Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - Looking to the offseason

[Porter Stoutheart]

Something else I was thinking last game... basically all 3 of Poile's off-season additions have worked out, haven't they? Well, as individuals, at least.

I like what Nino brings, He has come mostly as advertised. At least in terms of production. Maybe I remembered him being just a little more gritty/obnoxious when he played against us? But for the price and basically exactly the term we needed out of him, that was a Good Signing.

After a bit of a bumpy start to things, McDonagh has settled in pretty well. I think we all knew his contract was a bit of a premium but he seems to be on track now. I can imagine if the whole team was playing better, he'd considered a solid piece of the puzzle and pretty much the "veteran stabilizing element" we were looking for back there? For a "free" pickup, we can't complain?

And Lankinen has had some excellent games. If anything, maybe he could even be playing a bit more often? I know we lean on Saros... do we lean too much on him sometimes... ? 8 starts out of 36 is like a 64/18 split for a whole season, and I could imagine getting value out of Lankinen having a little more than just 18 starts. Anyway, he's an NHL goalie, whereas Rittich was a bit doubtful, and Ingram isn't necessarily proving himself to be one in Arizona. For $1.5M/1yr to lock this position down, it's another Good Signing.

And yet...

 

[triggrman]

Lankinen lately seems to be overplaying everything, to me, but still light years better than Rittich or Ingram.

 

[Armourboy]

I've got some bad news - we actually didn't trade Tolvy.

Got zilch for him which is freaking sad.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

So I have a hypothetical question. If Nashville decided to trade saros what would be the return. I think he’ll bring back at least a 1st and a top prospect but some people are saying that’s to much for a goalie which I disagreed with. Saros has been in the vezina conversation since taking over for rinne I wouldn’t expect anything less than a 1st and a top prospect

 

[Armourboy]

Lankinen lately seems to be overplaying everything, to me, but still light years better than Rittich or Ingram.

Well there is a reason he is a back up rather than a starter. I think for what he is getting paid and how he has played most of us wouldn't have much of a complaint. He comes off to me as a guy that is steady but isn't going to set the world on fire and for a back up imo that's pretty much all you can ask for.

So I have a hypothetical question. If Nashville decided to trade saros what would be the return. I think he’ll bring back at least a 1st and a top prospect but some people are saying that’s to much for a goalie which I disagreed with. Saros has been in the vezina conversation since taking over for rinne I wouldn’t expect anything less than a 1st and a top prospect

Nah he isn't going to bring that. You get one or the other but not both.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Well there is a reason he is a back up rather than a starter. I think for what he is getting paid and how he has played most of us wouldn't have much of a complaint. He comes off to me as a guy that is steady but isn't going to set the world on fire and for a back up imo that's pretty much all you can ask for.


Nah he isn't going to bring that. You get one or the other but not both.

Kuemper got traded for a 1st a 3rd and timmins and only had one year left. Saros has 2 after this year and is imo is alot better goalie

 

[Armourboy]

Kuemper got traded for a 1st a 3rd and timmins and only had one year left. Saros has 2 after this year and is imo is alot better goalie

Yeah and that first was low enough you might as well consider it a 2nd. Poile isn't trading Saros unless he plans on the team going through a complete and total rebuild because right now you can't replace him.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Yeah and that first was low enough you might as well consider it a 2nd. Poile isn't trading Saros unless he plans on the team going through a complete and total rebuild because right now you can't replace him.

That’s why I put hypothetically. I was just curious what saros’s value was not really if Poile would actually trade him or not

 

[Predsanddead24]

What other big goalie trades have there been that would be a comparable beyond Kuemper?

Schneider got a top ten pick ten years ago. Fleury got nothing after winning a Vezina but that was a strange situation. Can't think of any others off the top of my head

 

[Olderfan]

Lord, as usual, trying to have a rational conversation just goes to the extremes.

Laviolette came here and got great results out of an up and coming team and was more successful than any time in team history. As the team started to regress and there didn't seem to be any solutions coming from the coaching staff Poile pushed him to make changes to his staff that he was unwilling to make, at that point he was let go.

That situation is different from the make up of the team when Hynes entered the organization and the progress to this point so comparing the two isn't realistic. Poile is patient and clearly still feels they are in building mode and haven't gotten through the "competitive rebuild" just yet.

Trying to point out differences in the two situations doesn't have to be distilled into 'Lavi is a horrible coach and Hynes is great' type conversation. Or at least it shouldn't.

I admire Laviolette’s loyalty to a coach he brought here but isn’t that something like firing yourself? Whatever you think of him Poile was the boss and Laviolette said No.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

What other big goalie trades have there been that would be a comparable beyond Kuemper?

Schneider got a top ten pick ten years ago. Fleury got nothing after winning a Vezina but that was a strange situation. Can't think of any others off the top of my head

Usually goalie like saros don’t come available to be honest. Kuemper was only available because he played for Arizona. I think if saros became available teams he would bring back a 1st and high prospect but that’s just my opinion

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

So I have a hypothetical question. If Nashville decided to trade saros what would be the return. I think he’ll bring back at least a 1st and a top prospect but some people are saying that’s to much for a goalie which I disagreed with. Saros has been in the vezina conversation since taking over for rinne I wouldn’t expect anything less than a 1st and a top prospect

I think it's more a thing that is situational than something you can truly peg a fixed price on.

You have to find a team that is just crying out for that goalie savior, for one, and has no Cap constraints, internal options, or hopes that they could just land one in free agency instead of paying a premium in a trade. So maybe you need a contending team that is suffering an injury to their starter right before the deadline, and that starter is going UFA after or is ancient. Or if it's the off-season, AFTER the UFAs all got signed and some team was left without one. I don't know how often any of that happens.

But I don't think I'd waste much time "planning" for it. If it crops up some time and we are bad enough at that time... well, maybe listen to see just how crazy the offer might get. But I wouldn't count on it ever happening.

For sure I wouldn't even consider just a 1st and top prospect for Saros right now. He has been keeping us afloat for the last few years, and he's only 27. I would be a little more worried after next season ends, wondering what the future might hold as he heads toward his UFA season the year after. See where Askarov is at by then, see if Saros is still standing on his head every night, see if the team has turned things back around under a new coach or if we are truly heading into a full-scale rebuild. So that's all a subject not for this year or this off-season, but rather for Summer 2024 or Trade Deadline 2025 IMHO. Right now, I don't see a market that would give us the price we need back. Plus I don't think we have a handle on where our team is headed given the uncertainty behind the bench.

 

[glenngineer]

4 thoughts from the comments I've read over the last couple of days.

1. Hynes is not a good coach

2. Teams constructed by Poile will never win a Cup for lack of elite players up front

3. The Cup run was amazing. The offseason is what prevented us from moving forward and having another shot at a Cup. We lost an entire line of big-bodied forwards who were really good together and kept the puck deep in the offensive zone. Neal, Fisher and Wilson were playoff warriors. Neal and Wilson moved on. Fisher came back late in the next season but wasn't the same player he was from being away from the game. While their offensive production wasn't off the charts, the possession time was taxing on other teams, which allowed other lines to flourish. We never replaced those types of players.

4. We have no idea what the expectation is from the owners. Do they want us to make the playoffs year after year and if we go on a run, great and if we get knocked out in round 1, great? Is there truly a desire to win by the owners? If there isn't, we can sit here and argue all day long about what we would do or what our expectations are but at the end of the day, Poile answers to the owners and if he's doing what he's asked, then it's out of our control, whether we like it or not. The only way to effectively change things is to not go to games and buy merch. When it starts hitting the owner's wallets, then we will see a change. We have a new owner coming in soon and until then, I don't expect much to change.

 

[101st_fan]

4 thoughts from the comments I've read over the last couple of days.

1. Hynes is not a good coach

2. Teams constructed by Poile will never win a Cup for lack of elite players up front

3. The Cup run was amazing. The offseason is what prevented us from moving forward and having another shot at a Cup. We lost an entire line of big-bodied forwards who were really good together and kept the puck deep in the offensive zone. Neal, Fisher and Wilson were playoff warriors. Neal and Wilson moved on. Fisher came back late in the next season but wasn't the same player he was from being away from the game. While their offensive production wasn't off the charts, the possession time was taxing on other teams, which allowed other lines to flourish. We never replaced those types of players.

4. We have no idea what the expectation is from the owners. Do they want us to make the playoffs year after year and if we go on a run, great and if we get knocked out in round 1, great? Is there truly a desire to win by the owners? If there isn't, we can sit here and argue all day long about what we would do or what our expectations are but at the end of the day, Poile answers to the owners and if he's doing what he's asked, then it's out of our control, whether we like it or not. The only way to effectively change things is to not go to games and buy merch. When it starts hitting the owner's wallets, then we will see a change. We have a new owner coming in soon and until then, I don't expect much to change.

So you read your old posts?

 

[Der Jaeger]

Ekholm proposal from the Sabres:

2023 unprotected 1st
Josh Bloom F

Bloom is the Sabres best prospect with size. Poltapov is also available, little smaller than Bloom but plays a big forward's game.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Ekholm proposal from the Sabres:

2023 unprotected 1st
Josh Bloom F

Bloom is the Sabres best prospect with size. Poltapov is also available, little smaller than Bloom but plays a big forward's game.

I think Bloom has progressed well since being a late 3rd rounder. But still, this is offering a middle-1st and a player who we could essentially draft in the 2nd round about any time we felt the need... and I just don't see the Preds doing that without some "motivation".

Where by "motivation" I mean, you don't normally trade an important core veteran who still has term and is still performing well in his role, unless you have some reasons. The player has asked out, you have youngsters pushing to take his spot, you have Cap troubles, you want to rebuild, etc. I just don't see the Preds having the "motivation" to make this kind of trade involving Ekholm. I don't see any of these things applying.

It's why we talk more about possibly trading Fabbro. He's an impending RFA. His role has been reduced, but he may prefer to be paid more based on his previous larger role. The coach may not like him? I don't know, but at least there are somewhat plausible "motivations" for why Fabbro could conceivably be available.

 

[weeze]

Preds seem to be playing better as of late. Let's say the Preds go on a big run and jump into say the 3rd spot in the Central. As the middle of February comes calling, what does GMDP start to consider? If we become buyers, how do you add to the team without destroying what was created and got you to where you are? You would have to give up something to get something. What do you go out and get? Who do you give up? I know that is a month or so away but doesn't hurt to dream a little.

Now if they start to implode then you start thinking the opposite...

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Preds seem to be playing better as of late. Let's say the Preds go on a big run and jump into say the 3rd spot in the Central. As the middle of February comes calling, what does GMDP start to consider? If we become buyers, how do you add to the team without destroying what was created and got you to where you are? You would have to give up something to get something. What do you go out and get? Who do you give up? I know that is a month or so away but doesn't hurt to dream a little.

Now if they start to implode then you start thinking the opposite...

I'm not entirely convinced "the team is playing better as of late", vs. "Juuse Saros is playing better of late". We've been outshot in each of the last 3 wins, horrifyingly so against Carolina. But I guess one could argue that Saros is part of the team, sooooo...

Either way, I think the way our talent shakes out vs. the rest of the Conference, we're still going to be in the playoff race at the Trade Deadline, playing better or not, so indeed I do see Poile becoming a "mini-buyer" again. Like more on the level of his Gudbranson/Richardson types of little pickups that hardly matter, though.

I can't see him going "all-in" or trading away the team's 1st round pick in a year they host the draft, thankfully.

But I could definitely see value in picking up 1 more bottom-pairing D. If Borowiecki is truly done, anyway.

Past that, it's more what injuries we might have at the time?

 

[triggrman]

I'm not entirely convinced "the team is playing better as of late", vs. "Juuse Saros is playing better of late". We've been outshot in each of the last 3 wins, horrifyingly so against Carolina. But I guess one could argue that Saros is part of the team, sooooo...

Either way, I think the way our talent shakes out vs. the rest of the Conference, we're still going to be in the playoff race at the Trade Deadline, playing better or not, so indeed I do see Poile becoming a "mini-buyer" again. Like more on the level of his Gudbranson/Richardson types of little pickups that hardly matter, though.

I can't see him going "all-in" or trading away the team's 1st round pick in a year they host the draft, thankfully.

But I could definitely see value in picking up 1 more bottom-pairing D. If Borowiecki is truly done, anyway.

Past that, it's more what injuries we might have at the time?

Saros is playing much better which allows the offensive to play more aggressive so we've scored more goals.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Saros is playing much better which allows the offensive to play more aggressive so we've scored more goals.

This is sort of what happened last year and then we couldn't reign it back in when Saros went back to average. Hopefully we can figure out a balance this year.

 

[cool beans]

This is sort of what happened last year and then we couldn't reign it back in when Saros went back to average. Hopefully we can figure out a balance this year.

Well if the first half of the season was any indicator, probably not. But hopefully they can finish strong unlike last year

 

[Predigree]

This is sort of what happened last year and then we couldn't reign it back in when Saros went back to average. Hopefully we can figure out a balance this year.

Hmm, that sounds like its all Saros fault. like, if our D is bad, Saros is the problem. If our forwards cant by a goal, Saros is the Problem because they all have to save Jusse. You all know this is BS. The only thing Saros is guilty for me is, because of him we get another medicore draft pick. Sorry for my english guys, but i think you all know what i mean.

 

[triggrman]

Hmm, that sounds like its all Saros fault. like, if our D is bad, Saros is the problem. If our forwards cant by a goal, Saros is the Problem because they all have to save Jusse. You all know this is BS. The only thing Saros is guilty for me is, because of him we get another medicore draft pick. Sorry for my english guys, but i think you all know what i mean.

No one said that. I strongly believe that everyone plays looser and more creative when they know they have a wall behind them. That's been my experience on every level, playing or watching.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Hmm, that sounds like its all Saros fault. like, if our D is bad, Saros is the problem. If our forwards cant by a goal, Saros is the Problem because they all have to save Jusse. You all know this is BS. The only thing Saros is guilty for me is, because of him we get another medicore draft pick. Sorry for my english guys, but i think you all know what i mean.

Yes, it is Saros' fault that he cannot be in God Mode 100% of the time, right? I know what you mean. He played amazing the first half of last year too, which coincided with him garnering Vezina attention, and we were doing better in the standings. But also getting outshot and outplayed a fair bit by many metrics. Just we had the toughness/hitting going and Saros in God Mode to build up a lead in the standings.

Then both he and the team tailed off a little bit after that February break in the schedule, IIRC. I wouldn't say Saros was even "average" during the slide, he was still "good", just not "God Mode" as before. And then of course he was injured at the end and we really sucked then, everybody basically threw in the towel when it was apparent we were going to have to rely on Rittich/Ingram.

Saros was quite possibly our real MVP last season too IMHO... Josi got a lot of attention because him (and Forsberg, and Duchene) started piling up points while the team declined, but if that had been going on all year without the headstart that Saros gave us in the standings, we wouldn't have even made the playoffs. Not that I am blaming those guys for piling up points, either. It's just weird how it all happened. Why can't we have all the nice things all at the same time?

 

[AintLifeGrand]

Hmm, that sounds like its all Saros fault. like, if our D is bad, Saros is the problem. If our forwards cant by a goal, Saros is the Problem because they all have to save Jusse. You all know this is BS. The only thing Saros is guilty for me is, because of him we get another medicore draft pick. Sorry for my english guys, but i think you all know what i mean.

at least we have Lankinen tho …. I think hes starter material tbqh