Around the League Thread part V

[YP44]

That's a nothing trade. That'd be like trading away Lias Andersson today.

At the time I was pissed about Purcell.
I thought Purcell-Boyle-Moulson was our future though.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

At the time I was pissed about Purcell.
I thought Purcell-Boyle-Moulson was our future though.

Even Lombardi had Purcell penciled in on the top line in one of his charts to season ticket members. Plans changed I guess when Terry Murray tried to force him to become a checker.

Then the next two seasons Purcell puts up seasons of 51 points and 65 points playing on Tampa Bay's top line alongside Steven Stamkos. Seems like Lombardi got bent over the barrel by Tampa Bay on more than one occasion.

 

[kilowatt]

Even Lombardi had Purcell penciled in on the top line in one of his charts to season ticket members. Plans changed I guess when Terry Murray tried to force him to become a checker.

Then the next two seasons Purcell puts up seasons of 51 points and 65 points playing on Tampa Bay's top line alongside Steven Stamkos. Seems like Lombardi got bent over the barrel by Tampa Bay on more than one occasion.

Purcell wasn't great defensively, and Tampa — like most rational teams, I would imagine — chose not shove a square peg into a round hole. He's good offensively? Let's put him into offensive situations.

 

[ScoreZeGoals]

Combining the Panthers last 3 major recent trades:

Florida trades:
Huberdeau
Weeger
Owen Tippett
Cole Schwindt
Ty Smilanic
2023 1st round pick (top 10 protected, would slide to 2024 1st)
2024 1st round pick (top 10 protected, would slide to 2025 1st)
2025 1st round pick (lottery protected, would slide to 2026 1sr)
2023 3rd round pick
2022 4th round pick

Florida receives:
Tkachuk
Giroux (for two months)
Chiarot (for two months)
German Rubtsov (now a free agent)
Connor Bunnaman
2024 5th round pick (Flyers)
2024 4th round pick (Calgary)

This is an absolute disaster

 

[Steve Zissou]

@ScoreZeGoals Makes it seems pretty bad when you spell it out like that.

 

[kilowatt]

Combining the Panthers last 3 major recent trades:

Florida trades:
Huberdeau
Weeger
Owen Tippett
Cole Schwindt
Ty Smilanic
2023 1st round pick (top 10 protected, would slide to 2024 1st)
2024 1st round pick (top 10 protected, would slide to 2025 1st)
2025 1st round pick (lottery protected, would slide to 2026 1sr)
2023 3rd round pick
2022 4th round pick

Florida receives:
Tkachuk
Giroux (for two months)
Chiarot (for two months)
German Rubtsov (now a free agent)
Connor Bunnaman
2024 5th round pick (Flyers)
2024 4th round pick (Calgary)

This is an absolute disaster

That's pretty terrible.

Edit: They also shipped Vatrano to the Rangers for a 4th round pick, and don't forget that they didn't have their first this year either (from the Reinhart trade).

 

[Brodeur]

Zito probably invoking the LA Rams F them picks attitude. Naturally you don't want to be giving that many firsts for pure rentals but a pick in the 20s is more likely to yield a replacement level guy than a David Pastrnak.

Tippett might sound more exciting since he still some lingering new car smell as a former top pick but he's no longer waiver exempt after this season. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being a vagabond a la Daniel Sprong. Schwindt and Smilanic don't strike me as surefire future NHLers. Florida can use those contract spots to take flyers on undrafted free agents (Anton Levtchi, Nathan Staios).

Their D looks a little suspect without Weegar, but I'll be curious to see how Tkachuk (age 24-30) will fare versus Huberdeau (age 30-37).

I'd just chalk it up to the arms race in a tough division. Tampa gave up two first rounders for Brandon Hagel who might have already hit the shooting percentage regression. But if those picks are later in the round, it won't be terrible.

 

[johnjm22]

No Kings in the top 10. Dom is going soft on us.

Edit: He did give drew an honorable mention.

 

[All The Kings Men]

No Kings in the top 10. Dom is going soft on us.

Edit: He did give drew an honorable mention.

not without congratulating himself for his magnanimity

 

[kingsfan28]

At the time I was pissed about Purcell.
I thought Purcell-Boyle-Moulson was our future though.

Then DL saw Boyle skate...oh boy. Funny how things looked good in all his boxes until they were put on the ice.

 

[kingsfan28]

not without congratulating himself for his magnanimity

When did the Athletic start hiring hacks? I guess they're resorting to click bait now to keep them afloat.

 

[Brodeur]

When did the Athletic start hiring hacks? I guess they're resorting to click bait now to keep them afloat.

I think it was a couple offseasons ago and Dom wrote a bad article about why Boston should offer sheet Mikhail Sergachev. Normally I don't bother commenting on Athletic articles but I had the compulsive need to point out that he was calculating the compensatory picks incorrectly.

I'd expect a factual mistake like that on a main board post on HF, but it's a bad sign when a professional writer didn't have it right.

Avoided the urge to point out that Boston had its own RFA (Jake DeBrusk) to sign so it didn't make sense for them to play the offer sheet game. Within a couple hours of Dom publishing his article, Boston resigned DeBrusk and had no cap space. It was amusing to see his article rendered pointless in the time that it took for him to write it.

Although I suppose if your job requires you to crank out a couple articles a week, there's gonna be a bunch of duds.

 

[johnjm22]

There's a big difference between the Doughty you get when he has nothing to play for, and the Doughty you get when he's actually playing games that matter.

Between 2018 and 2021 Doughty was mostly sleep walking. The analytics reflect that.

The problem with using stats (traditional or advanced) to project out future play, is that they're based on past data.

Dom doesn't know Doughty intimately as a player like we do. His models can't factor in the qualitative. We know that Doughty will play at a very high level if the team around him actually has something to play for.

I predict Drew will have a very strong 22/23 season.

 

[raswilliam]

 

[BringTheReign]

For every situation where the analytics don’t predict further decline like Doughty’s, there are two or three where it’s spot on a la Subban, S. Jones, or Benn. I get that Dom’s tone can be irritating at times, but he has admitted when he was wrong on multiple occasions, and he threw some serious props to multiple Kings players for their seasons this year. Every fan base thinks every national writer is biased against their guys specifically at some point or another. Doughty deserved criticism for how much he took his foot off the gas, but it’s probably for the best at this point given the mileage we’ll need from him in the future.

 

[YP44]

Then DL saw Boyle skate...oh boy. Funny how things looked good in all his boxes until they were put on the ice.

I mean Boyle still was playing in the league last year.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

For every situation where the analytics don’t predict further decline like Doughty’s, there are two or three where it’s spot on a la Subban, S. Jones, or Benn. I get that Dom’s tone can be irritating at times, but he has admitted when he was wrong on multiple occasions, and he threw some serious props to multiple Kings players for their seasons this year. Every fan base thinks every national writer is biased against their guys specifically at some point or another. Doughty deserved criticism for how much he took his foot off the gas, but it’s probably for the best at this point given the mileage we’ll need from him in the future.

Dom and Yost were flippantly idiotic post Doughty norris despite his excellent play because they were butthurt about EK. Even if Dom has come around in the last few months, it was pretty clear his fanboying overrode his 'professional' opinion even when the analytics disagreed so he could score cheap points by riling up the EK booster club.

This wasn't about his model 'being right' about Doughty for parts of 18-20, it was his sudden "who cares about analytics" stance towards Doughty when it wasn't convenient and his childish shitposting that permeated anything he wrote about dmen between 2013-ish to 2018. Him being hired by The Athletic made him stop that and he even deleted a bunch of the really bad tweets but it was pretty clear he had an agenda, this isn't just a 'woe is me, poor us Kings fans' thing.

And, frankly, it was easy for him to lay off once EK fell apart and left a Canadian market.

 

[BringTheReign]

Dom and Yost were flippantly idiotic post Doughty norris despite his excellent play because they were butthurt about EK. Even if Dom has come around in the last few months, it was pretty clear his fanboying overrode his 'professional' opinion even when the analytics disagreed so he could score cheap points by riling up the EK booster club.

This wasn't about his model 'being right' about Doughty for parts of 18-20, it was his sudden "who cares about analytics" stance towards Doughty when it wasn't convenient and his childish shitposting that permeated anything he wrote about dmen between 2013-ish to 2018. Him being hired by The Athletic made him stop that and he even deleted a bunch of the really bad tweets but it was pretty clear he had an agenda, this isn't just a 'woe is me, poor us Kings fans' thing.

Welp, I’m not on Twitter so that explains what I missed.

I’ve only known him as a writer at The Athletic.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Welp, I’m not on Twitter so that explains what I missed.

I’ve only known him as a writer at The Athletic.

Oh man, don't worry, you didn't miss much...lol

it wasn't just twitter i just forget where he was blogging before too.

He's a decent enough writer and at least tries some interesting things but as pointed out above his lack of knowledge of major parts of the game, his smug attitude towards criticism or contrary opinions (or even facts), and his clear agendas undercut anything good he brings.

 

[kingsfan28]

I mean Boyle still was playing in the league last year.

It took Torts almost cutting him in 2013 because he was slow AF to get it into his head he needs to improve. He never believed he was a bad skater. Then he hired a skating coach and got better.

 

[kilowatt]

For every situation where the analytics don’t predict further decline like Doughty’s, there are two or three where it’s spot on a la Subban, S. Jones, or Benn. I get that Dom’s tone can be irritating at times, but he has admitted when he was wrong on multiple occasions, and he threw some serious props to multiple Kings players for their seasons this year. Every fan base thinks every national writer is biased against their guys specifically at some point or another. Doughty deserved criticism for how much he took his foot off the gas, but it’s probably for the best at this point given the mileage we’ll need from him in the future.

The problem I have with Dom's models is they don't seem to take into account the team surrounding the player. Seth Jones is probably overpaid, but Chicago was so brutal last year. If you swap Jones and Makar (who led the best contract list), is Jones still on this list or does Jones put up a boatload of points and look like a top pairing defenseman? Probably the latter.

Doughty suffered the same fate on some pretty bad Kings teams. And as a veteran on a rebuilding team, the truth is how motivated are you to go out and put your body on the line night after night for a team that isn't going anywhere?

We can laugh at Chicago for the trade, sure, but not the player. Is Jones overpaid? Probably, but not by that much. Would you take Jones at $7 million? I would. Especially on a contending team with something to play for.

 

[cyclones22]

The best part was the constant pimping of EK's possession numbers but blaming poor goaltending as to why EK was among the worst in the league in GAA on ice per 60 every season. But he controls play! Being on the ice for a high number of goals against and low save % absolutely had to do with the fact that EK is a bad defender and the opposition getting golden scoring opportunities while he was out there. In Drew's prime he had league leading type possession numbers AND low GAA on ice per 60. Oh and don't forget that EK didn't play on the PK because he was more valuable to be played exclusively on the PP. What a joke.

 

[All The Kings Men]

A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing.

 

[BringTheReign]

The problem I have with Dom's models is they don't seem to take into account the team surrounding the player. Seth Jones is probably overpaid, but Chicago was so brutal last year. If you swap Jones and Makar (who led the best contract list), is Jones still on this list or does Jones put up a boatload of points and look like a top pairing defenseman? Probably the latter.

Doughty suffered the same fate on some pretty bad Kings teams. And as a veteran on a rebuilding team, the truth is how motivated are you to go out and put your body on the line night after night for a team that isn't going anywhere?

We can laugh at Chicago for the trade, sure, but not the player. Is Jones overpaid? Probably, but not by that much. Would you take Jones at $7 million? I would. Especially on a contending team with something to play for.

I agree with this critique, but I'll add that metric tracking for defensive play is woefully inadequate for everyone in the public sphere right now. It makes sense--it's always going to be harder to track the absence of offense (via strong defensive play stopping it before it develops) than the offense itself. It'll be interesting to see if player and puck tracking data changes this at all. Defensive metrics have improved in recent years, and I think the relatively solid praise Roy and Anderson have received from analytics folks proves that in matching our eye test as fans.

I think the big thing is that at a certain cap hit level, you should be influencing shot and/or goal share at least at a breakeven rate. It's why your example of Jones at $7M vs. $9M+ is easy to agree with. That's the difference between a strong #2 defenseman versus an elite #1D. I think that's why Jones is such a battleground for eye test vs. analytics. The latter has never rated him as a true #1D even on playoff Blue Jackets teams, but the former points to his tremendous amount of icetime and elite physical tools.

 

[Little Psycho]

All 5 Ducks fans coming outta the wood work to bitch about a Brown statue. Classic.