I would say Oilers is the Leafs when their top players play like top players. Whenever our top players play like top players-regular season and playoffs, we look like we can beat anyone.
Thats pretty much what you expect from a top heavy team.
Difference is that Oilers got a 5mil deadcap goalie plus another 3 mil overpaid Dman and a 1.9mil on retention/buyout of Neal. Thats 10mil cap space that they can't use.
They buried Campbell in the minors (our great "starter" for two years) and he's taking up 3.85 now and I'd argue Brodie fell off so hard he was at least 3 million overpaid too. Our crap starter makes almost a million more than their crap starter and our huge LTIR is causing all sorts of problems.
I say they are similar too outside of special teams as the 5v5 differentials show just how huge a gulf there is between teams like Toronto and Edmonton and a team like Florida.
EDMONTON THIS RUN (20 games):
5v5 with McDavid:
Goals for/60: 3.54
Goals against:/60: 2.16
5v5 with Drai:
Goals for/60: 3.34
Goals against:/60: 2.76
5v5 with Bouchard:
Goals for/60: 3.8
Goals against:/60: 1.84
5v5 the rest of the Oilers team not playing with McDavid/Bouchard/Draisaitl:
Goals for/60: 1.06
Goals against:/60: 2.53
Goaltending: sub .900, crap analytics
TORONTO THE LAST 3 YEARS (25 games):
5v5 with Rielly:
Goals for/60: 3.07
Goals against/60: 1.55
5v5 with Marner:
Goals for/60: 3.08
Goals against/60: 1.72
5v5 with Matthews:
Goals for/60: 2.81
Goals against/60: 2.06
5v5 The entire rest of the team without them:
Goals for/60: 1.57
Goals against/60: 3.14
Goaltending: sub .900, crap analytics outside of Woll
FLORIDA THIS RUN (19 games):
Barkov 5v5:
Goals for/60: 2.36
Goals against:/60: 1.77
Reinhart 5v5:
Goals for/60: 1.68
Goals against:/60: 1.26
Ekblad 5v5:
Goals for/60: 2.42
Goals against:/60: 1.40
The rest of the Panthers team not playing with Barkov/Reinhart/Ekblad:
Goals for/60: 2.23
Goals against:/60: 1.97
Goaltending: .916, good analytics.
Two deeply flawed incomplete teams in terms of goaltending and support versus a super complete team that can win even when their PP isnt firing.
Kind of points in the direction both teams should be going although Im not sure much can be done with the stupid cap in place. Both team should sweep away their bottom 6 setup as they are getting killed and replace their current goalies. Just doing that with the right guys would make a massive difference.
Maybe McDavid can will his team to a cup still...who knows? Much like with the Leafs, he really cant count on any kind of 2 way game from his bottom 6 or much clutch goaltending like the Panthers have. I still hope he can pull it off as the opportunity may not come again.