Prospect Info: At 16th Overall the Rangers Select Brennan Othmann
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- Apr 16, 2012
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Holy moly. This is fairly brain dead. I think he just wanted to f*** with the guy demanding an update. Seems like a dick.
Amazing Kreiderman
Registered User
- Apr 11, 2011
- 45,068
- 40,913
All these formulas are arbitrary. It's hardly an exact science.
- Jan 18, 2012
- 35,202
- 53,767
Wow. Further confirmation dogshit model is dogshit
does having wildly different players in terms of style and production as your comparables for a prospect not make you think that your model might be nonsense?
- Jan 18, 2012
- 35,202
- 53,767
He's TJ Oshie, give or take, with an elite shot.
PuckLuck3043
Stairway To Heaven
PuckLuck3043
Stairway To Heaven
The model is definitely imperfect for gauging the Junior/NHL transition but I think the core takeaway here is that Brennan is now more likely to be an everyday player in the NHL given that he can score 50 goals... But given his production curve, 50 goals in the OHL at his age is not unheard of and doesn't guarantee success.
Statistically he's similar to Christian Thomas and we all know how that worked out... But his size, drive, and the difference in scoring between him and his next closest teammate hint that he may have more staying power. His size helps, but the differential in scoring between him and his teammates suggest that he missed out on points because of the lack of ability of his line mates and that he can still score at a higher rate.
I'm hoping for an upgraded version of Jakub Vrana or a T.J. Oshie and if he actually hits that, I'll be pumped.
Statistically he's similar to Christian Thomas and we all know how that worked out... But his size, drive, and the difference in scoring between him and his next closest teammate hint that he may have more staying power. His size helps, but the differential in scoring between him and his teammates suggest that he missed out on points because of the lack of ability of his line mates and that he can still score at a higher rate.
I'm hoping for an upgraded version of Jakub Vrana or a T.J. Oshie and if he actually hits that, I'll be pumped.
broadwayblue
Registered User
An upgraded version of Oshie...so a 30g 30-35a scorer if he pans out?
Lone Ranger
Registered User
I plugged his numbers into my algorithm and got John Davidson as his most likely NHL comparable. So now we just have to hope that Brennan can pull off the killer Seventies porn mustache.
Upgraded version of Vrana or a T.J. Oshie, not upgraded version of either. That would be a pretty big bet on his skill and it's not easy to do what Oshie does, much less do it better.
Just watched a profile from when he was younger and his coach said he's following that new wave of hockey player, in the mold of Marner, who likes to stop and find trailers like they have eyes in the back of their heads. Now that gets me cised.
Okay so underlying metrics do have their worth but two numbers stating nhler probabibility and star power are kind of obscure.
The important thing to look at in my eyes would be the microstats. His retrievals, his ozone start %, quality of teammates, quality of competition etc. This is hard to gauge because in reality, you want a kid driving play. We dont necessarily have access to that data so we can't make the most of it. We would need to request league wide data and then create models off that.
If his model is just doing adjustments for the league and basing their production against other players at their age, then it's a faulty model. I'm sorry. It just is.
Peyton krebs, although not having the best season ever as a rookie, is one of those guys who carried his team, got injured, and scared off a bunch of teams leading vgk to take him. Why am I mentioning this? He had his stock lowered a lot but he was a good player and I think he will become one at his peak. (Buffalo needs that jump anyhow. They are slowly building a really good team. Adding depth and getting to stay motivated to become stars is the difference.)
Otthman to me is in the same boat. He is not stylistically the same and krebs is a center, but otthman gets underrated because his point totals are not as gaudy as others have had in the past. The talent is there and we may have an eventual steal.
The biggest thing is development. We, for some wierd reason, suck at developing forwards to become stars right away. I think drury is trying to change that. It's so hard to discern what drury and gorton have done because it is all linked. He was the agm so him not investing more into development is on him as well. However, from what statboy said, getting him a skating coach was a top priority and drury handled that? If the skating coach has an elite track record, i am totally on board. That was otthman's biggest weakness. He needs to beef up and we have to be okay with him being unable to play a heavy game as he figures out the nhl.
Our future depends on these yiung guys. I hope we draft a center in the 2nd rd( our first isnt there if we make ecf, so im hoping we just win the cup.) I know you draft bpa but that's first round. In later rounds, you can afford to pick a player by position with traits you see translating and rounding out their game.
The important thing to look at in my eyes would be the microstats. His retrievals, his ozone start %, quality of teammates, quality of competition etc. This is hard to gauge because in reality, you want a kid driving play. We dont necessarily have access to that data so we can't make the most of it. We would need to request league wide data and then create models off that.
If his model is just doing adjustments for the league and basing their production against other players at their age, then it's a faulty model. I'm sorry. It just is.
Peyton krebs, although not having the best season ever as a rookie, is one of those guys who carried his team, got injured, and scared off a bunch of teams leading vgk to take him. Why am I mentioning this? He had his stock lowered a lot but he was a good player and I think he will become one at his peak. (Buffalo needs that jump anyhow. They are slowly building a really good team. Adding depth and getting to stay motivated to become stars is the difference.)
Otthman to me is in the same boat. He is not stylistically the same and krebs is a center, but otthman gets underrated because his point totals are not as gaudy as others have had in the past. The talent is there and we may have an eventual steal.
The biggest thing is development. We, for some wierd reason, suck at developing forwards to become stars right away. I think drury is trying to change that. It's so hard to discern what drury and gorton have done because it is all linked. He was the agm so him not investing more into development is on him as well. However, from what statboy said, getting him a skating coach was a top priority and drury handled that? If the skating coach has an elite track record, i am totally on board. That was otthman's biggest weakness. He needs to beef up and we have to be okay with him being unable to play a heavy game as he figures out the nhl.
Our future depends on these yiung guys. I hope we draft a center in the 2nd rd( our first isnt there if we make ecf, so im hoping we just win the cup.) I know you draft bpa but that's first round. In later rounds, you can afford to pick a player by position with traits you see translating and rounding out their game.
The Crypto Guy
Registered User
- Jun 26, 2017
- 29,134
- 38,738
Man that guy is such a clown or anyone who actually takes his garbage at face value.
ElLeetch
Registered User
- Mar 28, 2018
- 3,262
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Daves a mess
Registered User
- Jan 8, 2014
- 4,739
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I like how he looked in camp last fall. He didn't look out of place at all. He stuck around for a reason.
Beer League Sniper
Homeless Man's Rick Nash
Not big on nuance, eh?
Stats are stats. Depending on how they're interpreted and manipulated, you can come to very faulty conclusions. On the flip side, they can also provide very valuable insight that can't easily be discerned by eye-test alone.
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
Juniors is hard to get a definitive good/bad analysis from because there are plenty of 50+ goal scorers who flame out in the NHL or become just regular players that get paid the minimum. And vice versa where you'll have random ass players who only score 10 goals a season become better NHLers.
I do think there are some appropriate concerns about Othmann's game, some of which can be attributed to the team surrounding him.
I think 44% chance to be an NHLer and sub 10% chance to be a star is accurate for Othmann right now.
I do think there are some appropriate concerns about Othmann's game, some of which can be attributed to the team surrounding him.
I think 44% chance to be an NHLer and sub 10% chance to be a star is accurate for Othmann right now.
OTGHockey
Registered User
- Mar 25, 2022
- 57
- 62
Well, age can certainly be a factor in Junior hockey. At 19 years old, Othmann is playing against guys who are in the 16-20 range. That's a wide range of kids, many who are still developing physically, giving players who perhaps develop quicker, or are at the end of their physical development, an edge.
The other thing to consider, is their level of maturity. There's definitely players who come out of Junior who aren't mature enough to make the jump, or are not prepared to do the work. We don't tend to get a very clear picture of that before the players get here, it doesn't do a team much good to talk about the deficits of a player before they get here, and so you tend to heat more of a one-sided view of how they are mature beyond their years (e.g. Lafreniere or Schneider).
Some guys like Pavel Brendl for instance, never seem to figure that out. Others might take some time (e.g. Tony DeAngelo), while others seem to get it pretty quickly - Schneider perhaps being an example of that.
For me, Othmann seems to come with a lot of characteristics that would suggest he's going to make the most of his opportunity in the way that someone like Ryan Callahan (who came out of college) did. Does that mean he'll be successful in the NHL. I don't know, but he does seem to be a promising prospect at this point, and while his chances of being an NHL star might be low (as you would expect from a mid-first round pick) there's still plenty to look forward to.
It doesn't hurt either that the Rangers don't have to rush him into the line-up.
The other thing to consider, is their level of maturity. There's definitely players who come out of Junior who aren't mature enough to make the jump, or are not prepared to do the work. We don't tend to get a very clear picture of that before the players get here, it doesn't do a team much good to talk about the deficits of a player before they get here, and so you tend to heat more of a one-sided view of how they are mature beyond their years (e.g. Lafreniere or Schneider).
Some guys like Pavel Brendl for instance, never seem to figure that out. Others might take some time (e.g. Tony DeAngelo), while others seem to get it pretty quickly - Schneider perhaps being an example of that.
For me, Othmann seems to come with a lot of characteristics that would suggest he's going to make the most of his opportunity in the way that someone like Ryan Callahan (who came out of college) did. Does that mean he'll be successful in the NHL. I don't know, but he does seem to be a promising prospect at this point, and while his chances of being an NHL star might be low (as you would expect from a mid-first round pick) there's still plenty to look forward to.
It doesn't hurt either that the Rangers don't have to rush him into the line-up.
Amazing Kreiderman
Registered User
- Apr 11, 2011
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He probably meant "juniors". Callahan also had a 50-goal season in the OHL by the way
Was his overage year though
But really, a peak Ryan Callahan would be a decent get in the draft
egelband
Registered User
- Sep 6, 2008
- 16,197
- 15,058
There aren’t metrics that cover heart and determination and ability to learn and even health, really. It’s very dubious applying numbers only. There needs to be at least to an extent, the eye test and interviews with the player, coaches, etc.
I think most here would agree with me on that. I’m just mentioning in the context of these folks we’re talking about who tout formulas.
I think most here would agree with me on that. I’m just mentioning in the context of these folks we’re talking about who tout formulas.
Does this guy crash the net? i see a lot of his goals on breakaways or on the rush. He reminds me of a Evander Kane
