I think the key is to have the BEST goalie, whatever he’s making. (Snark)
Another way to express what you’re talking about is that guys with Vezina caliber seasons under their belts are having good postseason success. But Vegas and Colorado (maybe even throw St Louis in there) have won it all with ‘regular guys’ in at net.
But say there is merit to the need for a Vezina contender to win the Cup. What’s a GM supposed to do with that information? There are very limited candidates. And we could point out some flame outs who had Vezina caliber years, won big contracts, and then became roster liabilities.
The potential lesson isn't about being able to win while paying a great goalie accordingly
relative to other goalies. It's about being able to win while paying a great goalie
relative to the rest of the league's star skaters.
Vasi, Bob, and Price were/are all top 20 AAVs across all positions league wide in the years they took their teams on runs. They were paid like legit superstars whose AAVs were right on par with the best few players at each other position. Until recently, there was a long sample size suggesting that you simply couldn't win the Cup by paying a goalie like a true star, no matter how good he was.
Prior to 2020/21, the cap era had never seen a team make the Final with a goalie whose AAV was top 20 across all positions. Here is the full list of goalies who appeared in the Final in a season where they were among the top 50 AAVs across all positions:
Huet was riding the bench as the 50th highest AAV in 2010. Hank was the 24th highest AAV in 2014 when the Rangers lost to the Kings. Rinne was the 29th highest AAV when the Preds lost to the Pens. Rask was the 43rd highest AAV when we beat the Bruins. That's it. That's just 4 of the 30 teams who made the Final from 2006-2020 who had a goalie with an AAV in the top 50 of all positions league-wide.
Those teams went 1-3 and the only winner had a goalie who
just squeaked into the top 50. There was a large amount of evidence to support the notion that you couldn't pay a goalie like a star skater if you wanted to truly contend for a Cup.
Then in 2020/21 Vasi won as the 16th highest AAV while Price was the runner up with the 8th highest AAV.
Then in 2021/22 Vasi got back to the Final still as the 16th highest AAV.
Then in 2022/23 Bob made the Final as the 12th highest AAV.
And then this year Bob is back with a 3-1 series lead as the 15th highest AAV.
After 15 years without a top 20 AAV in net during the Final, we saw 5 of the 8 teams with such a guy in net in the next 4 years. The flat cap era was dominated by the goalies paid like superstars.
Obviously you shouldn't pay a non-elite goalie like a superstar. Teams without an elite guy shouldn't overpay those non-elite guys. But the last 4 years have shown us that teams with an elite guy can absolutely still build a winner around an elite goalie who is paid right in line with the tier of superstar players just below the 'repeat MVP candidate' guys at the absolute very top of the AAV list. Up until very recently, the consensus had absolutely become that you just can't build a winner around a goalie paid like that. The last 4 years have demonstrated concrete evidence that you absolutely can and have given the 2 studs nearing UFA the leverage to ask to be paid accordingly.
