Athletic Has Leafs as 3rd best in contract Values

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No team was ever going to sign 3 forwards to 10.9M+ contracts.

That was a uniquely Dubas experience that has never been proven to result in anything more than 4 consecutive first round playoff / play-in losses.

Covid didn't change that because none of those most-current contracts have even played a game yet.

All of those losses happened already.

It failed.

I really dont care whos running the team and covid just killed cap teams in general. Thats undeniable. The Leafs got hit harder than most due to timing of the signings.

.....and the Leafs have 2nd best record in the league since Keefe took over and the 20th ranked team save %. When things got tight in the playoffs, the goaltending became even more exposed. Arnt you getting sick of having the 2nd best goalie in playoff series? The fact the Leafs made a play for the guy with legit playoff success and 2 rings might be the right one.

Lets see how it plays out.
 
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I really dont care whos running the team and covid just killed cap teams in general. Thats undeniable. The Leafs got hit harder than most due to timing of the signings.

.....and the Leafs have 2nd best record in the league since Keefe took over and the 20th ranked team save %. When things got tight in the playoffs, the goaltending became even more exposed. Arnt you getting sick of having the 2nd best goalie in playoff series? The fact the Leafs made a play for the guy with legit playoff success and 2 rings might be the right one.

Lets see how it plays out.

The Leafs haven't won a round.

And the pandemic killed all teams.

Yes, let's see how it continues to play out.

Hoping for a round, myself.

Too bad Mrazek isn't our goalie anymore though, right?

Mrazek was a star that had to be traded for a 1st round pick?

Psssh, yeah that was quite possibly the worst move made in recent time for the Leafs, worse than Marleau.

Man, what a terrible goalie he was and we let him go for a Vezina candidate.

Yikes, advanced stats just don't tell the story now do they?

Should probably stop trying to...
 
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I fail to see what Tkachuk signed for this year has to do with the Leafs losing to the Columbus Blue Jackets in a play-in series?

Maybe my advance stats are sharpened enough?



Using the same stats you used comparing Mrazek to Andersen last year (you said Mrazek was better)..

What do those same stats say about Campbell to Murray?

Curious..

Kind of hoping they praise / tilt towards Campbell this go-around :laugh:

Mrazek had to be traded for a 1st round pick and Andresen got Vezina nominations remember..

Imagine using this kind of analysis and being that wrong about the goalies...

The consequences are huge.

I didnt say Mrazek was better. He was better.

Campbell also played in front of a waaaaaay better defensive team than Murray and Murray was better than Campbell last season in more than a few areas.

My position is that we dont know what we have until games get played and health is the biggest factor. You already have your mind made up it seems.
 
I didnt say Mrazek was better. He was better.

Campbell also played in front of a waaaaaay better defensive team than Murray and Murray was better than Campbell last season in more than a few areas.

My position is that we dont know what we have until games get played and health is the biggest factor. You already have your mind made up it seems.

You pretty definitively stated Mrazek is a better goalie than Freddie.

Using advanced goalie stats.

What do those same one's say about Campbell vs Murray?

Be consistent in your methodology.

I'm very curious to see what the cutting-edge of stats has to say about these sorts of things.

Many others would like to read it too, surely.
 
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You pretty definitively stated Mrazek is a better goalie than Freddie.

Using advanced goalie stats.

What do those same one's say?

Be consistent in your methodology.

He was going into last season...not even using advanced stats.

That hasnt changed.

Mrazek had a .923

Campbell had a .921
Hutch had a .919
Freddie had an .895

Thats not advanced. Freddy was probably the worst starter in the league.

He finally got healthy for a while and put up a .922 this season before injuries killed his year again. Mrazeks season basically got killed in the firsr game when he tore his groin.

Did you think Freddy was the better goalie going into the season? What were your reasons? They would have to be a bit of a leap of faith right? Your passion on this is interesting.
 
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He was going into last season...not even using advanced stats.

That hasnt changed.

Mrazek had a .923

Campbell had a .921
Hutch had a .919
Freddie had an .895

Thats not advanced. Freddy was probably the worst starter in the league.

He finally got healthy for a while and put up a .922 this season before injuries killed his year again. Mrazeks season basically got killed in the firsr game when he tore his groin.

Did you think Freddy was the better goalie going into the season? What were your reasons? They would have to be a bit of a leap of faith right? Your passion on this is interesting.

I asked for the stats about Murray / Campbell using the same methodology you used for Freddie / Mrazek.

You were obviously very wrong about the later, and I'd like to know what that same framework says about the new coming / going.

We're not talking about Freddie / Mrazek anymore, we know what happened there.

I'm not the one making ridiculous statements and posts using these blog stats now am I? It's kind of you that does that. Don't ask me any questions.

Freddie was a Vezina candidate and Mrazek needed a 1st to begone from the Leafs.

Use it again but with the new guys.
 
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Hey, Last years model had the Stanley cup Champs first and the President trophy winners 2nd. 7 of the listed top 10 teams eventually finished in the top 10 in the league.

Considering every model out there got the Isles and Kraken wrong and the Knights were decimated by injury, thats OK isnt it?

Top 10 misses by %
21-22 40%
20-21 30%
19-20 40%

Additionally every year he's had at least one team a year in the top 10 that was absolutely atrocious

Kraken
Jackets
His entire bottom 3 in 2019

I don't know if that really makes his model that reliable. I wonder how Vegas does with their odds in comparison.

If one of the posts above is true and he doesn't consider goaltending then that's a mistake imo. It's a massive part of the game even if people want to act like it's luck for whatever reason
 
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I really dont care whos running the team and covid just killed cap teams in general. Thats undeniable. The Leafs got hit harder than most due to timing of the signings.

.....and the Leafs have 2nd best record in the league since Keefe took over and the 20th ranked team save %. When things got tight in the playoffs, the goaltending became even more exposed. Arnt you getting sick of having the 2nd best goalie in playoff series? The fact the Leafs made a play for the guy with legit playoff success and 2 rings might be the right one.

Lets see how it plays out.

My issue is that we were dumping dudes pre pandemic as well.

Maybe it goes up with no pandemic but it's not like we weren't getting rid of people before it even began.

Covid becomes more of an issue now and when AMs contract comes up because we have basically bought 0 years of value with that deal. I don't think it was getting raised that much before the expansion fee and new TV deal this year anyways however
 
So the solution is..., let's pick up the worst goaltending tandem the team has ever seen since the Matthews era began in Toronto!!
You don't know that that's true, and I assume that the idea was picking up a 2 time cup winner that has performed at a high level in precisely the critical moments that our goalies have not.
How did Covid "screw" the Leafs over any different than any other team in the league spending to the cap?!
Why do you believe this disproportionately affected ONE team in the entire NHL?!
It affected all teams to varying degrees. It had a bigger than average impact on the Leafs because we had an above average amount of our cap locked into pre-covid prices recently signed under the cap it stagnated at.
Mrazek had to be traded for a 1st round pick
Actually, 13 relatively negligible draft slots.
I'm not the one making ridiculous statements and posts
You are actually.
using these blog stats
"Blog stats" don't exist, and SV% definitely wouldn't be one if they did exist.
Don't ask me any questions.
Now there's a red flag if I've ever seen one. :laugh:
 
I asked for the stats about Murray / Campbell using the same methodology you used for Freddie / Mrazek.

You were obviously very wrong about the later, and I'd like to know what that same framework says about the new coming / going.

We're not talking about Freddie / Mrazek anymore, we know what happened there.

I'm not the one making ridiculous statements and posts using these blog stats now am I? It's kind of you that does that. Don't ask me any questions.

Freddie was a Vezina candidate and Mrazek needed a 1st to begone from the Leafs.

Use it again but with the new guys.

I'm trying to remember what I wrote then but I'm pretty sure I didnt go that deep into advanced stats as I didnt have to. Mrazek had a better save% last year with the Canes than Andersen did this year with the Canes.


When it comes to Murray/Campbell, I'll apply "GSAA"(which I probably used) and one I probably didnt use, the most popular for analytics "GSAx"(which is more in depth). I'll list the rankings out of all 77 goalies with at least 300 minutes played.


GSAA:
Campbell: +7.57 (16th out of 77)
Murray: +0.8 (37th out of 77)

Campbell fares well here but Murray is still above average.

GSAx:
Campbell: -7.96 (59th out of 77) (noted comparables: Jones, Samsonov, Anderson)
Murray: +3.79 (22nd out of 77) (noted comparables: Varlamov, Jarry, Allen)

Once shot quality is more heavily factored in, the sheer difference in team D exposes just how easy a time Campbell had in net compared to Murray (who was one of the least sheltered keepers in the league last season). It's going to be interesting how Campbell fares with a team that gives up more of the type of chances he has problems with in the Oilers.

Im actually not as massive a fan of goalie analytics as others are as save% usually does a fine job in most cases (usually looking at goalies on the same team most of the time too) but it certainly has its uses when comparing a goalie on one of the worst defensive teams to one on one of the better ones for sure. Even then we should all be sitting back and waiting to see how new keepers gel with their teams.

You can keep calling me wrong all you want to but predicting Andersen was better than Mrazek before the last season is not far off from predicting Mrazek will be better than Andersen this season.....and Im pretty sure I left the door open to Andersen being better with a fresh team if he stays healthy. Like I said before, I discounted just how bad injuries had hurt him the previous 2 seasons and with him suffering yet another major injury, I'd be a bit worried if I were the Canes. Andersen is soon to be 33 and has been injury riddled for 3 year now. Like us, they have been dying for a steady keeper for years.
 
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I'm trying to remember what I wrote then but I'm pretty sure I didnt go that deep into advanced stats as I didnt have to. Mrazek had a better save% last year with the Canes than Andersen did this year with the Canes.

Using those years.

Mrazek .923 over 12 games played
Anderson .922 over 52 games played.

That’s your argument, lol.
 
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Using those years.

Mrazek .923 over 12 games played
Anderson .922 over 52 games played.

That’s your argument, lol.

My argument was way more nuanced than that of course but you do you.

It was Mrazek's .923 over 12 games (with great underlying numbers) vs. Andersen's .895 over 24 games (with some of the worst numbers in hockey) that was the comparison (and also with Campbell and Hutch putting up .920s on the same team behind the same D)

Carolina banked on Andersen staying healthy and were right for 4/5's of the season....which ended in disaster for him.

Maybe he'll be able to stay healthy for his final year and maybe Mrazek will do the same (after a season that saw him blow out his groin in the first game and reinjure it multiple times)
 
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My argument was way more nuanced than that of course but you do you.

It was Mrazek's .923 over 12 games (with great underlying numbers) vs. Andersen's .895 over 24 games (with some of the worst numbers in hockey) that was the comparison (and also with Campbell and Hutch putting up .920s on the same team behind the same D)

Carolina banked on Andersen staying healthy and were right for 4/5's of the season....which ended in disaster for him.

Maybe he'll be able to stay healthy for his final year and maybe Mrazek will do the same (after a season that saw him blow out his groin in the first game and reinjure it multiple times)
Sure if you want to cherry pick some games in the middle for Anderson. Lol.

Anderson also played a half season more of games, and basically the same save %.
Those are the facts, for the year.

You
Mrazek had a better save% last year with the Canes than Andersen did this year with the Canes.

So cherry picking and moving goalposts now.
 
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Sure if you want to cherry pick some games in the middle for Anderson. Lol.

Anderson also played a half season more of games, and basically the same save %.
Those are the facts, for the year.

You
Mrazek had a better save% last year with the Canes than Andersen did this year with the Canes.

So cherry picking and moving goalposts now.

Again more bad faith stuff from you.

The dude kept whining about how well Andersen did so I just threw out the fact Mrazek had roughly the same save% on the same team. I know Mrazek was hurt and only played 12 games but he still put up a .923. Andersen had near the worse numbers in the league and had regressed for 3 years. I'm guessing the fact Andersen played double the games the previous year doesnt apply anymore? Stop reaching.

Cherry picking and moving the goalposts is what is going to happen if the new keepers actually do well around here (and the bars not set that high TBH). Some people are so stupidly rigid in their pre-season predictions of failure and expectations pushed so low that they are setting themselves up for embaraasment. Just look at all the ludicrous stuff posted by half the board concerning the Leafs (including prominent posters around here). The insane "will the Leafs make the playoffs" takes from last year should have them eating crow for months.....and yet few if any posters even acknowledge it when it is brought up.....just gonna move on and continue with awful opinionated takes, claim victory on hits and ignore misses.

Meanwhile, I get aggressive posters going after me for making a logical argument while also acknowledging Andersen could turn things around on a new team. The criticism of that has little to do with the substance of what I wrote but more of a desperate longing to attack anyone that would try to defend in even small ways the Leafs, or Dubas or Keefe or Shanahan or whatever the object of your tribal rage at some level, especially after the fact.

I was just looking at the numbers (which are not always correct of course).

I mean, I had no clue Shesterkin would turn into the next Hasek this season but who did? Goalies are voodoo, especially when taking injuries into account.
 
It is clearly not true, because we just went over how all these key goals were scored by players we could afford with our cap allocation.

That's what we've been doing, through efficient UFA signings, signing overseas guys, signing non-drafted guys, building back up our prospect pool, etc. Our best players just completed their age 24 season, and are likely to be here performing at a high level for the next decade, so let's stop panicking like we've got a closing window.

Considering how little of the NHL's history the cap has been around, and the fact that for a lot of that time, the cap was rising significantly and there were back-diving deals artificially lowering top-end cap hits, and the incredibly unique situation it is to have 4Fs worth signing to that much in the first place, this doesn't really mean anything or say anything about our ability to win. Everything hasn't happened until it has. Teams win with all kinds of different cap allocations, builds, play styles, etc., and varying levels of dead/wasted cap. You could find some random, unique quirk for any winning team, but it didn't prevent them from winning.

You don't just "go get" top tier goalies. They don't get traded.

We've made 35 picks since Dubas took over (out of a default 35 picks), and our prospect pool has gotten exponentially better. The reason we don't have much ELC depth on our roster 2018-2022 has nothing to do with cap allocation. It's because the picks that would be helping an NHL roster in 2018-2022 would be picks made in 2014-2017, and our drafting during that time was not good. The future looks much better in this regard.

Actually, no it wasn't. The cap was supposed to be rising rapidly in the upcoming years, and while Marner was clearly an upper-echelon talent, he ended up putting up one of the best pre-signing ELC seasons ever. Tavares took up the cap space of players that were departing after the 2017-2018 season, not Marleau's cap space.

Also, carrying significant amounts of open or dead cap and making our team worse during a competitive phase is not an option, whether we had Tavares or not. That's way more stupid than trading away what would have been a late 1st in order to actually utilize our cap space and not put ourselves at a significant competitive disadvantage.

Lou signed that contract knowing the 3rd year would be extremely problematic, but he didn't care because he wouldn't be GM anymore. The consequences of that contract are on him. And again, the sequence of events that led to that pick being 13th overall were abnormal and caused by a rule change post-trade. We don't know who we would have picked, and even if we had picked Jarvis, he wouldn't have done anything in 3 of the 4 years, and exchanging Tavares for him would have made us worse off in all 4 years.
I think most people in hindsight would take Kadri+ Jarvis over the last few years at less than half of Tavares' caphit. Would open up 5m+ in cap over the last few years and set the team up better for the future.

It does seem like the Marleau move and Tavares signing was a misread by Dubas. You said it's not an option to have 6m of 'dead cap' for a year of Marleau but the leafs failed to make the playoffs in 2020. So it was an option (look at teams like Colorado and TB who drafted Makar and Drouin.. who they turned into Sergachev).

Dubas didn't want to take a step back and he spent significant futures to try not to but ignored the lame duck coach and underlying issues.

As for your draft pick analogy Dubas has had a good number of picks but you can't claim that they haven't lost significant draft capital. It would be like exchanging a hundred dollar bill for two twenties. According to your logic, you've gained capital. You now have 2 assets rather than one. But that isn't the way money or draft picks work.

Reading through the post it seems like you are doing backflips to justify moves that simply weren't correct in hindsight. The results speak for themselves.
 
I guess that didn't work out as expected for you.

Matthewes A+
Marner A
Nylander B
Tavares C+

How does Geordano only get an A and not an A+???

It is an A+ in reality. If I ranked them it would be...

Matthews A
Nylander A-
Marner B-
Tavares C+

I don't really think we have an A+ contract TBH. And anything under B- probably isn't worth signing IMHO, it means you overpaid but other teams were willing to pay that or more.
 
I really dont care whos running the team and covid just killed cap teams in general. Thats undeniable. The Leafs got hit harder than most due to timing of the signings.

.....and the Leafs have 2nd best record in the league since Keefe took over and the 20th ranked team save %. When things got tight in the playoffs, the goaltending became even more exposed. Arnt you getting sick of having the 2nd best goalie in playoff series? The fact the Leafs made a play for the guy with legit playoff success and 2 rings might be the right one.

Lets see how it plays out.

The Leafs got hit by their lack of foresight. They always overpay for over the hill talent, it's their thing at this point. They trade away good D's too soon, have issues developing tenders and overpay old guys.
 
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I will always say this..... We as well as other teams got screwed by the FLAT CAP of covid and it's implications. It's not an excuse, it's the truth. They are doing the best they can to figure it out... end of story really. We are good, we have a chance (not that I think we're winning anything next year). Just the cards you are dealt type situation.
 
COVID aside no other team spent 50% of the cap on 4 forwards.
Dubas gambled on an event that had yet to take place and it has been hurting our chance of building a winning team.
He backed himself into a corner because Tavares is the player that is not needed on the Leafs and he is unmovable. This is solely on Dubas and nothing else.
 
I think most people in hindsight would take Kadri+ Jarvis over the last few years at less than half of Tavares' caphit.
Even putting aside your game of captain hindsight, that would have made us worse through every year being discussed (and the next few years, since Kadri would now be gone) except maybe this year, when Kadri had an unexpected explosion he's never come close to, in a contract year at age 31, and unlike 3 of the previous 4 years, didn't get suspended in the playoffs (though he absolutely would have if that Binnington play had happened while he was still on Toronto). We could have had both Tavares and Kadri if Kadri hadn't packed his bags out of town with two consecutive playoff suspensions after a history of discipline issues.
It does seem like the Marleau move and Tavares signing was a misread by Dubas.
Marleau was a misread by Lou - if you can even call somebody doing something they know is bad a "misread". Tavares wasn't a misread at all.
You said it's not an option to have 6m of 'dead cap' for a year of Marleau but the leafs failed to make the playoffs in 2020. So it was an option (look at teams like Colorado and TB who drafted Makar and Drouin.. who they turned into Sergachev).
The Leafs made the playoffs in 2020. The Leafs made the playoffs every single year in the Matthews era. The Leafs were in a competitive phase, coming off a top-7 finish, and competitive teams do not put themselves at a competitive disadvantage and intentionally make their team worse in order to carry 6.25m in dead cap.

Tampa and Colorado were both rebuilding teams when they drafted Makar and Drouin. Leafs had zero chance at anything close to a 3rd or 4th overall pick. Our worst year was still a top 13 team. Tampa and Colorado were 28th and 30th respectively.
Dubas didn't want to take a step back and he spent significant futures to try not to
It wasn't just Dubas. Nobody would have accepted taking a step back. Not upper management and especially not the fans. Heck, we actually took a decent step forward in 2018-2019, and people still complained because we didn't have as many shootout points as 2017-2018, or fluke Vezina-quality play from a journeyman backup. "Taking a step back" would have meant wasted years as a middling team, not adding significant prospects from the top of the draft.

What would have been a late 1st in a weak draft if not for post-trade rule changes caused by an unexpected global pandemic is not "significant futures".
As for your draft pick analogy Dubas has had a good number of picks but you can't claim that they haven't lost significant draft capital. It would be like exchanging a hundred dollar bill for two twenties. According to your logic, you've gained capital.
That's not my logic at all. We have spent some draft capital like any team in our position, but we are not at a significant net negative of draft capital. And you're so focused on the draft capital that you're ignoring what the draft capital is for - acquiring quality prospects and improving your prospect pool. We have done that, and done a good job holding on to those prospects.
Reading through the post it seems like you are doing backflips to justify moves that simply weren't correct in hindsight.
No "backflips" from me. Just facts. The one doing "backflips" here to misrepresent these moves is you.
 
I really dont care whos running the team and covid just killed cap teams in general. Thats undeniable. The Leafs got hit harder than most due to timing of the signings.

.....and the Leafs have 2nd best record in the league since Keefe took over and the 20th ranked team save %. When things got tight in the playoffs, the goaltending became even more exposed. Arnt you getting sick of having the 2nd best goalie in playoff series? The fact the Leafs made a play for the guy with legit playoff success and 2 rings might be the right one.

Lets see how it plays out.

That "guy"'s last 3 playoffs sv%: 0.908, 0.906 and 0.914. Does that sound like the best goalie in a series to you?

You pretty definitively stated Mrazek is a better goalie than Freddie.

Using advanced goalie stats.

What do those same one's say about Campbell vs Murray?

Be consistent in your methodology.

I'm very curious to see what the cutting-edge of stats has to say about these sorts of things.

Many others would like to read it too, surely.

The mental gymnastics are always fun to watch.

One of my biggest complaints against "advanced stats" users is their obvious bias and distortion of facts to support their agenda.
 
Sure if you want to cherry pick some games in the middle for Anderson. Lol.

Anderson also played a half season more of games, and basically the same save %.
Those are the facts, for the year.

You
Mrazek had a better save% last year with the Canes than Andersen did this year with the Canes.

So cherry picking and moving goalposts now.

This post wonderfully summarizes the dubas fan boys.

Their logic and excuses had been steadily getting worse the last few years.

The people who dislike dubas just want the Leafs to win, especially in the playoffs.

The dubas fan boys don't care about winning and just want dubas to stay on as gm.

Can you spot which set of fans are cheering for the team and which are not?
 
The people who dislike dubas just want the Leafs to win, especially in the playoffs.
The dubas fan boys don't care about winning and just want dubas to stay on as gm.
The people who dislike Dubas want to win in the past, and because we didn't win in the past, they want to purge the team of anything and everything associated with that outcome even if it's counterproductive or misguided, because they refuse to consider context, nuance, or how the person they want to purge is actually performing in their role.

The people you incorrectly label as "fanboys" are disappointed in the past losses, but know that those cannot be changed, and understand the actual reasons for and the margins in those losses, and so look for things that can help our team win in future outcomes and push back on destroying a consistently quality team that's so, so hard to build.

Just because one prefers to hang onto somebody who has done a lot of good despite some undesired playoff outcomes, that doesn't mean they don't want the team to win. They want the team to win more than anybody, and are actually thinking about how we get there instead of just complaining about the fact that we didn't yet and blaming it all on Dubas.
 
Dubas fan boys: you can't blame our failures on dubas!

Also dubas fan boys: blame everything on Lou, Babcock, Marleau, Freddie, cambell, covid, ect.

I know for a fact if we had beat Tampa in the first round last year that all of the dubas fan boys would be praising dubas to no end. Yet, since we lost for a 4th consecutive time under his watch, it isn't his fault.

The goal is to win the cup. If we had won a round or two in the last four years, there would be very few who dislike Kyle. But here we are with zero series wins and the dubas fan boys once again telling us how amazing Kyle is.
 
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Dubas fan boys: you can't blame our failures on dubas!

Also dubas fan boys: blame everything on Lou, Babcock, Marleau, Freddie, cambell, covid, ect.

I know for a fact if we had beat Tampa in the first round last year that all of the dubas fan boys would be praising dubas to no end. Yet, since we lost for a 4th consecutive time under his watch, it isn't his fault.

The goal is to win the cup. If we had won a round or two in the last four years, there would be very few who dislike Kyle. But here we are with zero series wins and the dubas fan boys once again telling us how amazing Kyle is.
So, your universe only includes "Dubas fan boys" and those that have Dubas as a clown as their profile pic?

I think Dubas has done a very good job. I think the regular season improvements have been encouraging, I think our mid term outook is positive cap and lineup wise, I think the flat cap (unforeseen) disproportionately impacted our plans but we adapted well, and I think all the guys on the GM pedestal right now did not have any better results that Dubas in their first four years.

If you want to talk actual hockey and not just flame a Dubas war LMK.

I will start with a question for you...what did Sakic or Yzerman do in their first four years on the job that was better than Dubas? Would you have been bashing them as well? Do you think they should have been fired after year four?

Here's an interesting fact also...if you look at both Tampa and Colorado's first four years under Yzerman and Sakic they won a COMBINED 14 playoff games and 2 playoff rounds (both by Tampa).

The Leafs have won 11 playoff games in KD's first four years...not great...but better than the GMs that architected the past three Stanley Cup champs.
 
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