Athletic: Dubas Job on the Line this Season (contract expiring after this season)

[JKG33]

Though that's not quite true is it? Majority of pre draft rankings had Amirov ahead. And then 3 other teams passed on Schneider after the Leafs selection.

Debatable maybe, but not obvious.

What did the Leafs need? Physical, right handed, stay at home d man. What did they not need? Another soft, small, "skill" winger. Which one did they draft? Yet another soft winger.

If some dickhead on a message board (me) can figure it out, then surely a GM being paid millions per year should be able to as well, no?

 

[HockeyVirus]

What did the Leafs need? Physical, right handed, stay at home d man. What did they not need? Another soft, small, "skill" winger. Which one did they draft? Yet another soft winger.

If some dickhead on a message board (me) can figure it out, then surely a GM being paid millions per year should be able to as well, no?

And if Schnieder becomes a Ben Chiarot and Amirov a Panarin we would say what could have been.

 

[Stephen]

Nor I. But that being said- if this season goes down the tubes scrubbed we're kind of at the intersection of a point where re-signing Matthews gets a whole lot more uncertain and the last moment he can be traded with multiple years of value before he controls his destiny.
His value + gambling on Marner seizing the limelight/having his Gilmour/Yzerman maturation to drive a line solo makes me think it wouldn't be the end of the world.

I'd still prefer to move Marner keep Matthews and roll the dice, but you can make the case either way

I'd make my focus re-signing Matthews and would imagine you would have a sense of where things are standing there.

If we ended up trading Matthews in a worst case, I don't know if I want to build around Marner.

 

[Stephen]

Though that's not quite true is it? Majority of pre draft rankings had Amirov ahead. And then 3 other teams passed on Schneider after the Leafs selection.

Debatable maybe, but not obvious.

I like the Amirov upside as a "potential Kucherov" and you can certainly draft big body defensemen anywhere you want, but a defenseman in that slot would have been an elegant solution. Don't get me wrong, I still hope Amirov pans out for us.

That said, over time the Leafs have exhibited quite a preference for certain types who have virtually no path to developing as everyday serviceable NHLers. I just look at a guy like Mac Hollowell. You can spend 5 years developing that player and I'm not sure what the value is there.

 

[4thline]

I'd make my focus re-signing Matthews and would imagine you would have a sense of where things are standing there.

If we ended up trading Matthews in a worst case, I don't know if I want to build around Marner.

I don't know. If we're have that conversation the team is struggling, Dubas is out, and someone new has either just come in or we're rolling Shanny/an interim. If I'm him I'm not committing for anything but absolute top dollar- and even then it's dicey.

Honestly, if you've got the stones to do it maybe you move both.

Edit Re: Hollowell - hail mary on getting either Spurgeon or Spurgeon with better offense. Low percentage gamble.

 

[Stephen]

I don't know. If we're have that conversation the team is struggling, Dubas is out, and someone new has either just come in or we're rolling Shanny/an interim. If I'm him I'm not committing for anything but absolute top dollar- and even then it's dicey.

Honestly, if you've got the stones to do it maybe you move both.

Edit Re: Hollowell - hail mary on getting either Spurgeon or Spurgeon with better offense. Low percentage gamble.

Yeah, and we followed up drafting guys like Fusco, Miller, Loponen, Schnigoethe, Koster who also don't seem to have much of a purpose in the organization. Even some of the brighter lights in the prospect pool like SDA and Der-Arguchintsev, will they grow up to be Malgin +? The pipeline is just full of nothing that matches the big team, and they just belly ache all day that they don't have guys to replace Muzzin, Simmonds, etc. It's because we generally don't pick guys like that.

 

[4thline]

Yeah, and we followed up drafting guys like Fusco, Miller, Loponen, Schnigoethe, Koster who also don't seem to have much of a purpose in the organization. Even some of the brighter lights in the prospect pool like SDA and Der-Arguchintsev, will they grow up to be Malgin +?

That's a really strange grab bag of names to single out.
Fusco/Miller- yeah questionable pick smurfs- 10x the hail mary level of Hollowell
Loponen/Schingoethe- average sized guys that just didn't have it

Koster- just doesn't belong. Small but not a "waterbug" type. Plays a high IQ, high mobility defensive game with a strong first pass, great positioning and good body work. He doesn't have Hollowell's offense, but is actually stylistically a much better bet for a Spurgeon

SDA (who is the same person as Der-Arguchintsev), I don't know if I'd consider him a "brighter light"

 

[Stephen]

That's a really strange grab bag of names to single out.
Fusco/Miller- yeah questionable pick smurfs- 10x the hail mary level of Hollowell
Loponen/Schingoethe- average sized guys that just didn't have it

Koster- just doesn't belong. Small but not a "waterbug" type. Plays a high IQ, high mobility defensive game with a strong first pass, great positioning and good body work. He doesn't have Hollowell's offense, but is actually stylistically a much better bet for a Spurgeon

SDA (who is the same person as Der-Arguchintsev), I don't know if I'd consider him a "brighter light"

But the problem here is none of these guys have the upside that you could fit anywhere in the bottom pairing or bottom 6 that can augment the Big Club.

 

[Menzinger]

What did the Leafs need? Physical, right handed, stay at home d man. What did they not need? Another soft, small, "skill" winger. Which one did they draft? Yet another soft winger.

If some dickhead on a message board (me) can figure it out, then surely a GM being paid millions per year should be able to as well, no?

A couple things though: LW was absolutely a need at the time of the 2020 draft.

The team had no long term guys in the roster there, and only Robertson in the pipeline. Plus, there has been a need (and still is) to compliment the top 9 with cheap and skilled ELC talent.

And what if the Leafs scouts weren't confident Schneider would develop into a legit top 4 guy? Just because one wants a physical D man to fill that role, doesn't necessarily mean you can always get one at the draft.

So again - I can understand not necessarily liking the Amirov pick. But I'd absolutely reject the notion doing something else was the absolute logical move

 

[Menzinger]

But the problem here is none of these guys have the upside that you could fit anywhere in the bottom pairing or bottom 6 that can augment the Big Club.

I'd reject this too. I think Koster in particular has the opportunity to still become a legit bottom pairing D for the team. Especially either next season or the one beyond that when guys like Sandin/Lily have likely moved up the depth chart.

 

[Stephen]

I'd reject this too. I think Koster in particular has the opportunity to still become a legit bottom pairing D for the team. Especially either next season or the one beyond that when guys like Sandin/Lily have likely moved up the depth chart.

Frankly, a lot of things would have to go wrong organizationally for Michael Koster to be in contention for a Leaf job in 2023-24 and 2024-25. He's 5'9", 21 and is in his 3rd year NCAA with minimal professional development time in that time frame.

To make that jump, we're basically losing Brodie, not replacing either of Muzzin or Brodie, not getting a run of the mill bottom pair defenseman, and Koster would be moving past a number of prospects with more pedigree and professional development. Plus what role would he be filling on a 6 man unit that's basically starving for a Muzzin body type and forced to use Holl like he's Alex Pietrangelo?

Rielly
Top 4 Upgrade
Top 4 Upgrade
Sandin
Liljegren
Koster
Bottom Pair Veteran
Niemela
Villenueve
Kral
Kokkonen

 

[egd27]

I don't know if I want to build around Marner.

Wasn't that a big complaint when we tried to build around another skilled winger a dozen years ago.

 

[Stephen]

That's a really strange grab bag of names to single out.
Fusco/Miller- yeah questionable pick smurfs- 10x the hail mary level of Hollowell
Loponen/Schingoethe- average sized guys that just didn't have it

Koster- just doesn't belong. Small but not a "waterbug" type. Plays a high IQ, high mobility defensive game with a strong first pass, great positioning and good body work. He doesn't have Hollowell's offense, but is actually stylistically a much better bet for a Spurgeon

SDA (who is the same person as Der-Arguchintsev), I don't know if I'd consider him a "brighter light"

SDA isn't very special but just to illustrate that if everything goes right with him in development, are we getting much more than an Denis Malgin out of the whole process?

 

[Stephen]

Wasn't that a big complaint when we tried to build around another skilled winger a dozen years ago.

Well, exactly. Put Marner behind Matthews, he's properly slotted behind someone in a lead role. If Marner's the cornerstone piece, the program just makes a lot less sense.

 

[Menzinger]

Frankly, a lot of things would have to go wrong organizationally for Michael Koster to be in contention for a Leaf job in 2023-24 and 2024-25. He's 5'9", 21 and is in his 3rd year NCAA with minimal professional development time in that time frame.

To make that jump, we're basically losing Brodie, not replacing either of Muzzin or Brodie, not getting a run of the mill bottom pair defenseman, and Koster would be moving past a number of prospects with more pedigree and professional development. Plus what role would he be filling on a 6 man unit that's basically starving for a Muzzin body type and forced to use Holl like he's Alex Pietrangelo?

Rielly
Top 4 Upgrade
Top 4 Upgrade
Sandin
Liljegren
Koster
Bottom Pair Veteran
Niemela
Villenueve
Kral
Kokkonen

I'd admit next season likely wouldn't happen. But not impossible to be circling for a job in the next 3 years. Basically finishes his stint with the Gophers plus some AHL time. The Leafs in the meantime can see a fair amount of roster turnover in that range. Maybe Sandin or Liljgren are traded this summer, Holl/Muzzin likely gone ect - who knows.

I wouldn't get too caught up in his height. He's very smart, good puck skills and I think could with a bit more development time could make part of a strong bottom pairing.

And regardless of the specifics of his timeline to the pros, I just think it's not fair to dismiss like him from having an impact from the prospect pool. Guys like him are clearly headed in the right direction. Getting any type of NHLer from a later round pick Is it win from a draft and development perspective.

 

[mikeyz]

And if Schnieder becomes a Ben Chiarot and Amirov a Panarin we would say what could have been.

I know we're talking purely "What if" but I can 100% guarantee you that Amirov will not become Panarin. I would be willing to bet every single penny I have in the bank on that. Lol.

 

[Stephen]

I'd admit next season likely wouldn't happen. But not impossible to be circling for a job in the next 3 years. Basically finishes his stint with the Gophers plus some AHL time. The Leafs in the meantime can team can see a fair amount of roster turnover in that range. Maybe Sandin or Liljgren are traded this summer - who knows.

I wouldn't get too caught up in his height. He's very smart, good puck skills and I think could with a bit more development time could make part of a strong bottom pairing.

And regardless of the specifics of his timeline to the pros, I just think it's not fair to dismiss like him from having an impact from the prospect pool. Guys like him are clearly headed in the right direction. Getting any type of NHLer from a later round pick Is it win from a draft and development perspective.

I don’t think it’s about fairness to Koster just making a case that we have a high number of prospects who can hit their potential and still not really match the team’s needs.

It’s just about intentionally designing a competitive Leafs team with certain characteristics. Maybe they go heavier on size in the next couple of years and you can fit him in. But if we’re bringing up a smart 5’9” guy to support a bunch of other 6’0” guy in a division where we have Seider/Edvinsson and Power/Dahlin, and then bemoaning why Muzzin is the only type we have in the organization? Try diversifying the pipeline.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I don't think Dubas' strategy was flawed per say. He anchored himself to the big 4 in terms of elite talent. Problem is, that elite talent has not pulled through when it matters. It's not uncommon for elite players to carry their team a round or two in the playoffs, but none of the Leafs' stars have been able to do that. I can't blame Dubas for that.

BUT hanging on to the core group, without a major shakeup, in the last couple of years (and his continued commitment to them) will be his downfall. The proof is in the pudding this the core, despite their talent and not a change has been considered went its pretty clear something needs to be done. You invest that much of your cap space to 4 players, they have to carry you when it matters.

 

[rocketman588]

We've gotten pretty good value out of the Sandin, Knies, Robertson and Niemela picks, although I am starting to worry about Niemela. The other 3 are great value, though.

That's 4 guys in 5 years of drafting.

The habs have an undrafted free agent from 2019 with the same number of points as Sandin

 

[rocketman588]

The biggest issue with our drafting is that we draft based on "underrated market value" instead of BPA or organization needs.

It's why we get a lot of dudes with late birthdays and the same type of player seemingly it's because that's where the market value is most "underrated".

We most likely would have ended up with a better pool if we actually went bpa with our massive scouting budget

 

[Dekes For Days]

What did the Leafs need? Physical, right handed, stay at home d man.

We needed LW prospects just as much. We had already drafted 11 defensemen over the previous 3 drafts, including using our 1st and 2nd round picks on them in 2017 and 2018 (one of which was a 6 foot 5, 200+ lb RHD FYI). We had Sandin and Liljegren on the way up, we had a fairly young Dermott, we had Holl who had emerged from our system, we had Rielly and Muzzin as anchors on the defense, and we had intentions of targeting Brodie.

We also still drafted 4 right-handed defensemen in that draft, including Niemela, who won best defenseman at the WJC in his post-draft year.

Schneider hasn't even shown to be anything special yet, so I don't know why we're stressing over him. He wouldn't even be in the NHL yet if we had drafted him. He probably shouldn't even be in the NHL with New York, because he's not doing very well.

 

[andora]

Easy comment to type.... Could you back it up your opinion with hard facts?

My guess is you won't (as per usual).

Please explain why the leafs aren't in the bottom of difficulty to play against (soft)

I got the right poster...

But your right.... It is unclear what your stance was, I'll attempt to clarify first by asking you this question:

Do you disagree with the post that the leafs are one of the softest teams to play against? Or do you agree they are one of the softest but just angry that the poster spoke for an entire group of people?

You wont get an answer..

 

[Dekes For Days]

Do you disagree with the post that the leafs are one of the softest teams to play against?
Or do you agree they are one of the softest but just angry that the poster spoke for an entire group of people?

The main issue in that post was that the individual was attempting to speak for an entire group of people, and apply his own personal feelings to them.
But it is also untrue that we are "soft" and "easy to play against". The idea that it's "easy to play against" one of the top teams in the league is laughable.
As for the whole "soft" thing, some people just don't realize or refuse to accept that the game has changed in the last 30 years, and what they're expecting is not a reality for any team.

We are less physical than some teams, because we prioritize positioning and possession, and have the puck more than most teams. We don't try to injure people, and we don't lick people's faces. We don't go out looking to pick fights. But that doesn't make a team "soft". If we are in a rough and tumble type of games, like the Winnipeg game, we can handle things just fine and dish some out ourselves.

You wont get an answer..

Weird post, considering that not only did I answer both posts in question, but I also answered your similar question earlier in the thread (which you actually avoided responding to).

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I find there's some odd Leaf monoculture where almost everyone who comes up through the system has that amiable play between the whistles, clean cut mentality. They even seem to steer clear of jerk personalities like Corey Perry in free agency.

Didn't Craig Button say the problem with the whole organization is that they're too nice? They seem to take it seriously enough that they brushed off Perry and got Jumbo instead..bad move...we needed a Perry more than a broken down IDGAF player like Jumbo. It's not a surprise he never won anything out in SJ.

 

[Dekes For Days]

They seem to take it seriously enough that they brushed off Perry and got Jumbo instead.

It wasn't really "brushing off Perry and getting Jumbo instead". It was more-so they already had Thornton (and Simmonds) signed months before Perry (who, for the record, looked broken down and close to done before his recent resurgence) realized what he was worth in the new Covid cap environment.