Around the league part 2

[Raccoon Jesus]

Another fine product of the best goaltender development system in the league.

Look at that consistency though!

Funny though I can imagine a guy like that being successful behind those Kings teams...just stop routine shots and swallow rebounds.


I'ts a personal philosophy that I have no desire to actually research but my theory is always that 'safe' goalies (ie Copley) are excellent behind good defensive teams because they DO the routine stuff, but when you play tougher opponents especially in a series, you get exposed to more high danger and scouting. On the flipside, the stuff that makes Quick's stats suck behind such a team--letting in some routine stuff, creating your own problems through aggression instead of just being passive and waiting--is what makes him such a money goaltender--he is capable of saving a team's ass and making saves goalies have no business making if you can stomach his unforced errors, where the 'safe' goalie is going to get ripped to shreds (and why guys like Brian Elliott keep getting jobs and people defend them to the death--because they can give you 40 regular season games of .925 and then they 'fall apart' in the playoffs and people don't seem to understand how it's a different game).

Jones, unfortunately, appears to be neither at this point, his mental game for the 'routine' stuff got shot a long time ago.

 

[johnjm22]

Look at that consistency though!

Funny though I can imagine a guy like that being successful behind those Kings teams...just stop routine shots and swallow rebounds.


I'ts a personal philosophy that I have no desire to actually research but my theory is always that 'safe' goalies (ie Copley) are excellent behind good defensive teams because they DO the routine stuff, but when you play tougher opponents especially in a series, you get exposed to more high danger and scouting. On the flipside, the stuff that makes Quick's stats suck behind such a team--letting in some routine stuff, creating your own problems through aggression instead of just being passive and waiting--is what makes him such a money goaltender--he is capable of saving a team's ass and making saves goalies have no business making if you can stomach his unforced errors, where the 'safe' goalie is going to get ripped to shreds (and why guys like Brian Elliott keep getting jobs and people defend them to the death--because they can give you 40 regular season games of .925 and then they 'fall apart' in the playoffs and people don't seem to understand how it's a different game).

Jones, unfortunately, appears to be neither at this point, his mental game for the 'routine' stuff got shot a long time ago.

I also think Quick has a tendency to get blown up in "lost cause" games. Which hurts his overall numbers.

You saw it in the 2014 series against San Jose, and in the 2022 series against Edmonton.

The reason why 2022 against Edmonton was closer than 2023, is because of Quick IMO. But you wouldn't know it by looking at his stats because he got blown up in games 2 and 3 when it didn't matter anyways.

 

[kingsholygrail]

I also think Quick has a tendency to get blown up in "lost cause" games. Which hurts his overall numbers.

You saw it in the 2014 series against San Jose, and in the 2022 series against Edmonton.

The reason why 2022 against Edmonton was closer than 2023, is because of Quick IMO. But you wouldn't know it by looking at his stats because he got blown up in games 2 and 3 when it didn't matter anyways.

Quick doesn't get pulled a lot even when he's getting blown up, too. Like you said "lost cause" games. It'd be interesting to do the leg work on that theory.

 

[kingsfan28]

Look at that consistency though!

Funny though I can imagine a guy like that being successful behind those Kings teams...just stop routine shots and swallow rebounds.


I'ts a personal philosophy that I have no desire to actually research but my theory is always that 'safe' goalies (ie Copley) are excellent behind good defensive teams because they DO the routine stuff, but when you play tougher opponents especially in a series, you get exposed to more high danger and scouting. On the flipside, the stuff that makes Quick's stats suck behind such a team--letting in some routine stuff, creating your own problems through aggression instead of just being passive and waiting--is what makes him such a money goaltender--he is capable of saving a team's ass and making saves goalies have no business making if you can stomach his unforced errors, where the 'safe' goalie is going to get ripped to shreds (and why guys like Brian Elliott keep getting jobs and people defend them to the death--because they can give you 40 regular season games of .925 and then they 'fall apart' in the playoffs and people don't seem to understand how it's a different game).

Jones, unfortunately, appears to be neither at this point, his mental game for the 'routine' stuff got shot a long time ago.

Expect Jones to start both games vs the Kings and winning both only giving up 3 goals in 2 games. His next start, he'll give up 5 in 17 min and be yanked.

 

[johnjm22]

Not a bad signing by Vancouver. He would make a nice bottom sixer who can also PK. God knows our PK needs help. And we're lacking good defensive forwards.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Not a bad signing by Vancouver. He would make a nice bottom sixer who can also PK. God knows our PK needs help. And we're lacking good defensive forwards.

Honest question: when was the last time Blake signed or traded for some cheap under the radar WAR player like this? Has he ever?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Honest question: when was the last time Blake signed or traded for some cheap under the radar WAR player like this? Has he ever?

Gavrikov
Korpisalo (not by jfresh's model but by GSAA)
Arvidsson
Danault
Fiala
Moore

Funny enough you could make the case that all of the already-pro acquisitions were heavily publicly-available-analytics darlings

Cheap, though? Never. Unless you count college UFAs like Lizotte, Walker, Iafallo with no prior pro history. The 'cheap' spots are reserved for 8 minute a game prospects.

 

[All The Kings Men]

EDIT: Nevermind.

 

[Maynard]

EDIT: Nevermind.

Always on the clock.

 

[KingsHockey24]

We should all get together for a picnic and talks Kings hockey and be nice to each other.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Gavrikov
Korpisalo (not by jfresh's model but by GSAA)
Arvidsson
Danault
Fiala
Moore

Funny enough you could make the case that all of the already-pro acquisitions were heavily publicly-available-analytics darlings

Cheap, though? Never. Unless you count college UFAs like Lizotte, Walker, Iafallo with no prior pro history. The 'cheap' spots are reserved for 8 minute a game prospects.

Gavrikov was definitely an undervalued player these past couple of years. I remember strongly advocating for him over Provorov and Chychrun early in the season. Blake made the right decision there.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Gavrikov was definitely an undervalued player these past couple of years. I remember strongly advocating for him over Provorov and Chychrun early in the season. Blake made the right decision there.

It's really funny how good they are at finding guys miscast on other teams--Gavrikov as a top pairing guy in CBJ, Moore as a lineup fringe in TO, Danault 1C in MTL--considering how much we can hammer on lineup utilization here

 

[SettlementRichie10]

It's really funny how good they are at finding guys miscast on other teams--Gavrikov as a top pairing guy in CBJ, Moore as a lineup fringe in TO, Danault 1C in MTL--considering how much we can hammer on lineup utilization here

View attachment 735429

Like we’ve said for a couple years now, we have all the tools, just no toolbox.

 

[johnjm22]

Top Maple Leafs prospect Rodion Amirov dies from brain tumor at 21

The Toronto Maple Leafs are mourning the loss of former first-round draft pick Rodion Amirov.

nypost.com

 

[King'sPawn]

Top Maple Leafs prospect Rodion Amirov dies from brain tumor at 21

The Toronto Maple Leafs are mourning the loss of former first-round draft pick Rodion Amirov.

nypost.com

That's so sad. So young, too.

 

[ZJames]

It's really funny how good they are at finding guys miscast on other teams--Gavrikov as a top pairing guy in CBJ, Moore as a lineup fringe in TO, Danault 1C in MTL--considering how much we can hammer on lineup utilization here

View attachment 735429

A great visualization of Todd's choices and it's effect on our mental health.

 

[Steve Zissou]

COL without Landeskog last year and now will be out without his again this year.

 

[johnjm22]

Yep.

 

[Fishhead]

Yep.

He forgot taxes.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Wasn't Tampa in a better position when Steve took over though? Detroit was in shambles.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Yep.

What conclusion are we even supposed to come to from claims like this, though? That it’s all just luck? Put Rob Blake on another team and maybe he’s the greatest GM of all time?

Why follow the sport at all if everything is just random variance? I find this viewpoint so pointless and cowardly. It shields everyone from real criticism.

 

[King'sPawn]

What conclusion are we even supposed to come to from claims like this, though? That it’s all just luck? Put Rob Blake on another team and maybe he’s the greatest GM of all time?

Why follow the sport at all if everything is just random variance? I find this viewpoint so pointless and cowardly. It shields everyone from real criticism.

I agree. Granted, there's a very high degree in variability and luck, but there's also a lot of skill to navigate those variables.

Like, yeah, Lombardi was lucky that he inherited a good core, that ownership was less hands-on than other teams, and more... but Lombardi had a vision, willingness to surround himself with the right people, and an execution that brought success to the Kings.

Would he have the same success on the Coyotes? Well, probably not. But would Blake have had the same results if he was GM during Lombardi's tenure? I don't think so. Would Taylor have had the same results if he wasn't fired after the 2005-06 season? I also don't think so.

So I don't know how thoughtful he thinks his conclusion is.

 

[Statto]

Quick doesn't get pulled a lot even when he's getting blown up, too. Like you said "lost cause" games. It'd be interesting to do the leg work on that theory.

Examine 2011-12. The number of 1 goal games is massive. He had little offensive support and IIRC got blown up a couple of times. if you look at the games he was absolutely robbed of the Vezina because Lundqvist had so much more offensive support and far fewer 1 goal games.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I also don't think that any GM that gets fired, even the dumbest ones, will say well that was just bad luck/out of my control.

There are a million moving parts and one can always be more self analytical about what they could have done better. I mean quite often we point to one move (IE Lucic trade) as that was 'the moment' they blew it but in reality it's the sum of a lot of minor errors that become insurmountable and require a reset.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Examine 2011-12. The number of 1 goal games is massive. He had little offensive support and IIRC got blown up a couple of times. if you look at the games he was absolutely robbed of the Vezina because Lundqvist had so much more offensive support and far fewer 1 goal games.

Wins still factor in for voters in the Vezina for better or worse.