Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - Looking to the offseason

[101st_fan]

Tolvanen passed on by over 20 teams when on the waiver wire and still hasn't taken the ice with the Kraken. Maybe waiting for a big home debut tomorrow.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

There is no fix. Until we can draft upper end talent at forward we will be a middle of the road team. You have to be able to find gems now and again. Guys like Robertson, Point and Kucherov exist outside of the first round. Poile has never hit on an elite forward in the draft, ever. You need those to win championships. We need to remove him and bring someone else in.

With that said, even if we bring a new guy in, we get some high first round picks and some luck in the later rounds, we're looking at 3-5 years before we're at that next level and by then, the core of this team will either be gone or on their last legs.

One of the most sobering thoughts is that if you look at the forwards that could be considered "productive" that we've both drafted and developed in "recent" years, NONE of them are still with the franchise. Smith is the only one that I think was even 30+ when we ditched him. Rads a contract/attitude/culture issue. Fiala a culture issue. Arvy an injury/culture issue. Wilson and Smith both let go/dumped.

Then you have an Ellis that was traded due to injuries, but also allegedly a culture issue. A Rem Pitlick, who was more productive than guys in our line up game in and out, but a fit/culture issue. Tolvanen because...well, it's still being argued over.

What I find particularly troubling is this team has seemed to have a LOT of issues with poor fit/buy-in/culture. On top of some of the homegrown named above, we also had issues with outside players like the Kostitsyns, or at least Andrei, we had Turris, we have a pouting McDonagh (who finally seemed to snap out of it and then promptly gets injured). For a team that seems to emphasize character and culture, we sure seem to have a lot of problems with it--and we are also seemingly inconsistent with it as well. I highly doubt we'd have been in on a higher upside guy like Evander Kane or Tony Deangelo, but we bring in a Ribeiro and have had a number of players struggling with off-ice issues like Watson, Ingram, McCarron, Tootoo.

What the heck is wrong with our talent identification/vetting process or internal systems/pipeline that we not only seem to NOT be able to properly develop our homegrown talent, but have numerous problems with ones that do pan out?

 

[Kat Predator]

Tolvanen passed on by over 20 teams when on the waiver wire and still hasn't taken the ice with the Kraken. Maybe waiting for a big home debut tomorrow.

The most likely guy he'd have replaced was Donato, who has been on a PPG pace since they picked up Tolvanen. Sprong was another option and he's also got a point in the same time period (16 points overall) and been playing well.

The Kraken just haven't needed him in the lineup with their bottom 6 contributing secondary scoring. The Kraken have 14 players with 10 or more points to the Predators 6. Apples and oranges.

 

[101st_fan]

The most likely guy he'd have replaced was Donato, who has been on a PPG pace since they picked up Tolvanen. Sprong was another option and he's also got a point in the same time period (16 points overall) and been playing well.

The Kraken just haven't needed him in the lineup with their bottom 6 contributing secondary scoring. The Kraken have 14 players with 10 or more points to the Predators 6. Apples and oranges.

Because all of the teams that passed on him are also scoring juggernauts. Donato was 0 for December until after Tolvanen was on their roster.

In reality he ends up in the same situation, a depth forward riding the press box who would be better served with playing time in the AHL rather than being the permascratch who might occasionally see bottom six minutes. He's a guy with a great release but streaky when it comes to hitting his spots and scoring goals. He was bypassed by teams that had the open roster spots, cap space, and ability to put him in the lineup immediately only to get claimed as a depth piece.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Because all of the teams that passed on him are also scoring juggernauts. Donato was 0 for December until after Tolvanen was on their roster.

In reality he ends up in the same situation, a depth forward riding the press box who would be better served with playing time in the AHL rather than being the permascratch who might occasionally see bottom six minutes. He's a guy with a great release but streaky when it comes to hitting his spots and scoring goals. He was bypassed by teams that had the open roster spots, cap space, and ability to put him in the lineup immediately only to get claimed as a depth piece.

Over/under he's back on waivers before the 1st (even with the roster freeze)?

 

[EXTRAS]

Really interested to see what jeannot gets on his next contract

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Really interested to see what jeannot gets on his next contract

He's going to be a really interesting case if his productivity doesn't turn around this season. He was torching the AHL and scoring as soon as he came up with us in the Covid year, then 24 goals last year. Having 2 seasons in a row with scoring says to me that last year wasn't just a complete one-off fluke?

But he went cold at some point near the end of the year last year. No goals in the last 10 games, 15 games, 1g/0a from April on. No goals in the playoffs. So you could say it goes back to last year also.

He's on pace for what, 7 or 8 this year?

I don't see any huge change in other simple stats. He has 44 shots in 30 games (1.47 s/g). He had 124 in 81 (1.53 s/g) last year. He's not a volume shooter, and this says nothing of the quality of shots, but at least in the most basic sense he's getting the same number, and that wasn't dramatically different during his cold stretch at the end of last year either.

His TOI this year is down a smidgin to from 15:59 to 15:31. But it was up to 16:33 during last year's 15 game cold stretch. His special teams were 0:30PP / 2:33SH vs. 0:59PP / 2:15SH this season... so if anything a slight uptick in PP time!

And to top it all off, his physical game hasn't changed either! Hits/60 was 14.73 last year, and 14.56 this year! He's playing essentially the exact same level of physical game as before.

My eye test doesn't really find much different about him as a player. I guess as a whole team I'm not sure we're springing odd man rushes or scoring chances like we were?

But back to the contract side of things, it's definitely a conundrum. Because Jeannot would be such a rare and valuable commodity if he DID starting scoring again, he might not want to lock in at a lower AAV. But if you sign him to a shorter term deal, then he can be a UFA when it expires, and other teams will offer him the moon.

I'm not expecting we'll get to see him with a new coach this year, alas, to evaluate the potential for a whole-team turnaround bringing his production back in line. That's what I would most wish for prior to offering a new contract.

But ok, if we're not going to have that opportunity... I basically go back to my posts from before and offer him the Sissons deal. It's still $20M, and a lot of security. Because I think that he, like Sissons, is a very solid and valuable bottom-6 forward, even if they don't score. I still want those elements on my team enough to pay what might seem like a "premium" price to keep the ones I like. But I am not sure if last year's exciting numbers would mean he's not willing to "settle" for just that and would rather bet on himself scoring again?

 

[LCPreds]

The most likely guy he'd have replaced was Donato, who has been on a PPG pace since they picked up Tolvanen. Sprong was another option and he's also got a point in the same time period (16 points overall) and been playing well.

The Kraken just haven't needed him in the lineup with their bottom 6 contributing secondary scoring. The Kraken have 14 players with 10 or more points to the Predators 6. Apples and oranges.

Donato will not go away quietly (nice pass of course):

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Donato will not go away quietly (nice pass of course):

Kind of a win-win for the Kraken. If having Tolvanen lurking off-stage is inspiring Donato or Geekie or whoever to keep playing well, then it is still great for them.

Not so great for Tolvanen himself, but on the bright side he's not in Milwaukee, so there's that.

 

[Predsanddead24]

He's going to be a really interesting case if his productivity doesn't turn around this season. He was torching the AHL and scoring as soon as he came up with us in the Covid year, then 24 goals last year. Having 2 seasons in a row with scoring says to me that last year wasn't just a complete one-off fluke?

But he went cold at some point near the end of the year last year. No goals in the last 10 games, 15 games, 1g/0a from April on. No goals in the playoffs. So you could say it goes back to last year also.

He's on pace for what, 7 or 8 this year?

I don't see any huge change in other simple stats. He has 44 shots in 30 games (1.47 s/g). He had 124 in 81 (1.53 s/g) last year. He's not a volume shooter, and this says nothing of the quality of shots, but at least in the most basic sense he's getting the same number, and that wasn't dramatically different during his cold stretch at the end of last year either.

His TOI this year is down a smidgin to from 15:59 to 15:31. But it was up to 16:33 during last year's 15 game cold stretch. His special teams were 0:30PP / 2:33SH vs. 0:59PP / 2:15SH this season... so if anything a slight uptick in PP time!

And to top it all off, his physical game hasn't changed either! Hits/60 was 14.73 last year, and 14.56 this year! He's playing essentially the exact same level of physical game as before.

My eye test doesn't really find much different about him as a player. I guess as a whole team I'm not sure we're springing odd man rushes or scoring chances like we were?

But back to the contract side of things, it's definitely a conundrum. Because Jeannot would be such a rare and valuable commodity if he DID starting scoring again, he might not want to lock in at a lower AAV. But if you sign him to a shorter term deal, then he can be a UFA when it expires, and other teams will offer him the moon.

I'm not expecting we'll get to see him with a new coach this year, alas, to evaluate the potential for a whole-team turnaround bringing his production back in line. That's what I would most wish for prior to offering a new contract.

But ok, if we're not going to have that opportunity... I basically go back to my posts from before and offer him the Sissons deal. It's still $20M, and a lot of security. Because I think that he, like Sissons, is a very solid and valuable bottom-6 forward, even if they don't score. I still want those elements on my team enough to pay what might seem like a "premium" price to keep the ones I like. But I am not sure if last year's exciting numbers would mean he's not willing to "settle" for just that and would rather bet on himself scoring again?

Jeannot's shooting percentage was ridiculously high the last two seasons (close to 20%) and has dropped a lot this year (6.8%). That pretty much explains the difference given that as you pointed out everything else isn't that different. I guess you could dig and see if maybe he's getting lower quality shots and that's what has caused the drop in goals or it could be he's just not finishing as effectively. Like you said though eye test wise I don't think he is playing all that different from last year though, but maybe I'm wrong.

 

[herzausstein]

Jeannots drop in sh% explains part of his production drop. The failure of the rest of his linemates (and team as a whole) explains the other half. Jeannot should be a 30ish point player if the team isnt being complete dog buns. Im hoping we can get him locked up for somewhere in the 2.0 to 2.5 range

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Jeannots drop in sh% explains part of his production drop. The failure of the rest of his linemates (and team as a whole) explains the other half. Jeannot should be a 30ish point player if the team isnt being complete dog buns. Im hoping we can get him locked up for somewhere in the 2.0 to 2.5 range

He isn't finishing, which I guess is the same as Sh% difference. I feel like he's hammered the post a half dozen times this year already and several "almost tips".

 

[nine_inch_fang]

He's playing slower for sure. He may be getting his stats in hits but he hasn't been nearly as effective, and it's not that he's not fighting. His strength on his skates and the puck hasn't been as consistent. Opponents know what to expect and are loading up to defend him, he'll have to step it up to continue having the kind of success he had the first part of last season at the NHL level.

 

[Olderfan]

I know stats tell a story worth listening to and Jeannot’s not scoring and that hurts. But my observation simply by watching him play is that he’s not the same spirited kid of most of last year. His compete level was sky high last year; this year he looks off, even standing around waiting on faceoffs and on the bench. Is it just me or is his countenance different?

 

[Predation]

I know stats tell a story worth listening to and Jeannot’s not scoring and that hurts. But my observation simply by watching him play is that he’s not the same spirited kid of most of last year. His compete level was sky high last year; this year he looks off, even standing around waiting on faceoffs and on the bench. Is it just me or is his countenance different?

I’ve wondered the same thing. Thought maybe it was frustration from not scoring as much.

 

[CRay]

I know stats tell a story worth listening to and Jeannot’s not scoring and that hurts. But my observation simply by watching him play is that he’s not the same spirited kid of most of last year. His compete level was sky high last year; this year he looks off, even standing around waiting on faceoffs and on the bench. Is it just me or is his countenance different?

I am sure he is almost as frustrated as we are.
When he was producing the herd was smothering on the forecheck getting turnovers and scoring chances off that. They caught lightning in a bottle with that line and might be a case of the line being greater than the sum of the parts. With the flashes he showed you had to give him a shot at the top 6 but maybe that just isnt in the cards, He does still provide value.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

I know stats tell a story worth listening to and Jeannot’s not scoring and that hurts. But my observation simply by watching him play is that he’s not the same spirited kid of most of last year. His compete level was sky high last year; this year he looks off, even standing around waiting on faceoffs and on the bench. Is it just me or is his countenance different?

Most here will say it's the coach or the system (I guess that could be) but I have a feeling it's him trying to find a happy medium to his game. I haven't looked but I'd assume his PIMs are way down this year.

That frenetic playing style wasn't sustainable for him last season and created too many fights, now in his sophomore year he's struggling the find the pace and intensity that will bring him points while avoiding minor and major penalties.

 

[Scoresberg]

Lafreniere has to be in the outs in NY. Jeannot/Trenin + something?

 

[AnalogKid]

Lafreniere has to be in the outs in NY. Jeannot/Trenin + something?

If he sucks in New York he would REALLY suck here.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If he sucks in New York he would REALLY suck here.

Yeah I don't follow his situation at all exactly, but his numbers are trending below Daigle and Yakupov, right? That's not the greatest look for a 1st overall pick, even if one argues extenuating circumstances. There are ALWAYS extenuating circumstances. I wouldn't be keen to risk much on him in general, but if Hynes is still our coach then really there would be no point whatsoever in even thinking about it.

 

[Kat Predator]

Yeah I don't follow his situation at all exactly, but his numbers are trending below Daigle and Yakupov, right? That's not the greatest look for a 1st overall pick, even if one argues extenuating circumstances. There are ALWAYS extenuating circumstances. I wouldn't be keen to risk much on him in general, but if Hynes is still our coach then really there would be no point whatsoever in even thinking about it.

It's also a hole in the bottom of the boat that getting the #1 overall pick makes a team a contender.

 

[Scoresberg]

Jeannot for Knies + 2024 2nd.

I think that's an offer that makes sense. Poile gets his prospect and not a 1st rounder, and it just so happens to be a prospect we're not having in our pool.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Jeannot for Knies + 2024 2nd.

I think that's an offer that makes sense. Poile gets his prospect and not a 1st rounder, and it just so happens to be a prospect we're not having in our pool.

My overwhelming desire to say "hell no" to any Leafs (or Habs) products, since all of them are hyped and all of them end up disappointing, is conflicting with my knowledge that you actually follow these players. Still think the former is winning out.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Jeannot for Knies + 2024 2nd.

I think that's an offer that makes sense. Poile gets his prospect and not a 1st rounder, and it just so happens to be a prospect we're not having in our pool.

I would pass on that. Even if Jeannot wants $5M and I decide on trading him, I would shop around with confidence that I could get more. That 2nd is almost nothing, and there’s no guarantee Knies will ever come close to Jeannot.

Knies, a 1st, and something else on D would be my ask. And if they didn’t like it, I’d be very fine with walking away.

 

[Byrddog]

Jeannot for Knies + 2024 2nd.

I think that's an offer that makes sense. Poile gets his prospect and not a 1st rounder, and it just so happens to be a prospect we're not having in our pool.

At this point in time the prospect pool can not be more important. It’s pretty clear the cupboard is bare. When discussion here is on resigning a guy that is being looked at having 30 points earlier in this thread fan expectations are low. Too low this team has plenty of guys In that 30 point bottom six mix. Expectations are too low for top 6 as well a 40 point guy has always been the watermark in Bashville for top 6. And while you need a couple 40 point guys in the top 6 you can not compete when they are your offense elite. If each of your top line is not realistic 60 point and higher the team is going to struggle. AHL production is not going to be equal to NHL , history for all players reflect 50 to 70% lower production. . Currently there is no aspect to this team that is strong. From the GM to the garbage man. The pressing question is how to rebuild the team now. It is no longer plausible that you can build around this core. As was pointed out where the team stood when Lavi was fired despite a 20 honeymoon period under Hynes the team has continued to sink and are now what 25th in the league? This has not happened overnight the last five season really have seen competitive ability decline despite backing into the playoff being the least of the ugly.

The difficult part is ownership does not have the stomach to make change at the top where the stagnation is oozing. The recruiting and talent development team has been the biggest waste of money throughout the franchise history. Zero accountability there. Drafting had been a complete joke. Poiles patented best player available instead of drafting to need. Want a example drafting Jones who dropped from his projected number two pick by teams that drafted to the need of the team. Poile had the chance to pass on Jones and land Monahan or Barzal both impactful players. Monahan would have prevented the Johansen trade and Barzal would have been the best scoring prospect the team had drafted. This must be fixed followed by the development staff because they could have ruined either Barzal or Monahan before any of the coaches got hold of them. In the early years this was a blue collar hard working team that Poile/Lavi attempted to morph into a high octane scoring team . Now we have no idea what the team is, Hynes some days wants the high octane team and other days wants the old Trotz blue collar responsible team. The core seems confused at best and the support and role layers do not have the talent to switch from one philosophy to the other readily. So from day to day they fail to make the changes of the bi-polar leadership from the front office to behind the bench and it is painful to watch.