Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - Looking to the offseason

[Armourboy]

I like him and don't want to see him traded, but I'm also not sure how high his is ceiling is at this point. Serviceable #4 if paired with a good #3 but a bottom pairing guy if he has to carry the pairing I guess? They seem to think more of a Carrier.

With the recent track record whatever they seem to think I would be heading in the exact opposite direction.

 

[cool beans]

Wasteful is one word for it.

Utterly clueless another. If the plan is to go through a transition and start bringing up the next group of core players, then you are clueless to jettison younger players so as to bring in and keep guys nearing the end of their career. It screams dysfunctional into a giant megaphone.

Agree 100%

 

[glenngineer]

Paired with Josi last year for his historic season and tonight a healthy scratch? Something isn't adding up.

 

[ShagDaddy]

Fabbro is a victim of the salary cap.

With the addition of McDonagh added to the roster at $6.75M for the next four years, it really put a crimp in how much of a pay raise the Predators can pay their RFA’s. If the cap was going up drastically paying Fabbro his current salary for another couple of years and see if he is able to develop more without a whole lot of consequences. Unfortunately that’s not the case and with the cap barely going up, it actually matters how much your 3rd pairing defenseman makes. If the organization can get the same level of performance for less than half that price, they kind of have too for cap reasons.

I have no idea if they’re going to trade him or not but i honestly don’t think they can give him the same contract or a pay raise with the cap being what it is. I guess that’s why Poile makes the big bucks……

 

[Kat Predator]

Fabbro is a victim of the salary cap.

With the addition of McDonagh added to the roster at $6.75M for the next four years, it really put a crimp in how much of a pay raise the Predators can pay their RFA’s. If the cap was going up drastically paying Fabbro his current salary for another couple of years and see if he is able to develop more without a whole lot of consequences. Unfortunately that’s not the case and with the cap barely going up, it actually matters how much your 3rd pairing defenseman makes. If the organization can get the same level of performance for less than half that price, they kind of have too for cap reasons.

I have no idea if they’re going to trade him or not but i honestly don’t think they can give him the same contract or a pay raise with the cap being what it is. I guess that’s why Poile makes the big bucks……

On the other hand, capfriendly says there are only 5 teams in the league with more than $4 million in projected cap. (They are all bad teams.) All these guys who are looking for huge raises, especially if they aren't superstars, are going to be super disappointed, looks like.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

On the other hand, capfriendly says there are only 5 teams in the league with more than $4 million in projected cap. (They are all bad teams.) All these guys who are looking for huge raises, especially if they aren't superstars, are going to be super disappointed, looks like.

Yeah, and on top of that given how Fabbro has played this year (leaving aside the question of reasons why) then it's not like we'd be paying him more than about the same $2.4M for another year. Which we could easily afford. Plus with neither Jeannot nor Carrier putting up numbers like last year, the whole Cap conundrum for us kind of just steps quietly into quicksand and sinks away to oblivion.

 

[Scoresberg]

You can only trade so many RHD before your RHD pool is completely empty. Add Fabbro to the long list of Jones, Weber, Subban, Ellis.

 

[Scoresberg]

Just some food for thought: I've been thinking, if we want to go selling - I believe we could turn this thing around pretty quick. Kind of like a mini re-tool.

1. Move Fabbro for a younger, equivalent forward. Podkolzin from Vancouver has been one name that has popped up.

2. Move Sissons for cap reasons, for picks. I think you could get a 4th - but more importantly, you'd get cap space and flexibility.

3. Move Trenin already at this TDL. Poile's known for moving players who have gone to arbitration, and I think you could really get a haul for him if you're willing to move him this year. I think you could get a low-1st, a high-2nd or a really good prospect like Matthew Knies from Toronto.

Forsberg - Pärssinen - Duchene
Knies - Johansen - Tomasino
Niederraiter - Glass - Granlund
Podkolzin - Novak - Jeannot

Josi - McDonagh
Ekholm - Carrier
Lauzon - X

Something would need to be done for that defense. Signing Ufko from college and Chistyakov from Russia would be a start.

 

[Armourboy]

Just some food for thought: I've been thinking, if we want to go selling - I believe we could turn this thing around pretty quick. Kind of like a mini re-tool.

1. Move Fabbro for a younger, equivalent forward. Podkolzin from Vancouver has been one name that has popped up.

2. Move Sissons for cap reasons, for picks. I think you could get a 4th - but more importantly, you'd get cap space and flexibility.

3. Move Trenin already at this TDL. Poile's known for moving players who have gone to arbitration, and I think you could really get a haul for him if you're willing to move him this year. I think you could get a low-1st, a high-2nd or a really good prospect like Matthew Knies from Toronto.

Forsberg - Pärssinen - Duchene
Knies - Johansen - Tomasino
Niederraiter - Glass - Granlund
Podkolzin - Novak - Jeannot

Josi - McDonagh
Ekholm - Carrier
Lauzon - X

Something would need to be done for that defense. Signing Ufko from college and Chistyakov from Russia would be a start.

Whatever he does he can't lose Fabbro and Trenin for nothing. He already got zero for Tolvanen to start with.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Just some food for thought: I've been thinking, if we want to go selling - I believe we could turn this thing around pretty quick. Kind of like a mini re-tool.

1. Move Fabbro for a younger, equivalent forward. Podkolzin from Vancouver has been one name that has popped up.

2. Move Sissons for cap reasons, for picks. I think you could get a 4th - but more importantly, you'd get cap space and flexibility.

3. Move Trenin already at this TDL. Poile's known for moving players who have gone to arbitration, and I think you could really get a haul for him if you're willing to move him this year. I think you could get a low-1st, a high-2nd or a really good prospect like Matthew Knies from Toronto.

Forsberg - Pärssinen - Duchene
Knies - Johansen - Tomasino
Niederraiter - Glass - Granlund
Podkolzin - Novak - Jeannot

Josi - McDonagh
Ekholm - Carrier
Lauzon - X

Something would need to be done for that defense. Signing Ufko from college and Chistyakov from Russia would be a start.

Can't we just fire Hynes? I don't REALLY want to trade any of these guys.

I also don't think we have any "Cap reasons" to trade Sissons, regardless of that. He is worth WAAAAY more than a 4th. I wouldn't take a high 2nd for him.

Trenin... it basically hinges on just what the relationship is between the player and team. I know we all speculate that it must be fractured based on the history. But maybe just maybe neither side really carries any grudges like that. Anyway, his case just depends on knowing that, and only Poile knows it. If it's basically guaranteed in Poile's mind that Trenin will walk as a UFA in 2024, then he does have to do his due diligence in finding out what the market would offer. That best offer may not come this season, however, when Trenin has just 4 goals... there's always next year and maybe he'll have 12 goals at next year's deadline. But I definitely would not sell low on him this year, just for the sake of making a trade.

 

[herzausstein]

If we move fabbro, id prefer a rhd on their elc (lassi from ottawa as an ex.). Mckeown or gross fill in the roster spot for the year then we let the prospect battle for the spot.

Id also take a 1st and a placeholder dman but thats closer to magic beans than a prospect with some development in the ahl.

 

[Scoresberg]

From Daily Faceoff's Trade Board:

"7. Mattias Ekholm
Left Defense, Nashville Predators
Age: 32
Stats: 35 GP, 2 G, 9 A, 11 Pts
Contract: 3 more seasons, $6.25 million AAV
Scoop: Yes, it was just over a year ago that Ekholm signed a 4-year deal worth $25 million with the Predators, mainly to avoid a situation exactly like this one – where he is on the market. But Predators GM David Poile has some uncomfortable decisions to make as Nashville has regressed to a likely non-playoff team saddled with expensive, term-laden contracts. We’re told Poile is ready to consider moving Ekholm, and will have a few other cards are on the table. Could Ryan McDonagh also be available? McDonagh was convinced to waive his ‘no-trade’ clause to leave Tampa Bay, and that might be a tall ask this time around. And Ekholm doesn’t have any ‘no-trade’ protection in his deal. Buckle up on Lower Broadway."

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

From Daily Faceoff's Trade Board:

"7. Mattias Ekholm
Left Defense, Nashville Predators
Age: 32
Stats: 35 GP, 2 G, 9 A, 11 Pts
Contract: 3 more seasons, $6.25 million AAV
Scoop: Yes, it was just over a year ago that Ekholm signed a 4-year deal worth $25 million with the Predators, mainly to avoid a situation exactly like this one – where he is on the market. But Predators GM David Poile has some uncomfortable decisions to make as Nashville has regressed to a likely non-playoff team saddled with expensive, term-laden contracts. We’re told Poile is ready to consider moving Ekholm, and will have a few other cards are on the table. Could Ryan McDonagh also be available? McDonagh was convinced to waive his ‘no-trade’ clause to leave Tampa Bay, and that might be a tall ask this time around. And Ekholm doesn’t have any ‘no-trade’ protection in his deal. Buckle up on Lower Broadway."

I'm sorry, I just feel like they are recycling material poorly here. It doesn't make sense and they even say right off the bat in the blurb that it doesn't... they signed him to avoid this, and... will continue to avoid it.

I'm sure these guys get lots of extra hits and likes and whatever currency they value these days out of the Trade Deadline. So they want to put some names out there, and they want to try to put 2 and 2 together as they scan the rosters of likely non-playoff teams, of which we are unfortunately one.

But this doesn't make sense, not just from the Preds' perspective of having signed Ekholm already in mutual good faith, but also just from the perspective of the current NHL Salary Cap landscape. Teams don't have Cap space, not just now, but also projecting to next season. Moving larger contracts like this seems to inherently imply selling very very low and/or taking back contract dumps, or using retention, and Poile is just not going to do that to move a good player like Ekholm.

They aren't trying too hard with this one. Get some new material, dudes. If there is any rift between the Preds and Trenin, then at his salary he's more moveable. If Fabbro is in the doghouse, then his contract is more moveable. Oh wait, this flies in the face of "Bad Team Must Trade Veterans" auto-programming they are applying. No deadline seller would trade away cheaper/younger players! Heresy!

 

[Predsanddead24]

I just can't believe that Poile sees this as more of a roster problem than a coaching problem. Poile made quite a few acquisitions to bolster the roster this offseason so it doesn't make much sense to me that he is going to blow up the roster before he changes the coach. That very well may be what happens and it may be both a coaching and a roster problem, but it seems like you'd at least pull the easier lever first. I was totally fine with firing Laviolette but it seems weird that we're giving Hynes a longer leash than Lavi got given their respective accomplishments.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I just can't believe that Poile sees this as more of a roster problem than a coaching problem. Poile made quite a few acquisitions to bolster the roster this offseason so it doesn't make much sense to me that he is going to blow up the roster before he changes the coach. That very well may be what happens and it may be both a coaching and a roster problem, but it seems like you'd at least pull the easier lever first.

Maybe it is just coincidence that he pulled the lever after exactly Game 41 when he fired Lavy? Probably just coincidence. But we're also kind of tracking after Game 36 to a place were the next 5 games could legitimately tip our playoff chase significantly... well, 4-1 and we're possibly back in the hunt, 1-4 and it's basically the final nail in the coffin.

5-game road trip and a return home on Friday the 13th. I wonder if Hynes is superstitious...

 

[Enoch]

Honestly, hiring John Hynes is one of the worst decisions this franchise has ever made, and it is slowly destroying the shape of our roster and young players.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

This disbelief about what Poile is waiting for to fire Hynes seems overblown. Poile seems to be on the same page as Hynes and the rest of his management/ development/ evaluation staff.

 

[Enoch]

This disbelief about what Poile is waiting for to fire Hynes seems overblown. Poile seems to be on the same page as Hynes and the rest of his management/ development/ evaluation staff.

This is clear.

It is also an epic blunder.

He was a bad coach in NJ.

He is just as bad here.

 

[Predsanddead24]

This disbelief about what Poile is waiting for to fire Hynes seems overblown. Poile seems to be on the same page as Hynes and the rest of his management/ development/ evaluation staff.

Oh I agree Poile seems like he's on board with Hynes, but I just don't understand why he seems to have so much loyalty to him. Maybe the Lavi firing was more based on a disconnect between Poile and Lavi on the direction of the team.

Still if you compare performances between the two Hynes should be on his way out too. Lavi won the division, had a poor playoff performance (although we still won two games), and then had 0.549 point percentage at the midpoint of the season he was fired. Hynes got WC2, had a poor playoff performance, and currently has 0.528 point percentage this season. That's with what I would consider fairly comparable rosters too.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

i think 2 things can be true at the same time.

1) Hynes is a bad coach.

2) the roster constructed by poile that he invested big $$$ is never going to be able to get the results one would expect as their return on said investment $$$

…. i think we are up for another 2-3 years of mediocrity regardless of the coach. Hynes was the cherry on top of bad decisions by poile. I think poile’s time is nearing its end.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Oh I agree Poile seems like he's on board with Hynes, but I just don't understand why he seems to have so much loyalty to him. Maybe the Lavi firing was more based on a disconnect between Poile and Lavi on the direction of the team.

Still if you compare performances between the two Hynes should be on his way out too. Lavi won the division, had a poor playoff performance (although we still won two games), and then had 0.549 point percentage at the midpoint of the season he was fired. Hynes got WC2, had a poor playoff performance, and currently has 0.528 point percentage this season. That's with what I would consider fairly comparable rosters too.

To play devil's advocate, I see the two situations as wholly different.

Laviolette had his time to build a team, bring up prospects that were already in the system, and have trades made. The team was somewhat of a blank canvas with a propect pool and he and Poile did build a pretty good product but once the team started to drop off Laviolette had no answers on how to fix things and change the failing direction the team was going and supposedly refused to change his assistant coaches.

Hynes took over a team that was locked into some long-term contracts that were/are not team friendly and had basically no prospect pool. I think Poile still sees this as a work in progress and, right or wrong, doesn't have the expectations for this roster, yet, that he had for roster in 19-20.

 

[Predsanddead24]

To play devil's advocate, I see the two situations as wholly different.

Laviolette had his time to build a team, bring up prospects that were already in the system, and have trades made. The team was somewhat of a blank canvas with a propect pool and he and Poile did build a pretty good product but once the team started to drop off Laviolette had no answers on how to fix things and change the failing direction the team was going and supposedly refused to change his assistant coaches.

Hynes took over a team that was locked into some long-term contracts that were/are not team friendly and had basically no prospect pool. I think Poile still sees this as a work in progress and, right or wrong, doesn't have the expectations for this roster, yet, that he had for roster in 19-20.

I can sort of see the argument, but I'm not really sure I agree it seems to me that while there have been some constraints by the bigger contracts that Hynes has had his chance to shape the roster and the results have gotten worse as that has progressed.

To your point that I bolded this is exactly what I see with Hynes. I think Hynes did some things to improve the team the last couple seasons, but it seems like he has no answer to fixing the problems we've seen since the midpoint of last season. I also disagree that Poile doesn't expect much out of this roster. If that was the case I don't see us spending to the cap and making the McDonagh trade which may make us be forced to trade a younger player to accommodate that contract.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

i think 2 things can be true at the same time.

1) Hynes is a bad coach.

2) the roster constructed by poile that he invested big $$$ is never going to be able to get the results one would expect as their return on said investment $$$

…. i think we are up for another 2-3 years of mediocrity regardless of the coach. Hynes was the cherry on top of bad decisions by poile. I think poile’s time is nearing its end.

People have saying this like it is on the verge of happening since...well, I joined the board back in 2011. I don't see anything to suggest this is likely or that the owners want it, or will force it, to happen.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

I can sort of see the argument, but I'm not really sure I agree it seems to me that while there have been some constraints by the bigger contracts that Hynes has had his chance to shape the roster and the results have gotten worse as that has progressed.

To your point that I bolded this is exactly what I see with Hynes. I think Hynes did some things to improve the team the last couple seasons, but it seems like he has no answer to fixing the problems we've seen since the midpoint of last season. I also disagree that Poile doesn't expect much out of this roster. If that was the case I don't see us spending to the cap and making the McDonagh trade which may make us be forced to trade a younger player to accommodate that contract.

I'm not saying Poile has no expectations for this roster. I'm saying his expectations MAY not be as high as they were for that roster.

Laviolette's only ideas were, "more jam" and "more shots".

As far as Hynes having answers or not, it seems that he at least has ideas and is trying to implement changes. Are his ideas good or right and is he capable of getting the group to make the adjustments? I think he says the right things and seems to be trying the right things but whether he can get the players to adjust I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[herzausstein]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Someone posted a comparison of ekholm and chychrun on the main board thread ekholm available thread. Is it just me or is this favorable to ekholm?