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Around the League - 2023/24

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What if I told you, that since Jan 1 Vancouver has the 4th highest xGF% and is 2% higher than the Avs?

Their analytic 'woes' are greatly exaggerated at this point. It was true in October and November... but they are actually well within the range in the last half the season. PDO wise in that stretch, the primary difference between the Avs and Vancouver is ~.1 better save percentage. Which isn't all that unreasonable with Demko being a damn good goalie and .917 being a pretty reasonable save percentage. Their PDO is in the same realm as Dallas, Toronto, Carolina and Winnipeg in that stretch.

I get being skeptical, but Vancouver is a good team. I'd say odds are high they will get out of the first round. I just wouldn't favor them against Vegas. Edmonton is a bit more questionable... mostly because I think Edmonton could fall apart defensively and in net, while Demko turning in a .920+ series wouldn't be at all shocking. That would probably be enough to turn the tide.
 
Balthazar said:
I'm actually fine with facing Jets and Stars.

Those are 2 teams that have been punching above their weight class IMO. Vegas and probably Edmonton are more dangerous.
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And fortunately, if the standings right now hold up, one of Vegas or Edmonton is going to be out after round one. No matter how that series ends it will knock one of our bigger rivals in the West out of the way.
 
McMetal said:
And fortunately, if the standings right now hold up, one of Vegas or Edmonton is going to be out after round one. No matter how that series ends it will knock one of our bigger rivals in the West out of the way.
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I'm fairly confident that's how it shakes out. Vancouver has a 7 point lead on Edmonton, though the Oilers do have 2 games in hand. I also can't see LA catching Vegas for the 3 seed. LA has shown its true colours this season, though the conspiracy theorist in me believes they intentionally tanked to avoid playing Edmonton for a 3rd straight year and would rather take their chances with one of Vancouver/Dallas.
 
Alex Jones said:
I think it's just a mental thing. I don't know how badly he was hurt after that fight, but it's possible he's never been dropped that hard before.

IMO Lucic is the best fighter in NHL history. He understands how to actually fight. I don't know what his background is but I'm very sure he was in boxing/kickboxing/mma at one point. He understands the value of throwing shorter straight shots (you never see him do the load up all the way from the hip move) and he often seems to find the other guys timing.

MacDermid is like almost every other hockey fighter. You're on ice so you can't really set your feet to drive power from your legs so guys try to generate power by winding way up and throwing a ton of momentum into shots. This is a mistake it creates a very predictable motion that is easy to time, there's a reason so many hockey fights just turn into a rhymical game of "you swing, then I swing back".

Lucic understands that MacDermid likes to throw huge shots with all of his momentum. The only thing that you have to do to neutralize this is land a good shot while the other guy is coming forward....he's doing all of the work for you. Lucic knows this and loves to double up his rights in case the other guy thinks it's "his turn" to throw. That's what happened there it wasn't really even a hard punch that dropped Dermy.

I think that MacDermid got scared from that and now has some fear to throw his bomb. When there's a possibility of get countered I see some hesitation to commit.
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I didn't think Dermy looked gunshy personally. He went after Rempe and landed some good shots that bloodied up his mouth.

Rempe just has a very long reach, which makes him tough to get close to. Dermy’s used to being the guy with the reach advantage. He can hit most guys without getting hit himself much. He has the reach on pretty much everyone in the NHL but Rempe, so it was probably a different challenge for him.

Agree about Lucic though. I don’t think he’s the best fighter, he’s lost his share, and hid behind the linesman from Orr after getting beat, but he's still scary because of his size and boxing training. As you say, his timing is what sets him apart from most hockey fighters.

That’s how he caught Dermy. Kurtis was too reckless and left himself open, and Lucic doubled up on a couple straight rights to throw off the timing, and caught Dermy right on the button, beating him to the punch as Dermy was throwing his looping haymakers.
 
henchman21 said:
What if I told you, that since Jan 1 Vancouver has the 4th highest xGF% and is 2% higher than the Avs?

Their analytic 'woes' are greatly exaggerated at this point. It was true in October and November... but they are actually well within the range in the last half the season. PDO wise in that stretch, the primary difference between the Avs and Vancouver is ~.1 better save percentage. Which isn't all that unreasonable with Demko being a damn good goalie and .917 being a pretty reasonable save percentage. Their PDO is in the same realm as Dallas, Toronto, Carolina and Winnipeg in that stretch.

I get being skeptical, but Vancouver is a good team. I'd say odds are high they will get out of the first round. I just wouldn't favor them against Vegas. Edmonton is a bit more questionable... mostly because I think Edmonton could fall apart defensively and in net, while Demko turning in a .920+ series wouldn't be at all shocking. That would probably be enough to turn the tide.
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I'd tell you I don't know what "xGF%" is and that I stopped reading.

Let the nerds without girlfriends (see I brought the gf back) wave their spreadsheets about while our Big Boy 4th line launches Quinneas Hughes into the nosebleeds.
 
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SirLoinOfCloth said:
We've had their number all year. I'm not too concerned by them. They struggle with our speed. 6-3, 5-4 (OT), and 5-1.
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And if Dallas still struggles with the Avs speed, they could be in trouble, because they've really dialed back the physicality the last few years.

Hits

2020-21 - 8th
2021-22 - 16th
2022-23 - 26th
2023-24 - 31st
 
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McMetal said:
And fortunately, if the standings right now hold up, one of Vegas or Edmonton is going to be out after round one. No matter how that series ends it will knock one of our bigger rivals in the West out of the way.
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You consider Edmonton a rival?
 
Spirits said:
You consider Edmonton a rival?
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In that they're one of our most serious threats in the West, yes. I think Dallas, Edmonton, and Vegas are the three teams that really stand between us and the Finals. Vancouver isn't ready yet, LA sucks, and Nashville and Winnipeg are good but very beatable.

If somebody is going to knock us out, I think it will be one of those three. Having two of them face each other in round one is a good outcome for us.
 
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Spirits said:
:laugh:

I'd say Dallas, Vegas, Nashville and Winnipeg are all more dangerous. I don't consider Edmonton a serious team, YMMV.
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Of all the teams in the playoff picture in the West, they're the most capable of throwing out overwhelming offense in a short series. I think they're flawed, certainly, but if they get hot they can ventilate our goalies. I think the Avs could certainly go toe to toe with them if the series turns into a track meet, but it's a danger, especially since our offense seems to have gone pretty cold recently.

Nashville and Winnipeg are certainly dangerous. Nashville in particular is getting hot at the right time and I'm glad we won't be facing them in round one with the way things are clicking for them, but they aren't as deep as us on the ice IMO. Winnipeg is a bad stylistic match for us because they're capable of playing really suffocating defense, but if they can't shut down our offense they won't be able to keep up their end.

While neither should be taken lightly, I think they're going to get exposed over the course of a series barring puck luck.
 
McMetal said:
Of all the teams in the playoff picture in the West, they're the most capable of throwing out overwhelming offense in a short series. I think they're flawed, certainly, but if they get hot they can ventilate our goalies. I think the Avs could certainly go toe to toe with them if the series turns into a track meet, but it's a danger, especially since our offense seems to have gone pretty cold recently.

Nashville and Winnipeg are certainly dangerous. Nashville in particular is getting hot at the right time and I'm glad we won't be facing them in round one with the way things are clicking for them, but they aren't as deep as us on the ice IMO. Winnipeg is a bad stylistic match for us because they're capable of playing really suffocating defense, but if they can't shut down our offense they won't be able to keep up their end.

While neither should be taken lightly, I think they're going to get exposed over the course of a series barring puck luck.
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I look at Edmonton and see a team that won't do what it takes to win in the playoffs. McDavid and Drai refuse to play defense and the rest of the team can see that. In 2022 playoffs Leon absolutely skated like he was injured on defense vs us and then suddenly was fine and could move when they had the puck. That team doesn't have the heart to win in the playoffs imo. McDavid included.
 
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Vancouver will live and die with Demko’s performance. Whether or not he can live up to his pre-injury performance when he comes back is a big question. If he comes back and plays stellar, they’re a tough out (though a bit overrated). If he comes back and struggles, solid chance Nashville comes through with the big upset.
 
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GeoRox89 said:
Vancouver will live and die with Demko’s performance. Whether or not he can live up to his pre-injury performance when he comes back is a big question. If he comes back and plays stellar, they’re a tough out (though a bit overrated). If he comes back and struggles, solid chance Nashville comes through with the big upset.
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IDK why, but this year feels like 2003 or 2005 where there were a bunch of "upsets" and we'll end up with something like Nashville vs. Toronto in the SCF.
 
Bill Peckerskull said:
Nashville vs. Toronto in the SCF.
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Is there a more fragile player than Ekblad in the NHL? The dude is always hurt and now he’s out rest of the regular season
 
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