Around the League - Offseason Edition

[Stephen]

If you look through 5 years of any GM, I think you're going to find "pro acquisition errors" that are a lot more costly to fix than ones that can all collectively be exchanged for a rental defenseman at the cost of a 2nd round pick and 13 draft slots. Cap wasn't a barrier to signing Schenn or Acciari. In fact, it was mentioned that they'd been targeting Acciari for a while. Players have a choice.

Why would I spend time looking for errors from GM's that didn't negatively impact my team?

 

[The Podium]

Living and dying through high priced UFA players is a losing game (except for recent expansion teams).

Pens won Cups because they drafted Crosby, Malkin and Letang as their current core and then made hay when then they were on cheaper contracts.

When players are making top $$ in Cap world things are not going so well..

Pens the last 5 years.

View attachment 734173

Crosby, Malkin and Letang could't even win 4 playoff games in a single playoff season for the past 5 years.

PS. Crosby currently makes $8,700,000 and you couldn't even get a Willy Nylander at that price.

The pens won 2 cups on their entire cores post ELC contracts

Crosby 14.5 caphit%
Malkin 14.77 caphit%
Letang 11.28 caphit%
= 40.5% of their total cap (at the time of each signing respectively)

Cap hit at the time of the 2016 cup win
Crosby 12.18 caphit%
Malkin 13.33 caphit%
Letang 10.15 caphit%
= 35.66%

I get the point you’re trying to make, but you’re wrong. They didn’t take advantage of their core on cheap contracts.

 

[LeafEgo]

Pens ownership (like with Washington) is definitely going to ensure that the team does everything it can to be competitive as long as their franchise player is still skating. Like you can make a rational case for both teams to blow it up now, but realistically that's never going to happen.

I don't think they're going to be contenders, but under the context this is the type of move a team like them should be trying out since there's not much downside given the constraints on what they can do. At minimum should be entertaining to watch

Very little downside since all stakeholders involved seem to be in alignment that they want to contend for another year or two, even though expectations are probably low across the board - it's a comfortable position for the GM. EK was the best player on the market so it makes sense. Eventually his contract will be more of a buoy than an anchor staying above the cap floor, even if it means max retention at the tdl to try and mitigate the impact of the loss of the 1st round pick for their rebuild.

They're in a very different place than us after three cups. We're clawing our way to glory and scrutinizing every decision while they're more complacent and having a bit of fun while protecting the downside. If another first goes out the door just to try and make the playoffs then that will start to get questionable.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Why would I spend time looking for errors from GM's that didn't negatively impact my team?

One would do that to improve perspective and gain a better understanding of the hit and miss rate of pro acquisitions around the league and the detrimental costs associated with actual bad misses, in order to better align expectations and improve evaluations of performance.

 

[andora]

One would do that to improve perspective and gain a better understanding of the hit and miss rate of pro acquisitions around the league and the detrimental costs associated with actual bad misses, in order to better align expectations and improve evaluations of performance.

I would be interested in 5 year sample sizes of gms and the players they traded for and what percentage of those players were out of that organization within a year

 

[LeafEgo]

I would be interested in 5 year sample sizes of gms and the players they traded for and what percentage of those players were out of that organization within a year

The six team arms race in the East last year got a bit out of control. It was fun to watch but then Panthers went through after beating three of them. We might see more caution going forward.

 

[Arzak]

The pens won 2 cups on their entire cores post ELC contracts

Crosby 14.5 caphit%
Malkin 14.77 caphit%
Letang 11.28 caphit%
= 40.5% of their total cap (at the time of each signing respectively)

Cap hit at the time of the 2016 cup win
Crosby 12.18 caphit%
Malkin 13.33 caphit%
Letang 10.15 caphit%
= 35.66%

I get the point you’re trying to make, but you’re wrong. They didn’t take advantage of their core on cheap contracts.

This one is new. Another bizarre rationalization of our contracts. At the time of each signing ...

Why even post this crap? You can't compare it this way since they never had 40% tied at once like we do.

Completely ignoring they signed long-term...


Whatever it takes to make these contracts comparable. Tell me Crosby's cap hit was in year 6 and feel free to compare it to whatever Matthews is demanding now.

 

[Stephen]

One would do that to improve perspective and gain a better understanding of the hit and miss rate of pro acquisitions around the league and the detrimental costs associated with actual bad misses, in order to better align expectations and improve evaluations of performance.

The only worthwhile comparables in the GM game are the handful of guys who won the Stanley Cup, which was the Leafs own stated goal for this time period. I'm not looking to paper over the work of the previous GM by looking at even worse displays of general management because you've made a sweeping generalization.

 

[Menzinger]

While trading high picks is the price of doing business while in contender-mode, I don't agree that it's an automatic, annual exercise...

Some of the longer lasting contenders in the league were able to fuel a Stage II in their contending window by hitting on some significant first round picks. Boston with Pastrnak in 2014 (and McAvoy in their mini down cycle in 2016), Washington hitting on a string of pretty useful prospects like Kuznetsov, Forsberg (wasted), Vrana, Samsonov and Burakovsky while their contending window had started, and of course Tampa, who found their franchise cornerstone goalie Vasilevskiy a few years into the Yzerplan. And of course, Carolina. The masters of asset management, though they haven't really gone on any massive run and are stuck in a kind of neutral like Toronto.

There aren't any real rules, just to illustrate that you can move all your picks for immediate gains every year but the question of mileage comes into play... you might look back and realize there's a massive gap in your pipeline from all the deadline activity.

It's definitely true that overall there's no set rule to this. So much of it is luck.

Though I do think folks overrated the importance prospect pools. Too often teams with the top ranked pools never amount to anything, it's hardly a guarantee to cup or even playoff success (especially when prospects don't always even come close to hitting their ceilings in development)

Ultimately a good front office will find different ways of putting together talent for a winning team

 

[Dekes For Days]

The only worthwhile comparables in the GM game are the handful of guys who won the Stanley Cup, which was the Leafs own stated goal for this time period. I'm not looking to paper over the work of the previous GM by looking at even worse displays of general management because you've made a sweeping generalization.

Even GMs that win cups make "pro acquisition errors". What you pointed to was not unique to that regime or especially costly, and it didn't prevent the earlier acquisition of the players you mentioned. You also now seem to be acknowledging that looking at other GMs can be helpful. While we'd all like our GM's every single move to be absolutely perfect with hindsight, that's not exactly a realistic expectation.

 

[Stephen]

Even GMs that win cups make "pro acquisition errors". What you pointed to was not unique to that regime or especially costly, and it didn't prevent the earlier acquisition of the players you mentioned. You also now seem to be acknowledging that looking at other GMs can be helpful. While we'd all like our GM's every single move to be absolutely perfect with hindsight, that's not exactly a realistic expectation.

No, I'm saying Kyle Dubas made a series of awful signings that required draft capital to remove from the equation and lost opportunity. Draft capital that could have been used to acquire more talent at the deadline. I'm not couching this as a comment about understanding GM's in hockey. This is a direct accusation of a job done poorly that doesn't require reference to other GM's. That's all I'm going to say on the topic.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No, I'm saying Kyle Dubas made a series of awful signings that required draft capital to remove from the equation and lost opportunity. Draft capital that could have been used to acquire more talent at the deadline. I'm not couching this as a comment about understanding GM's in hockey. This is a direct accusation of a job done poorly that doesn't require reference to other GM's. That's all I'm going to say on the topic.

Like any GM in the league, not every signing he made over 5 years was spectacular in hindsight, but unlike with many GMs in the league, the cost to fix those occurrences was minimal. Technically, what you pointed to wasn't even really a loss of draft capital. It was a minimal loss of draft capital quality. The overall cost for the 3 you referenced was 13 draft slots and like the difference between a 2nd and 3rd round pick (what Lyubushkin likely would have cost alone). Not really something that had a significant impact on what we had available to use.

 

[shaner8989]

Anthony Davis makes more in 1 year then Connor Mcdavid makes in 5

That’s so terrible.

 

[Stephen]

Anthony Davis makes more in 1 year then Connor Mcdavid makes in 5

That’s so terrible.

Bettman's system is awful. Pits fans against players and turns an entertainment product into a master class in collective bargaining and amateur accounting. No wonder the game hasn't caught on.

 

[Mess]

While trading high picks is the price of doing business while in contender-mode, I don't agree that it's an automatic, annual exercise...

There aren't any real rules, just to illustrate that you can move all your picks for immediate gains every year but the question of mileage comes into play... you might look back and realize there's a massive gap in your pipeline from all the deadline activity.

With Dubas he wasn't just mortgage the current draft year for the current playoff year, he was mortgaging years into the future.

This was the 2023 playoffs and 2023 draft year where the Leafs only made 3 picks total for the 2 time in the last 3 years.

However he was mortgaging 2-3 years into the future to fuel the 2023 playoff loss. Leafs didn't have a 2nd round pick in 2023 and they also don't have one in 2024, 2025 nor 2026 already (3 years into the future.

PS. That is how you end up with 27 year previously undrafted Bobby McMann as a top 5 "in the pipeline' for the Leafs and depth for the parent team.

 

[Dekes For Days]

PS. That is how you end up with 27 year previously undrafted Bobby McMann as a top 5 "in the pipeline' for the Leafs and depth for the parent team.

Lol what? McMann is not in our top 5 prospects.

 

[ACC1224]

With Dubas he wasn't just mortgage the current draft year for the current playoff year, he was mortgaging years into the future.

This was the 2023 playoffs and 2023 draft year where the Leafs only made 3 picks total for the 2 time in the last 3 years.

View attachment 734351

However he was mortgaging 2-3 years into the future to fuel the 2023 playoff loss. Leafs didn't have a 2nd round pick in 2023 and they also don't have one in 2024, 2025 nor 2026 already (3 years into the future.

View attachment 734348

PS. That is how you end up with 27 year previously undrafted Bobby McMann as a top 5 "in the pipeline' for the Leafs and depth for the parent team.

Does the team even have 5 legit prospects?

 

[Stephen]

Does the team even have 5 legit prospects?

Depends on your definition of “legit” and “prospect” and how you quantify “5”.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Depends on your definition of “legit” and “prospect” and how you quantify “5”.

HFboards in a single post

 

[andora]

Depends on your definition of “legit” and “prospect” and how you quantify “5”.

This should be framed

 

[ULF_55]

Depends on your definition of “legit” and “prospect” and how you quantify “5”.

They're all prospects until they're not.

Even 1st. overall picks can flame out.

I bet Nolan Patrick was a "legit" prospect.
Cody Glass still a prospect, suspect, or just a depth player today?
Puljujarvi, and never to be forgotten Yakupov.

 

[The Podium]

This one is new. Another bizarre rationalization of our contracts. At the time of each signing ...

Why even post this crap? You can't compare it this way since they never had 40% tied at once like we do.

Completely ignoring they signed long-term...


Whatever it takes to make these contracts comparable. Tell me Crosby's cap hit was in year 6 and feel free to compare it to whatever Matthews is demanding now.

All I’m saying is 12+% of the cap isn’t a cheap ELC contract

 

[BallardEra]

‘Pittsburgh’s a better team today than when Dubas…:

 

[hockeyes]

Dubas continues to fall upwards, can't wait to hear about how great he is, or total radio silence when it blows up in his face. Probably get a few puff pieces before he takes over Bettmans job because why not.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Raptors worth over $1B more than Leafs, Blue Jays: report | Offside

While Canada might have a reputation as a hockey-first country, the NBA's Toronto Raptors remain the nation's most valuable team.

dailyhive.com

The problem with the Leafs is that ownership now has their fingers in all kinds of other projects.

The Leafs are no longer priority number one. What was once the crown jewel of the operation has taken a backseat. To other teams in other "sports".

The real truth is that Rogers and Bell DON'T WANT the Leafs to win.

They want the Jays to win.
They want the Raptors to win.
They want the soccer team to win.

They don't care if the Leafs win.

Because the Leafs are a shrinking part of their business. So they focus on loserball instead. Eventually they will stop caring about the Leafs all together.

Hopefully at that point they sell it to an individual owner more interested in winning cups, and leaving a legacy behind, than growing a stupid sports media empire monopoly.