Around the NHL 11 - 2023/24

[WolfHouse]

I’m waiting for someone to say face offs are not statistically significant
Oh wait
I’m a believer that they are and can make a difference

To be fair, fancy stats say faceoffs mean more on special teams...

 

[Roughneck1]

Scheifele took 169 faceoff on the PP last season, the 24th most in the NHL.

Of the top 24, Scheifele is the only one with a losing faceoff record on the PP.

Of those top 24, a good number of them are averaging well over 60% on the PP. The average of all those above Scheifele totals 59%. Scheifele is just 48.5%.

For Davis Payne's system to work, the Jets need to start with the puck rather than beginning from the Jets own blue line after yet another iced puck.


View attachment 899676

Also the number two guy lost more then he won. But yeah Sheif has never been good at face offs. He’s at the point in his career where he should be better at it.

 

[Buffdog]

Scheif should be our bumper - we've seen him succeed there

But powerplay inevitably moves to him at halfwall not moving looking for perfect pass

He needs to move - he plays a finesse game that doesn't work anymore

Is that "buy in" or just bad coaching?

If you move him to bumper (where I agree that he's best suited), you'd have to run the PP off the right wall. I think Cole would do awesome there

However, you're then taking both Connor and JoMo out of their best locations since they're both lefties, and the best guy you have down low (Vilardi) is a righty, and that's the wrong side to run it through for him too

Face-off success doesn't just rely on the C, but also on the wingers being aggressive and strong enough to win 50-50 draws. I think the Jets' PP1 has been weak at that. With the Jets Monahan was just over 50% (+2) on PP face-offs, so not really much better than Scheifele. With the Habs Monahan was 55% on PP face-offs.

I think the Jets' forwards need to be much more aggressive to win the scramble draws on the PP.

We're talking buy-in here

 

[KingBogo]

Face-off success doesn't just rely on the C, but also on the wingers being aggressive and strong enough to win 50-50 draws. I think the Jets' PP1 has been weak at that. With the Jets Monahan was just over 50% (+2) on PP face-offs, so not really much better than Scheifele. With the Habs Monahan was 55% on PP face-offs.

I think the Jets' forwards need to be much more aggressive to win the scramble draws on the PP.

Winning any type of contested draw has long been a problem for the Jets. It is also true 5-5 but much more noticeable on the PP.

 

[Buffdog]

I’m waiting for someone to say face offs are not statistically significant
Oh wait
I’m a believer that they are and can make a difference

Faceoffs aren't statistically significant

But A faceoff can change the course of a game

It's like air travel. Statistically, it's extremely safe... but that doesn't matter much when the plane that you're on is plummeting to the earth

 

[hockeyarena]

Faceoffs and ability to gain the zone with more than 10 seconds left of the PP. Gaining the zone shouldn't be an issue for ehlers, Connor, and Morrissey but for whatever reason it's been a struggle.

 

[WolfHouse]

Is that "buy in" or just bad coaching?

If you move him to bumper (where I agree that he's best suited), you'd have to run the PP off the right wall. I think Cole would do awesome there

However, you're then taking both Connor and JoMo out of their best locations since they're both lefties, and the best guy you have down low (Vilardi) is a righty, and that's the wrong side to run it through for him too


We're talking buy-in here

If you flip the whole scheme it works
Perfetti at halfwall
Scheif bumper, vilardi low
Miller or Demelo for the shot, then ehlers or connor as one timer threat to high

With vilardi and scheif I'm not sure we need to keep setting up the one timer to connor

 

[Buffdog]

If you flip the whole scheme it works
Perfetti at halfwall
Scheif bumper, vilardi low
Miller or Demelo for the shot, then ehlers or connor as one timer threat to high

With vilardi and scheif I'm not sure we need to keep setting up the one timer to connor

Connor and ehlers are lefties, so they can't take one timers from where schief is currently.

Vilardi has no passing angles as a righty on the other side of the net

JoMo is your best offensive Dman. You can't not have him out there

In order for a 1-3-1 scheme to work, the players in the bumper (monahan) and on the far side (connor) and the Dman (jomo) need to be the same handedness - open to one timers from the side it's being run off of (left wall) and the guy down low needs to be the opposite

right now we have (with * being where it's run through)

R
NET
R* L L
L

Back in the day with Buff and Laine (when schief was in the bumper and wheeler ran it on the right wall with connor down low) it was

L
NET
R R R*
R

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Also the number two guy lost more then he won. But yeah Sheif has never been good at face offs. He’s at the point in his career where he should be better at it.

You’re looking at the wrong column. Ericsson Ek won 204 and lost 135 on the PP. it’s only Scheifele with a losing PP percentage. If I had included more names you’d have had to get down to the 31st NHL player, Buffalos Dylan Cozens, to find the next centre with less than a 50% success rate.

Faceoffs aren't statistically significant

But A faceoff can change the course of a game

It's like air travel. Statistically, it's extremely safe... but that doesn't matter much when the plane that you're on is plummeting to the earth

At even strength, I’d agree. That’s not the case on PP where immediate possession plays an exponentially larger role.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Connor and ehlers are lefties, so they can't take one timers from where schief is currently.

Vilardi has no passing angles as a righty on the other side of the net

JoMo is your best offensive Dman. You can't not have him out there

In order for a 1-3-1 scheme to work, the players in the bumper (monahan) and on the far side (connor) and the Dman (jomo) need to be the same handedness - open to one timers from the side it's being run off of (left wall) and the guy down low needs to be the opposite

right now we have (with * being where it's run through)

R
NET
R* L L
L

Back in the day with Buff and Laine (when schief was in the bumper and wheeler ran it on the right wall with connor down low) it was

L
NET
R R R*
R

Great post! Now we wait for the eventual response claiming handedness is an insignificant detail.

 

[Jets 31]

I would love Scheifele to win more draws and I'm not a fan of him not in the bumper position but this team is neutered offensively without Scheifele, PP and 5 on 5 .

 

[John Agar]

Great post! Now we wait for the eventual response claiming handedness is an insignificant detail.

I raise both hands...

And surrender...

 

[macmaroon]

It's like air travel. Statistically, it's extremely safe... but that doesn't matter much when the plane that you're on is plummeting to the earth

You must have been on the same WestJet flight as me...

 

[WolfHouse]

Connor and ehlers are lefties, so they can't take one timers from where schief is currently.

Vilardi has no passing angles as a righty on the other side of the net

JoMo is your best offensive Dman. You can't not have him out there

In order for a 1-3-1 scheme to work, the players in the bumper (monahan) and on the far side (connor) and the Dman (jomo) need to be the same handedness - open to one timers from the side it's being run off of (left wall) and the guy down low needs to be the opposite

right now we have (with * being where it's run through)

R
NET
R* L L
L

Back in the day with Buff and Laine (when schief was in the bumper and wheeler ran it on the right wall with connor down low) it was

L
NET
R R R*
R

You're misunderstanding me... I dont think we have the personnel tomrun 1-3-1 so I'd do 2-1-2

Scheif-vilardi right shots
Perfetti left
One of our RHD just for the shot and then one of our lefties finishers up at the blue line to cheat

 

[Buffdog]

You're misunderstanding me... I dont think we have the personnel tomrun 1-3-1 so I'd do 2-1-2

Scheif-vilardi right shots
Perfetti left
One of our RHD just for the shot and then one of our lefties finishers up at the blue line to cheat

Ah, gotcha

 

[Jet]

Scheif should be our bumper - we've seen him succeed there

But powerplay inevitably moves to him at halfwall not moving looking for perfect pass

He needs to move - he plays a finesse game that doesn't work anymore

I doubt Scheifele is just going there. That's coaching.

 

[Thechozen1]

I like the sound of that, beats passing the puck around the perimeter for 2 minutes looking for the perfect 1 timer

Too bad they can’t win faceoffs to save their lives.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Face-off success doesn't just rely on the C, but also on the wingers being aggressive and strong enough to win 50-50 draws. I think the Jets' PP1 has been weak at that. With the Jets Monahan was just over 50% (+2) on PP face-offs, so not really much better than Scheifele. With the Habs Monahan was 55% on PP face-offs.

I think the Jets' forwards need to be much more aggressive to win the scramble draws on the PP.

Agreed, it certainly doesn't rely on just the centre. The wingers need to win their 50/50 battles.

The reason every other NHL team had players who's FO% goes up on the PP is theres an extra man on the ice. These become 60/40 battles, hence why the rest of the league features a centre winning almost 60% of their faceoffs .

But somehow Sheifele is at 48%...

 

[voyageur]

I doubt Scheifele is just going there. That's coaching.

It's funny because the Jets had a successful PP with Laine on the halfwall, and Patty was atrocious at keeping pucks in coming off the boards, just swing his stick at it, watch it go by...Scheifele also can pass off that half wall, so many pucks go through his stick, and honestly, besides Perfetti, which one of our forwards is a better passer?

I think Scheifele and Morrissey practice so much that Scheif is pretty good at putting pucks in Josh's wheelhouse, and realistically if Josh is on the PP it should be a RH shot feeding him those.

I do hope the PP incorporates more movement though...that seems fundamental to breaking down PK defenses.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's funny because the Jets had a successful PP with Laine on the halfwall, and Patty was atrocious at keeping pucks in coming off the boards, just swing his stick at it, watch it go by...Scheifele also can pass off that half wall, so many pucks go through his stick, and honestly, besides Perfetti, which one of our forwards is a better passer?

I think Scheifele and Morrissey practice so much that Scheif is pretty good at putting pucks in Josh's wheelhouse, and realistically if Josh is on the PP it should be a RH shot feeding him those.

I do hope the PP incorporates more movement though...that seems fundamental to breaking down PK defenses.

If you aren't moving you actually give up the 'advantage' of the man advantage. It is 5 on the outside v 4 on the inside. The 4 on the inside can cover all of the 5 on the outside.

 

[WolfHouse]

It's funny because the Jets had a successful PP with Laine on the halfwall, and Patty was atrocious at keeping pucks in coming off the boards, just swing his stick at it, watch it go by...Scheifele also can pass off that half wall, so many pucks go through his stick, and honestly, besides Perfetti, which one of our forwards is a better passer?

I think Scheifele and Morrissey practice so much that Scheif is pretty good at putting pucks in Josh's wheelhouse, and realistically if Josh is on the PP it should be a RH shot feeding him those.

I do hope the PP incorporates more movement though...that seems fundamental to breaking down PK defenses.

We were running the power play off the opposite wing at that time though... not Laine.

The PP SHOULD work with Scheif and Vilardi feeding Ehlers/Perfetti, Connor, Jomo - so for sure its 'coaching' but coaching is not asking Scheif to stand still

Would be interesting to see them try a behind the net approach run through Vilardi... doubt it happens

Maybe Miller is the RHD that allows us to flip - then Perfetti runs the powerplay and we move Connor up high?

 

[voyageur]

We were running the power play off the opposite wing at that time though... not Laine.

The PP SHOULD work with Scheif and Vilardi feeding Ehlers/Perfetti, Connor, Jomo - so for sure its 'coaching' but coaching is not asking Scheif to stand still

Would be interesting to see them try a behind the net approach run through Vilardi... doubt it happens

Maybe Miller is the RHD that allows us to flip - then Perfetti runs the powerplay and we move Connor up high?

I really can't see Josh getting kicked off PP1 now. It would be nice if KC had a Kucherov type finish it opens up more options. I like these Van Riemsdyk type players along the goal line, that's a different dynamic that can work if you crash the net because a rebound is inevitable on those type of shots. also can draw the defenses in for bumper/back door plays.

I say if the guns aren't working, have 2 PPs that can compete...The idea of Ville, Lambert, Ehlers running the top of PP2, to me that gives some competition. Maybe Miller gets in there for the shot. Nino plays the front of the net well.

I agree about the standing still part 100%...You watch guys like Mc David Mackinnon skate around and all the different options come from that constant movement/rotation. Maybe that's where Ehlers could be effective...It's still uncertain who is going to be on PP1 to start the season, Ehlers could have a monster season if he gets that role over Perfetti. Given how little he produced on the PP last season.

 

[WolfHouse]

I really can't see Josh getting kicked off PP1 now. It would be nice if KC had a Kucherov type finish it opens up more options. I like these Van Riemsdyk type players along the goal line, that's a different dynamic that can work if you crash the net because a rebound is inevitable on those type of shots. also can draw the defenses in for bumper/back door plays.

I say if the guns aren't working, have 2 PPs that can compete...The idea of Ville, Lambert, Ehlers running the top of PP2, to me that gives some competition. Maybe Miller gets in there for the shot. Nino plays the front of the net well.

I agree about the standing still part 100%...You watch guys like Mc David Mackinnon skate around and all the different options come from that constant movement/rotation.

The roster doesn't make 1-3-1 easy...

Vilardi
Scheif-Barron-Connor
Jomo

Perfetti
Lambert-Nino-Ehlers
Miller/Demelo

Starting to realize that Toffoli was likely signed because he was a right shot and they thought he'd be the final piece on PP1

 

[Buffdog]

The roster doesn't make 1-3-1 easy...

Vilardi
Scheif-Barron-Connor
Jomo

Perfetti
Lambert-Nino-Ehlers
Miller/Demelo

Starting to realize that Toffoli was likely signed because he was a right shot and they thought he'd be the final piece on PP1

I'd like to see Cole in the bumper on PP1 as a left handed shot

 

[WolfHouse]

I'd like to see Cole in the bumper on PP1 as a left handed shot

Is he big enough?