Around the NHL: Part XVIII

[kovazub94]

Looking back at the 2017 draft, there’s still very much a feeling that easy decisions more or less went out the window after the 6th pick.

Nearly 2.5 years later and I still see that sharp drop.

In a post-draft interview Gorton was visibly irritated the way that 1-6 worked out and choices his team had to go through.
We’re two and and a half years removed and there’s really still no indication that they had a potentially better option at the time.

 

[Edge]

In a post-draft interview Gorton was visibly irritated the way that 1-6 worked out and choices his team had to go through.
We’re two and and a half years removed and there’s really still no indication that they had a potentially better option at the time.

I tend to view drafts through two prisms.

One is how things were realistically viewed at the time. The other is how things are viewed in hindsight.

The latter points to guys like Thomas and Chytil and others. It's fairly straight-forward and factual, but it is also tends to distort memories.

That's where the latter comes into play --- viewing things as they were seen at the time. Because that's where you find that no one was advocating for Thomas or some of the other names. Instead, they were advocating for Vilardi, or Tippet, or Mittelstadt. And those opinions are not nearly as clear-cut and factual. Instead we find a decent amount of mystery and uncertainty with those names.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Personally, I'm not sure it really changes the bar too much.

While I think the Devils didn't get maximum value for Hall, and probably feared him getting injured and producing nothing in a trade, the value they received is still more than the price for Kreider. So I don't think it's a trickle down scenario where the discounts resonates through the ranks of players who are on the market.

Unless Hall is still out there is an alternative to Kreider, Gorton probably don't really care what Arizona paid. And for other teams, the response is "if you don't want him, don't trade for him."

But with all this comes a warning --- we need to have reasonable expectations for a Kreider deal. We're not getting Newhook. We're not getting Studnicka. We're not getting Necas, or Kaut.

If it's not a first, it's going to be a younger NHL player who is a bit of a reclamation project as the centerpiece.

And no, we will not have an immediate replacement for Kreider. At least in terms of what he brings to the team.

When has this every stopped anyone from getting their expectations WAY out of whack lol. I do agree with you though. My expectations for Kreider are more or less the Hayes deal.

 

[Edge]

When has this every stopped anyone from getting their expectations WAY out of whack lol. I do agree with you though. My expectations for Kreider are more or less the Hayes deal.

If I say it enough times, it can't possibly happen. Right? Right?!?!?!?!

 

[B17 Apricots]

I tend to view drafts through two prisms.

One is how things were realistically viewed at the time. The other is how things are viewed in hindsight.

The latter points to guys like Thomas and Chytil and others. It's fairly straight-forward and factual, but it is also tends to distort memories.

That's where the latter comes into play --- viewing things as they were seen at the time. Because that's where you find that no one was advocating for Thomas or some of the other names. Instead, they were advocating for Vilardi, or Tippet, or Mittelstadt. And those opinions are not nearly as clear-cut and factual. Instead we find a decent amount of mystery and uncertainty with those names.

And I think it's probably safe to say that not having a first round pick in the last four drafts, Halverson looking meh and Gropp a question mark, all played a huge part in their decision. And really looking back at the time it's not a poor choice. A kid playing in the SHL a year before his draft year? That's impressive. His development in NA hasn't been what everyone wanted but they probably had to feel a little desperate to find a guy who's game would translate well

 

[Edge]

And I think it's probably safe to say that not having a first round pick in the last four drafts, Halverson looking meh and Gropp a question mark, all played a huge part in their decision. And really looking back at the time it's not a poor choice. A kid playing in the SHL a year before his draft year? That's impressive. His development in NA hasn't been what everyone wanted but they probably had to feel a little desperate to find a guy who's game would translate well

There's skill there, and that's been demonstrated against his peers in the WJC, in the SHL and in the AHL as a teenager.

The challenge has been getting it to translate at the NHL level. But there's a big part of me that wonders how the perception changes if he wasn't so exposed to this board.

If he plays in the SHL, or the OHL, I'm still not sure some people have this kind of reaction. I mean the people who hated the pick were always going to hate the pick, though it is interesting to see how they no longer use Vilardi or certain other players as a pillar in the argument they construct. But I think one of the big challenges for a lot of people is that they've essentially been staring at him in the NHL for parts of two seasons now, without a heck of a lot of progress to show for it.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Ellis may not even get a phone call about that hit on Buch last night. That's pathetic by DoPS.

 

[B17 Apricots]

There's skill there, and that's been demonstrated against his peers in the WJC, in the SHL and in the AHL as a teenager.

The challenge has been getting it to translate at the NHL level. But there's a big part of me that wonders how the perception changes if he wasn't so exposed to this board.

If he plays in the SHL, or the OHL, I'm still not sure some people have this kind of reaction. I mean the people who hated the pick were always going to hate the pick, though it is interesting to see how they no longer use Vilardi or certain other players as a pillar in the argument they construct. But I think one of the big challenges for a lot of people is that they've essentially been staring at him in the NHL for parts of two seasons now, without a heck of a lot of progress to show for it.

And I think that gets compounded even more when you have Chytil from the same class a bit ahead and now Kakko too so it becomes well hey why's Lias not at that level yet, when really its rare to have teenagers ready to play at this level, it usually takes years for guys to even sniff the big league. It's like a perfect storm for high unmet expectations

 

[LokiDog]

There's skill there, and that's been demonstrated against his peers in the WJC, in the SHL and in the AHL as a teenager.

The challenge has been getting it to translate at the NHL level. But there's a big part of me that wonders how the perception changes if he wasn't so exposed to this board.

If he plays in the SHL, or the OHL, I'm still not sure some people have this kind of reaction. I mean the people who hated the pick were always going to hate the pick, though it is interesting to see how they no longer use Vilardi or certain other players as a pillar in the argument they construct. But I think one of the big challenges for a lot of people is that they've essentially been staring at him in the NHL for parts of two seasons now, without a heck of a lot of progress to show for it.

I think Lias shouldn’t have played in the NHL as early as he did. I think that largely only happened because of how high he was taken. If he was making his NHL debut at 21 right now but had been a 2nd rounder the perception would be very different. I also think because of how early he came in people forget how young he is and how much of a chance their still is for him to turn it around. He has not been given a lot of opportunity when playing up with the big club. His play may not have “earned” it, but there is something to be said for confidence and quality of linemates. A chance with someone other than McKegg and Smith may have been beneficial. Still, he clearly has a lot to work on, but also learned to do some good things at the pro level already even if they aren’t flashy and haven’t translated into production. He knows how to make safe, smart plays with the puck, he takes care of his own end and PKs and he’s shown maturity and professionalism in handling minimal ice time and demotions. If he continues to work hard I still think Lias can turn a corner and be, at least, a good third liner when it’s all said and done. He seems like a very good teammate and locker room guy and if he can be a penalty killing third liner who chips in 40 points one day, I’m fine with that. I hope when the time is RIGHT for him to come back up Quinn doesn’t automatically staple him to our worst players again.

 

[Edge]

And I think that gets compounded even more when you have Chytil from the same class a bit ahead and now Kakko too so it becomes well hey why's Lias not at that level yet, when really its rare to have teenagers ready to play at this level, it usually takes years for guys to even sniff the big league. It's like a perfect storm for high unmet expectations

And as @kovazub94 mentioned, there were at least two guys ahead of Andersson that the Rangers liked and thought would be there --- Pettersson and Glass. So while I have no doubt the Rangers really liked Andersson, he was not their first or even their second choice.

Unfortunately, that's the nature of the draft. Columbus takes JP, the Rangers move McD and take Keller in 2016.

Vancouver takes Mittelstadt, Vegas probably still takes Glass and the Rangers draft Pettersson.

Two factors outside the Rangers control is the split hair difference between having Pettersson and Keller vs. having Andersson, Howden, Hajek and Lundkvist.

But thems the breaks.

 

[Edge]

I think Lias shouldn’t have played in the NHL as early as he did. I think that largely only happened because of how high he was taken. If he was making his NHL debut at 21 right now but had been a 2nd rounder the perception would be very different. I also think because of how early he came in people forget how young he is and how much of a chance their still is for him to turn it around. He has not been given a lot of opportunity when playing up with the big club. His play may not have “earned” it, but there is something to be said for confidence and quality of linemates. A chance with someone other than McKegg and Smith may have been beneficial. Still, he clearly has a lot to work on, but also learned to do some good things at the pro level already even if they aren’t flashy and haven’t translated into production. He knows how to make safe, smart plays with the puck, he takes care of his own end and PKs and he’s shown maturity and professionalism in handling minimal ice time and demotions. If he continues to work hard I still think Lias can turn a corner and be, at least, a good third liner when it’s all said and done. He seems like a very good teammate and locker room guy and if he can be a penalty killing third liner who chips in 40 points one day, I’m fine with that. I hope when the time is RIGHT for him to come back up Quinn doesn’t automatically staple him to our worst players again.

I think there's the perception that if he was a second rounder, everyone would be happy.

Personally, I think if he was just making his debut now, based on what he'd shown in the SHL and WJC, I don't even think there'd be much issue with him being taken 7th.

Perception is a tricky thing --- and I deal with it every day in my profession.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I think there's the perception that if he was a second rounder, everyone would be happy.

Personally, I think if he was just making his debut now, based on what he'd shown in the SHL and WJC, I don't even think there'd be much issue with him being taken 7th.

Perception is a tricky thing --- and I deal with it every day in my profession.

I think the narrative around him would be incredibly different if Chytil was taken at 7 and Andersson at 21, not even a second round pick

Obviously it wasn't realistic at the time though

 

[Edge]

I think the narrative around him would be incredibly different if Chytil was taken at 7 and Andersson at 21, not even a second round pick

Obviously it wasn't realistic at the time though

I guess when push comes to shove, I don't really give much thought to draft position when evaluating players past a certain point.

For me, it's kind of like what high school or college you went to. Right after graduation? Sure, I'm looking at it.

But several years out? I really could care less from a player evaluation standpoint. I'm basing my expectations on what you've shown me.

But I do think there are people for whom draft position is really important and a big factor in how they shape their views.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I guess when push comes to shove, I don't really give much thought to draft position when evaluating players past a certain point.

For me, it's kind of like what high school or college you went to. Right after graduation? Sure, I'm looking at it.

But several years out? I really could care less from a player evaluation standpoint. I'm basing my expectations on what you've shown me.

But I do think there are people for whom draft position is really important and a big factor in how they shape their views.

I would agree, like you said it's a perception thing.

Some people look at where someone was drafted and say "well he was drafted in the top 10, he should be playing in the NHL by now"

But there's a bunch of other factors and context needed.

I also agree with you in regards to Lias specifically, I think he's gone within the next 12 months. If he's not traded during the summer I'll be shocked

 

[I Eat Crow]

Ellis may not even get a phone call about that hit on Buch last night. That's pathetic by DoPS.

That's a f***ing farce.

Someone is going to die on the ice from a subdural bleed after a hit before any real changes are made or these things are taken seriously, and that makes me really sad.

 

[Cassano]

Interesting. Vilardi has been out for 1.5 years and is already outproducing Andersson in the AHL in fewer games played.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Interesting. Vilardi has been out for 1.5 years and is already outproducing Andersson in the AHL in fewer games played.

Is it interesting?

 

[nyr2k2]

Is it interesting?

"Player picked after our Player is out-producing our Player" is the most interesting thing on HF, always.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

 

[effen]

Interesting. Vilardi has been out for 1.5 years and is already outproducing Andersson in the AHL in fewer games played.

OH MY GOD FRESH RAGE REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

 

[nyr2k2]

Good example of why guys like Gropp and Lettieri struggle as they move up the chain--having a big shot is well and good, but if you're not dynamic and can't find the time and space to get that shot off, it's worthless. Stromwall is another guy with a nice shot that just couldn't figure out where to be on the ice, and yet he's a star in whatever Euro league he plays in. Haggerty is one of those guys. Shot and not much else. Like Lettieri it plays in the AHL, but that's it.

 

[Edge]

Interesting. Vilardi has been out for 1.5 years and is already outproducing Andersson in the AHL in fewer games played.

Vilardi outproducing Andersson is nothing new.

However, Vilardi staying on the ice would be a wacky change of pace.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Interesting. Vilardi has been out for 1.5 years and is already outproducing Andersson in the AHL in fewer games played.

yeah Vilardi looks to be getting back on track but can you imagine we took Vilardi and then his career gets sidetracked due to serious injury? Our first high pick in forever looks to be on his way out due to back problems, this place would have gone into absolute despair.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

This might be the most bananas thing I’ve heard a GM say

The team that has two 1st overall picks in the last 3 years, and going for their third, isn’t rebuilding?

What a clown Shero is

 

[Edge]

This might be the most bananas thing I’ve heard a GM say

The team that has two 1st overall picks in the last 3 years, and going for their third, isn’t rebuilding?

What a clown Shero is

Ohhhhhhhhhh, so this is what it looks like when you aren't gifted a generational talent to augment the plethora of former top 3 picks you inherited upon being hired by a hockey club in western Pennsylvania.

Now I get it.

Quick get Dan Bylsma on the phone too. Maybe he can work some of his "magic" for the Debbies.