As of 2021 - is Crosby vs Ovechkin's all-time ranking finalized, or can one still surpass the other?

How close are Ovechkin and Crosby in all-time ranking for you?


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Tmu84

- Tmuussoni
Feb 2, 2011
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Maybe it's because the whole hockey world (players, the media, coaches, GMs) feels the same way.

Yeah, this I don't doubt. Seems I am the minority who finds the point appreciation little bit overvalued in the NHL compared to valuing goals.

Ovechkin has morphed, primarily, into a triggerman as opposed to a driver of offense he was early on. Crosby has morphed into a great 2-way #1C. OV needs to outproduce Crosby (not just outgoal him) to bring the same value.

Sorry but says who? Isn't it a statistical fact that is much more difficult to score goals than to get primary or secondary assists, therefore a goal should be regarded higher than assist point? It is not really a fair comparison, is it? I wish someone could come up with a clever formula which would equalize the winger disadvantage when it comes to comparing point finishes..
 

daver

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Sorry but says who? Isn't it a statistical fact that is much more difficult to score goals than to get primary or secondary assists, therefore a goal should be regarded higher than assist point? It is not really a fair comparison, is it? I wish someone could come up with a clever formula which would equalize the winger disadvantage when it comes to comparing point finishes..

Hart and Lindsay voting has consistently put more value on points than goals. It is inarguable that Crosby brings much more than offense to his game and has been deployed as a 2-way player much more than OV has been.
 
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Tmu84

- Tmuussoni
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Hart and Lindsay voting has consistently put more value on points than goals. It is inarguable that Crosby brings much more than offense to his game and has been deployed as a 2-way player much more than OV has been.

Yes and No - seems like Ovi matches Crosby easily when it comes to Harts and Ted Lindsays, so surely the voters saw the value of Ovi's work in his regard respite having less points but more goals? And since when Crosby is known as the 2-way monster as you make it sound like here? I mean he is 65.6% for offensive zone starts this season, so that doesn't exactly scream Patrice Bergeron-Pavel Datsyuk-Jere Lehtinen-Guy Carbonneau level greatness of 2-way-play. Don't get me wrong, he is doing great, just like Ovi is, but no need to turn him into something he is not.
 

wetcoast

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Nov 20, 2018
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Yeah, this I don't doubt. Seems I am the minority who finds the point appreciation little bit overvalued in the NHL compared to valuing goals.



Sorry but says who? Isn't it a statistical fact that is much more difficult to score goals than to get primary or secondary assists, therefore a goal should be regarded higher than assist point? It is not really a fair comparison, is it? I wish someone could come up with a clever formula which would equalize the winger disadvantage when it comes to comparing point finishes..

What winger disadvantage are you talking about here exactly?

Or is it the result of the winger advantage in scoring goals that also might exist.

As for goals meaning more than assists to some whenever I bring up Joe Thornton going to the Sharks were was the outrage in Jonathan Cheechoo and his 56 goals being so disrespected with a 15th place finish in Hart voting that year?
 

Vilica

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Jun 1, 2014
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What winger disadvantage are you talking about here exactly?

Or is it the result of the winger advantage in scoring goals that also might exist.

It's a combination of the tendency for centers to touch the puck in transition more than wingers, and also an artifact of the one player point per scoring play rule. Essentially, goal scorers tend to lose secondary assists they would have otherwise gotten because they scored the goal.

NHL Stats

The season I want to concentrate is the 16-17 season, when Crosby led the league in goals. You can see he had an abnormally low number of secondary assists that year. Now let's look at Crosby's power play numbers for each year.

NHL Stats

You can see Crosby's highest PPG/60 numbers correspond with his lowest PPA2/60. From what I remember the last time I discussed this, with Mike Farkas, I remember watching a Crosby goals seasonal compilation, and that year Crosby had a bunch of PP goals (like 3 or 4) where he passed to a Penguin for an entry, then beat the defense to the far post for the return pass tip-in. Normally he'd have gotten the secondary assist there, but since he scored the goal, no secondary was garnered.

From the little research I've done, it affects no more than 10% of a player's goals per year, and it's basically completely random, but if you look at that scoring per game for a particular player-season, and notice a crash in A2 rate, go and look at a compilation of that player's goals for the season, and most likely they were involved an a couple extra goals where they ought to have been credited with a secondary assist, but scored instead.

[As an aside, Ovechkin over his career has been a 0.20 A2 per game player, only over the past 3 years, he's been a 0.128 per game one. The year, he already has 11 secondary assists after 20 games (incidentally also the number of secondary assists he had in 07-08, his first peak year), and his 0.128 per game rate over the past 3 years has turned into a 0.168 per game over the past 4 years. (source here: NHL Stats) The power of noise in secondary assist generation.]
 
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Rengorlex

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It's a combination of the tendency for centers to touch the puck in transition more than wingers, and also an artifact of the one player point per scoring play rule. Essentially, goal scorers tend to lose secondary assists they would have otherwise gotten because they scored the goal.

NHL Stats

The season I want to concentrate is the 16-17 season, when Crosby led the league in goals. You can see he had an abnormally low number of secondary assists that year. Now let's look at Crosby's power play numbers for each year.

NHL Stats

You can see Crosby's highest PPG/60 numbers correspond with his lowest PPA2/60. From what I remember the last time I discussed this, with Mike Farkas, I remember watching a Crosby goals seasonal compilation, and that year Crosby had a bunch of PP goals (like 3 or 4) where he passed to a Penguin for an entry, then beat the defense to the far post for the return pass tip-in. Normally he'd have gotten the secondary assist there, but since he scored the goal, no secondary was garnered.


This couldn't really manifest itself as more points than were already awarded, as every point for an individual player signals a contribution to a different goal.

Less secondary assists awarded for players goals certainly could mean that player was more responsible on average for creating the goals, but I don't see how it makes it more difficult for wingers to gather points.
 

daver

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It's a combination of the tendency for centers to touch the puck in transition more than wingers, and also an artifact of the one player point per scoring play rule. Essentially, goal scorers tend to lose secondary assists they would have otherwise gotten because they scored the goal.

NHL Stats

The season I want to concentrate is the 16-17 season, when Crosby led the league in goals. You can see he had an abnormally low number of secondary assists that year. Now let's look at Crosby's power play numbers for each year.

NHL Stats

You can see Crosby's highest PPG/60 numbers correspond with his lowest PPA2/60. From what I remember the last time I discussed this, with Mike Farkas, I remember watching a Crosby goals seasonal compilation, and that year Crosby had a bunch of PP goals (like 3 or 4) where he passed to a Penguin for an entry, then beat the defense to the far post for the return pass tip-in. Normally he'd have gotten the secondary assist there, but since he scored the goal, no secondary was garnered.

From the little research I've done, it affects no more than 10% of a player's goals per year, and it's basically completely random, but if you look at that scoring per game for a particular player-season, and notice a crash in A2 rate, go and look at a compilation of that player's goals for the season, and most likely they were involved an a couple extra goals where they ought to have been credited with a secondary assist, but scored instead.

[As an aside, Ovechkin over his career has been a 0.20 A2 per game player, only over the past 3 years, he's been a 0.128 per game one. The year, he already has 11 secondary assists after 20 games (incidentally also the number of secondary assists he had in 07-08, his first peak year), and his 0.128 per game rate over the past 3 years has turned into a 0.168 per game over the past 4 years. (source here: NHL Stats) The power of noise in secondary assist generation.]

Here are Crosby's per game stats for every season:

NHL Stats

I don't see a real correlation with goalscoring and a lower amount of 2As. His lowest 1A to 2A ratios came in average goalscoring seasons (08/09 and 18/19). His three best goalscoring seasons (09/10, 10/11, 16/17) saw average ratios.

Or a high amount of 2As correlated with a high amount of assists in general as those two seasons (08/09 and 18/19) are mixed in with his Top 4 assist seasons (06/07 and 13/14).

Or a correlation between a high amount of PP points and high amount of 2As as his highest PP point season by far (06/07) sees a 1A to 2A ratio that is 5th highest in his career.

Nor a strong correlation between ES scoring and a low amount of 2As. Of his four highest ES point seasons, two seasons are average in 1A to 2A ratio, another is the lowest of his career, another is the highest of his career.

Nor a strong correlation between Malkin's production and Crosby's high 2A totals/ratio. Crosby's 2nd lowest ratio came in 08/09, the only year Crosby played a full season with an Art Ross Malkin. His highest ratio came in 13/14 when Malkin scored 34 points less than Crosby.
 

ContrarianGoaltender

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It's a combination of the tendency for centers to touch the puck in transition more than wingers, and also an artifact of the one player point per scoring play rule. Essentially, goal scorers tend to lose secondary assists they would have otherwise gotten because they scored the goal.

NHL Stats

The season I want to concentrate is the 16-17 season, when Crosby led the league in goals. You can see he had an abnormally low number of secondary assists that year. Now let's look at Crosby's power play numbers for each year.

NHL Stats

You can see Crosby's highest PPG/60 numbers correspond with his lowest PPA2/60. From what I remember the last time I discussed this, with Mike Farkas, I remember watching a Crosby goals seasonal compilation, and that year Crosby had a bunch of PP goals (like 3 or 4) where he passed to a Penguin for an entry, then beat the defense to the far post for the return pass tip-in. Normally he'd have gotten the secondary assist there, but since he scored the goal, no secondary was garnered.

From the little research I've done, it affects no more than 10% of a player's goals per year, and it's basically completely random, but if you look at that scoring per game for a particular player-season, and notice a crash in A2 rate, go and look at a compilation of that player's goals for the season, and most likely they were involved an a couple extra goals where they ought to have been credited with a secondary assist, but scored instead.

[As an aside, Ovechkin over his career has been a 0.20 A2 per game player, only over the past 3 years, he's been a 0.128 per game one. The year, he already has 11 secondary assists after 20 games (incidentally also the number of secondary assists he had in 07-08, his first peak year), and his 0.128 per game rate over the past 3 years has turned into a 0.168 per game over the past 4 years. (source here: NHL Stats) The power of noise in secondary assist generation.]

I don't know enough to contradict your overall theory, although I will say that I am skeptical and would like to see a lot more evidence. There have been plenty of lines where the wingers got the green light for offence while the centers had to do all the dirty defensive work, for example. I don't recall noticing that elite scoring wingers have tended to have IPPs that different from elite centers. And if we're looking at the population as a whole, you absolutely have to take into account the fact that we'd expect centers to score more points than wingers because the average center is better than the average winger, based on the selection bias of hockey development.

However, with respect to your choice of example, I don't think it's a good one at all. There is a real obvious correlation point for Sidney Crosby's drop in secondary assists on the power play, and it has to do with the acquisition of Phil Kessel.

Here's Crosby:

PeriodTeamGPPPGPPA1PPA2PPG/82PPA1/82PPA2/82
2012-15w/o Kessel215263239101215
2016-19w/Kessel31645403112108
2020-22w/o Kessel1039141771114
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
And here's Kessel:

PeriodTeamGPPPGPPA1PPA2PPG/82PPA1/82PPA2/82
2012-15Toronto294323225997
2016-19Pittsburgh32836513891310
2020-22Arizona14614912857
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Crosby moved to the down low position on the power play, while Kessel and Malkin played up top on opposite sides of the umbrella, and the result was that a bunch of Crosby's assists got transferred to Kessel because Crosby was less involved in the puck movement at the top of the zone. Power play scoring is at least in part dependent on your role, I don't think it's any more complicated than that.

I certainly agree that there are roles that are less likely to generate secondary assists based on the plays that a team tends to run on the power play, but that has nothing to do with whether you are a center or a winger and everything to do with your specific job on that unit. At even strength it would vary depending on a team's scheme and the talent of the players involved.
 
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ContrarianGoaltender

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It's a combination of the tendency for centers to touch the puck in transition more than wingers, and also an artifact of the one player point per scoring play rule. Essentially, goal scorers tend to lose secondary assists they would have otherwise gotten because they scored the goal.

Just because I wanted to check this, I ran the IPPs for some recent top wingers and centers (that is, the percentage of on-ice goals they recorded a point on at ES and on the PP). I took the top 10 in total points at both positions since the Dead Puck Era started in 1996-97, and then threw out Patrick Marleau and replaced him with the next winger on the list (Patrik Elias), because Marleau was a big outlier in points per game and was obviously only there because of the length of his career.

I'm using career totals because it's much easier to compile, and I'm doing a quick-and-dirty ESGF estimate using TGF - PGF - SHP. This is slighting guys that killed penalties a bit, but the total on-ice SHGA were very similar between both samples (973 vs 1026) so that wouldn't change anything overall.

Here are the numbers:

PlayerPosESPPPPESGFPPGFES IPPPP IPP
JagrW1296610166092178%66%
OvechkinW840507112481375%62%
IginlaW850428112165376%66%
HossaW71437493555876%67%
SelanneW860588112185777%69%
KaneW74935595147079%76%
AlfredssonW68642892865774%65%
D. SedinW67036784852979%69%
St. LouisW67031791049674%64%
EliasW65933382046380%72%
ThorntonC973546128781876%67%
CrosbyC835481103766581%72%
MalkinC68141884260781%69%
H. SedinC69236991154776%67%
E. StaalC69031797351771%61%
KopitarC63136587648272%76%
GetzlafC65233589448673%69%
BackstromC58239683157770%69%
SpezzaC61236082754674%66%
ZetterbergC60733585449071%68%
TotalW7994430710418641777%67%
TotalC695539229332573575%68%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The wingers in this sample scored 5251 goals compared to just 3527 for the centers. If there was an effect that hurt goal scorers it would certainly have hit them a lot harder, and yet in the aggregate the wingers were actually more involved in their team's offence at ES, and only slightly behind on the PP. If anything it looks to me like two-way centers are the ones who are missing out on offence, by virtue of their defensive responsibilities (see Kopitar, Getzlaf, Zetterberg). Looking at the most offence-focused players the numbers are very similar (e.g. Jagr/Ovi/Selanne/Kane are at 77%/67% combined while Thornton/Crosby/Malkin/H. Sedin are 78%/69%). In summary, I really don't see much reason to believe that wingers are actually systematically losing out on points, at least when we're talking about the best players in the league.
 

Vilica

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The wingers in this sample scored 5251 goals compared to just 3527 for the centers. If there was an effect that hurt goal scorers it would certainly have hit them a lot harder, and yet in the aggregate the wingers were actually more involved in their team's offence at ES, and only slightly behind on the PP. If anything it looks to me like two-way centers are the ones who are missing out on offence, by virtue of their defensive responsibilities (see Kopitar, Getzlaf, Zetterberg). Looking at the most offence-focused players the numbers are very similar (e.g. Jagr/Ovi/Selanne/Kane are at 77%/67% combined while Thornton/Crosby/Malkin/H. Sedin are 78%/69%). In summary, I really don't see much reason to believe that wingers are actually systematically losing out on points, at least when we're talking about the best players in the league.

I admit to being a bit too wide-ranging in my post, because my research is obviously incomplete, and lacking in rigor. My transition point is probably quite a bit more wrong-headed than my 1PtaP is, since I have done no real research on it. I agree that changes in power play structure do make a ton of difference in how power play points are handed out (the Backstrom more secondary assists/Carlson more primary assists than you'd expect for their nominal Washington Power Play roles is basically an artifact of how Washington sets up its power play/how their set plays operate). I do wish I had stressed more than I think it affects wingers who are primarily goal scorers more than wingers that are primarily playmakers.

The point I do wish to emphasize is that I'm concentrating on secondary assists, not actual point production. The difference between Ovechkin (237 A2/1217 GP, 0.194 pg) and Patrick Kane (254 A2/1044 GP, 0.243 pg), when you break it down, is that Ovechkin would have ~296 A2 with Patrick Kane's A2 rate, an extra 59 secondary assists over 17 seasons, about 3-4 per year, or 1 extra secondary assist every 20 games. Let's assume in a hypothetical that the 1PtaP rule affects somewhere between 3% and 5% of a player's goals, and to see the biggest effect let's say that it affects 3% of Kane's goals and 5% of Ovechkin's. 3% of 410 is 12, and 5% of 745 is 37, so that means Ovechkin nets an extra 25 secondary assists in this comparison, or nearly half the gap in their respective A2 rates (Ovechkin's per game would increase from 0.194 to 0.225, while Kane's would go from 0.243 to 0.254). On the other hand, if we say it affects 5% of Kane's goals and 3% of Ovechkin's goals, that's 20 extra assists for Kane and 22 for Ovechkin, and the net effect is basically zero. Given how noisy secondary assists are, and how random I think this is, that seems about right in trying to define how much of a difference this makes.

I do wonder, though it is probably difficult to do given current data, if we could map out IPP% into the three outcomes (goal, A1, A2) and look at how that correlates among players, seasons and ES/PP. I think that would end up being more accurate than trying to use Winger/Center and points to try and discern a difference.
 
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Zuluss

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OV needs to outproduce Crosby (not just outgoal him) to bring the same value.

Let's check that out

Exhibit 1: 2014/15 Crosby has 28 goals and 84 points, Ovechkin has 53 goals and 81 points. Ovechkin beats Crosby in the Hart voting in a landslide: (56.6% voting share vs. 8.8%). Ovechkin did not need to outproduce Crosby.

Exhibit 2: 2014/15 and 2015/16 taken together. Over the two seasons, Ovechkin has 103 goals and 152 points, Crosby has 64 goals and 169 points, 11% edge in points over Ovechkin. However, if we add their Hart votes, Ovechkin is still ahead (70.1% vs. 62.1%). So even when Crosby outscores "triggerman" Ovechkin by 11%, even though Crosby started appearing on Selke ballots, Hart voters would rather have Ovechkin.

Exhibit 3: 2017/18, Ovechkin got older, Crosby allegedly got better on defense. Ovechkin has 49 goals and 87 points, Crosby has 29 goals and 89 points. Ovechkin appears on 19 Hart ballots, Crosby on just 1. Again, Crosby does outproduce Ovechkin, Crosby does get Selke votes - but Hart voters have Ovechkin ahead.
 
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wetcoast

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Let's check that out

Exhibit 1: 2014/15 Crosby has 28 goals and 84 points, Ovechkin has 53 goals and 81 points. Ovechkin beats Crosby in the Hart voting in a landslide: (56.6% voting share vs. 8.8%). Ovechkin did not need to outproduce Crosby.

Exhibit 2: 2014/15 and 2015/16 taken together. Over the two seasons, Ovechkin has 103 goals and 152 points, Crosby has 64 goals and 169 points, 11% edge in points over Ovechkin. However, if we add their Hart votes, Ovechkin is still ahead (70.1% vs. 62.1%). So even when Crosby outscores "triggerman" Ovechkin by 11%, even though Crosby started appearing on Selke ballots, Hart voters would rather have Ovechkin.

Exhibit 3: 2017/18, Ovechkin got older, Crosby allegedly got better on defense. Ovechkin has 49 goals and 87 points, Crosby has 29 goals and 89 points. Ovechkin appears on 19 Hart ballots, Crosby on just 1. Again, Crosby does outproduce Ovechkin, Crosby does get Selke votes - but Hart voters have Ovechkin ahead.


Yet even with all of Crosby's injuries he is ahead on the all time Hart rankings here in post #2.

There is also more information in this thread if anyone has nay doubts about their place in history.

Hart trophy (99.1% complete historical data)
 

CokenoPepsi

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I think time is quickly running out for Crosby to pass Ovechkin.

He needed to finish very strong...I know this season is young but he having a very slow start.

Especially if McDavid stays healthy he probably has a few more Harts in him that will overshadow Sid
 

Vilica

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Jun 1, 2014
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Yet even with all of Crosby's injuries he is ahead on the all time Hart rankings here in post #2.

There is also more information in this thread if anyone has nay doubts about their place in history.

Hart trophy (99.1% complete historical data)

Crosby 1st place Hart votes:
09-10 20
15-16 11
16-17 14
18-19 3
Total 48

Crosby 1st place Hart votes:
12-13 46

He has as many 1st place votes in his other 4 Hart nominee years as he does in the 1 year he was actually competing for the Hart trophy. The 18-19 season is probably the easiest one to use as an example - do you actually think in a hypothetical league where Kucherov's season does not exist, that a Crosby season where he finished tied for 4th in league scoring while his team finished 3rd in its own division wins the Hart over a McDavid year that is his 3rd straight Ross and the most points in a season since 05-06, even if his team missed the playoffs? There's a bit less clarity in 15-16 and 16-17 if the dominant season Crosby finished 2nd to doesn't exist, but the same point remains - Crosby wasn't really competing to win the Hart trophy, he just happened to finish 2nd by having an average (by his standards) season. That speaks to the high level of his normal play, but it doesn't indicate a Hart-worthy year.

Compare that to the 2 years Ovechkin was a Hart nominee - 09-10 40, and 14-15 8 (but highest forward). If the years by Henrik Sedin and Carey Price did not exist, I'd say Ovechkin has a fair shout at both Harts, even if Sid does edge him out for the Art Ross in 09-10 by 1 goal.

[For what it's worth, I think Crosby probably wins the Hart in 16-17, but not in 15-16.]
 
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Zuluss

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Yet even with all of Crosby's injuries he is ahead on the all time Hart rankings here in post #2.

There is also more information in this thread if anyone has nay doubts about their place in history.

Hart trophy (99.1% complete historical data)

Yep, snubbing McDavid (and to a lesser extent Kane) for being on a bad team in 2018/19 helped. There is no way Crosby was 2nd-best player in the league in 2018/19, but he got a lot of votes that season.
Similarly, last year McDavid got all Drai's votes - Crosby was not better than Drai, but ended up ahead in Hart voting.

On the other hand, Ovechkin was nominated for Lindsay in 2005/06, and deservedly so, but did not get as much Hart votes as he should, because Caps did not make the playoffs.
 

wetcoast

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The point of the matter for bringing up the Hart voting is that it sure doesn't hurt Ovechkin in the sense that he has been given more than the benefit of doubt in Hart and all star voting over time and Crosby despite missing all that time still has a better aggregate Hart voting resume than Ovechkin which is usually the case for the better player.
 
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daver

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Yet even with all of Crosby's injuries he is ahead on the all time Hart rankings here in post #2.

There is also more information in this thread if anyone has nay doubts about their place in history.

Hart trophy (99.1% complete historical data)

"Sidney Crosby finished 4th (in 2021). This was his 10th "significant" Hart trophy finish - more than any player going back to WWII except for Howe and Gretzky. He's also earned more (normalized) Hart trophy votes over his career than any player except those two."

Ovechkin is the Gordie Howe of goalscorers, Crosby is a Howe/Beliveau hybrid.
 

Varan

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I think time is quickly running out for Crosby to pass Ovechkin.

He needed to finish very strong...I know this season is young but he having a very slow start.

Especially if McDavid stays healthy he probably has a few more Harts in him that will overshadow Sid
I think this is the biggest obstacle for Crosby. McDavid is 'essentially' the heir to Crosby
 
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wetcoast

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I think this is the biggest obstacle for Crosby. McDavid is 'essentially' the heir to Crosby

That might be true for Crosby eventually as McDavid passes both him and Ovechkin but Crosby is already well ahead of Ovechkin as some people are making 22 games more important than the last 10 years of their entire careers here.
 

CokenoPepsi

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That might be true for Crosby eventually as McDavid passes both him and Ovechkin but Crosby is already well ahead of Ovechkin as some people are making 22 games more important than the last 10 years of their entire careers here.

It is what it is right now a hot start... But if he keeps it up I think that's it...even if he doesn't win the Hart but scores 50-55 goals and is a finalist

There really nothing Crosby can do at this point... If Ovechkin scores 900 career goals that is just too great to argue against even with Crosby being the better player for a stretch.
 

JackSlater

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It is what it is right now a hot start... But if he keeps it up I think that's it...even if he doesn't win the Hart but scores 50-55 goals and is a finalist

There really nothing Crosby can do at this point... If Ovechkin scores 900 career goals that is just too great to argue against even with Crosby being the better player for a stretch.

I do think that Ovechkin will almost inevitably be regarded as better by people in the future who didn't watch them. Most of the cases made for Ovechkin over recent years already read like they were made by people who don't actually watch him play honestly.
 

CokenoPepsi

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Crosby has five points in his last three games...so, that's a 137 point pace. He's better again!

Ovechkin has seven points his last three games including 4 goals =P.

Ovechkin as of now will get most of the attention as their careers wind down and Crosby doesn't seem to be on a cup contender anymore
 

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