Around the NHL 11 - 2023/24

[bustamente]

Took a little time but the Leafs finally figured out how to play the game, they are going to have to LTIR half of the team if the sign Mathews, Marner, and Nylander and if they trade for Karlsson.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Took a little time but the Leafs finally figured out how to play the game, they are going to have to LTIR half of the team if the sign Mathews, Marner, and Nylander and if they trade for Karlsson.

Nylander won’t be a Leaf

 

[raideralex99]

 

[Eyeseeing]

View attachment 731773

If you ain’t cheatin’
You’re not tryin’

 

[Jets 31]

Nylander won’t be a Leaf

Not when he is apparently wanting 10 million a season.

 

[ps241]

Not when he is apparently wanting 10 million a season.

He’s not traded yet so we shall see how it all progresses.

I think he is probably pissed he was first last time and ended up with an $6.9 vs Marner $10.9

 

[JetsFan815]

I don't mind the Leafs using LTIR for Murray... he is probably injured enough to justify putting him there. Additionally he is also likely sacrificing a decent amount of career earning potential by going on LTIR- He is only 29, he could have forced a buyout and gotten a league minimum contract as a backup that would only put him ~1.8 million behind what he would get by being on LTIR but make it much more likely he gets another contract next season and thus extending his NHL career by a few years.

As it stands now this is possibly the end of his NHL career, he won't get a 1-way contract next season and will need to prove himself in the minors again with no guarantee and him rapidly aging. The fact that he went on the LTIR tells me that he doesn't think he is at full health capable of putting decent numbers so he is willing to risk potentially forfeiting the length of his career.

And he won't be playing in the regular season or the playoffs. The LTIR abuse I want to be stopped is when guys with nothing lose are clearly timing their "injuries" around February to just make a miraculous recovery in time for Round 1 allowing teams to trade for help and the deadline and be over the cap in the playoffs.

 

[Eyeseeing]

He’s not traded yet so we shall see how it all progresses.

I think he is probably pissed he was first last time and ended up with an $6.9 vs Marner $10.9

Can’t blame him.
He’s the player I’d pick between him and Marner.
Funny thing about Toronto is they have the opposite problem of Winnipeg which is the perception of desirability and yet Toronto overpays for the players when in reality they probably could play hardball with potentially more stars seeking them out if current players aren’t willing to re up.
Winnipeg does play hardball in negotiations out of necessity and likely at higher risk of alienating the players they seek to lock up.
Toronto really messed up the way they locked up too many high end players at the expense of their overall mix and now they have a higher end player who understandably wants what others got.

 

[ps241]

Can’t blame him.
He’s the player I’d pick between him and Marner.
Funny thing about Toronto is they have the opposite problem of Winnipeg which is the perception of desirability and yet Toronto overpays for the players when in reality they probably could play hardball with potentially more stars seeking them out if current players aren’t willing to re up.
Winnipeg does play hardball in negotiations out of necessity and likely at higher risk of alienating the players they seek to lock up.
Toronto really messed up the way they locked up too many high end players at the expense of their overall mix and now they have a higher end player who understandably wants what others got.

Yea it was really a series of decisions from a rookie GM that were tough. They pay a premium for Tavares as a UFA and that sets their internal market. Then Matthews bends him over, Marner has a great season and holds Dubas’s feet to the fire and Kyle caves again. Then the cap is flat and they are stuck with a very top heavy payroll.

Now its William’s turn and he is expecting a big correction.

 

[10Ducky10]

Breaking down NHL’s 2022-23 top value performers, All-Bargain Team

Looking back at 2022-23, which NHL players provided the biggest bang for the buck for their teams? Sonny Sachdeva narrows it down.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[raideralex99]

Breaking down NHL’s 2022-23 top value performers, All-Bargain Team

Looking back at 2022-23, which NHL players provided the biggest bang for the buck for their teams? Sonny Sachdeva narrows it down.

www.sportsnet.ca

Stats for everything lol.
Actually Perfetti should be on that list he only played 51 games and got 30 points thats over $18,000 per point that would put him at #6 but seriously the worst contracts is what really matters.

 

[ERYX]

Took a little time but the Leafs finally figured out how to play the game, they are going to have to LTIR half of the team if the sign Mathews, Marner, and Nylander and if they trade for Karlsson.

I think they've known how to play the game for a while, given the whole "Robidas Island" and Joffrey Lupul thing. I believe they were one of the pioneers of burying bad contracts in LTIR, they just got away from it for a while under Dubas and are now getting back into the swing of things.

 

[DRW204]

to bad all those analytics guys' opinions or projections get shit on & labelled as Jets haters on here

from JFresh, earlier in July
1st in Central
2nd in the league

 

[tbcwpg]

to bad all those analytics guys' opinions or projections get shit on & labelled as Jets haters on here

from JFresh, earlier in July
1st in Central
2nd in the league
View attachment 732989

He did say when he posted that that the model likes some of the Jets acquisitions but he's not sure about how accurate it is.

Also Dom's offseason improvement article had the Jets at 28th (as in biggest change from last year's results), losing about 10 goals from last season.

 

[surixon]

to bad all those analytics guys' opinions or projections get shit on & labelled as Jets haters on here

from JFresh, earlier in July
1st in Central
2nd in the league
View attachment 732989

I like out team this year. If it gels I think we have the pieces to finish top 2 to 3 in the division.

I also like our depth for the playoffs if we are relatively healthy.

 

[ERYX]

He did say when he posted that that the model likes some of the Jets acquisitions but he's not sure about how accurate it is.

Also Dom's offseason improvement article had the Jets at 28th (as in biggest change from last year's results), losing about 10 goals from last season.

So he calls his own modelling inaccurate when it suggests the Jets might be good? So analytics and his models are only good when they match the narrative he wants to advance, is that what I'm understanding from this?

WRT Dom ... is he saying Jets are worst chance or least change by ranking them 28/32? Or is it reverse where #1 would be almost no change at all and #32 the most turnover season vs season?

 

[tbcwpg]

So he calls his own modelling inaccurate when it suggests the Jets might be good? So analytics and his models are only good when they match the narrative he wants to advance, is that what I'm understanding from this?

WRT Dom ... is he saying Jets are worst chance or least change by ranking them 28/32? Or is it reverse where #1 would be almost no change at all and #32 the most turnover season vs season?

Jfresh is saying that his model really likes Hellebuyck and the Vilardi/Iafallo acquisitions. I'm not sure that I trust that impact on a new team with new defensive systems/linemates, but we'll see. I do think they'll be pretty good this year.

As for Dom, his model is essentially a player's impact on offence compared to a set base, as well as an impact on defence. So a player might directly impact, over an 82 game season, 2 goals less than the base (-2) but prevent 3 goals more than average (+3), so his Net Rating is +1, which is ultimately positive. The unit of comparison he uses is goals because it's easy to understand.

So the rankings he did was to take the Net Rating of the team's additions and subtractions, and then rank them. So Dallas was 1st, as their additions and subtractions over the summer added a 15.7 goal difference. The Jets were 28th because their additions and subtractions subtracted a 10.0 goal difference. The Net impact of Dubois' and Wheeler's offence is not countered by the net impact of Vilardi, Iafallo and Kupari's addition.

It's not a standings prediction, but a prediction of how much a team has improved or became worse based on their summer moves.

 

[ERYX]

So the rankings he did was to take the Net Rating of the team's additions and subtractions, and then rank them. So Dallas was 1st, as their additions and subtractions over the summer added a 15.7 goal difference. The Jets were 28th because their additions and subtractions subtracted a 10.0 goal difference. The Net impact of Dubois' and Wheeler's offence is not countered by the net impact of Vilardi, Iafallo and Kupari's addition.

Which is interesting considering how widely despised both players were around here.

The loss of Wheeler I think will hurt the most since we not only lost him for absolutely nothing, we paid him to go away. I think he was always unjustly maligned, his on-ice performance was still good. But I think his departure had to happen because of off-ice stuff.

 

[DRW204]

He did say when he posted that that the model likes some of the Jets acquisitions but he's not sure about how accurate it is.

Also Dom's offseason improvement article had the Jets at 28th (as in biggest change from last year's results), losing about 10 goals from last season.

i didn't have a chance to see dom's. i think his would look a bit different if nino was considered a new addition. Dom has also been closer to Jets standings than what most people probably want to admit.

So he calls his own modelling inaccurate when it suggests the Jets might be good? So analytics and his models are only good when they match the narrative he wants to advance, is that what I'm understanding from this?

WRT Dom ... is he saying Jets are worst chance or least change by ranking them 28/32? Or is it reverse where #1 would be almost no change at all and #32 the most turnover season vs season?

not at all.

 

[Jets 31]

Jfresh is saying that his model really likes Hellebuyck and the Vilardi/Iafallo acquisitions. I'm not sure that I trust that impact on a new team with new defensive systems/linemates, but we'll see. I do think they'll be pretty good this year.

As for Dom, his model is essentially a player's impact on offence compared to a set base, as well as an impact on defence. So a player might directly impact, over an 82 game season, 2 goals less than the base (-2) but prevent 3 goals more than average (+3), so his Net Rating is +1, which is ultimately positive. The unit of comparison he uses is goals because it's easy to understand.

So the rankings he did was to take the Net Rating of the team's additions and subtractions, and then rank them. So Dallas was 1st, as their additions and subtractions over the summer added a 15.7 goal difference. The Jets were 28th because their additions and subtractions subtracted a 10.0 goal difference. The Net impact of Dubois' and Wheeler's offence is not countered by the net impact of Vilardi, Iafallo and Kupari's addition.

It's not a standings prediction, but a prediction of how much a team has improved or became worse based on their summer moves.

Going by his standings he must like what the Jets have done.

 

[tbcwpg]

i didn't have a chance to see dom's. i think his would look a bit different if nino was considered a new addition.

Yeah, one drawback of the model is that players on the roster at year end are not considered new additions. I can see the logic though, since they did play here for a short time so you can kind of measure their impact. I think he'd say the team would be better with Nino and 80/26 than they are with Nino and the LA trio.

Going by his standings he must like what the Jets have done.

Judging from his Tweets about the Jets here and in the past, he doesn't trust the model 100% as it relates to Winnipeg, because they never seem to live up to what it says they should be.

 

[Jets 31]

Which is interesting considering how widely despised both players were around here.

The loss of Wheeler I think will hurt the most since we not only lost him for absolutely nothing, we paid him to go away. I think he was always unjustly maligned, his on-ice performance was still good. But I think his departure had to happen because of off-ice stuff.

Wheeler had to go , he still worked hard but it was time the team moved in a new direction and after listening to him give his coach shit about saying what we all saw in the playoffs it was definitely time.

 

[DRW204]

Yeah, one drawback of the model is that players on the roster at year end are not considered new additions. I can see the logic though, since they did play here for a short time so you can kind of measure their impact. I think he'd say the team would be better with Nino and 80/26 than they are with Nino and the LA trio.



Judging from his Tweets about the Jets here and in the past, he doesn't trust the model 100% as it relates to Winnipeg, because they never seem to live up to what it says they should be.

the one thing i do agree though is defensive impact esp. w/ fwds i think may not fully transferable from team-to-team or system-to-system. i think offense is a bit easier to predict but individual defense is not perfectly quantified in stats yet. so i do not disagree with a bit of the hesitancy w/ iafallo or vilardi on the defensive side.

 

[Buffdog]

So he calls his own modelling inaccurate when it suggests the Jets might be good? So analytics and his models are only good when they match the narrative he wants to advance, is that what I'm understanding from this?

WRT Dom ... is he saying Jets are worst chance or least change by ranking them 28/32? Or is it reverse where #1 would be almost no change at all and #32 the most turnover season vs season?

I find it refreshing when someone acknowledges the possible limitations of their modeling. We could have used more of that during covid.

The smartest people in the room are the most likely to say "I don't know", "I'm not sure" and "I was wrong". It's the intellectually insecure that get bogged down in confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance

 

[MardyBum]

I think overall, I'd rather have Vilardi, Iafallo, Nino, Namestnikov, and Kupari than PLD, Wheeler, Stenlund, Saku, and. . Kuhlman? What other guys were they trotting out there last year? Toninato?

This Jets team is at worst equal offensively(I'd say better but whatever) and much better defensively than last years opening night roster.