Around the League 2018-2019 Part 3

[BigKing]

It isn't a hard rule but the times it has happened, it is an outlier.

I believe the Kings can still win a Cup with the Kopitar and Doughty contracts but it would take the prospects hitting at an above average rate and with some of the hits being true home runs. Crazy ELC production is what it will take.

 

[johnjm22]

Doesn't everyone understand, $10.5M max term contracts win championships.

I don't know. Both those contracts look pretty good right now IMO. I don't think they're preventing the team from winning anything.

 

[crassbonanza]

If you can't see the difference, that's on you. BTW, how long did it take for Pittsburgh to get back into contention after Crosby and Malkin both got their money?

Other than Crosby and Malkin, who else is on your exception list?

Is McDavid? Kane? Kucherov? Matthews? Tavares? MacKinnon? Draisaitl? Stamkos? Barkov? Ovechkin? Jones? Giordano?

What level is good enough to have a 10.5 million dollar contract and win the cup?

 

[KINGS17]

Other than Crosby and Malkin, who else is on your exception list?

Is McDavid? Kane? Kucherov? Matthews? Tavares? MacKinnon? Draisaitl? Stamkos? Barkov? Ovechkin? Jones? Giordano?

What level is good enough to have a 10.5 million dollar contract and win the cup?

When we see a player with a $10M+ cap hit win a cup, then we'll know. Didn't know any player in Tampa was making $10M+, same with MacKinnon, Barkov, etc.

 

[KINGS17]

I don't know. Both those contracts look pretty good right now IMO. I don't think they're preventing the team from winning anything.

At their ages, I don't think the Toews and Kane contracts are good deals. Just as the Kings are, the Blackhawks are also affected by the other contracts they overpaid on such as Seabrook. Toews is 31 years old. I don't think he maintains last season's performance for four more years. Last season was probably an outlier for him.

More to the point though, the contracts at the time they were signed were not conducive to winning. I don't think it makes sense for a GM to pay that kind of cap hit to a player in his late 20's then hope said player will still be performing in four or five years while the organization waits for the salary cap to give them enough breathing room to add some additional pieces to the puzzle.

I still don't think Chicago is a contender next season, but they did help there defense some with the De Haan trade.

 

[KingsFan7824]

...and the Blackhawks still missed the playoffs. I don't think Kane and Toews will have the staying power to make the Blackhawks contenders again before their time runs out.

Like I said, if the Hawks just quit, then maybe they re-evaluate. If they don't do that though, they don't want to purposely suck. The Kings don't either, but the players gave them no choice but to punt on at least next season. I know sports are boom or bust, but just making the playoffs is a legit goal. Over the last 2 years combined, the Hawks are in the bottom 10. They don't want to be there. We know the Kings core is inept, but maybe Kane/Toews/Keith/Seabrook are putting pressure on the Hawks to not completely waste whatever seasons they have left. Maybe they don't care either, and Bowman is an overrated GM who has ownership telling him to get back to the playoffs.

 

[crassbonanza]

It isn't a hard rule but the times it has happened, it is an outlier.

I believe the Kings can still win a Cup with the Kopitar and Doughty contracts but it would take the prospects hitting at an above average rate and with some of the hits being true home runs. Crazy ELC production is what it will take.

2018: Ovechkin had a 12.6 CH%
2017: Malkin had a 13.0 CH%
2016: Malkin had a 13.3 CH%
2015: Kane had a 9.1 CH%
2014: Doughty had a 10.8 CH%
2013: Kane had a 10.5 CH%
2012: Doughty had a 10.8 CH%
2011: Chara had a 12.6 CH%

10.5 million will be 12.8 CH%, so it seems that the Kings/Hawks are the outliers.

 

[crassbonanza]

When we see a player with a $10M+ cap hit win a cup, then we'll know. Didn't know any player in Tampa was making $10M+, same with MacKinnon, Barkov, etc.

Half of the cup winners going back to 2010 had a player on the roster making more than 12.2 CH%(10M). So, we already have seen a player with a 10M+ cap hit win the cup.

 

[BigKing]

2018: Ovechkin had a 12.6 CH%
2017: Malkin had a 13.0 CH%
2016: Malkin had a 13.3 CH%
2015: Kane had a 9.1 CH%
2014: Doughty had a 10.8 CH%
2013: Kane had a 10.5 CH%
2012: Doughty had a 10.8 CH%
2011: Chara had a 12.6 CH%

10.5 million will be 12.8 CH%, so it seems that the Kings/Hawks are the outliers.

What are you saying here except that, again, Malkin/Ovechkin/Crosby are insane talents and the Kings/Hawks won because they didn't have anyone on retirement contracts?

 

[KINGS17]

Half of the cup winners going back to 2010 had a player on the roster making more than 12.2 CH%(10M). So, we already have seen a player with a 10M+ cap hit win the cup.

Let me try this one more time...

From above:

More to the point though, the contracts at the time they were signed were not conducive to winning. I don't think it makes sense for a GM to pay that kind of cap hit to a player in his late 20's then hope said player will still be performing in four or five years while the organization waits for the salary cap to give them enough breathing room to add some additional pieces to the puzzle.

Yes, as the cap rises $12M will become the new $10.5M. The cap isn't rising that quickly though, so how long does a GM wait for that to happen. Any ideas about a player's performance who will now be in their early 30's on a contract you wish you could get rid of, but can't?

 

[KINGS17]

2018: Ovechkin had a 12.6 CH%
2017: Malkin had a 13.0 CH%
2016: Malkin had a 13.3 CH%
2015: Kane had a 9.1 CH%
2014: Doughty had a 10.8 CH%
2013: Kane had a 10.5 CH%
2012: Doughty had a 10.8 CH%
2011: Chara had a 12.6 CH%

10.5 million will be 12.8 CH%, so it seems that the Kings/Hawks are the outliers.

At a cap hit for Doughty now of $11M, when the salary cap reaches $110M+, let me know.

Last season $11M was 13.8% of the salary cap, $10.5M was 13.2%. Thanks for making my point.

 

[crassbonanza]

What are you saying here except that, again, Malkin/Ovechkin/Crosby are insane talents and the Kings/Hawks won because they didn't have anyone on retirement contracts?

I am saying that half of the teams going back to 2010 had players with cap hits north of 10.2 CH%(10M). I am saying that it is not an outlier to have one. We can explain the reason nearly every team won the cup, obviously the players have to be good. Using raw numbers when the cap continues to rise is nonsensical. That is my point.

 

[KINGS17]

I am saying that half of the teams going back to 2010 had players with cap hits north of 102.2 CH%(10M). I am saying that it is not an outlier.

Yes, it is an outlier because who shows up on your list multiple times? The same two players.

Last season $10M was 12.6% of the cap. Other than guess who, Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, and Chara in his absolute prime, you got nothin'.

 

[crassbonanza]

Yes, it is an outlier because who shows up on your list multiple times? The same two players.

Last season $10M was 12.6% of the cap. Other than guess who, Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, and Chara in his absolute prime, you got nothin'.

"Unless the players on your team are good, you won't win a Stanley Cup"

 

[fivehole32]

Palm Springs makes way more sense due to travel. They would have had to fly to all of their away games, and that's tough on an AHL budget. It's a perk when the Reign get to fly. They even bus it all the way to San Jose sometimes depending on the schedule. Plus they get a new arena in PS and you can fly direct PSP to SEA on Alaska airlines.

During our travel season there are 9 direct flights to Seattle out of PSP. They seemed to strike a pretty good deal. One of the local tribes has the space near downtown. and due to the fact its being built on Indian land they don't have to deal with the nutty council who would have held up construction for years.

 

[crassbonanza]

Let me try this one more time...

From above:

More to the point though, the contracts at the time they were signed were not conducive to winning. I don't think it makes sense for a GM to pay that kind of cap hit to a player in his late 20's then hope said player will still be performing in four or five years while the organization waits for the salary cap to give them enough breathing room to add some additional pieces to the puzzle.

Yes, as the cap rises $12M will become the new $10.5M. The cap isn't rising that quickly though, so how long does a GM wait for that to happen. Any ideas about a player's performance who will now be in their early 30's on a contract you wish you could get rid of, but can't?

Malkin won in the 2nd and 3rd year of his deal, so I imagine it would have been conducive to winning. Oh wait, is he an exception?

 

[BigKing]

Ok. Of course, we were prisoners of the "who cares, cap always goes up" thought process until the guys on the big contracts stopped producing as much so it didn't matter.

Teams are always going to try and sign their $10-11-12MM players because that's just the way it is. K17 thinks you shouldn't unless the player is transcendent and not close to 30. Even then, there is cause for pause.

My thing is you can have that big contract, or two, but those guys both have to be living up to it and you need to somehow have the depth. That's where the ELCs come in since it is hard to field a bunch of $4-5MM contracts when you are paying a couple guys 1/4 of your cap.

 

[BigKing]

Malkin won in the 2nd and 3rd year of his deal, so I imagine it would have been conducive to winning. Oh wait, is he an exception?

You can afford to pay Malkin 13% when you have Crosby taking up less than that. Having Crosby/Malkin as your 1-2 center punch is, in fact, an outlier.

They also finally started getting contributions from young guys out of nowhere making no money.

 

[deeshamrock]

Crawford needs to stay healthy for them or they need to bring in a better back up. Toews could have the kopitar regression this year however some of the moves their GM made look really good (strome) that should help the hawks out if there is regression from their older players.

Getting Maata will help and stealing DeHaan was a real coup.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

It isn't a hard rule but the times it has happened, it is an outlier.

I believe the Kings can still win a Cup with the Kopitar and Doughty contracts but it would take the prospects hitting at an above average rate and with some of the hits being true home runs. Crazy ELC production is what it will take.

It would take something pretty wild like Turcotte, Kupari, Kaliyev, Bjornfot, and another defensive prospect really developing quickly and becoming good players.

So if literally everything went right and all of these prospects hit, we’re still looking at 22/23 at the earliest.

Kopitar would be 34-35, Doughty 31-32.

 

[deeshamrock]

...and the Blackhawks still missed the playoffs. I don't think Kane and Toews will have the staying power to make the Blackhawks contenders again before their time runs out.

The bigger issue to me is Keith (36 when the season starts) 4 more years and Seabrook (34) with 5 more years.s That's about 12M per for both.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The difference between winning a Cup and not isn't an extra million dollars to your two best players. Such a fallacy and I'm sick of it.

Reminds me of the thread saying "no team has won the cup with a player making 10m or more" when Ovechkin had literally just won with a 9.5 hit. It's an arbitrary bullshit number meant to slam our players and nothing more. Get over it.

 

[crassbonanza]

You can afford to pay Malkin 13% when you have Crosby taking up less than that. Having Crosby/Malkin as your 1-2 center punch is, in fact, an outlier.

They also finally started getting contributions from young guys out of nowhere making no money.

Hmm, seems like with this many exceptions there is no hard and fast rule about contract amounts. Especially when we are discussing raw numbers and not CH%.

 

[YP44]

Getting Maata will help and stealing DeHaan was a real coup.

I hit like because I agree with the Dehaan half. Maata's speed sounds like it could be a real concern

 

[KINGS17]

The difference between winning a Cup and not isn't an extra million dollars to your two best players. Such a fallacy and I'm sick of it.

Reminds me of the thread saying "no team has won the cup with a player making 10m or more" when Ovechkin had literally just won with a 9.5 hit. It's an arbitrary bull**** number meant to slam our players and nothing more. Get over it.

Yes, because rarely do the players who have taken that kind of money provide the performance which should associated with those contracts. You are literally talking about Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin.

Outside of last season, was it worth it for Chicago to sign Toews? It still wasn't worth it, because they missed the playoffs.

People see the dollar amounts I quote and get riled up because it matches the numbers for Kopitar and Doughty, but try to move from the specific case used as an example to the general idea.

It's not the precise number that matters, it is what over payment and contracts with excessive term do in general to a franchise.