ATD 2017 Draft Thread IV

[BenchBrawl]

I'll take Jimmy Watson, D to complete my defensive squad.

"Jim Watson is the most underrated defenseman in the league. He's not flashy or a great goal scorer, but is always in position and rarely makes mistakes"

Seemingly indefatiguable on the ice, Jimmy has the ideal temperment for the gashouse spirit that pervades the Flyers locker room." - Montreal Gazette (Jan 10, 1975)

"Jim Watson, Team Canada's top defenseman..." - (The Leader-Post, Sep 9 1976)

“In a day of a more up-and-down game, his lateral movement was exceptional. He anticipated the play and was really competitive, just a really good player.” - Bobby Clarke

"Jimmy Watson is an all-star" - Bobby Clarke (The Phoenix, May 21 1980)

 

[tinyzombies]

I think Subban is a good pick here tony.Subban's peak is very high for this range, he brings it in the playoffs, is physically strong and can be used as a PP triggerman.

Except last night when he was caught from behind and outmuscled in the corner by Paul Byron.

 

[Dreakmur]

Except last night when he was caught from behind and outmuscled in the corner by Paul Byron.

He's no Graham Drinkwater...

 

[tony d]

Time to review recent picks;

Jack Marshall: Don't know much about him but reading his bio, the guy seems like a good jack of all trades guy, good for a 4th line/bench.

Rick Vaive: Good pick for sure, I like the fit with Kirk Muller on a 4th line to form a good 4th line.

Dave Burrows: Good way to finish off your bottom 6, him and Hatcher should form a pretty good defense offense 3rd pairing on defense.

Rod Seiling: Good pick, should be a good defensive partner for the offensive Egan. The bio dreakmur did of him really paints a good picture of Seiling.

Bruce Stuart: Hod's brother and a good pick in his own right, seems like a physical goal scorer which are always good on a 4th line.

Gump Worsley: Will give your team a good 1-2 goalie punch. Needed in a division with Plante, Gardiner, Durnan, Smith and Tretiak.

Brian Rolston: Good player and a good way to finish off your starting 12 forwards. Not going to be as tough as his linemates, Hunter and Tocchet, but a good player in his own right.

Brad Marchand: Not a fan of this pick at all. Yes he is a good player but there were better options available for you for your 4th line LW. A bit of friendly advice to you would be for you to pick a good extra left winger with your 1st spare pick.

David Backes: I like the pick and the fit with Peca should give you a good defensive 4th line but I do wonder how much right wing he played. He's listed as a C/RW but I remember him being more of a centre.

PK Subban: Glad to get him, again I would have liked to have finished my starting 12 but I still got 4 guys in mind for that spot and probably can get 1 of them at 508. In Subban I get a guy who's going to be a great defenseman to come off the bunch. Obviously he's not going to be Karlsson but he's still going to be good in his own right.

Ken Morrow: You got Housley, a defensive liability, and got him a very safe partner at even strength. Good job.

Vic Hadfield: Nice pick, someone I've always liked, good way to finish off your starting 12 forwards.

Hap Holmes: For a backup goalie at this level it doesn't get much better than Hap Holmes, nice pick.

Ed Sandford: Reading up on him he seems like another do everything guy which are always great for your bottom 6 forwards.

Jimmy Watson: Fun fact: I looked him at him before going with Subban. Very good pick and a good way to finish off your top 6 on defense.

Anyway those are my thoughts on recent picks.

 

[rmartin65]

He's not ready yet.... completely skipped the MLD. I know he's having a good season but...

He's in his 7th season right now. So was Jamie Benn last year. At that point, Benn made his meteoric rise to ATD status. And Benn is a significantly better player than Marchand. He had a significantly better resume than Marchand does now, at the time when he was taken early in MLD 2015 and had only played six seasons.

I disagree (obviously).

7 seasons in, Marchand has proven himself to be an excellent PK guy (Bergeron isn't out there by himself; Marchand has 5 seasons top 5 in SH goals), and a solid ES scorer (2 time top 10 ES goals, if this year holds). He is defensively responsible, chippy without taking a bunch of PIMs (0 top 10s there), and can PK. He also has a nice playoff run, where he finished 1st in ES goals.

Put ATD canon aside for a second, and look at Marchand compared to some recently drafted LWs. Why are Hadfield, Clark, Sandford, Rolston, Liba, Patrick or Davidson any better? He is arguably the best PKer in the group... Among the best at ES scoring... He wont rack up the PIMs that Hadfield or Clark will. He isn't soft like Patrick.

You have the ES VsX formula, where does Marchand fall?

 

[Dreakmur]

He's not ready yet.... completely skipped the MLD. I know he's having a good season but...

He's in his 7th season right now. So was Jamie Benn last year. At that point, Benn made his meteoric rise to ATD status. And Benn is a significantly better player than Marchand. He had a significantly better resume than Marchand does now, at the time when he was taken early in MLD 2015 and had only played six seasons.

I looked into Marchand. He drew me in with his very strong short handed goal finishes, so maybe he could be a good PKer. After looking though the ice times, he was never one of his team's primary PK forwards - usually 5th or 6th.

 

[ResilientBeast]

So on the marchand talk

AST: 5, 11, 20
Selke: 24, 25, 35, 43

Career wise 356 Points
42 on the power play to date
30 on the penalty kill to date

 

[rmartin65]

I looked into Marchand. He drew me in with his very strong short handed goal finishes, so maybe he could be a good PKer. After looking though the ice times, he was never one of his team's primary PK forwards - usually 5th or 6th.

Which, for a 2nd unit guy here, is good with me.

Let's be real- My team isn't going to be winning low scoring games. Having the ability to score, even while shorthanded, is the draw for me.

 

[Dreakmur]

Which, for a 2nd unit guy here, is good with me.

Let's be real- My team isn't going to be winning low scoring games. Having the ability to score, even while shorthanded, is the draw for me.

I'm not sure it's a good idea to man your 2nd PK unit with guys who weren't even 2nd PK in their careers.

 

[chaosrevolver]

I disagree (obviously).

7 seasons in, Marchand has proven himself to be an excellent PK guy (Bergeron isn't out there by himself; Marchand has 5 seasons top 5 in SH goals), and a solid ES scorer (2 time top 10 ES goals, if this year holds). He is defensively responsible, chippy without taking a bunch of PIMs (0 top 10s there), and can PK. He also has a nice playoff run, where he finished 1st in ES goals.

Put ATD canon aside for a second, and look at Marchand compared to some recently drafted LWs. Why are Hadfield, Clark, Sandford, Rolston, Liba, Patrick or Davidson any better? He is arguably the best PKer in the group... Among the best at ES scoring... He wont rack up the PIMs that Hadfield or Clark will. He isn't soft like Patrick.

You have the ES VsX formula, where does Marchand fall?

Hadfield specifically was much more of a power forward/enforcer than Marchand and had a season where he scored 50 goals (finishing tied with Bobby Hull and ahead of many HOFerd)...earning him a spot on the 72 Summit Series Team. He also has a complete career which is a strike against Marchand. Brads only really starting to become a top line player and while his SHG resume is strong..thats the only thing positive about his game that has been on display for more than a season and a half.

 

[rmartin65]

I'm not sure it's a good idea to man your 2nd PK unit with guys who weren't even 2nd PK in their careers.

I would agree to that if I was trying to put someone like Ovechkin on the PK. But Marchand has shown that he can be effective on the PK, and that he does have a large, positive impact playing that role when he is given that chance.

 

[rmartin65]

Hadfield specifically was much more of a power forward/enforcer than Marchand and had a season where he scored 50 goals (finishing tied with Bobby Hull and ahead of many HOFerd)...earning him a spot on the 72 Summit Series Team. He also has a complete career which is a strike against Marchand. Brads only really starting to become a top line player and while his SHG resume is strong..thats the only thing positive about his game that has been on display for more than a season and a half.

Hadfield has the enforcer/power forward thing over Marchand, sure. But that 50 goal season was the only time he finished top 10 in goals, assists, or points. And it looks as though he scored quite a bit on the PP.

72 summit team, thats good. But Marchand was on the 2016 World Cup team, was named to the 1st tournament team, and led the tournament in goals.

Why should a full career make Hadfield better? Marchand's 7 seasons, I wager, are right there with Hadfield's.

EDIT: 7 best seasons, team points finishes

1, 1, 4, 5, 5, 5, 7

2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6

That looks pretty even to me, and one of them wasn't riding shotgun to 2 high end scorers in Ratelle and Gilbert. One also did produce much of his offense on the PP.

Now, I readily admit that points are not everything, especially for 4th liners. But to say that Marchand only brings offense to the table would be just as ludicrous as to say Hadfield only brought offense.

 

[chaosrevolver]

Hadfield has the enforcer/power forward thing over Marchand, sure. But that 50 goal season was the only time he finished top 10 in goals, assists, or points. And it looks as though he scored quite a bit on the PP.

72 summit team, thats good. But Marchand was on the 2016 World Cup team, was named to the 1st tournament team, and led the tournament in goals.

Why should a full career make Hadfield better? Marchand's 7 seasons, I wager, are right there with Hadfield's.

Last year was also Marchands only time in the top 10..Hadfield got a 2nd All star team only behind Hull..Marchand got nothing really..

And while good for Brad on the international scene..he had a great tournament but that World Cup team isnt quite as prestigious for me (never was a fan of the tournament itself).

Marchands been a second line player outside of a season and a half in productivity. He also brings a lot more to the game than Marchand which has to play a role. Brad is hardly an outstanding defensive player..he isnt bad..but in an ATD context he isnt great by any means.

 

[chaosrevolver]

Id add Hadfield probably should have been a 1st All Star in 72. He outproduced Hull..finished higher in Hart voting and if not for Bobbys incredible reputation I think Hadfield likely gets it.

 

[chaosrevolver]

Hadfield has the enforcer/power forward thing over Marchand, sure. But that 50 goal season was the only time he finished top 10 in goals, assists, or points. And it looks as though he scored quite a bit on the PP.

72 summit team, thats good. But Marchand was on the 2016 World Cup team, was named to the 1st tournament team, and led the tournament in goals.

Why should a full career make Hadfield better? Marchand's 7 seasons, I wager, are right there with Hadfield's.

EDIT: 7 best seasons, team points finishes

1, 1, 4, 5, 5, 5, 7

2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6

That looks pretty even to me, and one of them wasn't riding shotgun to 2 high end scorers in Ratelle and Gilbert. One also did produce much of his offense on the PP.

Now, I readily admit that points are not everything, especially for 4th liners. But to say that Marchand only brings offense to the table would be just as ludicrous as to say Hadfield only brought offense.

I dont think anyone is really saying all he brings is offense but rather that he doesnt kill penalties as much as you would expect out of an ATD Pker and he takes a lot of minor penalties himself.

I dont think he is necessarily an awful pick but I also think there are active players with better overall resumes (granted perhaps without the agitating skills).

 

[rmartin65]

I dont think anyone is really saying all he brings is offense but rather that he doesnt kill penalties as much as you would expect out of an ATD Pker and he takes a lot of minor penalties himself.

I was mainly just getting out in front of the issue, as I had just posted an offensive comparison of 2 4th liners.

As for penalties- considering Marchand has never been top 10 in PIMs, while Hadfield was top 5 twice, I dont think Marchand is going to be a liability. Not all PIMs are equal... but then again, we have to consider how many penalties Marchand has drawn with his style.

Something else I feel like I should mention- watching the 2011 Cup finals, I think Marchand was right there with Thomas in terms of leading that team. Marchand's playing style emboldened the Bruins, and they then bullied the Canucks.

EDIT: I should add that I am not trying to say that Hadfield is a poor 4th liner; just that Marchand is.

 

[seventieslord]

I disagree (obviously).

7 seasons in, Marchand has proven himself to be an excellent PK guy (Bergeron isn't out there by himself; Marchand has 5 seasons top 5 in SH goals), and a solid ES scorer (2 time top 10 ES goals, if this year holds). He is defensively responsible, chippy without taking a bunch of PIMs (0 top 10s there), and can PK. He also has a nice playoff run, where he finished 1st in ES goals.

His career usage is 26%. You've seen the numbers that the guys in this draft quote. I look for 30% as a bare minmimum, and that's 30% maintained over 1000+ game careers usually, and 26% I'd settle for at the MLD level, if I have to, and that's typically with 700+ game players.

He's had good team results but hasn't been a primary guy. Basing a selection on a statistic with such a small sample size attached to it (SHG) is really questionable. top-5 in the league with how many? 3? 4?

Put ATD canon aside for a second, and look at Marchand compared to some recently drafted LWs. Why are Hadfield, Clark, Sandford, Rolston, Liba, Patrick or Davidson any better? He is arguably the best PKer in the group... Among the best at ES scoring... He wont rack up the PIMs that Hadfield or Clark will. He isn't soft like Patrick.

You have the ES VsX formula, where does Marchand fall?

He'd be a 486 for his best (only) 7 years if he got injured tonight. That's pretty good, but VsX type stats are still only a starting point. It's very much worth considering what else a player did outside of those 7 years. In the case of the guys you mentioned, it's a lot. In his case, it was playing junior hockey.

He very well might be the best penalty killer in that group (aside from Rolston of course, who killed more penalties for more successful teams for over twice as long) but that's not reason alone to select a player.

The reason all those guys are better is because they all played full careers, did more than he did and have actual sample sizes that can back up their "rate stats". It's not just canon... the dude is in his 7th season. Barely anyone is ready for the ATD in his 7th season. Jamie Benn barely was.

I would agree to that if I was trying to put someone like Ovechkin on the PK. But Marchand has shown that he can be effective on the PK, and that he does have a large, positive impact playing that role when he is given that chance.

You're greatly overstating how large and how positive his impact is when killing penalties.

There are plenty of LWs on the board who killed penalties as well as he did, and did it for twice as long or even more. Do you have overpass' spreadsheet? You should take a look.

 

[chaosrevolver]

I was mainly just getting out in front of the issue, as I had just posted an offensive comparison of 2 4th liners.

As for penalties- considering Marchand has never been top 10 in PIMs, while Hadfield was top 5 twice, I dont think Marchand is going to be a liability. Not all PIMs are equal... but then again, we have to consider how many penalties Marchand has drawn with his style.

Something else I feel like I should mention- watching the 2011 Cup finals, I think Marchand was right there with Thomas in terms of leading that team. Marchand's playing style emboldened the Bruins, and they then bullied the Canucks.

EDIT: I should add that I am not trying to say that Hadfield is a poor 4th liner; just that Marchand is.

I mean Hadfield fought 72 times in his career..after all he was the protector of his linemates. He wasnt putting his team on the penalty kill with those minutes...from 2014-2016 Marchand took 69 minor penalties which is not insignificant by any means. He finished 5th in minors one year and currently is a penalty away from being top 5 again. Add the many times he is over the top with his actions and he does go over the edge in a negative way quite a bit.

 

[seventieslord]

One day I'll be singing Marchand's praises as I draft him for my ATD 4th line, maybe in about five years. I don't even mind the penalties, he's a great little player who's all heart. But I couldn't, in good conscience, tout him as being loaded with these intangibles to a degree anywhere near other players who did it for over twice as long. It needs to be said sometimes, just like you need time to build up an offensive track record, it's the same for a defensive track record, or physicality, agitating, leadership or anything else.

 

[rmartin65]

His career usage is 26%. You've seen the numbers that the guys in this draft quote. I look for 30% as a bare minmimum, and that's 30% maintained over 1000+ game careers usually, and 26% I'd settle for at the MLD level, if I have to, and that's typically with 700+ game players.

He's had good team results but hasn't been a primary guy. Basing a selection on a statistic with such a small sample size attached to it (SHG) is really questionable. top-5 in the league with how many? 3? 4?

SHG is not my only criteria, but it plays a role. What brought him to my attention was the SHG, sure, but it was his ESP that sold me. Also, his reputation as a good defensive player (his fancy stats are pretty good, and while his Selke voting is low... who much of that is due to his (admittedly well-deserved) reputation?) made him my decision.

He'd be a 486 for his best (only) 7 years if he got injured tonight. That's pretty good, but VsX type stats are still only a starting point. It's very much worth considering what else a player did outside of those 7 years. In the case of the guys you mentioned, it's a lot. In his case, it was playing junior hockey.

I guess I am still struggling finding the balance between compiler and short peak. I mean, many old-time players dont have much outside of 7 years, but this board seems cool with that. Why is Marchand's best 7 not treated the same? His ESVsX wont get any worse after these 7 seasons, it can only go up. If this year holds, he'll be at a 69.4! That is a damn fine score, especially considering his usage during his first couple years.

He very well might be the best penalty killer in that group (aside from Rolston of course, who killed more penalties for more successful teams for over twice as long) but that's not reason alone to select a player.

As mentioned above, PK/SHG was not the sole reason I chose him. But it worked in his favor.

The reason all those guys are better is because they all played full careers, did more than he did and have actual sample sizes that can back up their "rate stats". It's not just canon... the dude is in his 7th season. Barely anyone is ready for the ATD in his 7th season. Jamie Benn barely was.

Again, why is this such a killer for modern players? 7 seasons seems to be an acceptable sample size for older players, so why is it so wrong here?

I thought Benn was absolutely worth his selection last year, just like I think Marchand is worthy to be my 12th forward.

You're greatly overstating how large and how positive his impact is when killing penalties.

This I'll admit to; I thought his numbers would be better here.

There are plenty of LWs on the board who killed penalties as well as he did, and did it for twice as long or even more. Do you have overpass' spreadsheet? You should take a look.

But they are not as good as ES players. Its a balance, and I am not just going to rifle through numbers and blindly pick the guy with the best PK numbers. Marchand does more than PK, and he does more than score at ES; he battles, agitates, and defends.

And no, I dont have the spreadsheet. I tried opening it earlier, but for some reason my computer doesn't like it, and it wont open.

 

[rmartin65]

I prefer xxx to Marchand.

And I prefer Marchand to a couple LWs already taken.

In any case, I guess I am learning what happens when one goes outside ATD canon. Next year I'll be sure to draft a bunch of old time players who I can claim is good at X because I find a quote or two saying so.

 

[rmartin65]

Last post from me for a bit on this subject, but I can't resist.

Ed Sandford, who everyone loves as a 4th line forward, played only 8 meaningful seasons. Is one season (and not even any particular great seasons) really the difference between a bad draft pick and a top notch 4th liner?

And I only bring up Sandford because he was the second guy on my list (as jarek can attest). Would I really be in a better position because of 1 season?

 

[overpass]

Hey rmartin, I'm not a voter but I like the Marchand pick. I think he's made his mark on history already with his big game performances and his unique style and skill set. Most hockey fans may hate him...but they'll remember him.

For those knocking his PK time, try looking at his TOI as well as the numbers in my spreadsheet. I have a feeling that he and Bergeron are underrated by the metric based on GA, possibly because they've been so freaking good on the PK. Without checking the numbers I'm pretty sure they were on the ice for only 4 PPGA in the shortened 2013 season while playing 2 minutes/game on the PK.

 

[Sturminator]

For what it's worth, I find seventies' PK standard too stringent, especially with regards to contemporary players, who all log less PK ice time than guys from the 70s/80s because that's how the game is played today. Much as it is with offensive production, I don't care nearly so much about a forward's career averages on the PK as I do about his sustained peak performance (so, seven seasons+) in the role. Marchand is a bit green as an ATD PKer, but I think he's somewhat better than seventies makes him out to be.

But still, xxx > Marchand any day of the week.

 

[chaosrevolver]

And I prefer Marchand to a couple LWs already taken.

In any case, I guess I am learning what happens when one goes outside ATD canon. Next year I'll be sure to draft a bunch of old time players who I can claim is good at X because I find a quote or two saying so.

I think Marchand could have a better case next year and certainly the year after just with how he has played this year. I think he could fit in as a nice player in the MLD..not a star but a really good complimentary piece that can play on any line.