Holy shit.
I was browsing through the Caps' capfriendly after seeing all their injuries. Mother of God, their 2023 offseason. At first I was like, OK, they have $22M in cap space. Lots of room, right?
Here is who they have signed beyond this year:
Forward
Ovechkin
Backstrom
Kuznetsov
Oshie
Mantha
Tom Wilson
Nic Dowd
Protas on his ELC
Defense
John Carlson
Goalie
Kuemper
Lindgren
They have one mother****ing defenseman signed for next year. One. They have to sign at least 4 forwards and at least 5 defenseman who take up no more than $22M. That's $2.44M per player.
If they want to keep the band together, here is who they have to re-sign, and my guess for how much they'd cost next year.
Forward
(Current $), Player - $My 22-23 guess
($3.5M) Lars Eller - $3M
($3.5M) Dylan Strome - $5.5M - scoring at a 58 point pace
($1.5M) Garnet Hathaway - $1M
($1.5M) Conor Sheary - $2.5M
Let's say they sign these guys, as those are the 4 guys I'd sign if I'm their armchair GM. I'm also ignoring Hagelin and Connor Brown as I think they'd be costlier than everyone other than DStrome.
Defense
($5.1M) Dmitry Orlov - $7M - he's their best defenseman. I could see him getting $7.5M possibly.
($2.2M) Nick Jensen - $3M
($0.95M) TVR - $1M
($0.8M) Erik Gustafsson $3M - dude's had a legit breakout and is on pace for 37 points
Some rando on a league minimum $0.8M
Let's rule out any big splashes in the UFA market. If they sign these players above to complete a league minimum roster of 12F, 6D, 2G, it puts them at $87.9M next year, and the cap is $83.5M.
Let's say you cut some costs here and there, like replacing Gustafsson and Sheary with league min players. You're still at $84.0M next year, and the cap is $83.5M.
I can't see the Capitals as contenders with this cap situation for next year. I could see some LTIR shenanigans in play for them, but even if they do that, it means a player like Backstrom or Oshie will be out, which means they'll have to ice inferior players. The easiest solution is to lose Dmitry Orlov and hope to moneypuck into a cheaper talent.
The moral of the story is to not ever have one player on D signed for next year.