Rangers know how to roll dice- Richter, King and now this guy. Hard to believe.
Seems like a good idea is to bet on guys who are the best of their age group.
WJC starters are always good bets, especially for Europeans. If not that (sometimes there are cases of two high end goalies in the same year, although rare), then a guy who plays in a pro league at that age is also a good bet (like Sorokin). Go back and see every good European-league goalie, and most, if not all, of them were WJC starters, and usually really good ones.
Don't draft guys with bad save percentages. Seems obvious, yet it happens more than you think. .895-.900 (or within a few points of that) seems to be a good cut off for the CHL. It is higher for the other leagues, and it also depends on the quality of the team.
Starters are preferred, but if you are drafting a backup or a tandem starter, then make sure that their save percentage is special and make sure they are splitting the net with an elite goalie for the league (bonus points if they are also a high end NHL prospect).
Drafting smaller goalies are fine, but it seems like the general rule is that a goalie drops ~15-20 spots for every inch they fall below 6'2" based on where they would go if they were 6'2", assuming they have elite numbers in the first place. Small goalies have a tough time making it, but you shouldn't ignore them if they have elite numbers (Hugo Havelid/Sergei Ivanov). Juuse Saros was 5'10". If he was 6'2", he would probably go somewhere in the mid-late 1st in that draft instead of the 4th round. It doesn't work as well the other way, although a couple of extra inches may help you climb the rankings by a little bit.
Lesser leagues are also fine, depending on how "lesser" you get, as long as they completely dominate. Guys heading the NCAA route should still go to top tier leagues so they are used to playing against the best shooters they can find. It would also help if they played for somewhat strong programs, but there are benefits both ways. If they are going to a weaker program, make sure they are not a fringy prospect. If a fringy prospect is going to a weak program, they are probably not as good as they are made out to be.
OA goalies are typically not a good idea unless they really stand out vs. their peers and they had something holding them back in their draft year (injury, little playing time, weak league, etc.). Nick Malik is not perfect and still needs refinement, but I think having plus (or plus-plus) athleticism with solid size and being one of the top goalies in the Liiga as a D+2 is something that should earn him a lot more attention than he has received, especially in a weak draft. Unranked in CSS rankings. No mention of him among top goalie prospects this year even though he may end up being the best goalie to come out of this draft.
If your scouts want you to draft a guy who doesn't fit in those parameters very well, or at all, then those are the guys who should be seen as late round flyers... And they better be prepared to really pound the table for that guy and be ready to work with them to make them true steals.
www.tsn.ca
