Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[Fatass]

Detroit isn't a "bad" club.

Imo Yzerman has made choices that puts them into the “bad” group with Ottawa, Buffalo and Montreal. These four will be bottom of their division.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

I don't think they are missing the playoffs, I don't think the top 4 in the Atlantic is changing for at least 3 more years.

However I'd be lying to you if I said they were as scary as they weren't even last season.

The safety net that was Ullmark is gone, they got Lindholm but lost Debrusk, I feel like that's a wash up front.

However I do think they got much better on defense.

As long as Swayman is healthy they should be fine.

If Swayman goes down then they might be f***ed.

Lindholm brings significantly more to Boston than DeBrusk and I like DeBrusk.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Let’s say:

1. Toronto
2. Boston
3. Florida
4. Tampa (WC1)
5. Detroit (WC2)
6. Montreal (just on the outside of the playoff picture but in it till the last few games)
7. Buffalo
8. Ottawa

Very difficult to handicap it. I got Buffalo and Ottawa in the basement, but they could also easily be in the playoff race ahead of MTL and Detroit. It’s not easy to predict

Toronto could also easily take a step back and finish 4th or even 5th. The goaltending is very sus and the D is on the older side.

 

[TesseractPrice]

Realistically which of Montreal, Detroit, Buffalo or Ottawa is good enough to knock them out?

Tampa could fall in two seasons because their core players suffered so much abuse in their cup runs. Over 300 games in 3 years will destroy a body. They also always make the playoffs so they don't have long offseasons to nurse their nagging injuries

Thus, in two or three years I'd expect the Wings to overtake the Bolts. If Ullmark remains a solid goalie and re-signs with the Sens, they're a pretty good team too

The Sabres are a very chaotic team so it's hard to say with them. The Habs are coming from farther, but in two years they could already be a really good team too

 

[Sting]

Let’s say:

1. Toronto
2. Boston
3. Florida
4. Tampa (WC1)
5. Detroit (WC2)
6. Montreal (just on the outside of the playoff picture but in it till the last few games)
7. Buffalo
8. Ottawa

Very difficult to handicap it. I got Buffalo and Ottawa in the basement, but they could also easily be in the playoff race ahead of MTL and Detroit. It’s not easy to predict

Toronto could also easily take a step back and finish 4th or even 5th. The goaltending is very sus and the D is on the older side.

I don't think Montral or Buffalo finish above Ottawa. Those two teams have huge question marks. With the moves over the summer (especially Ullmark), I don't think the Sens have as many holes in the lineup.

WC1/2 is going to be between Tampa/Ottawa/Detroit/Washington imo. I think Tampa ultimately takes one of them but WC2 is a big tossup.

 

[Caper Bruins fan]

Doesn’t feel to me like they really needed Zadorov at all. I think they would have been better off using that money to improve the forward group. Lindholm is a good pick up as like a high end 2C/low end 1C and was a positional need but losing Debrusk cancels out some of that. I think stylistically they will miss Debrusk. Ullmark to Korpisalo is also a significant downgrade.



Not sure yet if I agree on the powerplay, but you’re definitely right about McDonagh being likely able to help defensively instead of Sergachev who was definitely overpaid in my eyes as well.

They needed Zadarov on the backend in my opinion. Lindholm and Carlo are big but they are gentle giants , not really physical at all. MacAvoy is the only physical defenceman they have and we saw last year that it took its toll on him . I agree they are thin up front and definitely need another top 6 forward. Assuming they sign Swayman and with the D group they have they should make the playoffs but it’s not looking like they have enough firepower up front for a deep playoff run .

 

[danpantz]

Lindholm brings significantly more to Boston than DeBrusk and I like DeBrusk.

It’s typical hf home team bias. In one post he said the leafs losing Bertuzzi (more goals, more points than Debrusk) and not replacing him won’t affect the Leafs.

But the Bruins losing Debrusk and replacing him with a forward who does way more of what they need is going to be a big loss for them.

Anyone who watched the Bruins centers last year knows they filled a massive hole.

 

[Torontonian]

They needed Zadarov on the backend in my opinion. Lindholm and Carlo are big but they are gentle giants , not really physical at all. MacAvoy is the only physical defenceman they have and we saw last year that it took its toll on him . I agree they are thin up front and definitely need another top 6 forward. Assuming they sign Swayman and with the D group they have they should make the playoffs but it’s not looking like they have enough firepower up front for a deep playoff run .

I generally liked the off-season Boston had. Maybe in years 5-6-7 for Lindholm and Zadorov contract won't be nice, but you're hoping to win within 5 years. Boston D-core is big and mobile, that's the type of D-core needed in the playoffs.

Boston forward group is good enough to be top 3 in the division, and it's a lot easier to add a impactful forward then it is to add a impactful d-man later in the season.

 

[wintersej]

I generally liked the off-season Boston had. Maybe in years 5-6-7 for Lindholm and Zadorov contract won't be nice, but you're hoping to win within 5 years. Boston D-core is big and mobile, that's the type of D-core needed in the playoffs.

Boston forward group is good enough to be top 3 in the division, and it's a lot easier to add a impactful forward then it is to add a impactful d-man later in the season.

Yeah when we get into years 5-7 for Lindholm and Zadorov you are also past Pasta's prime and unless the Bruins get stupid lucky again like with Pasta and McAvoy, the Bruins would likely be heading towards rebuilding finally. Of course, five years is a long time, so maybe they get lucky again. I wouldn't bet on it, but my kid will also be coming into prime sports age then so I am hopeful, lol.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

I don't think Montral or Buffalo finish above Ottawa. Those two teams have huge question marks. With the moves over the summer (especially Ullmark), I don't think the Sens have as many holes in the lineup.

WC1/2 is going to be between Tampa/Ottawa/Detroit/Washington imo. I think Tampa ultimately takes one of them but WC2 is a big tossup.

What are these huge question marks that keep us from competing with Ottawa and Detroit?

 

[ThrowDemTongs]

Who's taking the division? I see Boston at +450, and idk why but I feel like dropping a band on them

 

[Panthaz89]

What are these huge question marks that keep us from competing with Ottawa and Detroit?

idk but compared to the other "bottom" teams I sure like our defensive core a lot more than anyone else....everybody knows our weakness is lacking a top 6 forward without someone breaking out other than that there isn't really any big question marks. I don't really see anyone challenging Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson, and Byram is probably the strongest top 4 that the Sabres have had in a very long time and our bottom pair is alright.

 

[Blowfish]

Yeah when we get into years 5-7 for Lindholm and Zadorov you are also past Pasta's prime and unless the Bruins get stupid lucky again like with Pasta and McAvoy, the Bruins would likely be heading towards rebuilding finally. Of course, five years is a long time, so maybe they get lucky again. I wouldn't bet on it, but my kid will also be coming into prime sports age then so I am hopeful, lol.

I recently read Boston is the tallest/heaviest team in the league. Plus they're the 6th youngest team in the league. Crazy to think the last 10 years many had them as over the hill with weakest prospect pool. Yet they remain competitive and cup challengers. I love the new additions. Going to be a fun season in the East. I'm expecting to see one of habitants senators wings or Sabres make a push this year. A change of scenery is needed at the top. One of Boston TO panthers or bolts could be on the outside. Anything is possible.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Imo Yzerman has made choices that puts them into the “bad” group with Ottawa, Buffalo and Montreal. These four will be bottom of their division.

Detroit was closer to Toronto than Ottawa was to Detroit last season.

 

[Fatass]

Detroit was closer to Toronto than Ottawa was to Detroit last season.

That’s last year. We are predicting this coming season. And I see Detroit as in the bottom four in their division. I see the bottom four finishing:
Ottawa
Buffalo
Detroit
Montreal.

 

[dgibb10]

Assuming Ullmark provides quality goaltending for Ottawa, he is a significantly bigger upgrade than any of the other non playoff teams have made.

Detroit was closer to Toronto than Ottawa was to Detroit last season.

Detroit finished 25th in xGoals differential, Ottawa finished 13th.

Ottawa was tanked by utterly horrific goaltending.

Now, Ottawa's problem this coming year is that they hired an absolute buffoon behind the bench

 

[SUX2BU]

Panthers
Bruins
Leafs
Lightening

Sabres


Senators









Red Wings










Habs

 

[thebestnic]

Panthers
Bruins
Leafs
Lightening

Sabres


Senators









Red Wings











Habs

Not sure why Ottawa and Buffalo are so much higher than the Habs let alone the Red Wings

 

[Sypher04]

Toronto could also easily take a step back and finish 4th or even 5th. The goaltending is very sus and the D is on the older side.

Seems pretty unlikely to me.

The goaltending on paper should be better than the League worst goaltending we got for half of the 2023-24 season (until almost the end of January).

And the defense maybe a bit older but it’s considerably better and more balanced right now than what was here last year.

Assuming reasonable health I’d be shocked if they are not top 3

 

[DapperCam]

No I'm judging based on the moves I saw the bottom 4 teams make.

I don't like most of what Detroit did, except replaceing Perron with Tarasenko but the rest of their moves sucked.

I don't like anything Buffalo did, I don't think Ryan Mclode or Beck Malinstine is going to make a Damn bit of difference.

I don't think replaceing Skinner with Zucker is an upgrade.

If you wanted to you could look at Zucker as the replacement for Olofsson and maybe that's an upgrade but then that means you didn't replace Skinner which still leads to a downgrade.

I like what Ottawa did bringing in Ullmark, Perron and Jensen, although I think Jensen should should have been brought in as an addition rather than a direct replacement for Chychrun but I still like Jensen.

I don't think Ottawa gets in because I still think It's a 4/4 split but if It's 5/3 I could see Ottawa taking that 5th spot.

With Montreal I think the Laine risk is well worth taking but even if he scored 50 this year they aren't making the playoffs.

The reason I don't see the bottom 4 teams and top 4 teams changing is because I don't think the bottom 4 tried hard enough to close the gap.

Skinner is washed dude. Addition by subtraction even if he plays well in Edmonton. He wasn’t playing well here at all.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Detroit finished 25th in xGoals differential, Ottawa finished 13th.

So if Detroit was able to finish with 91 points with that xGoal differential, it would stand to reason that even minimal improvements would make them a strong playoff contender, no?

 

[dgibb10]

So if Detroit was able to finish with 91 points with that xGoal differential, it would stand to reason that even minimal improvements would make them a strong playoff contender, no?

Not really.

Historically it suggests a decline is coming the following year as shooting luck regresses to the mean

 

[Pavels Dog]

Not really.

Historically it suggests a decline is coming the following year as shooting luck regresses to the mean

Could be. I wouldn't necessarily assume xGD to stay static from year to year though with the only variable being sh%. I wish it was that simple, but it rarely is.

 

[dgibb10]

Could be. I wouldn't necessarily assume xGD to stay static from year to year though with the only variable being sh%. I wish it was that simple, but it rarely is.

Detroits other big edge this past year besides excellent shooting was penalty differential. Usually penalty differential is around net 0 for a team, because of how refs game manage.

Detroit had a below average PK, below average PP, and were not good Even Strength. Usually not a great recipe for success

Ottawa is likely the team most poised to make a 22-23 NJD type jump (where NJD went from -60 goaltending to +10 causing a massive swing).

Now, they hired an absolute buffoon as a coach so I expect their analytics to be much worse next year to counteract better goaltending (like how Green had a worse record with terrible analytics than Ruff despite getting some rock solid goaltending after taking over)

 

[NyQuil]

Not sure why Ottawa and Buffalo are so much higher than the Habs let alone the Red Wings

It's amazing how quickly expectations have risen for the Habs this year.