Around the NHL 10 - 2022/23

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KingBogo

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Nov 29, 2011
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There would be no board… just one old guy in here yelling at the clouds :D
After I posted that I actually thought about it more. Let’s say we make the playoffs this season but then go in a deep dive rebuild. If we happen to follow the Sabres bumpy road even though in the last 10 years they’ve 17 first round picks. 10 top 10 picks 2 - 2nd OA picks and 2 - 1st OA picks. It would be 2035 and we still wouldn’t have made the playoffs again.
 

WolfHouse

Registered User
Oct 4, 2020
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And how do you think this board reacts to missing the playoffs 12 years in a row?
Not one of your better posts - you know ownership is a major problem

A red herring to deflect from a hard working team is pretty meh...

After I posted that I actually thought about it more. Let’s say we make the playoffs this season but then go in a deep dive rebuild. If we happen to follow the Sabres bumpy road even though in the last 10 years they’ve 17 first round picks. 10 top 10 picks 2 - 2nd OA picks and 2 - 1st OA picks. It would be 2035 and we still wouldn’t have made the playoffs again.
And what if we get swept... again youre logic makes me worried about this team if youre twisting this much
 
Jun 15, 2013
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Andrei Svechnikov won't be playing today and is out indefinitely. TSN reporting a knee injury during a non contact play.


Sportnet goes further with Freidman suggesting it's a torn ACL & his season possibly over. (footage of injury included)


Looks to be the same knee from a 2020 slewfoot from Chara where he missed 27 games.

 
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AlphaLackey

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Mar 21, 2013
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As a person who has never gambled on card games or in Casino’s but does take allot of risk in my core business ventures I very much enjoy your breakdowns of these risk probability scenario’s.

I find them fascinating.

Thanks, that's kind of you to say. Like I said in my post, I know that it's a gross simplification to say that sports themselves are nothing but numbers. When the Simpsons mocked Monty Burns swapping out Daryl Strawberry for Homer Simpson "to play the percentages", I knew what kind of sports fans were being roasted back then; you younger folk might not remember that the early years of the Simpsons were contemporary with Bill James 'sabermetrics' works that started in the late 70s

But I mean, some edges are so flagrantly obviously correct, math-wise, that you just can't deny it. And the time will come when the second coming of Roger Nielson will attack these issues and iron this shit out.

X 2.

Or should I say, "I also find these breakdowns congenial, most of the time and within generally consistent parameters , more often than not, where "not" is a broadly negative response and "often" is more than 1 time out of 1 times."

I hope you don't mind, but once @kanadalainen and I join forces to make a sports stats bureau, I'm going to use that as our mutual endorsement :)
 

ps241

The Ballad of Ville Bobby
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Thanks, that's kind of you to say. Like I said in my post, I know that it's a gross simplification to say that sports themselves are nothing but numbers. When the Simpsons mocked Monty Burns swapping out Daryl Strawberry for Homer Simpson "to play the percentages", I knew what kind of sports fans were being roasted back then; you younger folk might not remember that the early years of the Simpsons were contemporary with Bill James 'sabermetrics' works that started in the late 70s

But I mean, some edges are so flagrantly obviously correct, math-wise, that you just can't deny it. And the time will come when the second coming of Roger Nielson will attack these issues and iron this shit out.



I hope you don't mind, but once @kanadalainen and I join forces to make a sports stats bureau, I'm going to use that as our mutual endorsement :)

One area of probabilites that I find interesting (philosophically) is that I heard that Tom Duncan has faith in his chief analytics asset and one of the downstream effects is he doesn’t believe in the math on pure rentals at the TD. I would imagine that when you take into account the probability of winning a cup then step on it further with how much a rental actually impacts it then the math is probably ugly. Not saying draft picks are a slam dunk but I do find the TD rental phenomena interesting. Low marginal cost of the asset from a cap hit perspective but the high cost in acquisition price since you are renting the asset for a limited time.
 

AlphaLackey

Registered User
Mar 21, 2013
17,202
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Winnipeg, MB
One area of probabilites that I find interesting (philosophically) is that I heard that Tom Duncan has faith in his chief analytics asset and one of the downstream effects is he doesn’t believe in the math on pure rentals at the TD. I would imagine that when you take into account the probability of winning a cup then step on it further with how much a rental actually impacts it then the math is probably ugly. Not saying draft picks are a slam dunk but I do find the TD rental phenomena interesting. Low marginal cost of the asset from a cap hit perspective but the high cost in acquisition price since you are renting the asset for a limited time.

The way I always understood it, and the way I played it in every fantasy replay league I was in since the early 90s: Free agents are worth the most, and draft picks the least, at the trade deadline; the day before/of the draft, it's the other way around. Pure rentals are only worth it if you're so good that the math is "cup = 100%, anything else = 0%". Which, of course, many teams are at, even if all but 1 of them are justified :P
 

tbcwpg

Moderator
Jan 25, 2011
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That really sucks for Andrei Svechnikov, having a torn ACL this late in the season. Boston's ride to the ECF just got a bit easier.

Stanley Cup Final, you mean. Boston and Carolina wouldn't play each other until the ECF.
 

Guffman

Registered User
Apr 7, 2016
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I like where the Jets are sitting at right now. If we're looking at the best path to the WCF, I think it's via a WC and going through the Pacific.

The team I really want to avoid is the Avs. I'd rather have the Stars and North Stars beat them up/eliminate them before facing the Avs.
 

WolfHouse

Registered User
Oct 4, 2020
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I like where the Jets are sitting at right now. If we're looking at the best path to the WCF, I think it's via a WC and going through the Pacific.

The team I really want to avoid is the Avs. I'd rather have the Stars and North Stars beat them up/eliminate them before facing the Avs.
Dallas is prob the only team that we can beat in a series...
 

GeorgeJETson

Hnidy probably has us on his no trade list
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Sep 30, 2016
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Dallas is prob the only team that we can beat in a series...

penny-unsure.gif


:laugh:
 

WolfHouse

Registered User
Oct 4, 2020
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Minnesota, Seattle, LA, maybe Edmonton again
Minnie has destroyed us every game this year... seattle is playing bowness system except the players are listening... Anze Kopitar still took over the last jets game...

If players buy in again, ill have more faith but wins against back to back teams doesnt have me planning the parade
 

gojetsgo

Registered User
Nov 1, 2015
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Minnie has destroyed us every game this year... seattle is playing bowness system except the players are listening... Anze Kopitar still took over the last jets game...

If players buy in again, ill have more faith but wins against back to back teams doesnt have me planning the parade
destroyed us? 1st game they did, second game we played with half our lineup out and everyone around here was happy with the way we played vs them and last game we dominated them but lost...
 

WolfHouse

Registered User
Oct 4, 2020
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destroyed us? 1st game they did, second game we played with half our lineup out and everyone around here was happy with the way we played vs them and last game we dominated them but lost...
We havent held a lead against the wild all season and have no answer for their trap... but hey sure...
 

bustamente

Fraud Supporter
Jun 29, 2015
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Bally Sports which has a number of NHL teams in its stable parent company is filing Chapter 11 in the States, for the time being everything will stay as is for both NHL and MLB broadcasts while they restructure.
 
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WolfgangPuck

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May 12, 2012
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Meanwhile in the Bedard Bowl the tank is gaining strength CBJ not using starter Elvis goalie Leave of absent to visit sick grandmother. They are starting their AHL goalie with Hutch as backup. CBJ up 3-1. Sharks responds by taking only 6 shots on goal by midway 2nd period CBJ has 27 shots
Maybe Jets should have dressed like CBJ uniform last match so Sharks could lose to us on purpose
 

WolfgangPuck

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May 12, 2012
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Canucks winning over Dallas
Typically March surge for Vancouver to reduce their chances on the Bedard sweepstakes
 
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