Prospect Info: At 16th Overall the Rangers Select Brennan Othmann

[duhmetreE]

Othmann ranked as the 12th best prospect by Button:

Blueline Power: Sabres' D-Man tops Button's annual top prospects list - TSN.ca

Craig Button has seen the future of the NHL and it’s in 3D. TSN’s Director of Scouting has defencemen 1-2-3 on his 2022 list of the Top 50 NHL-affiliated Prospects: No. 1 Owen Power of Buffalo, No. 2 Jake Sanderson of Ottawa, and No. 3 Simon Edvinsson of Detroit.

www.tsn.ca

What a great pick by Drury and company.

Drury has been crushing it tbh.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Drury has been crushing it tbh.

Yeah but what about that lack of scoring growth? It's a near death sentence, bro.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Yeah but what about that lack of scoring growth? It's a near death sentence, bro.

That dude's take was so bad he like retired from doing stat posting on twitter lol.

If your model tells you something that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, maybe you should consider that your model may have a blind spot instead of just believing it blindly. If it's tell you that a consensus top 20 pick is actually only the 175th best player in the draft and has a <1% chance of making the NHL based on his scoring not being too good in 15 games in a Swiss pro league during a pandemic as a 17 year old, I think a logical person would think "hm, maybe I should dive deeper on this particular player because there's no way my model can be this far off" but too many of these guys fall in love with their models and legitimately have the idea that they're right and everyone else is actually wrong in a situation like this.

 

[duhmetreE]

Yeah but what about that lack of scoring growth? It's a near death sentence, bro.

you ever watch the Spitting Chiclets podcast with Nathan Gerbe? He was shitting on the Swiss league and their coaches with their really bad/dumb systems.

Maybe it played a factor in things but using just stats to make bold/firm predictions is about as dumb as it gets.

 

[rangersfansince08]

That dude's take was so bad he like retired from doing stat posting on twitter lol.

If your model tells you something that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, maybe you should consider that your model may have a blind spot instead of just believing it blindly. If it's tell you that a consensus top 20 pick is actually only the 175th best player in the draft and has a <1% chance of making the NHL based on his scoring not being too good in 15 games in a Swiss pro league during a pandemic as a 17 year old, I think a logical person would think "hm, maybe I should dive deeper on this particular player because there's no way my model can be this far off" but too many of these guys fall in love with their models and legitimately have the idea that they're right and everyone else is actually wrong in a situation like this.

Its like he doesn't know what an outlier is.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

you ever watch the Spitting Chiclets podcast with Nathan Gerbe? He was shitting on the Swiss league and their coaches with their really bad/dumb systems.

Maybe it played a factor in things but using just stats to make bold/firm predictions is about as dumb as it gets.

Total games played by North American draft-eligible prospects in the Swiss league prior to Othmann:

3

 

[mas0764]

What about Othmann+ for Wyatt Johnston or Marco Rossi? Since the ratings are similar. We add for position premium.

 

[duhmetreE]

What about Othmann+ for Wyatt Johnston or Marco Rossi? Since the ratings are similar. We add for position premium.

why would they do that? Teams are not trading high potential centers unless there's a major blockage. LAK prospects are the exception though

Also doubt Drury trades his first draft pick that has exceeded expectations.

 

[mas0764]

why would they do that?

Cause we are overpaying by adding a "plus"?

Teams are not trading high potential centers unless there's a major blockage. LAK prospects are the exception though

What if they'd rather a better forward for a lesser center?

Also doubt Drury trades his first draft pick that has exceeded expectations.

I think if I foundd out that Drury had the opportunity to trade Othmann for Rossi or Johnston and passed, I'd probably be upset.

 

[duhmetreE]

Cause we are overpaying by adding a "plus"?



What if they'd rather a better forward for a lesser center?



I think if I foundd out that Drury had the opportunity to trade Othmann for Rossi or Johnston and passed, I'd probably be upset.

We could have drafted Wyatt Johnson. Drury has a type. Not sure Wyatt fits that mold.

It's time for the org to start looking at Centers and not overpaying for them.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

We could have drafted Wyatt Johnson. Drury has a type. Not sure Wyatt fits that mold.

It's time for the org to start looking at Centers and not overpaying for them.

There are a lot of teams kicking themselves for not drafting Johnston right now. Looking like an amazing pick at 23rd, esp since Stars also drafted down from 15 to 23 and got him(adding a 2nd and 5th round pick)

 

[mas0764]

We could have drafted Wyatt Johnson. Drury has a type. Not sure Wyatt fits that mold.

It's time for the org to start looking at Centers and not overpaying for them.

I wish we would.

 

[RangerBoy]

Othmann is very mature for his age. He spoke to the Rangers media during training camp last fall. Very polished for an 18 year old kid.



Schneider is also very mature for his age.



The Canadian boys are low maintenance guys.

 

[UnSandvich]

What about Othmann+ for Wyatt Johnston or Marco Rossi? Since the ratings are similar. We add for position premium.

Johnston has 32 more points than Othmann in 3 more games. The + is probably at least a 1st.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Johnston has 32 more points than Othmann in 3 more games. The + is probably at least a 1st.

Johnston plays on a much better team, with a significantly better supporting cast. I wouldn't trade Othmann for Johnston straight up simply because it is far from a guarantee that either become NHL players. It's just too risky. Rather stick with the kid you drafted than look foolish later on.

Right now, they could just as well be the next Christian Thomas.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

 

[I Eat Crow]

I'm willing to wager a decent amount that he gets his 9 names to start the 2022-2023 year, and would place a smaller but significant wager he sticks beyond that.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I'm willing to wager a decent amount that he gets his 9 names to start the 2022-2023 year, and would place a smaller but significant wager he sticks beyond that.

39 game cut off (accrued seasons) is the one GMs are more concerned about.

 

[RangerBoy]

Seth Jarvis made the Hurricanes keep him. His play was too good. Othmann's play could force the Rangers to keep him for the first month of the season and see how things go.

 

[rangersfansince08]

Seth Jarvis made the Hurricanes keep him. His play was too good. Othmann's play could force the Rangers to keep him for the first month of the season and see how things go.

Sutff like that never happens to us

 

[bhamill]

Sutff like that never happens to us

K'Andre Miller off the top of my head.

 

[JimmyG89]

Sutff like that never happens to us

I wouldn't say never. I'm pretty sure Chytil impressed year 1 and they kept him up pretty much all season. Del Zotto was also someone that forced the Rangers to keep him on the team. It has been a while though.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Sutff like that never happens to us

Really?

Just on the current roster alone we have 3 players who played a significant role on the Rangers in their D+2 seasons, which is what next year will be for Othmann.

Chytil and Miller both played their full D+2 seasons in the NHL and Schneider will have played half of his D+2 season in the NHL.

Each of these guys forced their way into staying in the lineup in important roles based on their strong play. Chytil as a top 9 forward, Miller as the 2LD and Schneider as the 3RD.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

K'Andre Miller off the top of my head.

Really?

Just on the current roster alone we have 3 players who played a significant role on the Rangers in their D+2 seasons, which is what next year will be for Othmann.

Chytil and Miller both played their full D+2 seasons in the NHL and Schneider will have played half of his D+2 season in the NHL.

Each of these guys forced their way into staying in the lineup in important roles based on their strong play. Chytil as a top 9 forward, Miller as the 2LD and Schneider as the 3RD.

Miller was in his D+3 season

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Yea we have soo much room for another winger to develop at the moment. We dont have Laf, Kakko, or Kravtsov who will need those important minutes or anything.

Another year in the OHL for him. Zero reason to rush him, he still can make improvements on his game down there.