Athletic: Dubas Job on the Line this Season (contract expiring after this season)

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I like the Amirov upside as a "potential Kucherov" and you can certainly draft big body defensemen anywhere you want, but a defenseman in that slot would have been an elegant solution. Don't get me wrong, I still hope Amirov pans out for us.

That said, over time the Leafs have exhibited quite a preference for certain types who have virtually no path to developing as everyday serviceable NHLers. I just look at a guy like Mac Hollowell. You can spend 5 years developing that player and I'm not sure what the value is there.

The main issue I have with the way they collect their players is that they (until very recently with Knies and Minten) seem to keep drafting the same guys over and over again. I think they get confused and see a value there that nobody else does because Dubas doesn't realize that every team can have a small player or 2...and we draft and develop tons of them for our team. A couple of them is ok...but when almost every single guy on the development train is 5'10-11" and 185lbs....that makes it hard to work with in the NHL.

There might be an inefficiency out there for smaller players...but we are never able to trade them for size the Dubas anticipated he would. Does anyone remember the "draft for skill and trade for size" that they kept mumbling after going up to the podium to select another undersized player?

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

The biggest issue with our drafting is that we draft based on "underrated market value" instead of BPA or organization needs.

It's why we get a lot of dudes with late birthdays and the same type of player seemingly it's because that's where the market value is most "underrated".

We most likely would have ended up with a better pool if we actually went bpa with our massive scouting budget

Why exactly are these small guys underrated when basically nobody else but Dubas wants them? We keep hearing the underrated term being bandied about but I have yet to see one of these picks hit...and we have been doing it for years. Eventually you come to the realization that they are not so much underrated as they are just not in demand. That is the big difference IMO. One mans Garbage....

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

It wasn't really "brushing off Perry and getting Jumbo instead". It was more-so they already had Thornton (and Simmonds) signed months before Perry (who, for the record, looked broken down and close to done before his recent resurgence) realized what he was worth in the new Covid cap environment.

So Jumbo with recurring knee blowouts over the last couple of years didn't look broken down but Perry did?

 

[Dreakmur]

The main issue in that post was that the individual was attempting to speak for an entire group of people, and apply his own personal feelings to them.
But it is also untrue that we are "soft" and "easy to play against". The idea that it's "easy to play against" one of the top teams in the league is laughable.
As for the whole "soft" thing, some people just don't realize or refuse to accept that the game has changed in the last 30 years, and what they're expecting is not a reality for any team.

We are less physical than some teams, because we prioritize positioning and possession, and have the puck more than most teams. We don't try to injure people, and we don't lick people's faces. We don't go out looking to pick fights. But that doesn't make a team "soft". If we are in a rough and tumble type of games, like the Winnipeg game, we can handle things just fine and dish some out ourselves.

Everything you just said here is just an explanation as to why we are easy to play against…

 

[Dekes For Days]

So Jumbo with recurring knee blowouts over the last couple of years didn't look broken down but Perry did?

Thornton played every game in the season before we signed him (and was a fitness freak), so I'm not really sure what you mean?

Over the previous two seasons, Thornton had played in 94.1% of games, and put up 0.57 P/GP
Over the previous two seasons, Perry had played in 58.3% of games, and put up 0.35 P/GP.

Nobody said Thornton or Simmonds didn't have their own question marks, but we'd already made our bets with them, so why would we be taking on another reclamation project after we'd already acquired somebody similar for the 4th line RW tough guy role he'd be playing two months prior to Perry realizing what he was actually worth?

This idea that Perry was some massively better option is all hindsight with his recent resurgence.

Everything you just said here is just an explanation as to why we are easy to play against…

Then you have a really weird definition of "easy to play against".

 

[PromisedLand]

How Shanny can look at this and still say this is working is beyond me.

somewhere out there Babcock is laughing his ass off. I wonder if he texted shanahan and said "told you so..."

 

[PromisedLand]

To be honest I just don't think it's all that complex or conspiring. Dubas made a splash with the Tavares signing and it all fell apart from there.

In no way am I saying that Tavares is a bad player.

Dubas had a string of bad luck and mostly self-made.

I wouldn't say that it is bad luck.

I think it is mostly self inflicted.

 

[PromisedLand]

When the team’s own coach calls the team soft and purposeless, it doesn’t get any more “insider” than that…

Keefe: Leafs were 'soft and purposeless' in loss to Rangers

www.thescore.com

The story line thus far (at least in my knowledge haven't follows Leafs dilligently this year)

1) Keefe loses his shit during the camp because players taking it easy and not putting in the effort
2) Season opener: Keefe's post game comments -> "given what we have gone through, i expected better effort" (paraphrasing)
3) Keefe calls out players after the yotes game. Then the following day "takes it back"
4) awaiting new news

 

[Dreakmur]

Then you have a really weird definition of "easy to play against".

I have the standard hockey definition. It’s not in any of your spreadsheets, so I get why that may seem weird to you.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I have the standard hockey definition.

You clearly don't.

 

[ULF_55]

somewhere out there Babcock is laughing his ass off. I wonder if he texted shanahan and said "told you so..."

Babcock past his best before date?

2009-10	Detroit Red Wings	NHL	Head	82	44	24	0	14	0.622	Lost in round 2
2010-11	Detroit Red Wings	NHL	Head	82	47	25	0	10	0.634	Lost in round 2
2011-12	Detroit Red Wings	NHL	Head	82	48	28	0	6	0.622	Lost in round 1
2012-13	Detroit Red Wings	NHL	Head	48	24	16	0	8	0.583	Lost in round 2
2013-14	Detroit Red Wings	NHL	Head	82	39	28	0	15	0.567	Lost in round 1
2014-15	Detroit Red Wings	NHL	Head	82	43	25	0	14	0.610	Lost in round 1
2015-16	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Head	82	29	42	0	11	0.421	Out of Playoffs
2016-17	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Head	82	40	27	0	15	0.579	Lost in round 1
2017-18	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Head	82	49	26	0	7	0.640	Lost in round 1
2018-19	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Head	82	46	28	0	8	0.610	Lost in round 1
2019-20	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	Head†	23	9	10	0	4	0.478

Babcock got paid a tonne of money to help rebuild the team.

I'm sure he's fine with his lot in life.

 

[ULF_55]

I wouldn't say that it is bad luck.

I think it is mostly self inflicted.

I'd say they have some top end players who really don't successfully elevate their games when games get tough.

I say successfully, because expected stats aren't results.
Hockey is a results driven business, not an effort driven business.

Losing to Columbus then to Montreal with the 1st. line absolutely crapping the bed.

Can a player find another gear at age 25?

 

[Dreakmur]

You clearly don't.

The fact that you think I’m wrong is confirmation that I’m correct.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The fact that you think I’m wrong is confirmation that I’m correct.

That's certainly an... interesting philosophy to live by,

 

[Dreakmur]

That's certainly an... interesting philosophy to live by,

Forming opinions based on a combination of data and my own experiences isn't that interesting.

 

[Stephen]

It wasn't really "brushing off Perry and getting Jumbo instead". It was more-so they already had Thornton (and Simmonds) signed months before Perry (who, for the record, looked broken down and close to done before his recent resurgence) realized what he was worth in the new Covid cap environment.

As opposed to Wayne Simmonds, who was dominating with New Jersey and Buffalo prior to the pandemic?

 

[IPS]

So Jumbo with recurring knee blowouts over the last couple of years didn't look broken down but Perry did?

Perry - like Kadri - did not play Dubas' preferred PG friendly hockey. That's why they couldn't have him.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Forming opinions based on a combination of data and my own experiences isn't that interesting.

Confirming opinions based merely on the presence of opposing positions is pretty interesting, and concerning.

As opposed to Wayne Simmonds, who was dominating with New Jersey and Buffalo prior to the pandemic?

No, similar to Simmonds. That's the whole point, as I said.

 

[Stephen]

No, similar to Simmonds. That's the whole point.

So they couldn't distinguish between a guy who was scoring goals in the cup finals vs a guy who was on IR with Buffalo, and ended up signing Simmonds for $1.5 million vs Perry at $750,000.

Since then, Perry has scored 10x playoff goals, equaling Matthews (5x) Marner (2x) Tavares (3x).

This is process and competence?

 

[killer1980]

Can a player find another gear at age 25?

I’ve worked with various coaches in all different kind of sports and the one thing they have all told me is that you can not instill heart and determination. We have seen that in many athletes these days. So many players with a lot less talent want to play so badly that they almost will themselves into the league and prove themselves valuable. Conversely, you see some guys with all the skill in the world who flame out in a few years because they don’t have that fire that takes them to the top. The job of a good GM is identifying that intangible. It is also much more rare to find a guy with pure talent that has that drive. When you do you have a Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid & Gordie Howe.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So they couldn't distinguish between a guy who was scoring goals in the cup finals vs a guy who was on IR with Buffalo, and ended up signing Simmonds for $1.5 million vs Perry at $750,000.

Both Simmonds and Perry were at similar points in their careers, and looked to be similar reclamation projects.
If you prefer Perry with hindsight, that's fine - he's had a nice and unexpected resurgence, but at the time we had already made similar bets and acquired somebody for the 4th line RW tough guy role months prior to Perry realizing what he was actually worth in a Covid cap world.

 

[thewave]

Thornton played every game in the season before we signed him (and was a fitness freak), so I'm not really sure what you mean?

Over the previous two seasons, Thornton had played in 94.1% of games, and put up 0.57 P/GP
Over the previous two seasons, Perry had played in 58.3% of games, and put up 0.35 P/GP.

Nobody said Thornton or Simmonds didn't have their own question marks, but we'd already made our bets with them, so why would we be taking on another reclamation project after we'd already acquired somebody similar for the 4th line RW tough guy role he'd be playing two months prior to Perry realizing what he was actually worth?

This idea that Perry was some massively better option is all hindsight with his recent resurgence.

Then you have a really weird definition of "easy to play against".

We are easy to play against. Difficult to outscore. And he was right, you summed it up perfectly.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

We are easy to play against. Difficult to outscore. And he was right, you summed it up perfectly.

That my friend pretty much sums up the Dubas era IMO. Touche!

 

[Stephen]

Both Simmonds and Perry were at similar points in their careers, and looked to be similar reclamation projects.
If you prefer Perry with hindsight, that's fine - he's had a nice and unexpected resurgence, but at the time we had already made similar bets and acquired somebody for the 4th line RW tough guy role months prior to Perry realizing what he was actually worth in a Covid cap world.

At $750,000 there was no risk with Perry, there was no downside... It could have been accommodated and we wouldn't have needed Galchenyuk later that season.

 

[Stephen]

We are easy to play against. Difficult to outscore. And he was right, you summed it up perfectly.

There seems to be a lack of understanding with Dubas/Keefe that the harder you make life for the other team with physical play, chip and chase, cycle game and other annoyances that burn up the clock, the less scoring and active defending you have to do. The more you wear out the opposition in the attrition, the less gas they have for counter attacking, late game rallies and other nonsense that has hurt the Leafs closeout.

Do the hardest work earliest and protect your advantage throughout the game.