Around the League - 2022-23 Season Edition

[ToneDog]

The Islanders have a history of slightly outperforming their underlying metrics, almost entirely because of their goaltending, but not nearly to this extent. Over their Trotz era, they outperformed their underlying metrics by just over 2 percentage points. This season, they are outperforming by over 9 percentage points. The Islanders have a good goaltending tandem, but the best goaltending a team got last season was +27 GSAx. The Islander's goalies are currently on pace for +56 GSAx. They missed the playoffs pretty convincingly last year and didn't really make any improvements.

They missed the playoffs last year because they opened up on the road for a month and had a COVID outbreak when they returned home and got no relief from the league. With their goaltending I would expect them to return to form and make the playoffs. I hear Romanov is putting fear in wingers going down his win. Dobson is also improving. Pullock, Pelech and Mayfield give them a solid D core.

Be great to see a Leafs/Isles Conference final to see which GM built a better team.

 

[andora]

They missed the playoffs last year because they opened up on the road for a month and had a COVID outbreak when they returned home and got no relief from the league. With their goaltending I would expect them to return to form and make the playoffs. I hear Romanov is putting fear in wingers going down his win. Dobson is also improving. Pullock, Pelech and Mayfield give them a solid D core.

Be great to see a Leafs/Isles Conference final to see which GM built a better team.

But context

 

[Zybalto]

They missed the playoffs last year because they opened up on the road for a month and had a COVID outbreak when they returned home and got no relief from the league. With their goaltending I would expect them to return to form and make the playoffs. I hear Romanov is putting fear in wingers going down his win. Dobson is also improving. Pullock, Pelech and Mayfield give them a solid D core.

Be great to see a Leafs/Isles Conference final to see which GM built a better team.

That would indeed be fun.

Just want to note that so far in the 2020s (since January 1st, 2020), the Isles record is:

90-71-24

....all while having the best team save% in hockey.

If the Isles have the same kind of goaltending injuries the Leafs have had, I don't think they have the team to carry them in quite the same way. It certainly helps to have that bullet in your arsenal in the playoffs though (as we have seen).

 

[ToneDog]

That would indeed be fun.

Just want to note that so far in the 2020s (since January 1st, 2020), the Isles record is:

90-71-24

....all while having the best team save% in hockey.

If the Isles have the same kind of goaltending injuries the Leafs have had, I don't think they have the team to carry them in quite the same way. It certainly helps to have that bullet in your arsenal in the playoffs though (as we have seen).

Agreed. They spend more on goaltending than we do while we are heavily invested in our top 4 forwards. They don't have the drop off up front that we do and as well as our 4th line has played, I doubt they can do it in the playoffs against the Isles 4th line IMO.

I would take the Isles in a 7 game series, because they are built for the playoffs and have been there but if we can win a couple of series and get to the CF, perhaps our top 4 guys will have figured it out and be the difference makers we expect/hope them to be.

Isles are here Monday. NJ, Buffalo and the Isles should be good tests. Buffalo because we seem to play poorly against them while they play well against us.

 

[Dekes For Days]

They missed the playoffs last year because they opened up on the road for a month and had a COVID outbreak when they returned home and got no relief from the league.

No, they missed the playoffs last year because they weren't good enough. They played the same number of home and road games as everybody else, and overall, they were one of the least injured teams last year. They played at a 90 point pace from January 1st to the end of the season, for the record.

I hear Romanov is putting fear in wingers going down his win.

Is that before or after they blow by him for a scoring chance? 13th overall pick. Yeesh.

Be great to see a Leafs/Isles Conference final

Yeah, that would be great. That would mean that we not only got to the Conference final, but that we had an easier than average opponent to get to the Cup final.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Yeah after watching Pasta, I was thinking how do we compete with a team that has 2 players (Pasta and Marchand) who put up better numbers than our $11+m players but are earning less than Nylander ?

Robertson, Ranta, Drai, Kutch, Thompson, Bratt, Horvat, Hinz, Suzuki !!, Koneckny!! Terry, Pavelski, Pettersson !!! all outperforming their contracts.

Considering how few Cups there are in that list, I suppose we compete just fine?

They missed the playoffs last year because they opened up on the road for a month and had a COVID outbreak when they returned home and got no relief from the league. With their goaltending I would expect them to return to form and make the playoffs. I hear Romanov is putting fear in wingers going down his win. Dobson is also improving. Pullock, Pelech and Mayfield give them a solid D core.

Be great to see a Leafs/Isles Conference final to see which GM built a better team.

Conversely, for once they had to perform over a full stretch where cream rises and obvious flaws don't sustain?

 

[ToneDog]

Considering how few Cups there are in that list, I suppose we compete just fine?



Conversely, for once they had to perform over a full stretch where cream rises and obvious flaws don't sustain?

Possible but given the Isles play this year with virtually the same team, I give them the benefit of the doubt. They dug themselves a big hole and could not dig themselves out of it. Time will tell if they fall of a cliff like they did last year.

 

[andora]

Possible but given the Isles play this year with virtually the same team, I give them the benefit of the doubt. They dug themselves a big hole and could not dig themselves out of it. Time will tell if they fall of a cliff like they did last year.

They will be fine

One of the biggest differences is with dobson's emergence. He has become such a focal point pelech and puloch gwt to fly under the radar a bit..dont have to worry about offense as much

Then a third pairing that plays well.. mayfield is playing well

 

[Gabriel426]

Agreed. They spend more on goaltending than we do while we are heavily invested in our top 4 forwards. They don't have the drop off up front that we do and as well as our 4th line has played, I doubt they can do it in the playoffs against the Isles 4th line IMO.

I would take the Isles in a 7 game series, because they are built for the playoffs and have been there but if we can win a couple of series and get to the CF, perhaps our top 4 guys will have figured it out and be the difference makers we expect/hope them to be.

Isles are here Monday. NJ, Buffalo and the Isles should be good tests. Buffalo because we seem to play poorly against them while they play well against us.

As much as I want and hope our top guys can lead the charges esp after winning the first round of the playoffs. I think once they win the first round, they will be really flat in the second round bc they think they had done it.
Really hope I am wrong.

 

[Fogelhund]

Title is partially misleading.. .yes it talks about the two OHL owners, but also lists and discusses all the others believed to be bidding on the Senators.

""

 

[stickty111]

The only team I could see making noise and moving up is Pittsburgh. I have a feeling if they keep struggling they will fire Sullivan and bring in someone fresh and go on a run.



I don't know, it seems that way but assuming you're basing this on the underlying numbers, the Islanders outperformed their mediocre analytics for multiple seasons under Trotz. It's just the way they play They're also very strong in net with Sorokin and Varlamov as one of league's best tandems (if not best) which will carry them a long way.

I know we have likely gotten on track now, but if Sullivan did become available, he's someone I would replace for Keefe even more so than Trotz. If we start sputtering again than I would think about it a lot.

 

[Menzinger]

The state of the Sabres and Sens is a good case in how early and preseason moves can't always predict what happens when games are actually played.

The Sens in particular, so many praised moves and they're heading right to yet another bottom 10 finish

 

[Leaf Rocket]

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Remember when the Sabres were 7-3-0? I expected them to come back down to earth, but not like this. What a disaster. Can't let them snap the streak on Saturday

 

[HolyCrap]

Remember when the Sabres were 7-3-0? I expected them to come back down to earth, but not like this. What a disaster. Can't let them snap the streak on Saturday

Yup. They do this every year. Not saying they won’t progress. But having their fans come on to our forum and explain this year is different was cute.

 

[willmma]

View attachment 608822

Traitor

Johnny Jaudreaus

 

[rdogg]

I like how the Oilers reverse retro Jerseys are only slightly less ugly than their usual orange colors.

That's what I call progress.

 

[leafsfan5]

Yup. They do this every year. Not saying they won’t progress. But having their fans come on to our forum and explain this year is different was cute.

I honestly feel for their fans, that team is down tremendously

 

[HolyCrap]

I honestly feel for their fans, that team is down tremendously

I hear ya. I’d like to see some success in Buffalo. Be a good rival that’s close by. They do have dedicated fans.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I honestly feel for their fans, that team is down tremendously

Yeah this could be their 12th straight season without making the playoffs. That's absolutely brutal, no fanbase deserves that. Well maybe Boston

 

[notDatsyuk]

That would indeed be fun.

Just want to note that so far in the 2020s (since January 1st, 2020), the Isles record is:

90-71-24

....all while having the best team save% in hockey.

If the Isles have the same kind of goaltending injuries the Leafs have had, I don't think they have the team to carry them in quite the same way. It certainly helps to have that bullet in your arsenal in the playoffs though (as we have seen).

I'm not sure why Jan 1, 2020.

Since Tavares switched teams they are 163-108-34 for a .590%, good for 13th overall.

If you omit the one season where the road trip, covid, and injuries caused them to miss the playoffs, their record is 123-76-24, for a .619%.

More important is this year, where they are 11-6-0 for .647%.

But I think the main thing is that they are built for the playoffs more than the regular season.

 

[TMLeafer]

LA vs Edmonton, all goals scored by former Leafs.

 

[Legion34]

I'm not sure why Jan 1, 2020.

Since Tavares switched teams they are 163-108-34 for a .590%, good for 13th overall.

If you omit the one season where the road trip, covid, and injuries caused them to miss the playoffs, their record is 123-76-24, for a .619%.

More important is this year, where they are 11-6-0 for .647%.

But I think the main thing is that they are built for the playoffs more than the regular season.

Why would you omit the year they did t make the playoffs?

Are you also omitting the year where they lost like 15 in a row and were out of the playoffs right before the pause?

Seems kinda cherry picking

 

[Zybalto]

I'm not sure why Jan 1, 2020.

Since Tavares switched teams they are 163-108-34 for a .590%, good for 13th overall.

If you omit the one season where the road trip, covid, and injuries caused them to miss the playoffs, their record is 123-76-24, for a .619%.

More important is this year, where they are 11-6-0 for .647%.

But I think the main thing is that they are built for the playoffs more than the regular season.

Just showing their record for the current decade but even going farther back just shows how unpredictable and unstable their team has been in recent years. Are they only built for the playoffs because of their goaltending?

Taking away their top-of-the-league goaltending and their numbers look pretty pedestrian TBH. They do do a decent job of keeping teams to the outside and capitalizing on their chances but it all seems like a hope and a prayer that their goalies will always make the big save. Throw a Jack Campbell type in that net and I dont think they get outta any first rounds (let alone even make the playoffs).


Worst team xGA so far this season:

1. Ducks
2. Habs
3. Flyers
4. Coyotes
5. Isles

Many teams are starting to fall more in line with their underlying numbers as the season wears on. The Isles are actually the big outlier that's left. I suppose they could do it even longer but the numbers scream they are a mediocre team getting carried at a record pace right now by their superb goaltending. If they were to continue this pace, they will insanely shatter the record for goaltending performance in a season.

 

[The Podium]

Just showing their record for the current decade but even going farther back just shows how unpredictable and unstable their team has been in recent years. Are they only built for the playoffs because of their goaltending?

Taking away their top-of-the-league goaltending and their numbers look pretty pedestrian TBH. They do do a decent job of keeping teams to the outside and capitalizing on their chances but it all seems like a hope and a prayer that their goalies will always make the big save. Throw a Jack Campbell type in that net and I dont think they get outta any first rounds (let alone even make the playoffs).


Worst team xGA so far this season:

1. Ducks
2. Habs
3. Flyers
4. Coyotes
5. Isles

Many teams are starting to fall more in line with their underlying numbers as the season wears on. The Isles are actually the big outlier that's left. I suppose they could do it even longer but the numbers scream they are a mediocre team getting carried at a record pace right now by their superb goaltending. If they were to continue this pace, they will insanely shatter the record for goaltending performance in a season.

While I agree that the Isles are a lot worse than their record, elite goaltending usually results in teams outperforming their underlying numbers.