Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - Looking to the offseason

[Armourboy]

I guess my view of sissons if that more of a 4th liner than a 3rd liner. Nearly 3 million in cap for a 4th liner is pretty excessive while perfectly acceptable for a 3rd liner. Sissons 25-30 points is probably high enough to be considered 3rd liner production and he does bring good defensive play and faceoff ability (other than the last 2 games). I just envision sissons anchoring a 4th line thats defensive in nature vs whatever hynes is trying to do with him now. And every penny counts... remember we just waived tolvanen bc of a couple hundred thousand .

On defense, our defense group of josi, ekholm, McDonagh is 32, 32, and 33. I suspect McDonagh will age the least gracefully due to playstyle and having alot of miles on him (almost 1000 games played). I guess im afraid to get stuck with some untradeable contract as their play inevitably declines while we are in a point of transition.

Still you may be right that a new coach may be the remedy the team needs.

They are already untradeable, at least with how the cap is atm. If you do trade them you are going to end up taking back someone in the same spot or worse or you are going to pay a team to take them. Basically anyone that isn't cheap atm or has multiple years is probably not going anywhere.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I guess my view of sissons if that more of a 4th liner than a 3rd liner. Nearly 3 million in cap for a 4th liner is pretty excessive while perfectly acceptable for a 3rd liner. Sissons 25-30 points is probably high enough to be considered 3rd liner production and he does bring good defensive play and faceoff ability (other than the last 2 games). I just envision sissons anchoring a 4th line thats defensive in nature vs whatever hynes is trying to do with him now. And every penny counts... remember we just waived tolvanen bc of a couple hundred thousand .

On defense, our defense group of josi, ekholm, McDonagh is 32, 32, and 33. I suspect McDonagh will age the least gracefully due to playstyle and having alot of miles on him (almost 1000 games played). I guess im afraid to get stuck with some untradeable contract as their play inevitably declines while we are in a point of transition.

Still you may be right that a new coach may be the remedy the team needs.

I’m not sure any of our big 3 D are moveable even at this point. Josi because of his NMC and Ekholm and McDonagh because of their contracts.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Honestly, wait for the deals to come to me, profit the best I can, and see what's what it TDL

 

[triggrman]

Honestly, wait for the deals to come to me, profit the best I can, and see what's what it TDL

I’m not sure any of our big 3 D are moveable even at this point. Josi because of his NMC and Ekholm and McDonagh because of their contracts.

Ekholm absolutely has value

 

[Olderfan]

Ekholm absolutely has value

People are going to wonder about Ekholm till he’s old and slow, then say “See, I told you!”. Don’t ever forget he’s been a Pred a long time now and always been very good, never the reason Preds have underperformed. When you say D, I think Ekholm. Still good after all these years. Value? Heck, yeah!

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

People are going to wonder about Ekholm till he’s old and slow, then say “See, I told you!”. Don’t ever forget he’s been a Pred a long time now and always been very good, never the reason Preds have underperformed. When you say D, I think Ekholm. Still good after all these years. Value? Heck, yeah!

There’s “value”… as in he’s still a good player and valuable to us on the ice. And then there’s “trade value”… in a league where 20 teams are using LTIR and only 3 teams in the entire league have enough Cap space to add Ekholm’s contract. And those teams are rebuilding and not looking for a veteran defenseman so the only way you could trade him to one of those teams is at negative value with a 1st round pick attached.

Which may seem crazy, but it is what it is. The league is massively Cap-locked right now, so it makes for trade values that are totally different than on-ice values.

 

[Armourboy]

Ekholm absolutely has value

He does but finding a team to take his cap would be pretty rough. It would essentially require you to take back a bad contract that is actually bad. If you could get additional value for that it might not be the worst thing but with as screwed up as things are who knows if you would.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

There might be quite a few "value" contracts to be had on the UFA market this summer, if the Cap freeze really does leave a number of UFAs out in the cold. If you did happen to be a team with a little space this summer, you might make out like bandits.

It might even make it worth contemplating what you could do via not qualifying RFAs or buying out pricey veterans to create Cap space that could be used at a better bargain return on investment. If you really believed the market might go that way. Poile got Nino and Lankinen at pretty good prices last year, and Kubalik is paying off for Detroit, but those kinds of savings might pale in comparison to the bargains available this summer if the Cap issues really do pan out the way some are fearing.

Trading guys might not be feasible. But there might be other little ways a GM could seek a retooling edge.


And another thing GMs will have to consider is whether they can leverage salary retentions. I know our GM really doesn't like any of this fancy stuff with retentions, buyouts, or even using LTIR as we've recently seen. It's nice to think you can budget a roster, leave a cushion to cover injuries, and just live within that simplistic framework. But it's a different world out there for most of the rest of the teams in the league. And if you can't make straightforward hockey trades anymore, and you have practically the whole league spending to the Cap... you might need to dig a little deeper in the toolbox.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Regarding Ekholm we saw a pretty similar guy go on the market in McDonagh last offseason and he got essentially nothing (although Tampa seemed to think Myers had at least decent value since they re-signed him). Ekholm has one less year on his contract, a slightly lower AAV, and less games played so less wear and tear, but I don't really see him getting much of a return. Or at least a return to make it worth moving him.

Unfortunately I really don't think we have much choice but to try and ride it out for the next few seasons and hope we can pull it together somehow (hopefully under a new coach). The difficult decision is whether you hold onto the older RFAs like Carrier, Jeannot, and Fabbro. They're good players you don't want to lose but good players under team control are the ones who get the most value.

 

[BigFatCat999]

I have to interject because....well I am me. Also I think out loud. I bounce notions off others and see what their ideas are. Honestly, I respect your opinions. When y'all act as a mob my brain goes into mathematical overdrive.

If the cap is only going up by a 1million. (I expect 1.50-2) My mind tells me the high value forwards the Preds are going to have to eat half.

and compliance buyouts usually (usually per history) does not effect the cap. It's, 'here's your cash, we lose cap, you get money, we can't resign you but find another team to double pay.'

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

A core long-term concern is the Cap itself. Everyone assumed, pre-Covid, the Cap would always go up. Covid and the lockdowns, followed by the fan restrictions (vax, masks) took thousands of people out of the habit of going to games. Just like church and office work, people got used to staying home. Couple that with inflation, interest rates and ticket prices, league revenue may not go up very much for years to come.

With so many teams tied up in long term contracts, the flat Cap clogs up player movement. We are Exhibit A. All we can hope for is our present roster magically starts playing better. I'm a fan of firing Hynes as a means of catching lightning in a bottle.

I know many posters want a real rebuild (not the fake news "competitive rebuild"). May be our long-term answer but this franchise can't handle 3 or more years of non-playoff hockey. Attendance will tank and we'll start bleeding money unless we don't sign our RFA's and just bring up $750K AHLers.

 

[triggrman]

McDonagh is tradeable even with his cap.

Johansen while overpaid is more valuable to us as a player than dead cap space, same with Duchene and even Granlund. They’re not going anywhere. That’s why we have to have a coaching change. Someone that knows how to use young talent

 

[Predsanddead24]

A core long-term concern is the Cap itself. Everyone assumed, pre-Covid, the Cap would always go up. Covid and the lockdowns, followed by the fan restrictions (vax, masks) took thousands of people out of the habit of going to games. Just like church and office work, people got used to staying home. Couple that with inflation, interest rates and ticket prices, league revenue may not go up very much for years to come.

With so many teams tied up in long term contracts, the flat Cap clogs up player movement. We are Exhibit A. All we can hope for is our present roster magically starts playing better. I'm a fan of firing Hynes as a means of catching lightning in a bottle.

I know many posters want a real rebuild (not the fake news "competitive rebuild"). May be our long-term answer but this franchise can't handle 3 or more years of non-playoff hockey. Attendance will tank and we'll start bleeding money unless we don't sign our RFA's and just bring up $750K AHLers.

The league is generating record revenues though. It's just that they have to make up for the revenue loss from the Covid seasons before the cap starts to rise to reflect that. In person attendance may be down but that was a phenomena pre-Covid too. The bigger TV deal and incessant ads everywhere seem to be making up for the revenue loss from declining attendance.

As far as the Preds money situation its tough to know for sure, but we're far better off than we were the last time the team was bad. Haslam as the majority owner will definitely change things but he for sure has deeper pockets than our previous owners so that has to help. Nashville and Broadway is going to continue to be booming as a tourist destination so that will help drive attendance even if the Preds are down.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

McDonagh is tradeable even with his cap.

Well, by that token every player is tradeable... if you are willing to give up enough to entice another team to take him, or are willing to take an even yuckier contract back.

We were the only team willing to take McDonagh even for free last summer. I don't think either his value or the market have improved since then (both have only gotten worse).

 

[BigFatCat999]

There is a nuclear option which NONE of you would like and it would be a 'What would Arizona do?' type deal.

Trade Saros and Lanky. Both have the highest trade value and would get the most BUT trade for the other team's backup.

(please note I am on team, LEAVE IT THE f*** ALONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

 

[Adz]

I haven't taken time to read all the comments but honestly right now I think an armchair would probably be about as effective. Still, I'm not a hockey mind and I don't know what's going on behind the scenes but losing Tolvanen to waivers seems ill advised.

 

[Armourboy]

This ownership group so far has been unwilling to tank like an Arizona, and I don't see that changing. Now once Haslam is in charge you may see some things change but I doubt he is buying into the Preds to throw money out the window so who knows if that will change either.

 

[Predsanddead24]

This ownership group so far has been unwilling to tank like an Arizona, and I don't see that changing. Now once Haslam is in charge you may see some things change but I doubt he is buying into the Preds to throw money out the window so who knows if that will change either.

The Browns are experts at tanking (although mostly unintentionally) so maybe it runs in the Haslam family.

 

[Byrddog]

I haven't taken time to read all the comments but honestly right now I think an armchair would probably be about as effective. Still, I'm not a hockey mind and I don't know what's going on behind the scenes but losing Tolvanen to waivers seems ill advised.

On the other side if I counted correctly 24 teams had the opportunity to pick Tolvanen up including the low budget teams and they passed him down. To be honest he nearly cleared waivers. If he had cleared that would have been a bigger black eye to the player. We either value him too much as fans or the league has not been impressed .

 

[Adz]

On the other side if I counted correctly 24 teams had the opportunity to pick Tolvanen up including the low budget teams and they passed him down. To be honest he nearly cleared waivers. If he had cleared that would have been a bigger black eye to the player. We either value him too much as fans or the league has not been impressed .

I wouldn't be impressed with him, either, at the moment. The problem to me was more that he was given away rather than packaged with another player or 12 for some scoring prowess. Even a dollar is better than free. I do realize that his salary was taken off the books in the process so there's that.

 

[EXTRAS]

Any guesses on the next jeannot contract? After his rookie season I figured he would get PAID but he's been a non-factor offensively this season so now not really too sure

 

[Armourboy]

Any guesses on the next jeannot contract? After his rookie season I figured he would get PAID but he's been a non-factor offensively this season so now not really too sure

I think a lot of it will come down to how many years he is willing to take or wants vs pay vs how confident they are in him.

If things don't pick up I'm going to guess somewhere around 2 million and it would be for a couple of years. Poile does like to take gambles though so he might be willing to give him the Sissons contract as Porter has suggested.

 

[ShagDaddy]

Braden Gall and Alex Daugherty talked about Tolvanen on the latest Gold Standard podcast. Was an interesting take.

 

[glenngineer]

There is no fix. Until we can draft upper end talent at forward we will be a middle of the road team. You have to be able to find gems now and again. Guys like Robertson, Point and Kucherov exist outside of the first round. Poile has never hit on an elite forward in the draft, ever. You need those to win championships. We need to remove him and bring someone else in.

With that said, even if we bring a new guy in, we get some high first round picks and some luck in the later rounds, we're looking at 3-5 years before we're at that next level and by then, the core of this team will either be gone or on their last legs.

 

[Olderfan]

There’s “value”… as in he’s still a good player and valuable to us on the ice. And then there’s “trade value”… in a league where 20 teams are using LTIR and only 3 teams in the entire league have enough Cap space to add Ekholm’s contract. And those teams are rebuilding and not looking for a veteran defenseman so the only way you could trade him to one of those teams is at negative value with a 1st round pick attached.

Which may seem crazy, but it is what it is. The league is massively Cap-locked right now, so it makes for trade values that are totally different than on-ice values.

I contend everybody is looking for an Ekholm(well, everybody may be a little strong but a lot of teams). And cap notwithstanding, they’d make it work! He’s that good and on ice for Preds he is of significant value. Like you said.