It's certainly not impossible, but I can't imagine how even the Oilers could f*** things up so badly that McDavid walks. 365 days before his contract expires, Oilers management is going to ask him what his price is to stay. If he doesn't give them a number, they have no choice but to try to trade him for whatever they can get. The only way a deal doesn't get done is if McDavid uses his NMC to block all trades as an explicit f*** you to the team and the city on his way out, and that's a level of petty that I can't imagine coming from a guy like him.
Now, I can't imagine how you negotiate a trade for a player like him in the cap era. There's literally no modern precedent for a generational player getting traded in his prime. But I am eagerly awaiting the show.
The Oilers are doomed either way, really:
- No doubt, his price to stay is going to be astronomical. I don't see him (or Drai for that matter) taking team-friendly contracts. That'll really wreak havoc on an already beleaguered roster to say the least, and if anything, they've not been so team-friendly themselves.
- If he doesn't give them a number, they'll try to trade him, but what team will give 'em a fair trade? The Oilers would be working from a position of incredible weakness. Not only that, but can you really trust the current brain trust to make the right call? And do you think Katz won't meddle? I mean, he's the one who cleared "the trade is one for one," among many other things, and like Aquilini in Vancouver, I could see him brute forcing a particular choice, no matter the damage done afterward.
That's why I think he (and Drai) will walk. Either sign them at such a cost that you'll be fielding an even worse team (Parise/Suter-era Wild on steroids) or trade 'em for whatever the other team can cobble together for a lark (like what the Spurs got from Toronto for Kawhi - granted, the Spurs losing Kawhi led them to Wemby, but who knew at the time?)
Not only that, but I don't think McDavid even understands how vital he is to the very brand itself. If he were to leave the team regardless of circumstance, the Oilers brand will take a severe hit. You'll always have the diehard fans, but the casuals will flee en masse. Their franchise valuation will take a pretty big hit to say the least. Will that finally be what gets Katz to stop fooling around and properly clean house?