So I finally found some stats that would give me some substance on a certain bugbear I have with modern coaches: the 'coaches challenge' for a goal.
Side note: one of the most significant lessons I remember from one of my first poker coaches: he told me that for two weeks, I should make notes of every time I had a "close decision" in my head. Like a ton of plays in poker are obvious, some are close but still clear, and relatively few are literally so close that you'd resort to a random event generator (yes, this is why top level poker pros still wear wrist-watches; so they can generate random events by looking at the second readouts).
So he says, "every close call, make a note. If you win, note what you won; if you lose, note what you lost making that 'close call'"
I come back two weeks later and I say "okay here's how I did" and before I showed him, he said "if your results are anything other than close to zero, you're doing something VERY wrong".
And it sunk in, right? If you think it's a "close call" but you have a massive edge when you do it, it really isn't a close call, huh?
Anyways: here are this year's current stats on the "close call" of challenging a goal.
151 success, 50 failures.
75% chance of taking a goal off the board, 25% chance of a 20% chance of being scored on.
Suffice it to say, this is NOT a close call. Coaches are being INSANELY too conservative.
Of course, our own coach Jurassic Bones is +5 -2 this year; if he was +2 -5 he'd be almost close to optimal.
And yes, a hundred times yes, I understand that there is a lot of hockey that can't be boiled down to percentages.
This is one, and the most obvious one. Completely inexcusable for the league as a whole to be this far off the mark.