Around the League '15-'16: PP Points Don't Count Edition

[cyclones22]

It sucks that we are forced to create this Doughty - Karlsson rivalry, because EK is fun to watch, but it would be nice if Senators fans admitted that Karlsson is basically a forward.

And he wouldn't be in the Selke discussion, ever. Think about that. But since he plays the defenseman position and scores a ton of points, Norris!

 

[Trolfoli]

OTT dead last in GA with 220.

Karlsson the #1 TOI guy on that team.

Flames 217
Blue Jackets 215
Oilers 212
Coyotes 211
Stars 208 (not sure if this has been updated after tonight's ass whopping)
Jets 205
Leafs 202

It takes a Norris trophy D to lead their team to a worse Defense then those other teams.

****! TO's in full AHL mode for Matthews at this point and their still at 202 GA. Worse then a team that's tanking! Most impressive.

 

[Reclamation Project]

"The Senators go through Erik Karlsson."

214 goals allowed (second worst in the NHL, ahead of powerhouse teams such as Edmonton, Arizona, and Dallas), 3.01 goal allowed per game (fourth worst in the NHL, also worse than the Oilers), 75.1 penalty kill percentage (second worst in the NHL, worse than the Sabres, Blue Jackets, and Oilers), and 33.2 shots allowed per game (King of the Hill - the absolute worst in the NHL).

Garbage team is garbage. If this team was in the South no one would give a single **** about them.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It sucks that we are forced to create this Doughty - Karlsson rivalry, because EK is fun to watch, but it would be nice if Senators fans admitted that Karlsson is basically a forward.

The thing is, they ARE just very opposite, and in very different situations, on different coasts, and the bigger problem (for EK too, honestly) is the complete lack of accurate defensive performance metrics.

EK CAN be better at defense. He has the raw tools and a great IQ. He'd never be a bruiser, but he's got an elite stick and the offensive sense to read plays like Doughty. But he's not performing, because his focus is a mess, and he gets often caught in bad pinches and reads erring to offense.

Doughty CAN be better at defense. Same thing, raw tools, perfect IQ. The biggest problem is mostly players around him finishing, really, but he's not getting raw output.

EK is flat out elite at creating offense. Right now he's in a bit of a lull, but what impresses me most about him is not highlight-reel stuff, it's wiring breakout passes, making subtle look-offs or opening his blade to bait forecheckers, and zinging a pass elsewhere. It's how he effortlessly gets every puck through and on net, or at least near misses on purpose for a deflection or area pass.

Doughty is flat out elite defensively. especially with the anchors he's been carrying all year. What he does is not quantified; tonight's a perfect example, he disarmed top scorers all night hardly breaking a sweat, moved the puck out effortlessly, and ended +3 for those efforts. He CRUSHES people. He plays all situations--and I always say don't hold deployment against people, but you have to use deployment as a plus in this case--I forget the exact numbers I posted last night, but Doughty's SH time on ice last night is more than Klingberg has had ALL SEASON. Multiply it by 5 and you pass Barrie, 6 ...OEL? and 11 Karlsson. It's nuts how much he does for this team that doesn't show up on the scoresheet because his number one job requirement is to not show up on the scoresheet.

THAT being said, the really damning thing for EK for me is team defensive stuff because they're a notably worse defensive team on the ice and that passes the eye test with his pinching/positioning:

He's been on the ice for 69 5v5 goals for, worst in the league by 10. The worst last year was J Schultz with 72; so, Karlsson has 12 games to allow less than 3 5v5 goals, heh.

But since he plays a lot of minutes, let's go by rates: his 2.78 GA/60 is 6th worst of all d-men who have played 50 games +. Fine, he's on a bad team--well, his usual partner, Methot, is #2 at 2.44 GA/60, and #3 is 2.37. only Ottawa player worse is Bobby Ryan. relative to his team, EK's GA/60 rel is 0.76. They literally give up 3/4 more a goal per 60 with him on the ice. that's 4th worst amongst league defensemen.

But fine, he generates offense, so let's see if that balances out--nope. His GF% is 48.9%, 5th out of 7 Ottawa d-men with 50+ games. Relative to team, he's exactly middle of the pack.

In other words, he barely outscores the problems he creates. No clue why that's impressive.

On the other side, Doughty has been on for 36 5v5 GA, 1.53 GA/60 (2nd to Martinez, but consider deployment/minutes). -0.43 GA/60 rel, so we're nearly a half-goal better with him on the ice. Doughty's GF% is 57.1%, and 5.3% relative to team.

Note this is Drew distinguishing himself on a stellar team while EK is doing this on a bad team.

Never mind the corsi, because that's even funnier.

but then you get knobs like this who just refuse to open their minds and budge, and resort to main-board arguments to make their very stupid case:



Yes, he votes on the Norris.

And it's a shame because there's a very good case to be made for Karlsson but idiots mess it up.

 

[Reclamation Project]

Yes, I don't believe the Kings would have won two Stanley Cups if EK replaced DD. Drew was arguably the Kings best player during both runs because of his dominating DEFENSE. It's hard for some people to grasp.

 

[Reclamation Project]

My mama says that Karlsson got all them Norris trophies but no defense.

 

[ScoreZeGoals]

I 100% believe the Kings don't win those cups with Karlsson instead of Doughty

 

[cyclones22]

The funniest thing is the outright denial that EK is ever responsible for any of those goals that get scored while he is on the ice. How do they deny it? It's amazing and it's not just this season, it's every season but one. Especially since he fails the eyeball test repeatedly. But shot suppression! While completely ignoring goal suppression! How does that even make sense at all? Just ignore it when the puck is in the back of the net. What makes Drew even more impressive is other elite defensemen also give up goals at a poor rate relative to their teammates. Drew being so good at goal suppression is an outlier in comparison. I guess he is just lucky. Every single season.

And hell no do I have 2 replica Stanley Cups if EK is on board instead of Drew. Those are the same idiots who try and discount Kopitar and Quick as well by saying that the Kings would have at least the same amount of Cups with Malkin/Stamkos/Giroux at center and Lundqvist/Rask/Miller in goal. Because on paper is how all championships are decided and system fit doesn't matter. The best on paper always win the Super Bowl or the World Series or Stanley Cup, right? Nope. The only sport where that's close to being true is the NBA and that's because their rosters are so small and your best players can play over 80% of a game to influence outcomes. For example, I like Peyton Manning and Brett Favre, but they didn't always produce at the biggest stage after demolishing the league in the regular season. So there's no guarantee it carries over to the SCF. The fact that Kopi, Quick and Drew outpaced their regular season output numerous times in the playoffs says something. They elevate their games even higher and that's best on best competition. No non-playoff pansies in the bracket.

 

[Nefarious]

but then you get knobs like this who just refuse to open their minds and budge, and resort to main-board arguments to make their very stupid case:



Yes, he votes on the Norris.

I do believe that. Here's the kicker. If he has to ask that question, it leads me to believe he hasn't really seen a King's game, much less in the playoffs. Does he live on the east coast? Or under a rock? And yes, I've seen Karlsson play, many many times. I've also seen his individual stat sheet, and the team stat sheet.

 

[deeshamrock]

tidbit from the GM's meetings on the expansion draft

Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 7m7 minutes ago

GM's told expansion decision expected before June draft. If expand by 1 team, each team loses 1 player...if two teams, 2 players.



Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 12m12 minutes ago

Expansion draft potential. Each team has option of protecting 3d, 7F and I goalie or 8 skaters +1 goalie. Expansion determined before draft



Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 9m9 minutes ago

Daly says prospects plus first- and second-year NHL players will be exempt from a potential expansion draft.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Veeerry interesting expansion info.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I do believe that. Here's the kicker. If he has to ask that question, it leads me to believe he hasn't really seen a King's game, much less in the playoffs. Does he live on the east coast? Or under a rock? And yes, I've seen Karlsson play, many many times. I've also seen his individual stat sheet, and the team stat sheet.

I just wish we had a good video editor with free time to capture what drew does defensively. There's a different EK propoganda video every week

I'd do it myself but 1. I'm terrible 2. I wouldn't at all know where/how to get clips!

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Cap expected to top around 74 per Dreger

 

[deeshamrock]

Cap expected to top around 74 per Dreger

with the escalator...and I'm not sure how they are going to pull that off with the plunging dollar .

 

[deeshamrock]

Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 15m15 minutes ago

Bill Daly says salary cap projection given was around $74 million with the escalator, but a flat cap without the escalator.


Goalie Equipment

Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 22h22 hours ago

Goalie equipment update was given to GMs today. Sense is it's full steam ahead with streamlined goalie equipment. NHLPA and NHL on same page


Improving Scoring:

Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 22h22 hours ago

Another of the breakaway groups discussed ways to improve offense. One idea was going full 2 min on a PP even if a goal was scored.(con't)

I love that idea, and that was the original rule, before Jean Beliveau scored so many they had to change it.

 

[Nefarious]

The funniest thing is the outright denial that EK is ever responsible for any of those goals that get scored while he is on the ice. How do they deny it? It's amazing and it's not just this season, it's every season but one. Especially since he fails the eyeball test repeatedly. But shot suppression! While completely ignoring goal suppression! How does that even make sense at all? Just ignore it when the puck is in the back of the net. What makes Drew even more impressive is other elite defensemen also give up goals at a poor rate relative to their teammates. Drew being so good at goal suppression is an outlier in comparison. I guess he is just lucky. Every single season.

And hell no do I have 2 replica Stanley Cups if EK is on board instead of Drew. Those are the same idiots who try and discount Kopitar and Quick as well by saying that the Kings would have at least the same amount of Cups with Malkin/Stamkos/Giroux at center and Lundqvist/Rask/Miller in goal. Because on paper is how all championships are decided and system fit doesn't matter. The best on paper always win the Super Bowl or the World Series or Stanley Cup, right? Nope. The only sport where that's close to being true is the NBA and that's because their rosters are so small and your best players can play over 80% of a game to influence outcomes. For example, I like Peyton Manning and Brett Favre, but they didn't always produce at the biggest stage after demolishing the league in the regular season. So there's no guarantee it carries over to the SCF. The fact that Kopi, Quick and Drew outpaced their regular season output numerous times in the playoffs says something. They elevate their games even higher and that's best on best competition. No non-playoff pansies in the bracket.

You bring up some very good points. Here's the more interesting thing. All those things you've said seem to mostly apply when talking about the Kings, specifically. When it's other teams, people take a more objective stance and can apply logic. When it comes to the Kings, there is just this mental constipation where all logic goes to die. Those said fans will poopoo the opinions of Coaches, beat writers, owners, GMs, etc of anyone who gives an honest and objective opinion on the Kings players/style of play.

Commonly used dismissive statement? "That coach is dumb." Substitute the word "coach" for any noun wanting to be maligned. Any facts or logic used to refute is met with, "LALALALA, I can't hear you!"

Oh well. Proof is in the pudding. I guess in the end it doesn't really matter what is said, but what happens on the ice. Two stanleys in my lifetime, and perhaps another? Cool with me. I'm chill!

 

[KopitarFAN]

tidbit from the GM's meetings on the expansion draft





Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 12m12 minutes ago

Expansion draft potential. Each team has option of protecting 3d, 7F and 1 goalie or 8 skaters +1 goalie. Expansion determined before draft

I guess we'll find out how much Dean values McNabb, gotta think he'll protect Dewey, Muzzin, Martinez and Quick in either situation, but does he value him more than anyone beyond the top 4 forwards? (Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli and Pearson) I am only working with guys who are signed/controlled beyond next season, as that is when this will happen. Obviously this changes if they re-sign Lucic and if they have to protect Brown because of his NMC.

 

[deeshamrock]

I guess we'll find out how much Dean values McNabb, gotta think he'll protect Dewey, Muzzin, Martinez and Quick in either situation, but does he value him more than anyone beyond the top 4 forwards? (Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli and Pearson) I am only working with guys who are signed/controlled beyond next season, as that is when this will happen. Obviously this changes if they re-sign Lucic and if they have to protect Brown because of his NMC.

Those NMC's are gonna make some GM's have tough decisions, depending on how many they gave out over the years or traded for a player who has one

 

[mrkolice]

ducks - rangers tonight. i'll watch it as an overture to kings - rangers tomorrow, but i'm also curious about the ducks in general, lak's path to stanley is only over their corpses.

 

[KopitarFAN]

Damien Cox is on Hockey Central and said NMC players will likely be exempt from the expansion, but teams won't have to protect them among their 9 or 11 players.

 

[deeshamrock]

Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 5m5 minutes ago

Other pertinent expansion draft detail: teams must expose enough players which total at least 25 percent of previous season's payroll

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

but then you get knobs like this who just refuse to open their minds and budge, and resort to main-board arguments to make their very stupid case:



Yes, he votes on the Norris.

And it's a shame because there's a very good case to be made for Karlsson but idiots mess it up.

Yeah but Karlsson wouldn't be the same player on the Kings. Offensively he'd still be better than Doughty but he wouldn't be getting close to 80 points. He'd probably sit around 60-65 on the Kings.

 

[Nefarious]

Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 5m5 minutes ago

Other pertinent expansion draft detail: teams must expose enough players which total at least 25 percent of previous season's payroll

That seems weird to me. In previous expansions did they also take into account payroll, or is this a new thing?

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

Damien Cox is on Hockey Central and said NMC players will likely be exempt from the expansion, but teams won't have to protect them among their 9 or 11 players.

Teams won't have to protect players with NMC's?? That's stupid. Chicago has all their top guys on NMC's. Of course they'd have to hit the 25% thing but that's incredibly unfair if they don't have to protect guys like Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, or Hjalmarsson.

 

[YP44]

with the escalator...and I'm not sure how they are going to pull that off with the plunging dollar .

it's done plunging...been coming back up a bit the last month to so..Will not be close to par for a while.

Initial rev forecasts were done at $0.80, which the dollar is still below and will be for some time.