ATD 2017 Draft Thread II

[ResilientBeast]

Also about the love affair with Broadbent I think he went too early again his offence is not all that special for someone around here.

 

[Johnny Engine]

There are some players you can understand getting overrated in the ATD - Neely, Gainey, Fedorov, and quite a few others* with sexy skill sets who played more recently in big markets, but Broadbent is just mystifying as an ATD cliche. If anyone wants a reason to call us nerds with a weird obsession, "consistently overrated Punch Broadbent" is a good place to start.

*no disrespect to the GMs who have those players. Merely saying those are easy players to overrate, not that you made bad picks.

 

[tony d]

Time to review recent picks again:

Punch Broadbent: Admittedly I don't know much about him but a lot of people seem to think he gets took to soon. Reading his page on Joe Pelletier though I can see a fit on your team so much like Neely for me it's a good pick.

Jack Crawford: A good defensive defenseman for sure and will make a good partner for the more offensive Lester Patrick.

Patrik Elias: Good pick and a name I would have considered at 208. You're playing with modano but I also read he played centre, ? is how much centre did he play? If he did could show his versatility and ability to play multiple positions.

Pat Stapleton; Good pick, reads like a good offensive partner for the more defensive Flaman, completes your top 4 on defense as well.

Alexander Ragulin: Ragulin is a good pick, you have Karlsson playing with him as well which makes sense given karlsson's mainly offense. Very good pick.

Mickey mackay: My pick, gives me good strength at centre with Boucher and Mackay.

Anyway those are my thoughts on recent picks. Looking forward to seeing who gets picked today.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Goals
1919-20 NHL 19 (10th)
1921-22 NHL 32 (1st)
1922-23 NHL 14 (8th)

He also has a 6th and 7th finish in the NHA

1919-20 NHL 25 (10th)
1921-22 NHL 46 (1st)

These finishes are in a split league to boot, Broadbent is horribly overrated, Neely

1989-90 NHL 55 (3rd)
1990-91 NHL 51 (2nd)
1993-94 NHL 50 (8th)
1994-95 NHL 27 (9th)

Has better goals finishes and played in a consolidate league and was made out of glass.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I wasn't around much this weekend...following up on my Tony Esposito pick. Most know he has a great AS record, but some have concerns over his playoff performances. Here is an interesting bit of data that was presented in the Top Goalies Project by ContrarionGoaltender showing how Esposito performed in the playoffs compared to expectations:

Playoff numbers for team success vs. expected:

Rank|Goalie|Series W|Exp Series|Diff|%|Cups|Exp Cups|Diff|%
1|Turk Broda|15|10.34|+4.66|+45%|5|3.07|+1.93|+63%
2|Charlie Gardiner|5|3.10|+1.90|+61%|1|0.28|+0.72|+257%
3|Ed Belfour|19|17.77|+1.23|+7%|1|1.65|-0.65|-39%
4|Johnny Bower|8|6.97|+1.03|+15%|3|2.37|+0.63|+27%
5|Tony Esposito|9|8.43|+0.57|+7%|0|0.76|-0.76|-100%
6|Bernie Parent|9|8.48|+0.52|+6%|2|0.99|+1.01|+102%
7|Georges Vezina|3|2.60|+0.40|+15%|3|2.60|+0.40|+15%
8|Clint Benedict|5|5.55|-0.55|-10%|3|3.80|-0.80|-21%
9|Frank Brimsek|7|8.37|-1.37|-16%|2|2.84|-0.84|-30%
10|Bill Durnan|5|7.4|-2.40|-32%|2|3.05|-1.05|-34%

(Note: These are NHL numbers only, and for Vezina and Benedict Cups refers to league championships. My system can't really deal with games played against western teams because they didn't play a common schedule with the NHL champs. It should be noted however that during the NHL years Benedict was 4-0 in the series against the western champions with the Sens and Maroons while Vezina's Canadiens were 1-1 with the 1919 series not completed. If those results were incorporated it is likely that Benedict's playoff team record was as good or maybe even be a bit better than Vezina's.)

CG made comments on each player following this table, here's what he had to say about Esposito:

I think Tony Esposito's playoff failures are generally overblown. He also has a very strong regular season record, ranking #1 all-time among goalies in regular season GVT. That is in part because of the lack of parity in the 1970s, but in terms of career regular season value Esposito certainly rivals anybody in this group.

Some highlights from 70's Bio (Link):
AS Record: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7
Hart Record: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 9, 11
Four significant playoff sv% rankings - among goalies with 300+ minutes: (1st/5-1971, 2nd/13-1982, 3rd/5-1974, 3rd/13-1980)
Top-10 in Sv% 12 Times - among goalies with 1500+ minutes - every full season but two (1st-1970, 1st-1972, 2nd-1973, 2nd-1974, 2nd-1978, 2nd-1980, 4th-1971, 4th-1979, 6th/26-1976, 7th/25-1975, 8th/30-1983, 9th/31-1977)
Top-3 in minutes played 11 times (1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd)

 

[ResilientBeast]

Our hyping has sowed seeds of doubt in seventie's mind

 

[seventieslord]

Well, let's see who was right. I'm taking a linemate for Gilmour and Lafleur. I thought there was only one ideal choice. I needed:

- Size (Lafleur is average size and Gilmour below average)
- Toughness (Lafleur was nonphysical and Gilmour is gritty but won't scare anyone here)
- offensive numbers befitting a top line
- Goal scoring bias (Lafleur is balanced but Gilmour is a playmaking center)
- defense optional (Gilmour as the designated backchecker is more than enough for a top ATD line)
- playoff greatness optional (and some might say overkill on this line, considering the linemates)

Regina selects Keith Tkachuk, LW.

Tkachuk is one of four available offensive LWs who stand well above the rest purely on offense (they're all within 3% of eachother by VsX), and he's not only the most goals-biased of the four (50.5% goals), he's also the only one whom I'd call a power forward. He's 6'3", 235 (325 in real time!!) with 2200 PIMs and 62 NHL fights (23-8-21 on dropyourgloves.com).

He was top-5 in goals five times, including one goal scoring title, and top-20 nine times. Never top-10 in points, but eight times top-25. Compared to the other guys in the running for best offensive LW, he had the least help scoring points over the years, the best longevity, and needed the fewest games to post the same points results (missed 41 in his best 7 seasons). So needless to say, I'm pretty convinced of his offensive chops.

Getting Tkachuk was a must for this Regina first line, as he ensures the line remains very strong offensively while having enough of everything a good scoring line needs to succeed. I don't even want to think about who I'd have had to take if I didn't get Tkachuk.

Downsides: As I touched on, he has no defensive resume to speak of. He also has a weak playoff record and took a lot of penalties.

So, who guessed correctly? If you didn't, send me a PM because I want to know.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Figured Tkachuk..

 

[Iceman]

I guessed wrong.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Guessed wrong

 

[markrander87]

I did not see Fatty T coming....

 

[King Forsberg]

Despite knowing who seventies was going to take for hours now I'm still torn on what I want to do. I'll have a pick in about an hour from now.

 

[JFA87-66-99]

About my Punch Broadbent pick. I guess I can see were some would say he's overrated, but this is the Atd we are trying to build teams here. Punch Broadbent was a powed forward, I'd like to think of him as a better version of (undrafted 90s power forwards) The guy scored a goal in 16 straight games, and how many times throughout history has a player accomplished that feat, so Punch can score goals. Punch can also fight, check, and is noted for being a good backchecker. I think it was said that in the 1921 Stanley cup finals (not sure the exact year)that he was the one playing the best defense and shutting down his opponents, not Frank Nighbor. So there we know that Punch can be a good 2-way responsible player. I drafted Punch to play specifIcally with Mario. He'll go to net, corners, do a lot of dirty work and create time and space for Mario to do his thing. With him next to Lemieux opponents better think twice about messing with Mario. We all know what Mario can do with a this type of player on his line and I think of Broadbent as the best power forward that Mario has ever played with.

 

[bluesfan94]

About my Punch Broadbent pick. I guess I can see were some would say he's overrated, but this is the Atd we are trying to build teams here. Punch Broadbent was a powed forward, I'd like to think of him as a better version of (undrafted 90s power forwards) The guy scored a goal in 16 straight games, and how many times throughout history has a player accomplished that feat, so Punch can score goals. Punch can also fight, check, and is noted for being a good backchecker. I think it was said that in the 1921 Stanley cup finals (not sure the exact year)that he was the one playing the best defense and shutting down his opponents, not Frank Nighbor. So there we know that Punch can be a good 2-way responsible player. I drafted Punch to play specifIcally with Mario. He'll go to net, corners, do a lot of dirty work and create time and space for Mario to do his thing. With him next to Lemieux opponents better think twice about messing with Mario. We all know what Mario can do with a this type of player on his line and I think of Broadbent as the best power forward that Mario has ever played with.

Not that I'm arguing with your conclusion (mostly because I don't know enough about Broadbent to do so), but this argument doesn't hold water for me. I get that it's impressive to score consecutively like that, but it doesn't really speak to his attributes overall. To illustrate, imagine this hypothetical:

Player A
82 GP 50 G

Player B
82 GP 16 G (but he scored in 16 consecutive games)

I would still say that Player A is the better goal scorer and I wouldn't really be convinced that Player B can score goals.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Not that I'm arguing with your conclusion (mostly because I don't know enough about Broadbent to do so), but this argument doesn't hold water for me. I get that it's impressive to score consecutively like that, but it doesn't really speak to his attributes overall. To illustrate, imagine this hypothetical:

Player A
82 GP 50 G

Player B
82 GP 16 G (but he scored in 16 consecutive games)

I would still say that Player A is the better goal scorer and I wouldn't really be convinced that Player B can score goals.

Another important factor is when Broadbent accomplished this feat, it was in the highest scoring era in NHL history.

 

[seventieslord]

Broadbent gets highly overvalued on paper and continues to. However.... if you were set on getting a pugnacious RW, how many better options were there? Assuming you want a guy who can fight and win his share, and you don't take a small guy all too seriously, I see two other reasonable options, and neither stands head and shoulders above.

The best thing would be for Broadbent to get taken 100 picks later where he belongs on paper, sure, but his specialized skill set puts him on a number of guys' radar and they end up in a game of chicken. It's understandable.

 

[JFA87-66-99]

Another important factor is when Broadbent accomplished this feat, it was in the highest scoring era in NHL history.

Did anybody ever score in 16 consecutive games ever? Not saying that makes him the greatest goal scorer ever but saying that it is a pretty impressive accomplishment regardless of league or era.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Did anybody ever score in 16 consecutive games ever? Not saying that makes him the greatest goal scorer ever but saying that it is a pretty impressive accomplishment regardless of league or era.

I think he's the only one

 

[JFA87-66-99]

Does anyone know we're I can find the list of retro conn smythe winners?

 

[ResilientBeast]

Does anyone know we're I can find the list of retro conn smythe winners?

Here

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1990741

Just skimming the list the sheer lack of PCHA players even when they won is a little suspect

Edit: It's cut off at 1917 so that would make sense

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Did anybody ever score in 16 consecutive games ever? Not saying that makes him the greatest goal scorer ever but saying that it is a pretty impressive accomplishment regardless of league or era.

Of course, its an impressive accomplishment, regardless of league or era, because as you said, no one else did it. But, if 1921-22 had the same scoring environment as 2015-16, the 16 games could have been reduced to something like 10 games, which is still impressive, but not as obscene as 16 games.

Its the same principle with Gretzky and his 200 point seasons. If you do not adjust the numbers and compare them to the current scoring environment, the totals look like they were put up by god himself. However, if you adjust them (I think the number that's usually put out is ~150 points), theyre still absurb numbers. However, 150 points sounds much less impressive than 200 if you dont put any context behind it.

 

[jarek]

This caught me off guard a bit.

Drew Doughty team TOI/GP since his rookie season:

Team TOI/GP: 1st (2009) (+2:51), 1st (2010) (+2:22), 1st (2011) (+2:27), 1st (2012) (+2:23), 1st (2013) (+4:05), 1st (2014) (+3:25), 1st (2015) (+5:48), 1st (2016) (+4:58)

 

[JFA87-66-99]

This caught me off guard a bit.

Drew Doughty team TOI/GP since his rookie season:

Team TOI/GP: 1st (2009) (+2:51), 1st (2010) (+2:22), 1st (2011) (+2:27), 1st (2012) (+2:23), 1st (2013) (+4:05), 1st (2014) (+3:25), 1st (2015) (+5:48), 1st (2016) (+4:58)

Very impressive. Doughty plays All situations

 

[jarek]

Very impressive. Doughty plays All situations

The fact he's been consistently leading his team in TOI/GP even since his rookie season (and by no small amount) is quite telling to how important he is to his team.

 

[JFA87-66-99]

The fact he's been consistently leading his team in TOI/GP even since his rookie season (and by no small amount) is quite telling to how important he is to his team.

Exactly hes the most complete defensemen of the 2010's