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Around the League Thread part V

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Raccoon Jesus said:
Please tell me we're not still doing mental gymnastics to give Brown a participation medal for being the least-bad producer on the worst PP1 in the NHL
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Yeah, it pretty hard for anyone , especially him to get points when they can't get the pp set up, a shot through, or when they do have a rebound, it gets cleared. Can't remember the last time we had a cross seam one timer go in, you know, the type of pp goals team score on us nightly.
 
Raccoon Jesus said:
The Ducks are goaltending themselves into OT on nights they just don't have 'it'. Very very good at getting points.
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The Ducks historicay manage to rack up the OTLs. Go back through the standings the last 5 or so years and they are consistently one of the top 3 beneficiaries of the loser point.
 
lumbergh said:
I know it's hard to believe, but these are the numbers, and there is Brown at 4th amongst forwards for Goals For per 60:
View attachment 504046
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That doesn't mean anything at all.

Stats are ruining American sports. They have far more relevance in single event games, baseball, football, sure, but choosing to believe that somebody isn't a problem just because they are "4th best" out of two units just doesn't mean anything.

Stats are compliations of data from previous play in a variety of circumstances, they are in no way indicative of current or future performance. When you have a sport that involves changing personnel mid-play you really have to take any statistic with a giant grain of salt.

Folks are constantly trying to create new stats that are more nuanced to somehow try not just to explain but to predict results. They rely on them to try and prove theories without contextualizing the data.

And that is all assuming the data is accurate, and by no means is it an exact science. Often times the collection of the data is skewed in favor of the home team by their statisticians - not fraudulently, but just because they are more familiar with the home players. Hell, there are times when Brown has turned the puck away three times on the same shift but has zero giveaways in the final boxscore.

But even remove that argument, and ask yourself this: what would the player who receives Brown's PP minutes produce? It very well could be that there are 4 or 5 other forwards who would produce so much more in the exact same set of circumstances?

All we really need to do here is watch him play, which is exceedingly poor, and look at the results. 2 PP points in 64 games is even worse than the eye test. No stat line means more.
 
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tbrown33 said:
The Ducks historicay manage to rack up the OTLs. Go back through the standings the last 5 or so years and they are consistently one of the top 3 beneficiaries of the loser point.
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It has been known as the Mighty Point in my part of the world as the Ducks led the Pacific Division with 12 Mighty Points in the first year of the shootout.

Since the 2005-06 season and the introduction of the shootout, the Kings have only had more Mighty Points than the Ducks on four occasions with one year being equal. When counting this season, that is 17 seasons. The name fits.
 
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lumbergh said:
Yeah. So does Danault, in 44 games. Who’s pissing his pants ranting about Danault? The whole power play stinks.
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Danault is on the second unit and sometimes they only get the last 20 seconds of the pp after nothing has went right and things are disjointed. Plus hes been great in other aspects of the game. Brown hasnt and I think thats why criticism is amplified for him. Everyone is looking to pounce on him every opportunity.
 
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bland said:
That doesn't mean anything at all.

Stats are ruining American sports. They have far more relevance in single event games, baseball, football, sure, but choosing to believe that somebody isn't a problem just because they are "4th best" out of two units just doesn't mean anything.

Stats are compliations of data from previous play in a variety of circumstances, they are in no way indicative of current or future performance. When you have a sport that involves changing personnel mid-play you really have to take any statistic with a giant grain of salt.

Folks are constantly trying to create new stats that are more nuanced to somehow try not just to explain but to predict results. They rely on them to try and prove theories without contextualizing the data.

And that is all assuming the data is accurate, and by no means is it an exact science. Often times the collection of the data is skewed in favor of the home team by their statisticians - not fraudulently, but just because they are more familiar with the home players. Hell, there are times when Brown has turned the puck away three times on the same shift but has zero giveaways in the final boxscore.

But even remove that argument, and ask yourself this: what would the player who receives Brown's PP minutes produce? It very well could be that there are 4 or 5 other forwards who would produce so much more in the exact same set of circumstances?

All we really need to do here is watch him play, which is exceedingly poor, and look at the results. 2 PP points in 64 games is even worse than the eye test. No stat line means more.
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Well you heard it here. Stats are in no way indicative of current or future performance. They’re also made up and inaccurate.

I don’t know how one would make up the stats I quoted. It’s just being on the ice when a goal is scored divided by the ice time. Not complicated. Whatever. You’re free to disagree, but the numbers are what they are.
 
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LAKings88 said:
Durzi is just elusive and decisive. It's been so long since I've seen that on the blueline in LA. Doughty and Kopi still look to pass it in the net. You can almost see the gears grinding as they hold the puck trying to decide to shoot or not.
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I find myself staring at your profile picture every time I see you post and I finally realized that's from an OMAM music video.

Just figured I'd point that out after all the time I had to think about it.
 
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lumbergh said:
Well you heard it here. Stats are in no way indicative of current or future performance. They’re also made up and inaccurate.

I don’t know how one would make up the stats I quoted. It’s just being on the ice when a goal is scored divided by the ice time. Not complicated. Whatever. You’re free to disagree, but the numbers are what they are.
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That isn't what I said. At all.

I said you are using that data as a faulty tool. It doesn't say anything at all, its just a collection of numbers that you are choosing to interpret in a manner that is in no way realistic.

Stats are interesting. That's it. They are not a predictive tool, they don't understand context, they don't offer an opinion. Its just a collection of data. The problem is their constant, consistent misrepresentation. Its become a lazy way of trying to justify something, proof of an opinion.

By no means am I singling you out here. A couple of weeks ago another poster tried to use data to suggest that Matt Roy wasn't really a second pairing defender despite the actual fact that he has been deployed as one for three years now. He used "quality of opposition" to show that he faced a lower rated group of players to justify that opinion. Well, no shit. A 2nd pairing defender is going to play fewer minutes against top opposition, especially when the top pair defender on your team leads the universe in time on ice for over a decade. That stat meant nothing, but it was used to back up an opinion.

Dustin Brown is the 4th best PP scoring forward according to the info you posted. Cool. But does it mean that nobody else would do better given the same opportunity? No, not at all. Its just collected data interpreted poorly when the reality is that his spacing, positioning, passing, shooting and puck recovery skills have only resulted in 2 points in 64 games - all of which he played on the PP.

The game is played differently depending on the circumstances. Home, road, leading, trailing, different linemates, different times, back to backs, long layoffs, all kinds of variable conditions in which players do different things under similar circumstances. You will need oddly specific data to quantify those situations, all independent of each other, then filtered by what is still a very human personal opinion to reach a conclusion that is almost always just a digit or two after the decimal to separate the wheat from the chaff.

I find the numbers interesting, but gee whiz, they are far from accurate tools to decipher what's going to happen next.
 
YP44 said:
is he a needle mover? No. but he is a free LHD who i think maybe better than Maatta
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That's what I meant, he doesn't move the needle from Olli Maatta, which should say enough. Three games into his time in LA we'd be yelling to demote him too.

When Edler returns it'd just be a further logjam of depth guys and kids who deserve a shot but aren't quite NHL ready yet, like Moverare.
 
lumbergh said:
Yeah. So does Danault, in 44 games. Who’s pissing his pants ranting about Danault? The whole power play stinks.
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If you want to replace Danault on the powerplay, go for it. It's at least defensible where he's better as a whole with 5-on-5 play.

There are simply better wingers than Brown on the team. There aren't really any better centers than Danault (aside from Kopitar).
 
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kingsfan said:
That's what I meant, he doesn't move the needle from Olli Maatta, which should say enough. Three games into his time in LA we'd be yelling to demote him too.

When Edler returns it'd just be a further logjam of depth guys and kids who deserve a shot but aren't quite NHL ready yet, like Moverare.
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anyone else keep forgetting about Edler?
 
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