Athletic Has Leafs as 3rd best in contract Values

[Blowfish]

COVID aside no other team spent 50% of the cap on 4 forwards.
Dubas gambled on an event that had yet to take place and it has been hurting our chance of building a winning team.
He backed himself into a corner because Tavares is the player that is not needed on the Leafs and he is unmovable. This is solely on Dubas and nothing else.

The leafs future was bright ... Dubas signing Tavares what killed the team forcing big ass contracts for Marner/Matthews and preventing the opportunity to fill the roster with quality players at D and goalie positions. It was a brutal mistake that cost the leafs a golden opportunity.

 

[Racer88]

The leafs future was bright ... Dubas signing Tavares what killed the team forcing big ass contracts for Marner/Matthews and preventing the opportunity to fill the roster with quality players at D and goalie positions. It was a brutal mistake that cost the leafs a golden opportunity.

I agree100%. Tavares was absolutely the wrong move

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dubas signing Tavares what killed the team forcing big ass contracts for Marner/Matthews and preventing the opportunity to fill the roster with quality players at D and goalie positions.

The Tavares contract had nothing to do with the Matthews/Marner contracts, we have not been prevented from filling our D with quality players and building one of the top defensive teams in the league despite a global pandemic inducing an unexpected flat cap, and we haven't really been prevented from signing any goalies either other than I guess Bobrovsky, which was the only goalie signing over 6m since Tavares. I'm not sure the way overpaid guy that Florida is desperately trying to dump not even halfway into it is the biggest loss.

 

[conFABulator]

COVID aside no other team spent 50% of the cap on 4 forwards.
Dubas gambled on an event that had yet to take place and it has been hurting our chance of building a winning team.
He backed himself into a corner because Tavares is the player that is not needed on the Leafs and he is unmovable. This is solely on Dubas and nothing else.

How does it make sense to leave Covid out of a discussion of the past four years of (Dubas') performance?

If the cap had increased as everyone forcasted that it was going to we would be at least $90M, maybe as high as $95M right now.

We would not be at 4 = 50%...it would 4 = 43% and other teams would have more higher paid players. We locked our guys up and signed JT right before a once in a lifetime pandemic.

Is there a team in the NHL that has a better top four forwards than the Leafs? Just going by points, our core 4 all finished in the top 44 in the league. We also had two of them in the top 11 in Selke voting. Should there be a team that is spending more of their top four forwards than the Leafs?

If the argument is that the mix and balance isn't right...maybe. Did we miss out on some UFA goalie or D man that we could have signed if we didn't have so much tied up in the core 4? Markstrom maybe? Pietrangelo? We had Andersen and Markstrom was not a clear cut upgrade. We were in on Pietrangelo.

It's reasonable to believe that if the cap kept progressing we could have signed one or both of those guys...or maybe we keep Andersen and Campbell...or we keep Hyman. How different does this team look with Markstrom, Hyman and Pietrangelo? We would be under the cap.

Who knows what would have happened? But to ignore Covid in an assessment of contracts signed just before Covid makes zero sense to me.

 

[andora]

So do gms sign players with future cap raising projections factored into the outlook or do they sign players at the % of the cap that day and accept that number because on a coin flip the cap may not rise

 

[conFABulator]

So do gms sign players with future cap raising projections factored into the outlook or do they sign players at the % of the cap that day and accept that number because on a coin flip the cap may not rise

They absolutely take future cap into consideration. That is what made the unforseen flat cap.

Every business takes revenue forecasts into consideration when making budgetary (expense) commitments.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

The leafs future was bright ... Dubas signing Tavares what killed the team forcing big ass contracts for Marner/Matthews and preventing the opportunity to fill the roster with quality players at D and goalie positions. It was a brutal mistake that cost the leafs a golden opportunity.

I agree that the Tavares signing is the big one that prevents us from having quality depth in certain areas but this take isn't completely accurate. That signing hadn't stopped us from adding Brodie, Muzzin and Gio who were all quality top 4 d men and are a massive upgrades on who we had before. Gio doing us a huge solid cap wise I will add though.

As far as goaltending goes, the decision to go with Sparks over Mac was the wrong decision from day 1. I've always said that. The Mrazek signing turned out horrible as the guy couldn't stay healthy and that was something we knew when we signed him which should've prevented us from signing him to 3 yrs. We should've signed him to a 1 yr show me deal. As far as this offseason goes, there wasn't any clear cut upgrades. Every option out there would've come with some type of risk or question marks, so I don't know who you wanted Dubas to go for. There is only about 5 or 6 goalies in the League who are considered in the elite category and they aren't available. No one we would've signed are better than the likes of Vasi, Shesterkin, Hellebuyck, Sarors etc. so it doesn't matter.

 

[conFABulator]

I agree that the Tavares signing is the big one that prevents us from having quality depth in certain areas but this take isn't completely accurate. That signing hadn't stopped us from adding Brodie, Muzzin and Gio who were all quality top 4 d men and are a massive upgrades on who we had before. Gio doing us a huge solid cap wise I will add though.

As far as goaltending goes, the decision to go with Sparks over Mac was the wrong decision from day 1. I've always said that. The Mrazek signing turned out horrible as the guy couldn't stay healthy and that was something we knew when we signed him which should've prevented us from signing him to 3 yrs. We should've signed him to a 1 yr show me deal. As far as this offseason goes, there wasn't any clear cut upgrades. Every option out there would've come with some type of risk or question marks, so I don't know who you wanted Dubas to go for. There is only about 5 or 6 goalies in the League who are considered in the elite category and they aren't available. No one we would've signed are better than the likes of Vasi, Shesterkin, Hellebuyck, Sarors etc. so it doesn't matter.

Obviously, the Mrazek signing didn't work out. We felt we needed a goalie to share the load with Campbell and based on JC's mid season swoon, we probably weren't wrong.

What UFA goalies that switched teams that summer would have been a better signing at the time? The Mrazek deal was pretty low AAV and pretty short term compared to the others that signed (Grubauer, Ullmark, Bernier Andersen, etc). Maybe you could say that Halak or Raanta or Holtby would have been wiser, but who thought that at the time?

I am sure the thinking was that Mrazek had more upside and we got him at a good deal, worst case scenario we could disappear that contract. We did and it only cost us 13 spots on the draft or whatever.

I don't think we could have got him on a one year show me deal based on what the others went for.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Obviously, the Mrazek signing didn't work out. We felt we needed a goalie to share the load with Campbell and based on JC's mid season swoon, we probably weren't wrong.

What UFA goalies that switched teams that summer would have been a better signing at the time? The Mrazek deal was pretty low AAV and pretty short term compared to the others that signed (Grubauer, Ullmark, Bernier Andersen, etc). Maybe you could say that Halak or Raanta or Holtby would have been wiser, but who thought that at the time?

I am sure the thinking was that Mrazek had more upside and we got him at a good deal, worst case scenario we could disappear that contract. We did and it only cost us 13 spots on the draft or whatever.

I don't think we could have got him on a one year show me deal based on what the others went for.

Agreed. Grubauer is the only guy there that I would've thought to be a half decent starter. Those choices all had the same amount of question marks and some risk as well. Also none are guys that are gonna beat out the elite goalies I mentioned.

There were a lot of posters here who thought Mrazek's aav was too high. I wasn't one of them. 5M is the average AAV for starters and Mrazek has always been a tandem guy and not necessarily just a backup. My issue was the term just because of his injury history, which turned out to be a bad gamble.

We need to have a homegrown goalie come up. That's pretty much the only way we are going to get an elite goalie. Teams don't just give them up.

 

[conFABulator]

Agreed. Grubauer is the only guy there that I would've thought to be a half decent starter. Those choices all had the same amount of question marks and some risk as well. Also none are guys that are gonna beat out the elite goalies I mentioned.

There were a lot of posters here who thought Mrazek's aav was too high. I wasn't one of them. 5M is the average AAV for starters and Mrazek has always been a tandem guy and not necessarily just a backup. My issue was the term just because of his injury history, which turned out to be a bad gamble.

We need to have a homegrown goalie come up. That's pretty much the only way we are going to get an elite goalie. Teams don't just give them up.

Agreed we need a homegrown goalie...I am not sure how our quantity approach will work out, but we have a lot of lottery tickets below the NHL.

I didn't like the Mrazek term, but that was probably required to keep AAV down which is important for a cap team. They thought they could unload him if they had to and they did and not too much cost.

...and Grubauer got way too much term and dollars.

 

[Racer88]

How does it make sense to leave Covid out of a discussion of the past four years of (Dubas') performance?

If the cap had increased as everyone forcasted that it was going to we would be at least $90M, maybe as high as $95M right now.

We would not be at 4 = 50%...it would 4 = 43% and other teams would have more higher paid players. We locked our guys up and signed JT right before a once in a lifetime pandemic.

Is there a team in the NHL that has a better top four forwards than the Leafs? Just going by points, our core 4 all finished in the top 44 in the league. We also had two of them in the top 11 in Selke voting. Should there be a team that is spending more of their top four forwards than the Leafs?

If the argument is that the mix and balance isn't right...maybe. Did we miss out on some UFA goalie or D man that we could have signed if we didn't have so much tied up in the core 4? Markstrom maybe? Pietrangelo? We had Andersen and Markstrom was not a clear cut upgrade. We were in on Pietrangelo.

It's reasonable to believe that if the cap kept progressing we could have signed one or both of those guys...or maybe we keep Andersen and Campbell...or we keep Hyman. How different does this team look with Markstrom, Hyman and Pietrangelo? We would be under the cap.

Who knows what would have happened? But to ignore Covid in an assessment of contracts signed just before Covid makes zero sense to me.

My point stands. Dubas is the only GM that bet on 4 forwards eating 50% of the cap.
Good business people don’t bet everything on projected revenue increases especially increases that they have zero control over..

 

[conFABulator]

My point stands. Dubas is the only GM that bet on 4 forwards eating 50% of the cap.
Good business people don’t bet everything on projected revenue increases especially increases that they have zero control over..

Except his bet was they would be eating 40-45% of this cap. How can you not take that into account when describing the "bet" he made.

Bad bet? Can you name a team with four top forwards as good as the Leafs?

If the cap had gone up as planned (prior to a global pandemic) would this team look good with that core four plus say Markstrom, Pietrangelo and Hyman? That is likely the bet he was making.

 

[andora]

Except his bet was they would be eating 40-45% of this cap. How can you not take that into account when describing the "bet" he made.

Bad bet? Can you name a team with four top forwards as good as the Leafs?

If the cap had gone up as planned (prior to a global pandemic) would this team look good with that core four plus say Markstrom, Pietrangelo and Hyman? That is likely the bet he was making.

There are a handful of teams out there with top 4 groups on par with this.. maybe not as individuals but as mixtures and groups. Some can be argued better groups atleast in my opinion

I do agree he was planning for the cap to increase

 

[conFABulator]

There are a handful of teams out there with top 4 groups on par with this.. maybe not as individuals but as mixtures and groups. Some can be argued better groups atleast in my opinion

I do agree he was planning for the cap to increase

Not to be argumentative, but a legitimate question. What teams have top fours that rival ours?

All four of ours were top 44 in league scoring, two C are great on faceoffs and two of our four finished top 11 in Selke voting.

I really don't see any obvious team that can claim to be as strong as our top 4.

 

[Dekes For Days]

...and Grubauer got way too much term and dollars.

And then he went on to be the worst goalie in the league this past season, with a -33.7 GSAx, which just goes to show how risky it is to invest significant money/term into UFA goalies.

What teams have top fours that rival ours?

None. I'm having a hard time thinking of a team in the entire cap era that had top-4 forwards better than ours.

 

[Racer88]

Except his bet was they would be eating 40-45% of this cap. How can you not take that into account when describing the "bet" he made.

Bad bet? Can you name a team with four top forwards as good as the Leafs?

If the cap had gone up as planned (prior to a global pandemic) would this team look good with that core four plus say Markstrom, Pietrangelo and Hyman? That is likely the bet he was making.

Can you name any team that has lot first round 6 years in a row. If Dubas was going to bet everything on a future event he should have spread it out amongst forward defence and goalie but he did not

And then he went on to be the worst goalie in the league this past season, with a -33.7 GSAx, which just goes to show how risky it is to invest significant money/term into UFA goalies.

None. I'm having a hard time thinking of a team in the entire cap era that had top-4 forwards better than ours.

Yet we still have no playoff success with this high end top 4

 

[conFABulator]

Can you name any team that has lot first round 6 years in a row.

Lost in the first round? No, I am not sure if that has happened before and seems like a question constructed only to make this current Leafs group look epicly bad.

What if you asked it this way; can you name a team that failed to get into the second round six years in a row? Or four years in a row (Dubas tenure as GM)?

Then the answer would be: sure, lots of times...

How about Colorado under Sakic? They went five years without getting to the second round. In fact, they won a grand total of five playoff games over that period.

Sakic's first year Avalanche team had MacKinnon, Landeskog, Duchene, O'Rielly, Tanguay, Iginla, Barrie, E. Johnson, and Varlamov. They added Rantanen early on in that stretch also.

It took patience to get it right in Colorado. Should they have fired Sakic after those first four or five years? In year six they finally won a round, one round.

 

[Notsince67]

Can you name any team that has lot first round 6 years in a row.

Only 6 teams in the league have been in the playoffs for the last 6 years in a row.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yet we still have no playoff success with this high end top 4

Which has nothing to do with anything I said. Having top end players doesn't guarantee you a cup. Nothing guarantees you a cup. We know we lost. We've heard it 10 billion times. It happened. It's over and done with. It's time to move on and look forward instead of dwelling in the past and blaming the wrong things out of anger instead of reason.

 

[andora]

Not to be argumentative, but a legitimate question. What teams have top fours that rival ours?

As groups and mixes of players and balance just in my opinion

I think colorado with mackinnon landeskog rantanen and nichushkin

I think tampa with stamkos kucherov point and cirelli

I think mcdavid has now shown what he can carry so add draisaitl kane hyman to the best player in the world

I just went off the cuff but as collective 4 man groups i think these are on par.

 

[conFABulator]

As groups and mixes of players and balance just in my opinion

I think colorado with mackinnon landeskog rantanen and nichushkin

I think tampa with stamkos kucherov point and cirelli

I think mcdavid has now shown what he can carry so add draisaitl kane hyman to the best player in the world

I just went off the cuff but as collective 4 man groups i think these are on par.

Thanks, those were the same off the cuff ones I came up with...I am not sure about Edmonton...Hyman is a pretty big drop off and let's see what Kane can sustain.

The other two teams have won the past three Stanley Cups...pretty good company to be in.

 

[andora]

Thanks, those were the same off the cuff ones I came up with...I am not sure about Edmonton...Hyman is a pretty big drop off and let's see what Kane can sustain.

The other two teams have won the past three Stanley Cups...pretty good company to be in.

Edmonton is simply the mcdavid factor after we just watched what he did.. i felt i had to include them

There are also some groups that are comiing up behind us a few years a way - i hope this group can collectively succeed i just worry there isnt enough diversity in style break through

 

[conFABulator]

Edmonton is simply the mcdavid factor after we just watched what he did.. i felt i had to include them

There are also some groups that are comiing up behind us a few years a way - i hope this group can collectively succeed i just worry there isnt enough diversity in style break through

Agreed.

I don't think we will have the best group of four forwards forever or for long. I am just pointing out that if we are allocating so much money to them at least it is for the right group.

 

[andora]

Agreed.

I don't think we will have the best group of four forwards forever or for long. I am just pointing out that if we are allocating so much money to them at least it is for the right group.

Fair enough

Out of personal preference i would prefer a different styled player in nylanders spot like a landeskog of course.. or if nylander could start to play like kucherov when he is in dick mode

But those things arent really attainable unless they are homegrown or you get a young player via trade you have scouted to be such and others havent

 

[conFABulator]

Edmonton is simply the mcdavid factor after we just watched what he did.. i felt i had to include them

There are also some groups that are comiing up behind us a few years a way - i hope this group can collectively succeed i just worry there isnt enough diversity in style break through

Agreed.

I don't think we will have the best group of four forwards forever or for long. I am just pointing out that if we are allocating so much money to them at least it is for the right group.