Around the League - 2022-23 Season Edition

[Gary Nylund]

Many teams are starting to fall more in line with their underlying numbers as the season wears on. The Isles are actually the big outlier that's left. I suppose they could do it even longer but the numbers scream they are a mediocre team getting carried at a record pace right now by their superb goaltending. If they were to continue this pace, they will insanely shatter the record for goaltending performance in a season.

I've never understood this line of thinking. IMO, if you're a good team, then you're a good team. What does it matter if your best players are forwards, goaltenders, or Dmen? Some teams that you'd call "mediocre" go on deep playoff runs and even win cups every now and then, do you think their fans value the cups less because their best player was a goalie?

 

[Dekes For Days]

View attachment 608822

Lmao. That's hilarious.

While I agree that the Isles are a lot worse than their record, elite goaltending usually results in teams outperforming their underlying numbers.

It does, but not to this ridiculous extent.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Why would you omit the year they did t make the playoffs?

Are you also omitting the year where they lost like 15 in a row and were out of the playoffs right before the pause?

Seems kinda cherry picking

I was responding to a post that picked a particular (odd) date. I listed three more reasonable date ranges, only one of which omitted their year of extreme circumstances.

The main one included all of the last 4+ seasons. Which do you think I left out?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Just showing their record for the current decade but even going farther back just shows how unpredictable and unstable their team has been in recent years. Are they only built for the playoffs because of their goaltending?

Taking away their top-of-the-league goaltending and their numbers look pretty pedestrian TBH. They do do a decent job of keeping teams to the outside and capitalizing on their chances but it all seems like a hope and a prayer that their goalies will always make the big save. Throw a Jack Campbell type in that net and I dont think they get outta any first rounds (let alone even make the playoffs).


Worst team xGA so far this season:

1. Ducks
2. Habs
3. Flyers
4. Coyotes
5. Isles

Many teams are starting to fall more in line with their underlying numbers as the season wears on. The Isles are actually the big outlier that's left. I suppose they could do it even longer but the numbers scream they are a mediocre team getting carried at a record pace right now by their superb goaltending. If they were to continue this pace, they will insanely shatter the record for goaltending performance in a season.

I thought going further back (4+ seasons) shows how consistent they have been.

Average regular season (except for the one 'annus horribilus'), making the playoffs, and doing well in them.

Always the question about goaltending: is it great despite the team in front, or because of it? I think they play good team defence, which to an extent makes the goalies look good.

Why would they have such a bad xGA if their goalies are so great?

By the way, they have the fifth worst xGA, but currently the fifth best GA.

"insanely shatter the record for goaltending performance in a season"? Like they did four years ago? In the last four seasons they have been first, ninth, third, and seventh in GA.

I think the surprise this year is their offence. Four previous years they were 22nd, 22nd, 21st, and 23rd. So far this year they are 12th.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I thought going further back (4+ seasons) shows how consistent they have been.

Why stop there? 0.581 since 2014-2015! So consistent! Way more relevant than the fact that they missed the playoffs in the most recent season, and are unsustainably outperforming their underlying metrics currently.

Always the question about goaltending: is it great despite the team in front, or because of it? I think they play good team defence

This year, definitely despite, because they're not playing good team defense.

Why would they have such a bad xGA if their goalies are so great?

A team's xGA has nothing to do with their goalies.

"insanely shatter the record for goaltending performance in a season"? Like they did four years ago?

No. Like has never come close to being done before in recorded history. For context, they're on pace for +56 GSAx. The top goaltending team last year was +27.

 

[andora]

Buckle up here we go

 

[notDatsyuk]

Why stop there? 0.581 since 2014-2015! So consistent! Way more relevant than the fact that they missed the playoffs in the most recent season, and are unsustainably outperforming their underlying metrics currently.

This year, definitely despite, because they're not playing good team defense.

A team's xGA has nothing to do with their goalies.

No. Like has never come close to being done before in recorded history. For context, they're on pace for +56 GSAx. The top goaltending team last year was +27.

Sure, picking a reasonable timeframe and in one example omitting an aberration makes no sense to you.

And I never realized that a goalie had nothing to do with goals allowed!

Anyway, I was having an intelligent conversation with another poster, so goodbye.

 

[Nineteen67]

Good schedule tonight. I anticipate lots of flipping around channels and streams

 

[Zybalto]

I've never understood this line of thinking. IMO, if you're a good team, then you're a good team. What does it matter if your best players are forwards, goaltenders, or Dmen? Some teams that you'd call "mediocre" go on deep playoff runs and even win cups every now and then, do you think their fans value the cups less because their best player was a goalie?

I'm fine with all of that but these type of teams really don't win cups, at least I can't think of a team that has won one. They go on Cinderella runs once in a while though. I can't think of a mediocre team that has won the cup, at least as mediocre as the Isles.

It's what makes the Leafs closer to a cup than the Isles. The Leafs need a big game goalie and we have two guys competing for that spot this year. A sub .900 in loser goes home games isn't gonna cut it anymore so hopefully these guys won't be letting in short side softies of 5 hole gimmies.

The Isles need to get better everywhere else. They failed to make the playoffs last season with the third best team save %. That took a special kind of suck to do. It's great Sorokin/Varly are the best duo in hockey right now but those guys get hurt (like us) and whats going to happen?

I think they are trying to push offense more now but they have literally become a run and gun team this year and are playing with fire. Gonna be fun to watch though. Hey. I hope they keep it up. I'm down for an Isles/Leafs series.

 

[Gabriel426]

The state of the Sabres and Sens is a good case in how early and preseason moves can't always predict what happens when games are actually played.

The Sens in particular, so many praised moves and they're heading right to yet another bottom 10 finish

I think the Sens stuff are more to do with promoting to sell and something to get fans back to the stands. Not sure about this season but over the past few seasons, the 200level for Sens game are first come first serve. I never heard of anything like that unless it is the Rugby 7s.

 

[Gabriel426]

Just showing their record for the current decade but even going farther back just shows how unpredictable and unstable their team has been in recent years. Are they only built for the playoffs because of their goaltending?

Taking away their top-of-the-league goaltending and their numbers look pretty pedestrian TBH. They do do a decent job of keeping teams to the outside and capitalizing on their chances but it all seems like a hope and a prayer that their goalies will always make the big save. Throw a Jack Campbell type in that net and I dont think they get outta any first rounds (let alone even make the playoffs).


Worst team xGA so far this season:

1. Ducks
2. Habs
3. Flyers
4. Coyotes
5. Isles

Many teams are starting to fall more in line with their underlying numbers as the season wears on. The Isles are actually the big outlier that's left. I suppose they could do it even longer but the numbers scream they are a mediocre team getting carried at a record pace right now by their superb goaltending. If they were to continue this pace, they will insanely shatter the record for goaltending performance in a season.

To some extend I agree with you but goalies are also part of the team. Roy, Hasek and Brodeur all made the Habs, Sabres and Devils into contending teams. Maybe the Islanders goalies are on par with them for this season. It doesn't take away Islanders being a good team bc their goalie is the second coming of Hasek.

 

[Stephen]

Random thought but I wonder how long it will be before Travis Dermott becomes an Edmonton Oilers. Ex-Leaf, doesn’t defend especially well and a junior teammate of Connor McDavid’s in Erie.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

LA vs Edmonton, all goals scored by former Leafs.

They are now all targets for Edmonton Oilers.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I've never understood this line of thinking. IMO, if you're a good team, then you're a good team. What does it matter if your best players are forwards, goaltenders, or Dmen? Some teams that you'd call "mediocre" go on deep playoff runs and even win cups every now and then, do you think their fans value the cups less because their best player was a goalie?

It's just easier for a collection of great skaters to achieve a good record with poor goaltending than for a great goalie to have a great record while carrying a weak roster. There are exceptions of course, but relying on one player is a recipe for disaster

 

[Zybalto]

To some extend I agree with you but goalies are also part of the team. Roy, Hasek and Brodeur all made the Habs, Sabres and Devils into contending teams. Maybe the Islanders goalies are on par with them for this season. It doesn't take away Islanders being a good team bc their goalie is the second coming of Hasek.

Roy and Brodeur actually had good teams out front though and the Sabres were a merely decent team with a God goalie in his prime.

Who won cups?

I get what yall are saying here, I'm just separating goalie from skaters as I'm want to do.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm fine with all of that but these type of teams really don't win cups, at least I can't think of a team that has won one. They go on Cinderella runs once in a while though. I can't think of a mediocre team that has won the cup, at least as mediocre as the Isles.

Mediocre teams don't win cups, agreed. You're missing the point though - teams that go deep that would be mediocre if not for their goalie are not mediocre.

Teams like that don't win the cup often, but it does happen. Patrick Roy led MTL to the cup and that's a good example of my point. Yes without Roy they would have been mediocre but they had him, that's the whole point and with him, they were good enough to win the cup.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's just easier for a collection of great skaters to achieve a good record with poor goaltending than for a great goalie to have a great record while carrying a weak roster. There are exceptions of course, but relying on one player is a recipe for disaster

Whether that's true or not, doesn't change the fact that when evaluating teams, the goaltending is a big part of the equation.

Roy and Brodeur actually had good teams out front though and the Sabres were a merely decent team with a God goalie in his prime.

Who won cups?

I get what yall are saying here, I'm just separating goalie from skaters as I'm want to do.

Go ahead and do that if you like. But if were comparing one team to another, doing so is a big mistake.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sure, picking a reasonable timeframe and in one example omitting an aberration makes no sense to you.

I'm not sure what 4+ years ago has to do with what they are now, and excluding all of the most recent data because it's bad obviously doesn't make it any more accurate.

And I never realized that a goalie had nothing to do with goals allowed!

Of course a goalie has something to do with goals allowed. That's different from the xGA stat you cited, which is the defensive results of the skaters. That is not affected by the performance of their goalies. It helps us see how unsustainably the Islanders are being carried by their goaltending at the moment.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Whether that's true or not, doesn't change the fact that when evaluating teams, the goaltending is a big part of the equation.


Go ahead and do that if you like. But if were comparing one team to another, doing so is a big mistake.

I think part of it is just not liking the Isles.

If you can separate the goalie from the 'team' you can excuse any success by saying 'good goalie'.

A team that got to the conference finals and within a goal or two of beating the eventual champions two years in a row wasn't just a 'good goalie' behind a bad team. Mediocre, sure, but not the terrible some people want to believe.

 

[Dekes For Days]

A team that got to the conference finals and within a goal or two of beating the eventual champions two years in a row wasn't just a 'good goalie' behind a bad team. Mediocre, sure, but not the terrible some people want to believe.

If your argument is that from August 1st, 2020 to June 25th, 2021, they were a decent team with very good goaltending, there's at least an argument to be made.
Unfortunately, after that point, they haven't been very good.

 

[andora]

I can smell playoff success coming into the discussion soon

 

[Gabriel426]

Roy and Brodeur actually had good teams out front though and the Sabres were a merely decent team with a God goalie in his prime.

Who won cups?

I get what yall are saying here, I'm just separating goalie from skaters as I'm want to do.

Roy won with the Habs with Dipiento being the MVP. As much as I wanted the Habs to beat the Kings that year due to Fraser making that stupid call, Kings was the better team.

Anyhow. I just think that a good team is a good team even if one of their players is carrying them.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think part of it is just not liking the Isles.

If you can separate the goalie from the 'team' you can excuse any success by saying 'good goalie'.

A team that got to the conference finals and within a goal or two of beating the eventual champions two years in a row wasn't just a 'good goalie' behind a bad team. Mediocre, sure, but not the terrible some people want to believe.

That’s the thing, does it matters what Islanders records are if Leafs actually won a Cup or made it past the first round in the past 6 years?

That’s what I don’t get some here that constantly needs to discredit or belittle other teams or players to make our team and players look good.

 

[Menzinger]

I think the Sens stuff are more to do with promoting to sell and something to get fans back to the stands. Not sure about this season but over the past few seasons, the 200level for Sens game are first come first serve. I never heard of anything like that unless it is the Rugby 7s.

Reads to me like the front office trying to make a case to keep their jobs to the inevitable new ownership group.

Doesnt seemed to have likely worked

 

[Gabriel426]

Reads to me like the front office trying to make a case to keep their jobs to the inevitable new ownership group.

Doesnt seemed to have likely worked

It did worked bc they are putting up for sale and have Deadpool showing interests