Around the NHL — Episode XLXVI

[Cosmix]

this is an issue the league needs to analyze and address.

If you get on Statmuse, you will see the bottom 10 teams this year, are also the same bottom 10-15 teams with a cumulatively bad record over a 5 to 10 year period.

The league is stratified. Once good, a team remains good. Once bad, it remains bad.

32 teams has meant, it is difficult to draft out of trouble (quickly). A cap has meant that you cannot spend your way out. Trade deadline, FA day in July, seems to ensure that the rich get richer and the poor remain poor.

What has happened this year is the same for years past. If you look at the data, you can go back 10-15 years and it is similar.

The league needs to find a way to be Robin Hood.. Somehow take from the rich and give to the poor (Talent wise, not money).

Insane that a mere 10% of total games played, paint the picture.

It cannot be easy to be in sales and marketing for the 10-12 teams that are out by Oct 30 or 31st. Accounting for road and home games, these teams may have 38-39 dates to fill.

Solutions are needed.. A major one may have to be expanded playoffs.

Ohh well. Imagine the chaos next Oct 31.

We know why Ottawa is near the bottom of the league; the 3 main reasons are:
1. Cheap Owner
2. Dumb GM
3. Cheap coach

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

San Jose did well there. 2 1sts and 2 3rds.

2 3rds go to Vegas

 

[Micklebot]

The Dumba trade is hilarious.

Why?

 

[bicboi64]

Sharks have no retention spots for next year, Grier may have put himself in a hard position next year. The Sharks are at least 2 more drafts away from building up again. Their off season will be interesting. Loads of guys will walk in UFA, and not sure how much they'll sign guys with the intention of trading them at the deadline.

 

[Xspyrit]

This is quickly becoming a league that feels like there's no real path to success for the Senators even available. Maybe it's always been that way and I just had childlike wonder, but woof are some of those US teams just drowning in riches in comparison.

Yeah but also you're saying this after going through 7 years with Pierre Dorion and starting 5 seasons with DJ Smith.

Look at 2016-17, we didn't even go through a real rebuild to get there and we came super close to making these finals and I think the Sens might have won if we did. We need to build through the draft, a few smart trades (like for Craig Anderson or Marc Methot) or signings (MacArthur, Giroux types) and hope to stay healthy enough to go all the way. It's going to be hard to build a juggernaut like Tampa, Colorado or Vegas but we can do like the Blues or the Canes IMO and be a solid team that hopes that stars align that 1 year.

 

[DrEasy]

This is quickly becoming a league that feels like there's no real path to success for the Senators even available. Maybe it's always been that way and I just had childlike wonder, but woof are some of those US teams just drowning in riches in comparison.

I think the way to do it is to invest in infrastructure: scouting, analytics, training facilities, coaching, etc. This stuff is actually cheap compared to player salary. Kubalik's yearly salary alone would get you an army of scouts, not to mention plenty for travel to send them all over the place, maybe to places others don't go.

And you need to be patient. Don't accelerate the rebuild by trading away your assets. Hoard the assets, occasionally be willing to trade a free-agent-to-be even if you're going to make the playoffs, just to keep the pipeline going.

Basically do the opposite of what the Sens have been doing under Melnyk and Dorion.

We see it in baseball with Tampa. They compete with a low budget, low attendance, but they can outperform very rich teams. And baseball doesn't even really have much of a salary cap! Tampa routinely trades a star player who is a year away from free agency and they hit on the prospects they get back; in fact sometimes the prospect is better than the star player right away.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Yeah but also you're saying this after going through 7 years with Pierre Dorion and starting 5 seasons with DJ Smith.

Look at 2016-17, we didn't even go through a real rebuild to get there and we came super close to making these finals and I think the Sens might have won if we did. We need to build through the draft, a few smart trades (like for Craig Anderson or Marc Methot) or signings (MacArthur, Giroux types) and hope to stay healthy enough to go all the way. It's going to be hard to build a juggernaut like Tampa, Colorado or Vegas but we can do like the Blues or the Canes IMO and be a solid team that hopes that stars align that 1 year.

I think the way to do it is to invest in infrastructure: scouting, analytics, training facilities, coaching, etc. This stuff is actually cheap compared to player salary. Kubalik's yearly salary alone would get you an army of scouts, not to mention plenty for travel to send them all over the place, maybe to places others don't go.

And you need to be patient. Don't accelerate the rebuild by trading away your assets. Hoard the assets, occasionally be willing to trade a free-agent-to-be even if you're going to make the playoffs, just to keep the pipeline going.

Basically do the opposite of what the Sens have been doing under Melnyk and Dorion.

We see it in baseball with Tampa. They compete with a low budget, low attendance, but they can outperform very rich teams. And baseball doesn't even really have much of a salary cap! Tampa routinely trades a star player who is a year away from free agency and they hit on the prospects they get back; in fact sometimes the prospect is better than the star player right away.

You guys make some good points. At least now we have a real owner, and hopefully the process moves towards more sustainability. Trade deadlines are always a tough reminder for Sens fans that we're not one of the more competitive franchises in general, so I'm just feeling down today watching all these other teams have fun while we didn't even have anything worthy of plucking from for contenders. This team is in rough shape, and I don't know if I have faith this is fixable. They need a very solid summer here.

 

[Hale The Villain]

This is quickly becoming a league that feels like there's no real path to success for the Senators even available. Maybe it's always been that way and I just had childlike wonder, but woof are some of those US teams just drowning in riches in comparison.

This franchise has always been playing on hard mode, but yeah it does seem like players are becoming more picky about where they want to play.

We desperately need the new downtown arena to be built. That will help attract talent compared to our current set-up.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

This is quickly becoming a league that feels like there's no real path to success for the Senators even available. Maybe it's always been that way and I just had childlike wonder, but woof are some of those US teams just drowning in riches in comparison.

It is. Between players getting too much power to choose where they want to play (and preferring the USA and warm climate over Canada), and certain deep pocket teams being able to spend and bend the rules to their favor, it almost feels like the best we can hope for is a lucky underdog dog for a couple playoff rounds.

With that and the lack of good physical games and old school rivalries, it's really getting hard to continue caring about the team and the league.

 

[Icelevel]

This is quickly becoming a league that feels like there's no real path to success for the Senators even available. Maybe it's always been that way and I just had childlike wonder, but woof are some of those US teams just drowning in riches in comparison.

True

 

[Hale The Villain]

It is. Between players getting too much power to choose where they want to play (and preferring the USA and warm climate over Canada), and certain deep pocket teams being able to spend and bend the rules to their favor, it almost feels like the best we can hope for is a lucky underdog dog for a couple playoff rounds.

With that and the lack of good physical games and old school rivalries, it's really getting hard to continue caring about the team and the league.

It may seem hopeless but that's mostly because we've been run worse than arguably any other franchise in the league for close to a decade.

Look at Winnipeg as an example of what kind of success a small market Canadian team can have if it's run correctly.

They have managed to hold onto key talent, have made the playoffs 6 of the last 7 years, and have an outside shot at winning it all this year.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

It may seem hopeless but that's mostly because we've been run worse than arguably any other franchise in the league for close to a decade.

Look at Winnipeg as an example of what kind of success a small market Canadian team can have if it's run correctly.

They have managed to hold onto key talent, have made the playoffs 6 of the last 7 years, and have an outside shot at winning it all this year.

But also look at how many players over the years have pushed their way out. Still damned hard for them to compete.

But yes, new ownership and management here will help....but it's still one hell of an upward climb.

 

[ijif]

We are clearly at a disadvantage compared to other teams, but I do not think that precludes us from icing a competitive team.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

This franchise has always been playing on hard mode, but yeah it does seem like players are becoming more picky about where they want to play.

We desperately need the new downtown arena to be built. That will help attract talent compared to our current set-up.

Ya, they've pretty much been on hard mode forever, but it also seems like things in the NHL have been trending more and more in the direction of players dictating the landscape for who gets to contend and who doesn't.

At least the one saving grace is the salary cap. If the players want their 50%, they have to have enough willing to play in Canada, but it seems fair to acknowledge just how much more difficult it is for Canadian teams. I wouldn't mind a little stricter terms to it like the NBA has done to try to prevent super teams.

You are probably bang on with the need for the downtown arena to be taken more seriously. At least if you're playing in say Edmonton, it's first class facilities in a good location. And they need to focus on drafting and development, get back to the roots of what's needed in a place like Ottawa and stop trying to fast forward it with guys with a year or two left on their deals.

It is. Between players getting too much power to choose where they want to play (and preferring the USA and warm climate over Canada), and certain deep pocket teams being able to spend and bend the rules to their favor, it almost feels like the best we can hope for is a lucky underdog dog for a couple playoff rounds.

With that and the lack of good physical games and old school rivalries, it's really getting hard to continue caring about the team and the league.

I get that. The older I get, the less I'm willing to buy in basically on a hope and a prayer, and the game has certainly changed a lot. I miss the days of the rivalries feeling like they existed at the player level too, but it's mostly a sham, and only there for the fans.

 

[dumbdick]

I think a few teams like vegas, Avs and NYI have cloued in to the fact that picks are overvalued in this league. Outside of the top 20 you're not getting an impact player. Outside the top 50 you're not even getting a player.

For fun, go back and build a team with just players we drafted top 5 and mock trade away every other 1st round pick.

We'd be laughably better under that strategy.

 

[albator71]

The NTC are a serious problem for Canadian franchises, it's become more and more difficult to build a winner as a team in Canada. I hope they do something about that in the next CBA

 

[Ice-Tray]

I think a few teams like vegas, Avs and NYI have cloued in to the fact that picks are overvalued in this league. Outside of the top 20 you're not getting an impact player. Outside the top 50 you're not even getting a player.

For fun, go back and build a team with just players we drafted top 5 and mock trade away every other 1st round pick.

We'd be laughably better under that strategy.

I think everyone knows how little value picks have relative to position, except fans.

 

[GCK]

The NTC are a serious problem for Canadian franchises, it's become more and more difficult to build a winner as a team in Canada. I hope they do something about that in the next CBA

Nothing will change with NTCs as the league would need to give something huge in return.

 

[JD1]

This team, apart from the bad mgmt. / owner situation, has just been blessed with horrible luck for two seasons

With Norris injured basically all of last season, then Pinto suspended and Norris gone again shortly after Pinto returns, we've been down a top 9 calibre player for 2 seasons now. But, we need to add Formenton to that.

Two top 9 players missing for 2 seasons and nothing to show for it in return.

I'm not making excuses for anyone but that's a tough pill to swallow for any team.

 

[Micklebot]

This team, apart from the bad mgmt. / owner situation, has just been blessed with horrible luck for two seasons

With Norris injured basically all of last season, then Pinto suspended and Norris gone again shortly after Pinto returns, we've been down a top 9 calibre player for 2 seasons now. But, we need to add Formenton to that.

Two top 9 players missing for 2 seasons and nothing to show for it in return.

I'm not making excuses for anyone but that's a tough pill to swallow for any team.

I hear what you're saying, but wrt Formenton, we cut bait long enough ago that we've had time to fill the void.

Losing one of Norris/Pinto for essentiall all of the last two seasons is a tough break though for a team that was only expected to be a bubble team if things went right last year, this year is another story (we're too bad for it to be just that).

Young teams trying to deal with some pretty substantial adversity, it's tough, hopefully they learn from it and it makes them better down the line, but in the mean time it's rough.

 

[OD99]

Random thought but it feels like there were a lot more future draft picks in trades this year.

'26 and '27 picks, which seems odd. Turning into CHL style trades.

 

[Beech]

If you get on the 416, then I95, then a boat, then a plane, then a dog sled, then a boat, then a Toyota 4Runner, boat again, train (not that kind), dog sled (not the same one, dogs get tired), hitch hike for a bit, bus....you end up back in Ottawa. f*** Bettman.

Loach,

You left out a boat between the 416 and I95. You will get people lost with missing instructions.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Random thought but it feels like there were a lot more future draft picks in trades this year.

'26 and '27 picks, which seems odd. Turning into CHL style trades.

Makes you wonder if the pro level scouts think there might be a significant drop in overall talent for a few seasons. I remember a discussion on here a few years ago when some (amateur) rule changes were announced, wondering when the "golden years" of development are with kids. I think some thought was around the 13-15 range, while there talk of other ages. You look at the missed covid years being season 2020-21 and 2021-22...that would be in that group.

....that's if there's anything to the idea of there being a key (age) year for development for the majority of kids. Either way, it's something to watch play out over the next 5-10 years or so.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Hopefully the CBJ will go on a heater until the end of the season.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

The standings sure are interesting atm. Divisions all still up for grabs, even Edmonton if they can win their games in hand.

With the Islanders winning 5 in a row, TB is in serious danger of being passed. Same goes for Detroit.

If Calgary could win their game in hand, they'd only be 4 points behind Vegas and play them next Thursday. They've got their chance if they're able to grab it.

A couple other teams behind them threatening, but they're running out of time.

Doubt it happens to Vegas, but that would be quite the turn of events to see both TB and Vegas outside looking in. Or for Detroit to drop out would be satisfying. Should be a fun finish.

For the Senators I think they can still get past Anaheim if they bear down here. They have a tough sked to finish off the season. Need to lose against CBJ next Thursday and start getting a point spread there. I think we can get down to that bottom 3rd spot.