As of 2021 - is Crosby vs Ovechkin's all-time ranking finalized, or can one still surpass the other?

[Zuluss]

Crosby's career pace is 38 goals per 82 games. Stamkos's is 42 goals per 82 games. Crosby the much better playoff goal-scorer, with both players with 2 rockets. Not exactly a huge gap?

I think Stamkos's career trajectory as a goal-scorer looked to be much better than Crosby at one point, but he slowed down tremendously due to injuries. So in the end - it's fairly close.

Stamkos, best % margins over #10 in goals
67-46-38-32-30-10-9
Crosby, best % margins over #10 in goals
46-29-9-6

It is not close at all. Neither peak, nor prime.

 

[bobholly39]

Stamkos, best % margins over #10 in goals
67-46-38-32-30-10-9
Crosby, best % margins over #10 in goals
46-29-9-6

It is not close at all. Neither peak, nor prime.

Peak isn't close. Crosby doesn't have a goal-scoring season as good as Stamkos's 60 goal-scoring season.
Prime? It's closer.

 

[wetcoast]

The way I see it is that Ovechkin has a very good chance to end his career with a resume like this:
-> #1 all-time in raw goals
-> #1 all-time in adjusted goals (with an extremely dominant lead when you factor in GP over Hower/Jagr)
-> The most dominant (retro) rocket trophy case of all time, by FAR
-> #1 all-time in power play goals
-> #1 in OT goals
-> #1 in game-winning goals
-> 4th all-time in Hart Trophies

When you then go to compare Ovechkin and Crosby you'll have to consider all of the above, and then factor in that Ovechkin also had a better Peak than Crosby did.

Will the fact that Crosby was slightly better overall over the course of their whole careers matter when we are talking about the GOAT goal scorer that had a better peak? Who's to say. The issue is that outside of team success, there is likely very little that will differentiate what Crosby has done as an individual from the likes of 5-10 other players in NHL history. But Ovechkin will have the claim to multiple things that no-one else has done.

Funny that 6 of the 7 things you listed all revolved around goals eh?

This analysis was much better and more telling.

Crosby is the better player. It is close, and it is incredible how both have managed to stay playing at a high level for 15 years.

Crosby finished top 3 in Hart voting 7 (2-4-1) times. Ovechkin finished top 3 (3-2-0) in Hart voting 5 times. Both have 3 Pearson Awards (I don't know if voting results even exist). Crosby is slightly ahead in Hart Trophy Shares (500 vs. 412).

Crosby's top 5 point finishes: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 5. A total of 9 times top 5 in scoring (this is excluding his 10-11 season)
Ovechkin's top 5 point finishes: 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4. A total of 6 times top 5 in scoring.

Ovechkin is clearly the better goal-scorer. Crosby is clearly the better playmaker.

Crosby has generally played on better teams, but has also generally been the better playoff performer. Both have their playoff warts, but Crosby's ability to climb to 7th all time in playoff points, mostly in a low-scoring era, is phenomenal. Crosby will likely climb to 5th all time in playoff points, with an outside chance at 4th. Ovechkin's 2007-2010 playoff dominance gets overshadowed by poor team performance.

Neither have excellent international careers, though that may speak more to their era than anything. Forwards just don't dominate international hockey post-Gretzky.

Crosby has the second most post-1968 AS finishes of any centre behind Gretzky with a result of (4-4-2).

Ovechkin has by far the highest post-1968 AS finishes of any LW with a result of (7-2-3). Obviously comes with the huge caveat of difference in position competition.

I think both are top 10 forwards of all-time, with limited ability to move up unless they return to peak scoring/Hart form, or someone put together more legendary playoff runs.

 

[wetcoast]

I don't like the poll choices and won't vote. I have Crosby ahead, but Ovechkin still throws the puck into the net whenever he feels like it...so, it's not impossible that Ovechkin can make the run.

This was my first thought as well but I also think that people might be over reacting to the last 20ish games and not taking into account the 5 previous seasons.

that being said the poll options are awkward to say the least.

 

[MVP of West Hollywd]

I will probably rank Crosby ahead barring an unlikely difference in their longevity from this point like Ovie becoming Tom Brady and Crosby fading super fast

 

[wetcoast]

Ovechkin played in 3 meaningless exhibition games that the players on teams that had an automatic berth into the playoffs obviously did not care about.

They are labeled as playoff games but they really weren't.

Funny that the NHL recognizes them as playoff games and the only ones saying that they aren't are trying to hide something.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Crosby was much better last season. And in 19-20 had 47 points in 41 games whole ovechkin had 67in 68. Then again crosby was comfortably better in 18-19

 

[wetcoast]

Here's a question - would a 3rd-place scoring finish this year add to his legacy?

Sure it would but the season isn't ending today.

 

[wetcoast]

There was a guy in my middle school, my chatwingman in Grade 8 English, who went on to cool-ly host the only good local rock radio station (this was the 1980s, pre-Internet). He was on top of the world at age 20. ... I knew it was his ceiling. Over a decade later he cleaned office buildings after dark. I doubt he has done much more.
.

Interesting but....?

 

[Zuluss]

Peak isn't close. Crosby doesn't have a goal-scoring season as good as Stamkos's 60 goal-scoring season.
Prime? It's closer.

So 5 Rocket-worthy seasons (with better margins over #10 in goals than what Crosby won his 2nd Rocket with) vs. only 2 such seasons is "close prime", then here is another example of a similar difference

Stamkos, best % margins over #10 in goals
67-46-38-32-30-10-9
Crosby, best % margins over #10 in goals
46-29-9-6

Player A, best % margins over #10 in goals
73-42-33-33-28-26-25-9-9
Player B, best % margins over #10 in goals
58-31-13-11-10-5

Same thing to you, "peak isn't close, prime is closer"?

 

[Tmu84]

Crosby was much better last season. And in 19-20 had 47 points in 41 games whole ovechkin had 67in 68. Then again crosby was comfortably better in 18-19

18-19:
Crosby: 79 GP, 100 pts, 35 G, 65 A
Ovi: 81 GP, 89 pts, 51 G, 38 A

19-20:
Crosby: 41 GP, 47 pts, 16 G, 31 A
Ovi: 68 GP, 67 pts, 48 G, 19 A

Imho, 19-20 easily belongs to Ovi. I mean look at the difference with goals per game, it's not close! Goals > assists each and every time and should be taken into account in those comparisons. 18-19 is close, but this also goes to Ovi, imho. Ovi's 16 more goals easily makes up for the 11 pts difference. The last time I checked, there are 2 assists for each goal scored...

As usual, these forums consistently overvalue points (assists) and undervalue goals.
Newsflash: not all points are created equal and one really should always take a deeper look at the composition of the points instead of just comparing the raw point totals, which is really not fair towards high scoring wingers like Ovi. Am I really the only one who find this so disturbing when reading these forums? Isn't it the primary purpose to score goals to win games in Hockey, not assists? Imagine Basket ball if we also would count assists.

Anyway, I voted: 'I have both players so close that I can see either/or finish ahead depending on rest of career'. I think the argument is still not over. If Ovi will actually manage to break Gretzky's goal record, that is simply an incredible achievement and really speaks of the remarkably consistent career Ovi has had as a goalscorer. Simply legendary. Exciting times!

 

[jigglysquishy]

Goals > assists each and every time and should be taken into account in those comparisons.

I don't think this is true at all and demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of the flow of hockey.

Is a 60 goal, 30 assist player likely better than a 30 goal 60 assist player? Yes, but I don't think the logic of goal>assist "each and every time" would stand up to how offensive production actually works.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

18-19:
Crosby: 79 GP, 100 pts, 35 G, 65 A
Ovi: 81 GP, 89 pts, 51 G, 38 A

19-20:
Crosby: 41 GP, 47 pts, 16 G, 31 A
Ovi: 68 GP, 67 pts, 48 G, 19 A

Imho, 19-20 easily belongs to Ovi. I mean look at the difference with goals per game, it's not close! Goals > assists each and every time and should be taken into account in those comparisons. 18-19 is close, but this also goes to Ovi, imho. Ovi's 16 more goals easily makes up for the 11 pts difference. The last time I checked, there are 2 assists for each goal scored...

As usual, these forums consistently overvalue points (assists) and undervalue goals.
Newsflash: not all points are created equal and one really should always take a deeper look at the composition of the points instead of just comparing the raw point totals, which is really not fair towards high scoring wingers like Ovi. Am I really the only one who find this so disturbing when reading these forums? Isn't it the primary purpose to score goals to win games in Hockey, not assists? Imagine Basket ball if we also would count assists.

Anyway, I voted: 'I have both players so close that I can see either/or finish ahead depending on rest of career'. I think the argument is still not over. If Ovi will actually manage to break Gretzky's goal record, that is simply an incredible achievement and really speaks of the remarkably consistent career Ovi has had as a goalscorer. Simply legendary. Exciting times!

18-19 was clearly crosby and the hart voting and everything else showed it. 11 more points and a far better all around game which led to 34 first place votes for the selke which led to a strong 4th place finish. 19-20 crosby was at a 94 point pace while ov was at a 81 point pace. Again if crosby plays the full season comfortably ahead. Most of ovechkins season where he was considered better are due to sids missed time. Crosby has been the better player every year since 09-10 besides 14-15 and 17-18 and even those years he outscored ovechkin.

 

[Voight]

 

[JackSlater]

People often don't know this but that's actually from the Crosby exhibit at the Nova Scotia Sports Hall of Fame, next to the Crosby family washing machine and Crosby's grade 9 report card.

 

[jigglysquishy]

If Ovechkin keeps this up, it could be the best season either of them had since Crosby won the Hart in 2014.

Could be the best season Ovechkin has had since 2010.

 

[wetcoast]

People often don't know this but that's actually from the Crosby exhibit at the Nova Scotia Sports Hall of Fame, next to the Crosby family washing machine and Crosby's grade 9 report card.

And it's living rent free as well.

 

[alko]

How many times met those two icons on international forum? U18, U20, seniors? I mean Canada vs Russia.
How is it looking head to head?

 

[daver]

As usual, these forums consistently overvalue points (assists) and undervalue goals.

Maybe it's because the whole hockey world (players, the media, coaches, GMs) feels the same way.

Ovechkin has morphed, primarily, into a triggerman as opposed to a driver of offense he was early on. Crosby has morphed into a great 2-way #1C. OV needs to outproduce Crosby (not just outgoal him) to bring the same value.

 

[bobholly39]

So 5 Rocket-worthy seasons (with better margins over #10 in goals than what Crosby won his 2nd Rocket with) vs. only 2 such seasons is "close prime", then here is another example of a similar difference

Stamkos, best % margins over #10 in goals
67-46-38-32-30-10-9
Crosby, best % margins over #10 in goals
46-29-9-6

Player A, best % margins over #10 in goals
73-42-33-33-28-26-25-9-9
Player B, best % margins over #10 in goals
58-31-13-11-10-5

Same thing to you, "peak isn't close, prime is closer"?

No need to be so confrontational about everything. I said peak is clear edge to Stamkos, and prime was closer. I would agree based on these numbers Stamkos still has a decent edge on prime in goal-scoring, but not as much as peak.

Stamkos has also been a big disappointing for playoff goals, whereas Crosby is very strong there. I think that bridges the gap some.

If Ovechkin keeps this up, it could be the best season either of them had since Crosby won the Hart in 2014.

Could be the best season Ovechkin has had since 2010.

I honestly think your conclusions are too conservative. If Ovechkin keeps this up - this could be the best season either player had.....ever? 65 goals and 129 points would be pretty spectacular, even if he somehow got lapped to Ross or hart by the Edmonton duo, despite a higher scoring season.

That being said - he won't keep up that pace. We'll see where he ends up.

Crosby had a really great start in 2016-2017 for example. 16 goals and 25 points in 18 games 73 goals/114 point pace, in a lower scoring year. Didn't keep that up, nor close, but still ended up with a very strong season. Ovechkin could do something similar.

 

[filinski77]

18-19 was clearly crosby and the hart voting and everything else showed it. 11 more points and a far better all around game which led to 34 first place votes for the selke which led to a strong 4th place finish. 19-20 crosby was at a 94 point pace while ov was at a 81 point pace. Again if crosby plays the full season comfortably ahead. Most of ovechkins season where he was considered better are due to sids missed time. Crosby has been the better player every year since 09-10 besides 14-15 and 17-18 and even those years he outscored ovechkin.

Projecting both players to 82 GP in 19/20:
Crosby = 32 goals - 94 points
Ovechkin = 58 goals - 81 points

81% lead in goals vs. 16% lead in points. Even if you credit Crosby with missed time, Ovechkin's season is still better.

Crosby also wasn't "clearly better" in 18/19. The goal lead was so dominant, that it makes up for the smaller overall point lead, and Crosby being better defensively. This is as close to a tie as possible head-to-head. There are also 2 other things to consider:
-> Their Hart finishes were indeed 2nd vs. 7th, but that doesn't reflect who was better at all. Crosby was ahead of multiple players who were clearly better than him that year: McDavid, Marchand, Kane, Draisaitl etc.
-> Crosby's Selke votes are known to be some of the biggest gimmick votes in NHL awards. Crosby is good defensively, but he is not elite. In 18/19 he was not even close to being better defensively than Barkov, Couturier, Danault, Point, Marchand etc. But his name recognition gave him higher placements than all of them.

 

[jigglysquishy]

I honestly think your conclusions are too conservative. If Ovechkin keeps this up - this could be the best season either player had.....ever? 65 goals and 129 points would be pretty spectacular, even if he somehow got lapped to Ross or hart by the Edmonton duo, despite a higher scoring season.

It'll be interesting if scoring itself stays so high. I think we really need to contextualize the spike in scoring starting 2017-18 (teams averaged a full 0.2 goals more per game).

Comparing Ovechkin 07-08 with Ovechkin 20-21, purely by adjusting GPG

82 GP 65 G 47 A 112 P
Teams scored 2.78 GPG as per NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

So far this season, we are averaging 2.95 GPG which would translate the above (in rough terms) to
82 GP 69 G50 A 119 P

So he is indeed playing at a higher pace than his absolute peak.

Considering the last time he finished top 10 in points was 7 years ago (when he tied for 4th). Last time he finished top 3 was his tied for 3rd in 2012-13, a full 9 seasons ago.

I can't think of any other example of a player who had such a high peak, long prime, and then at age 36 peaked again.

 

[wetcoast]

Projecting both players to 82 GP in 19/20:
Crosby = 32 goals - 94 points
Ovechkin = 58 goals - 81 points

81% lead in goals vs. 16% lead in points. Even if you credit Crosby with missed time, Ovechkin's season is still better.

Now do this for every season and you will see why most have Crosby ahead at this point.

Maybe the 12am decider has a graph for this?

He has after all in a couple of the last seasons decided that since Ovi had a better playoff(in his opinion anyways) that we should look at regular season and playoffs together, mind you only for select seasons.

I wonder why that is?

Crosby also wasn't "clearly better" in 18/19. The goal lead was so dominant, that it makes up for the smaller overall point lead, and Crosby being better defensively. This is as close to a tie as possible head-to-head. There are also 2 other things to consider:
-> Their Hart finishes were indeed 2nd vs. 7th, but that doesn't reflect who was better at all. Crosby was ahead of multiple players who were clearly better than him that year: McDavid, Marchand, Kane, Draisaitl etc.
-> Crosby's Selke votes are known to be some of the biggest gimmick votes in NHL awards. Crosby is good defensively, but he is not elite. In 18/19 he was not even close to being better defensively than Barkov, Couturier, Danault, Point, Marchand etc. But his name recognition gave him higher placements than all of them.

Ovechkin also stands out on his team as not being very good at all defensively that season.

Crosby's lead in points and defensive play is more than enough to determine that he had a better season.

Even with the Ovechkin goal lead he only finished 7th in the NHL that year with 37.4 and Crosby was 10th with 36.6 and it was pretty clear that Crosby brought way more value to the Pens that year than Ovi to the capitals never mind on face value Crosby had the better season to begin with.

 

[Tmu84]

I don't think this is true at all and demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of the flow of hockey.

Is a 60 goal, 30 assist player likely better than a 30 goal 60 assist player? Yes, but I don't think the logic of goal>assist "each and every time" would stand up to how offensive production actually works.

Sorry, but I don't really get what you are trying to say here? Just to be clear, I think the first option is without a doubt is the player with better season on your examples and more valuable to his team, because assists and secondary assists are definitely much easier to come by. So I am guessing we are agreeing after all?

 

[jigglysquishy]

Sorry, but I don't really get what you are trying to say here? Just to be clear, I think the first option is without a doubt is the player with better season on your examples and more valuable to his team, because assists and secondary assists are definitely much easier to come by. So I am guessing we are agreeing after all?

Goals vs. primary assists are roughly equal in value. It depends on the play, the player, but I think overall they're a wash.

Certainly in my hockey playing days, coaches valued them the same.