Around the League 2018-2019 Part 3

[Raccoon Jesus]

Yes, because rarely do the players who have taken that kind of money provide the performance which should associated with those contracts. You are literally talking about Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin.

Outside of last season, was it worth it for Chicago to sign Toews? It still wasn't worth it, because they missed the playoffs.

People see the dollar amounts I quote and get riled up because it matches the numbers for Kopitar and Doughty, but try to move from the specific case used as an example to the general idea.

It's not the precise number that matters, it is what over payment and contracts with excessive term do in general to a franchise.

You can argue not even Malkin and Crosby were worth it given how much time they missed with injuries during their massive contracts.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I will concede this point, too many players in the NHL are classified as superstars. One or two years of outstanding performance over an entire career is NOT what makes a player a superstar.

Fair, but you're getting hung up on the semantics. None of those contracts we've been discussing are 'overpayments' relative to abilities. You can maybe argue up to a million off maybe if you really hate Kopitar. The point is guys like Hayes shouldn't be within a million or two of the top players.

 

[KINGS17]

You can argue not even Malkin and Crosby were worth it given how much time they missed with injuries during their massive contracts.

You could, but I wouldn't given their ages when those deals were signed, and they are actually superstars.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

You could, but I wouldn't given their ages when those deals were signed, and they are actually superstars.

You're willing to commit 12+ percent of your cap to a player missing an average of half a season during that stretch, but Kopitar makes too much?

 

[KINGS17]

Fair, but you're getting hung up on the semantics. None of those contracts we've been discussing are 'overpayments' relative to abilities. You can maybe argue up to a million off maybe if you really hate Kopitar. The point is guys like Hayes shouldn't be within a million or two of the top players.

The main problem with Kopitar's deal is the term, and no I don't think he is even a $9M a year player at this stage of his career. Would you pay $9M a season for him going forward, given the current state of the roster?

 

[KINGS17]

You're willing to commit 12+ percent of your cap to a player missing an average of half a season during that stretch, but Kopitar makes too much?

Crosby is a superstar, and he has balls every bit as big as those of Justin Williams. This is evident by his coming back from serious concussions and winning Stanley Cups in back-to-back seasons. Very special players get very special contracts. Kopitar is very good some seasons.

 

[BigKing]

You could say that you are not likely to win a cup if your top payed players are not playing well. That makes sense.

You could also say that only certain players deserve big contracts. That also makes sense.

What you can not say is that teams with players making more than 12.2 CH% rarely win the cup. Because that is factually incorrect.

That's acceptable.

How many have won when they have two at that level? Maybe Pittsburgh during the back-to-back run?

The Kings biggest problem compared to the two other teams of the era is that they didn't pull one off during an ELC for 11 or 8. Chicago and Pitt both snuck one in there during the last year of an ELC for Toews and Malkin.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The main problem with Kopitar's deal is the term, and no I don't think he is even a $9M a year player at this stage of his career. Would you pay $9M a season for him going forward, given the current state of the roster?

Yes, because contracts shouldn't be relative to team situation, and cap space doesn't matter right now anyway.

Crosby is a superstar, and he has balls every bit as big as those of Justin Williams. This is evident by his coming back from serious concussions and winning Stanley Cups in back-to-back seasons. Very special players get very special contracts. Kopitar is very good some seasons.

No doubt. I was actually referencing Malkin, FWIW, who when healthy AND motivated, is the best player in the world. The problem is over that time period that was so rare. If Kopitar had been making the same percentage during that time none of us would have blinked due to his durability, consistency, and winning.

 

[KINGS17]

Yes, because contracts shouldn't be relative to team situation, and cap space doesn't matter right now anyway.

No doubt. I was actually referencing Malkin, FWIW, who when healthy AND motivated, is the best player in the world. The problem is over that time period that was so rare. If Kopitar had been making the same percentage during that time none of us would have blinked due to his durability, consistency, and winning.

What good has it done for the Kings to keep Kopitar over the last four seasons? They could have gotten a bundle for him, and still had Doughty in his best years. The indications this situation was probably going to happen were there. People just didn't want to see it.

 

[redcard]

What's in it for Montreal, or any team other than Nashville to put Weber on LTIR?

Weber to Nashville for a pick, Weber subsequently LTIRes

 

[KINGS17]

Weber to Nashville for a pick, Weber subsequently LTIRes

Yeah, a very high pick for sure.

 

[redcard]

Yeah, a very high pick for sure.

Maybe, because Nashville would be in serious trouble if they don't make a trade, but at the same time Montreal wouldn't gain anything from refusing a low pick. If Nashville refuses to offer more than a 3rd are the Habs really going to say no and forego the free pick just because they think they can extort them for more? Weber also would have a say in this too, he's got a 7 mil cap hit, he could mail it in and collect his 1 mil per year refusing to retire forcing MTL to LTIR or trade him to Nashville.

In the end it'll come down to the relationship between the two GMs and Weber, and given that they're all fully aware of this and have 5 years to play nice and figure it out I wouldn't be too worried if I were Nashville.

 

[johnjm22]

Panarin will be 28 years old in October.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Then the GM would simply need to sack up and not overpay the middle class or replace them with cost-controlled youth right? I thought this is something you and I agreed on.

It's not the Superstar contracts throwing the NHL out of whack, it's the bull**** for upper-middle and middle-tier guys.

The superstar contracts set the market, though.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The superstar contracts set the market, though.

Fair, but it's not those contracts that people are often trying to get out of; it's the middle-class guys who can't sustain. The Zaitsevs, for example. This isn't the only industry with a gap in market worth. We all know the GMs can't help themselves, though.

None of the guys making more than 9-10 million haven't been worth it at some point, while a whole lot of the guys in the 5-9 range are getting paid on potential/hopes and dreams. Hayes is a good example. The GMs are shitting in one hand and wishing in another then getting surprised when the former fills up first.

 

[KINGS17]

Fair, but it's not those contracts that people are often trying to get out of; it's the middle-class guys who can't sustain. The Zaitsevs, for example. This isn't the only industry with a gap in market worth. We all know the GMs can't help themselves, though.

None of the guys making more than 9-10 million haven't been worth it at some point, while a whole lot of the guys in the 5-9 range are getting paid on potential/hopes and dreams. Hayes is a good example. The GMs are ****ting in one hand and wishing in another then getting surprised when the former fills up first.

Check the Chicago boards the season before last. Those fans definitely wanted out of the Toews contract.

How many times have we seen people on his board in GDTs say in two of the last three seasons, "The Kings are paying $10M for this?" Fans are fickle to be sure. Paying a player a retirement contract when the team is not in contention, and the player is not a consistent future is a waste of money. Even worse, it's a waste of time.

No one can control the GMs other than the owners. Let's hope that happens in the next CBA, because it will mean better hockey for fans of the NHL.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Panarin will be 28 years old in October.

I wonder if a team and a player would be receptive to such a contract on a short term. Say, a three-year, $36M contract. For a team that feels like they are close to contention and need that one missing piece on offense, Panarin would make sense, on a short term. For a player who wants to earn as much as possible, Panarin can cash out on a three-year deal and negotiate a new contract while he's still in his early 30s.

There's no f***ing way he should get that on a max term.

 

[KINGS17]

I wonder if a team and a player would be receptive to such a contract on a short term. Say, a three-year, $36M contract. For a team that feels like they are close to contention and need that one missing piece on offense, Panarin would make sense, on a short term. For a player who wants to earn as much as possible, Panarin can cash out on a three-year deal and negotiate a new contract while he's still in his early 30s.

There's no ****ing way he should get that on a max term.

Max term will be okay, it's only 14.46% of the cap. In another couple of years the salary cap will have gone up another $7M, and that makes it only 13.33%, and by 2024-25 when the cap is finally $100M it will only be 12%. That's not too much for a 33-year old winger.

I think you are on the right track with the 3-year term, if he wants that large of a cap hit. It's still a big risk with a $87M cap hit, lieutenant.

 

[Ollie Weeks]

Panarin is a guy who SHOULD be a productive player for at least another 5 years. A big contract for a guy like that is at least somewhat palatable.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Fair, but it's not those contracts that people are often trying to get out of; it's the middle-class guys who can't sustain. The Zaitsevs, for example. This isn't the only industry with a gap in market worth. We all know the GMs can't help themselves, though.

None of the guys making more than 9-10 million haven't been worth it at some point, while a whole lot of the guys in the 5-9 range are getting paid on potential/hopes and dreams. Hayes is a good example. The GMs are ****ting in one hand and wishing in another then getting surprised when the former fills up first.

Eh, Kopitar arguably wasn’t worth his second contract in the beginning, either. Any contract beyond 5 years is a gamble to some extent, which is why the BOG needs to dig their heels in on 5 year limits.

Idk. Tough argument all around. Proper cap management is definitely a necessity in building a contender, though.

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

definitely looking around. Remember a few years ago thornton did the same (LA was a finalist for him) till San Jose eventually re-signed him. This feels like that to me, except two things 1)I think Pavelski will be looking for term and security at his age 2) San Jose does not have the cap space to overpay on a 1 year deal.

That Sharks reporter is saying it seems likely Pavelski won't be back due to their cap situation. Does Thornton get the C back? lol jokes aside, it'll probably be Couture with Burns and Karlsson getting the A's.

I hit like because I agree with the Dehaan half. Maata's speed sounds like it could be a real concern

Maata is a worse version of Muzzin. Makes incredibly boneheaded plays a lot and his ceiling isn't aas high as Muzzin's.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Check the Chicago boards the season before last. Those fans definitely wanted out of the Toews contract.

How many times have we seen people on his board in GDTs say in two of the last three seasons, "The Kings are paying $10M for this?" Fans are fickle to be sure. Paying a player a retirement contract when the team is not in contention, and the player is not a consistent future is a waste of money. Even worse, it's a waste of time.

No one can control the GMs other than the owners. Let's hope that happens in the next CBA, because it will mean better hockey for fans of the NHL.

Fans complaining about player performance on a message board is a far cry from a GM actively trying to move/buy out contracts.

 

[KINGS17]

Fans complaining about player performance on a message board is a far cry from a GM actively trying to move/buy out contracts.

You said "people", not "GMs". In context I suppose only GMs can get out of a contract, so that's fine.

Pretty hard for a GM to trade a contract no other GM would take, or because it has a NTC attached to it. One wonders if a GM would pull the trigger and cut particular players given the current status of their roster and a player's performance.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Fair, but it's not those contracts that people are often trying to get out of; it's the middle-class guys who can't sustain. The Zaitsevs, for example. This isn't the only industry with a gap in market worth. We all know the GMs can't help themselves, though.

None of the guys making more than 9-10 million haven't been worth it at some point, while a whole lot of the guys in the 5-9 range are getting paid on potential/hopes and dreams. Hayes is a good example. The GMs are ****ting in one hand and wishing in another then getting surprised when the former fills up first.

I wouldn't say they're surprised. There are no secrets out there. GMs know what they're paying for. If everyone knew the contract Lucic got from the Oilers was bad the moment the pen met paper, it's very difficult to think Chiarelli didn't know that too. Give a guy a big 7 year deal, and if he's not 21, you're paying for the first couple years of the deal. If those years aren't good, you're not in the job, and don't have to deal with the other 5 years. GMs may be stupid, but they also exist at the mercy of the industry. July 1st is not flooded every year with great free agents. You can't poach talent from another franchise. There's no enticing a player to come to your team with a 2 week notice in January. You can't just fire someone for decreasing productivity. You get locked into that money, and the cap(both ceiling and floor) makes it that much more difficult to clean up a mess, and it's almost impossible not to make a mess because in demand players hold the leverage in individual contract negotiations. Talent is too rare, which is why players would never want the market flooded with talent every summer.

 

[deaderhead28]