Regarding Ottawa, their expected Goals For percentage (xGF%) of 51.88 last season ranked third in the Atlantic Division, trailing only Florida and Toronto. The Senators displayed strong team numbers, but their goaltending was a weak point. With the addition of Ullmark, the Senators have significantly improved their chances of reaching the playoffs.
I don't think there is any doubt Ullmark is a significant upgrade, maybe the biggest single-position upgrade in the division.
Fans tend to overrate the addition of a single impact player — they just don't seem to make a difference in hockey like they do in other sports — but this one might be justified.
Stutzle will be better. Sanderson should be too. Add in Tkachuk and it gives the team a legitimate core 4.
I think the Sens playoff chances hinge on the 2nd and 3rd layers. I'm not sure they've got useful depth pieces in their 11-14 forward and 5-8 defence slots, and they are going to need more from the Pintos, Greigs, Perrons, Jensens, Chabots and Norrises than they got from those lineup slots last year.
The team felt a little mentally fragile last season, like it didn't entirely believe in itself. A good start , good health and good coaching mean something to every team, but I feel like that's more true for the Senators than most.
The Atlantic is fascinating. The top 4 is not invulnerable, but still good, and not ready to give up their stranglehold without a fight. The bottom 4 have pieces that suggest any could make a move.
Who rises and who falls and when is a complete mystery to me.