Around the League 36-But Who's Counting...

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MadeUpName

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NYR and Carolina are the cream of the crop for the Metro. I don't think it is close. Shesterkin is #2 next to Vasilevskiy. Their offense is deep. Fox is great.
 
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AhosDatsyukian

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NYR and Carolina are the cream of the crop for the Metro. I don't think it is close. Shesterkin is #2 next to Vasilevskiy. Their offense is deep. Fox is great.
Maybe. Teams heavily reliant on goaltending are always susceptible to coming up well short of expectations. In addition Kreider's career year likely won't be repeated and that could be the difference between competing for 1st in Metro and competing for a wildcard spot.
 
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Svechhammer

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Maybe. Teams heavily reliant on goaltending are always susceptible to coming up well short of expectations. In addition Kreider's career year likely won't be repeated and that could be the difference between competing for 1st in Metro and competing for a wildcard spot.

They have a lot of players coming off career years. They very well could still be an elite team this year, but I'm skeptical of them until those players have proven they took a collective next step rather than just caught lightning in a bottle.
 

SlavinAway

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They have a lot of players coming off career years. They very well could still be an elite team this year, but I'm skeptical of them until those players have proven they took a collective next step rather than just caught lightning in a bottle.

This. They just squeaked by us in the playoffs while overperforming while we were very much doing the opposite. If I was to bet it would be on them regressing. I think Shesty is a good goalie but don't think he will finish the season significantly better than other high-end goalies including Andersen.
 

MinJaBen

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This. They just squeaked by us in the playoffs while overperforming while we were very much doing the opposite. If I was to bet it would be on them regressing. I think Shesty is a good goalie but don't think he will finish the season significantly better than other high-end goalies including Andersen.
Well, he did finish the season, unlike Andersen, so that is significantly better, right?
 
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Boom Boom Apathy

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Looking at the Rangers top 10 scorers and comparing PPGs vs. prior seasons.

Panarin: Not really career year as he had a better season his first in NY (32G, 95 points in 69 games)
Kreider: Certainly a career year
Zibanejad: PPG player last season but the prior 3 season's were 50p/56GP, 75P/57GP, 74P/82G. So his 81 isn't an anomaly and isn't better than 2 season's ago.
Fox: Career year with .95PPG, but he had .85PPG the season before so I don't think his performance was out of the norm.
Strome: Not a career year, in fact worse than his prior 2 seasons.
Trouba: Not a career year, but his best with NYR.
Goodrow: Career year, but just barely better (PPG) vs. his prior season in TB and the season prior in SJ.
LAF: Career year but disappointing 2nd season for a 1st OA.
Chytl: Not a career year and worse than his prior 2.
Miller: Not a career year as his prior season was better.

Looking at this list, the only one that really stands out as anomalous/career year is Kreider. The rest of the players had years that are either consistent with past performances or they are young and improving.

I think it IS fair to say that other than some of their young guys (Laf, Chytl, Kakko), nobody had a down year which isn't always the case.
 
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Yeah between Chytl, Laf, and Kakko, one of them is bound to take a step.

I don't see NYR as a regression candidate. They might not be a 110 point team next year in the same way that we might not be a 116 point team, but that's not really "regression" to me in the sense that most folks are saying. I think it's us and them at the top of the Metro for the next several years.
 

SlavinAway

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Well, he did finish the season, unlike Andersen, so that is significantly better, right?

Absolutely, for last season. I'm projecting forward to this year. Injuries can still happen but MCL isn't a likely re-injury compared to other knee injuries.
 
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MinJaBen

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Looking at the Rangers top 10 scorers and comparing PPGs vs. prior seasons.

Panarin: Not really career year as he had a better season his first in NY (32G, 95 points in 69 games)
Kreider: Certainly a career year
Zibanejad: PPG player last season but the prior 3 season's were 50p/56GP, 75P/57GP, 74P/82G. So his 81 isn't an anomaly and isn't better than 2 season's ago.
Fox: Career year with .95PPG, but he had .85PPG the season before so I don't think his performance was out of the norm.
Strome: Not a career year, in fact worse than his prior 2 seasons.
Trouba: Not a career year, but his best with NYR.
Goodrow: Career year, but just barely better (PPG) vs. his prior season in TB and the season prior in SJ.
LAF: Career year but disappointing 2nd season for a 1st OA.
Chytl: Not a career year and worse than his prior 2.
Miller: Not a career year as his prior season was better.

Looking at this list, the only one that really stands out as anomalous/career year is Kreider. The rest of the players had years that are either consistent with past performances or they are young and improving.

I think it IS fair to say that other than some of their young guys (Laf, Chytl, Kakko), nobody had a down year which isn't always the case.
What about Igor, arguably their most important player? His GSAA exploded last year compared to his previous performance. If that settles down to his norm (and, of course his "norm" is still hard to define given his sample size) that could be the difference in quite of few games.
 
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Boom Boom Apathy

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What about Igor, arguably their most important player? His GSAA exploded last year compared to his previous performance. If that settles down to his norm (and, of course his "norm" is still hard to define given his sample size) that could be the difference in quite of few games.

Definitely. I was only focused on skaters as I had posted in an earlier post a couple of days ago that the two keys, IMO, were the young guys taking a step and Igor not taking a huge step back, so I didn't mention him here.

EDIT: On a separate note, how was Anderson's GSAA last year vs. his historical performance? Is that data available on natural stat trick? Or where can I find it? Just curious if his performance was within normal bounds or not.
 

Nikishin Go Boom

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EDIT: On a separate note, how was Anderson's GSAA last year vs. his historical performance? Is that data available on natural stat trick? Or where can I find it? Just curious if his performance was within normal bounds or not.
according to hockey-reference

Andersen’s 22.1 GSAA was the best of his career. His 2 best prior seasons were 12.1 and 14.5 in 17-18 and 18-19, respectively.

It seems his HD save percentage was the main culprit. He had a .840 last season. His career average was around .780 before that with a best of .795 in 18-19.
 

MinJaBen

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EDIT: On a separate note, how was Anderson's GSAA last year vs. his historical performance? Is that data available on natural stat trick? Or where can I find it? Just curious if his performance was within normal bounds or not.

As @Gocanes0506 already said, his went up as well. Though whether or not that should be considered a blip or a function of changing teams to one with a different/better defensive posture is unknown. For Igor, there is not the same level of change to point to, although a changing in coaching and strategy may be all it took there.
 

Nikishin Go Boom

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As @Gocanes0506 already said, his went up as well. Though whether or not that should be considered a blip or a function of changing teams to one with a different/better defensive posture is unknown. For Igor, there is not the same level of change to point to, although a changing in coaching and strategy may be all it took there.
unfortunately with the lack of public data points, shots and chances created are the only measuring points for defenses. Toronto's defense looks amazing because their system is set up to drive offensive chances. There isnt a public metric that shows when the other team has the puck how good the defense is at creating lower grade chances with stick play, body positioning, etc. It very well could be a change in system, we could be better at the smallest of stick / positioning differences that actuates Freddie's game. maybe i just made all that up. who knows
 

Svechhammer

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NotOpie

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Looking at the Rangers top 10 scorers and comparing PPGs vs. prior seasons.

Panarin: Not really career year as he had a better season his first in NY (32G, 95 points in 69 games)
Kreider: Certainly a career year
Zibanejad: PPG player last season but the prior 3 season's were 50p/56GP, 75P/57GP, 74P/82G. So his 81 isn't an anomaly and isn't better than 2 season's ago.
Fox: Career year with .95PPG, but he had .85PPG the season before so I don't think his performance was out of the norm.
Strome: Not a career year, in fact worse than his prior 2 seasons.
Trouba: Not a career year, but his best with NYR.
Goodrow: Career year, but just barely better (PPG) vs. his prior season in TB and the season prior in SJ.
LAF: Career year but disappointing 2nd season for a 1st OA.
Chytl: Not a career year and worse than his prior 2.
Miller: Not a career year as his prior season was better.

Looking at this list, the only one that really stands out as anomalous/career year is Kreider. The rest of the players had years that are either consistent with past performances or they are young and improving.

I think it IS fair to say that other than some of their young guys (Laf, Chytl, Kakko), nobody had a down year which isn't always the case.
Yup, I agree with the implication here. I'd be very reluctant to be assured that NYR is going to regress. They've got viable scorers and a group of youngsters that are more likely to improve than take steps back. Personally, I think both Chytl and LAF are likely to have significantly better seasons. Plus, there's something in me that just thinks Trocheck will significantly outperform Strome....based on nothing but a hunch.
 

Svechhammer

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As @Gocanes0506 already said, his went up as well. Though whether or not that should be considered a blip or a function of changing teams to one with a different/better defensive posture is unknown. For Igor, there is not the same level of change to point to, although a changing in coaching and strategy may be all it took there.
Its also worth pointing out that over the last few years goalies tend to have inflated stats here vs elsewhere. Our system really does help out goalies in a meaningful way.
 

Discipline Daddy

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I also think the Rangers benefit from a pretty damn good defense. I hate Trouba more than a reasonable human should, but he is arguably their 4th best D. Fox is elite, K'Andre Miller I think is the real deal, and I like Ryan Lindgren a lot too. Zac Jones and Braden Schneider look pretty promising as well. Next year will be mighty difficult to re-sign everybody though, so this year is really their best shot at the cup while Lafreniere and K'Andre are on ELCs. I think their move to get Troch was really good for this year but questionable for the next several afterwards. But yeah for me they're still the biggest competition in the Metro.
 
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