an Elite team

 

[Satanphonehome]

Leafs goals for should be about what they were last season and their goals against should be much much lower

That’s how they’ve improved while the other teams in the Atlantic they compete with have gotten worse

Seeing this a lot from Leaf fans this year and I think there's a lot of squinting involved

• Squint and you might think Morgan Reilly is a #1 defenceman on a cup-winning team
• Squint and you might think Chris Tanev is a #2
• Squint and you might think Jake McCabe can anchor a 2nd-pair
• Squint and you can ignore how mediocre Oliver Ekman-Larsson has been for years in anything other than a sheltered role.
• Squint and you might think Benoit, Hakanpaa, Lillegren and Timmins represent good blueline depth
• Squint and you might think Woll and Stolarz represents a good duo in net
• Squint and you might think Craig Berube is going to transform the collection of kids and castoffs below the core 4 into the dead-puck era Devils

It's not impossible that some of these plans will work out, but that seems like a lot of squinting.

To this outsider, it really looks the same old Leafs: a good team with hyper-concentrated top 4 talent surrounded by too many questions marks elsewhere.

 

[albator71]

I agreee that Ullmark's numbers may go down but he played well in Buffalo when they were the worst team in the league so I don't expect him to drop off a cliff. A perfect example was the pre-season game against Buffalo. He was peppered with 29 shots and stopped 28 of them. The one goal he let in was screened by one of the Sens D. I realize Buffalo iced all prospects but he still had to be sharp.

Regarding Ottawa, their expected Goals For percentage (xGF%) of 51.88 last season ranked third in the Atlantic Division, trailing only Florida and Toronto. The Senators displayed strong team numbers, but their goaltending was a weak point. With the addition of Ullmark, the Senators have significantly improved their chances of reaching the playoffs.

 

[albator71]

Who got worse?

Boston - hell no, as long as Swayman signs

Buffalo- definitely not

Wings- definitely not

Montreal- definitely not

Tampa - maybe, but doubt vasilevsky will be bad again

Leafs - arguably about the same

Florida - sure, but still an Elite team

The Red Wings seem aged, with players like Tarasenko, Kane, Petry, and Chariot, and their goaltending options are what? Husso, Talbot? It appears the Wings are facing challenges. I concur that Buffalo is a strong team, and while Montreal should improve, they still have significant progress to make. Thus, Buffalo and Ottawa are the teams most likely to reach the playoffs.

 

[Silky Johnson]

as much as people clown on the Sabres for the 13 year Playoff drought thing there isn't really much difference in practice between that and the Wings 8 years or the Sens 7 years and Buffalo has more talent than either of those teams

It is very different, five or six years more. It sounds worse as a percentage. It's 86% longer than the Sens and 63% longer than the wings. That's alot.

 

[Strangle]

Seeing this a lot from Leaf fans this year and I think there's a lot of squinting involved

• Squint and you might think Morgan Reilly is a #1 defenceman on a cup-winning team
• Squint and you might think Chris Tanev is a #2
• Squint and you might think Jake McCabe can anchor a 2nd-pair
• Squint and you can ignore how mediocre Oliver Ekman-Larsson has been for years in anything other than a sheltered role.
• Squint and you might think Benoit, Hakanpaa, Lillegren and Timmins represent good blueline depth
• Squint and you might think Woll and Stolarz represents a good duo in net
• Squint and you might think Craig Berube is going to transform the collection of kids and castoffs below the core 4 into the dead-puck era Devils

It's not impossible that some of these plans will work out, but that seems like a lot of squinting.

To this outsider, it really looks the same old Leafs: a good team with hyper-concentrated top 4 talent surrounded by too many questions marks elsewhere.

This post is so out of touch, the Leafs have been a 100+ point team, and at times a top 5 team in their conference for years at this point.

How much squinting do you need to do to understand that their problems are all around the edges and that’s been the only place to ever improve this team?

Aside from goaltending, the entire team has been fantastic in the regular season. No squinting required.

I have no idea what you’re talking about

 

[albator71]

He came in at the trade deadline. He’s a loss, but not a “major hit,” needs will similarly be addressed at the deadline. I’m not saying we’re going to the Finals again, but I don’t get Leaf fans saying they’re better this year.

I maintain my prediction that Florida will top their division, given their depth at forward positions. Despite the defense suffering from the departures of OEL and Montour, their collective defensive play remains strong. My top three teams are Florida, Boston, and Toronto.

 

[Satanphonehome]

Regarding Ottawa, their expected Goals For percentage (xGF%) of 51.88 last season ranked third in the Atlantic Division, trailing only Florida and Toronto. The Senators displayed strong team numbers, but their goaltending was a weak point. With the addition of Ullmark, the Senators have significantly improved their chances of reaching the playoffs.

I don't think there is any doubt Ullmark is a significant upgrade, maybe the biggest single-position upgrade in the division.

Fans tend to overrate the addition of a single impact player — they just don't seem to make a difference in hockey like they do in other sports — but this one might be justified.

Stutzle will be better. Sanderson should be too. Add in Tkachuk and it gives the team a legitimate core 4.

I think the Sens playoff chances hinge on the 2nd and 3rd layers. I'm not sure they've got useful depth pieces in their 11-14 forward and 5-8 defence slots, and they are going to need more from the Pintos, Greigs, Perrons, Jensens, Chabots and Norrises than they got from those lineup slots last year.

The team felt a little mentally fragile last season, like it didn't entirely believe in itself. A good start , good health and good coaching mean something to every team, but I feel like that's more true for the Senators than most.

The Atlantic is fascinating. The top 4 is not invulnerable, but still good, and not ready to give up their stranglehold without a fight. The bottom 4 have pieces that suggest any could make a move.

Who rises and who falls and when is a complete mystery to me.

 

[Satanphonehome]

Tampa is another one that can go either way.

I mean, you can't argue against Kucherov, Point, Hedman and Vasilevskiy as an elite core 4. Vasi didn't have the best year, but history says don't count him out, and it is hard to say any of those guys won't be at the top of their game again this year.

The thing about the Bolts is how much they relied on their special teams. This team was +23 overall, but -7 5-on-5.

I don't see McDonough, Guentzel and Moser for Stamkos and Sergachev significantly changing their talent base. Maybe they get better 5-on-5 and worse on the PP? And I don't see reason to expect internal improvement anywhere. The first 6 or 8 players are about as good as it gets. And the drop-off after that is pretty dramatic.

I think they're a Kucherov or Hedman injury away from falling out of the playoffs. But as long as Cooper is leading that healthy core, it's hard to see them collapsing this year. A bottom-four team is probably going to need to put up 95 points to push them aside.

 

[nbwingsfan]

The Red Wings seem aged, with players like Tarasenko, Kane, Petry, and Chariot, and their goaltending options are what? Husso, Talbot? It appears the Wings are facing challenges. I concur that Buffalo is a strong team, and while Montreal should improve, they still have significant progress to make. Thus, Buffalo and Ottawa are the teams most likely to reach the playoffs.

None of the players you mentioned outside of Kane are more than depth.

The D is improved
A full season of Kane
Did you see who our goaltending options were last season? Lol

No team outside of Tampa and Florida got worse.

Ottawa got worse everywhere except goaltending

 

[Czechboy]

The Red Wings seem aged, with players like Tarasenko, Kane, Petry, and Chariot, and their goaltending options are what? Husso, Talbot? It appears the Wings are facing challenges. I concur that Buffalo is a strong team, and while Montreal should improve, they still have significant progress to make. Thus, Buffalo and Ottawa are the teams most likely to reach the playoffs.

Don't forget jack Campbell.

Now that my oilers bought him out. I fully expect him to win the Vezina!

Also, agree with your wings views.

 

[RI.B FAN]

I’m not going to sit here and argue with you that montour ‘isn’t a major hit’ just to argue semantics.

Florida, Boston and Tampa are worse team this this and Toronto got better

do you read your stuff before posting? Toronto is better? Slower, yes, better, NO! You don't have a reliable goaltender behind a fair defence.

 

[LightningStrikes]

None of the players you mentioned outside of Kane are more than depth.

The D is improved
A full season of Kane
Did you see who our goaltending options were last season? Lol

No team outside of Tampa and Florida got worse.

Ottawa got worse everywhere except goaltending

I’ll bite. How did Tampa get worse?

Out:
F: Stamkos, Duclaire, Jeannot, Motte
D: Sergachev (missed 48 games last season), De Haan, Dumba

In:
F: Guentzel, Atkinson, Girgensons, Brown
D: McDonagh, Moser, Carlile

 

[NyQuil]

I’ll bite. How did Tampa get worse?

Out: Stamkos, Duclaire, Jeannot, Motte, Sergachev (missed 48 games last season), De Haan, Dumba

In: Guentzel, Atkinson, Girgensons, Brown, McDonagh, Moser, Carlile

Some of those names would be a lot more attractive five years ago.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Some of those names would be a lot more attractive five years ago.

Still better than what we had last season imo. At worst it’s a wash.

 

[Satanphonehome]

It's easy to lump the Sabres and Sens together as the young teams expected to get better that didn't, but they aren't exactly the same.

Rasmus Dahlin — kinda underrated on these boards — might be the best defenceman in the division, or at least in the conversation with Hedman and McAvoy. But outside of him, I think the Sabres are a step behind when it comes to proven core 4 talent.

I think they did a good job improving the identity of their bottom 6 forwards, but where the Sabres are very intriguing to me is in the sheer volume of guys you look at and say "I'd be surprised if that guy isn't going to be better this year": Thompson, Cozens, Tuch, Quinn, Benson, Power, Byram... there just seems to be a lot of untapped talent, with pretty high ceilings.

I see some parallels to where the Devils were under Lindy Ruff two years ago. The biggest question for me is: were last year's Sabres the result of immaturity and coaching — the natural growing pains many young clubs face — or a deeper cultural problem?

A lot of people rolled their eyes at the Ruff selection, but he does seem a good fit for what the team needs, both on the ice and off.

 

[Silky Johnson]

None of the players you mentioned outside of Kane are more than depth.

The D is improved
A full season of Kane
Did you see who our goaltending options were last season? Lol

No team outside of Tampa and Florida got worse.

Ottawa got worse everywhere except goaltending

How have Ottawa got worse at forward?

Norris was out last year and Pinto missed the first half of the season. Not ever having your 2 & 3 centres ever play at the same time is problematic. Especially considering Stutzle had a hand injury all year and could barely shoot.

Perron, Cousins, Amadio add some depth and sandpaper.

Greig and Pinto will have another year of experience. Ostapchuk, Jenik and Gregor will add some depth and competition to the lineup.

Without injury problems the forward group should be much improved.

The loss of Jacob Chychrun should not matter to much because frankly he sucked for the Sens. I also think Nick Jenson being a RD makes for better top 4 balance.

If Chabot can stay healthy, Kleven lives up to expectations & Sanderson takes a step forward the defence will be much better. I also expect them to pick up a D on waivers for depth.

Lots of ifs but this is easily a better constructed and deeper team at all levels

 

[Joe n]

Seeing this a lot from Leaf fans this year and I think there's a lot of squinting involved

• Squint and you might think Morgan Reilly is a #1 defenceman on a cup-winning team
• Squint and you might think Chris Tanev is a #2
• Squint and you might think Jake McCabe can anchor a 2nd-pair
• Squint and you can ignore how mediocre Oliver Ekman-Larsson has been for years in anything other than a sheltered role.
• Squint and you might think Benoit, Hakanpaa, Lillegren and Timmins represent good blueline depth
• Squint and you might think Woll and Stolarz represents a good duo in net
• Squint and you might think Craig Berube is going to transform the collection of kids and castoffs below the core 4 into the dead-puck era Devils

It's not impossible that some of these plans will work out, but that seems like a lot of squinting.

To this outsider, it really looks the same old Leafs: a good team with hyper-concentrated top 4 talent surrounded by too many questions marks elsewhere.

Maybe look at Samsonov's stats from last year. I would probably have been better than him and I can barely move some days.