Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - Looking to the offseason

[triggrman]

The mistake here is classifying Sissons as a "4th liner", whereas he shakes out league-wide more as a 3rd liner. And plenty of teams pay that much for 3rd liners. But we also pay $5M and $8M for players whose performance shake out as 3rd liners. So the payroll discrepancy is actually elsewhere in our lineup.

Oh no I fully agree but he's being used as a 4th liner. Much like Fabbro is more than a 3rd pairing defender, that's what he is here.

 

[triggrman]

I like sissons for his versatility and play. I dont like sissons for his caphit because hes ideally on the 4th line and near 3M for a single 4th liner is alot when you are a cap team in need of fixing the top 6.

For all the talk about the top 6 not performing, Forsberg and Duchene are currentky producing at career average rates in goals and slightly above in assists. Granlund is having his 2nd most productive season as a Predator (which is still below average for a top 6 forward). Nino is producing his standard 40ish point pace. That leaves Joey and one of the young centers. Young centers are doing good for their pay but producing more like a middle 6 than top 6. Joey is back to a 42 point pace where hes been around most of Hynes' tenure as coach.

All that to say, none of the top 6 are really performing beyond or below what we shouldve expected production wise. Joey and Granlund are performing like they have every season under hynes outside of last years resurgence while nino, duchene, and forsberg are performing per their career norms. Joey is the only one who's production has steeply declined since he got his lastest contract and his drop heavily correlates with Hynes as head coach so i have to wonder if theres more to it (but he also looks slower out there).

The top 6 as constructed just isnt good enough to carry the team. We dont have a mcdavid or draisaitl thats going to routinely put up monster numbers. We either need better top 6 forwards and push others down or more scoring from the bottom 6 to help lift team production up.

Granlund's numbers and Granlund's play don't seem to match. I think any skilled forward giving his minutes and linemates would produce at similar rates or better.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Oh no I fully agree but he's being used as a 4th liner. Much like Fabbro is more than a 3rd pairing defender, that's what he is here.

I can't say I even know what he's being used as... everything from 1st line RW to 4th liner. But then everything about that (and Fabbro) goes back to the coach IMO, and I try to ignore that problem when it comes to the player evaluations.

(Whereas: Granlund and Johansen have fully had their big top-6 icetime and PP time, so even if the coach sucks, they aren't living up to their contracts despite whatever random coaching antics are thrown on top of their portfolios).

 

[AintLifeGrand]

Wow, that's like a fantasy league!

my guy 90 pts is the new 50 pts

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I don't like that Trenin and Fabbro seemed to have ended up in the doghouse, but I think this is the reality. Whether you call Sissons a 3rd or 4th liner isn't really relevant, the bottom line is he is performing at least on par with Granlund and Johansen in our current lineup, and in that scenario it's tough to dump on the guy who is actually doing what was expected of him vs. the two guys who really aren't.

We're kind of lucky atm in that our prospect pipeline has taken a nice step forward, so we might be able to ride through whatever mistakes management makes in terms of moving out "doghouse" players. So if Trenin and/or Fabbro are added to the pile with Tolvanen, it's not going to be anything that cripples us. It will just be more along the lines of an annoyance. But still, I don't mind complaining ad nauseum here about "annoyances". That's what this place should be for!

I think Trenin and Fabbro will be guys that have much better careers away from us if they are moved.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think Trenin and Fabbro will be guys that have much better careers away from us if they are moved.

Oh they 100% will, I am sure of that. They will be the next Tolvanen/Fiala watchlist players, I have no doubt. Which of course, sucks all the more for us.

 

[herzausstein]

Granlund's numbers and Granlund's play don't seem to match. I think any skilled forward giving his minutes and linemates would produce at similar rates or better.

Yeh normally you give your heaviest TOI to your best producers. Granlund TOI is actually down by almost 1:40 per game from last season. I cant recall Granlunds usage but we mainly used him as a center last season. Did we use him as a center any other seasons as well? Maybe his production in Nashville is more tied to his role in the line. Either way youd think hed produce more but like Joey they both have struggled to produce here under hynes (except last season)

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Yeh normally you give your heaviest TOI to your best producers. Granlund TOI is actually down by almost 1:40 per game from last season. I cant recall Granlunds usage but we mainly used him as a center last season. Did we use him as a center any other seasons as well? Maybe his production in Nashville is more tied to his role in the line. Either way youd think hed produce more but like Joey they both have struggled to produce here under hynes (except last season)

I don't even mind Granlund or Joey as players. They are "ok". Last year we couldn't find a proper #1 center, and to be fair Granlund stepped up admirably and he hustled and tried his best and had a great season. And Joey got great production from the "bumper" spot on the PP. They both did great last season.

I would say however that they were extremely "complementary" to all that happened last season. Forsberg/Duchene/Josi drove the offence (especially late in the season) and the "identity/physicality+Saros" drove the success early in the season. None of which was tied to Granlund or Joey. They were more beneficiaries than catalysts.

 

[Scoresberg]

I think Trenin and Fabbro will be guys that have much better careers away from us if they are moved.

Trenin especially is going to pop off. Nichuksin-esque.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Trenin especially is going to pop off. Nichuksin-esque.

Ok, that exceeds my expectation by a lot. Nichuskin became almost a PPG player on a $6M long-term contract. I love Trenin and feel like he has more to show than he has thus far, but I don't see that.

 

[glenngineer]

Yeh normally you give your heaviest TOI to your best producers. Granlund TOI is actually down by almost 1:40 per game from last season. I cant recall Granlunds usage but we mainly used him as a center last season. Did we use him as a center any other seasons as well? Maybe his production in Nashville is more tied to his role in the line. Either way youd think hed produce more but like Joey they both have struggled to produce here under hynes (except last season)

PK time is down

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Trenin especially is going to pop off. Nichuksin-esque.

I think he gets overshadowed by #84 yet has the ability to be a much better player. Really hope we don't move him.

 

[Scoresberg]

Ok, that exceeds my expectation by a lot. Nichuskin became almost a PPG player on a $6M long-term contract. I love Trenin and feel like he has more to show than he has thus far, but I don't see that.

Nichuskin scored 0 goals in his draft+6 season. Nobody saw him breaking out like this, either.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Nichuskin scored 0 goals in his draft+6 season. Nobody saw him breaking out like this, either.

I will say though as a somewhat forced-by-family closet Dallas follower... as a #10 overall pick, and after his great rookie showing and all that subsequently happened with Nichushkin from the Dallas coaching staff... he DID have some much higher upside perceived. It still took him awhile to even get there with Colorado. But from Day One, he was kind of looked at from a vastly different perspective than Trenin?

And I like Trenin a lot. But if he ever scores 20 goals, I'll be surprised. His main value is in being soooo surprisingly strong, he can level anybody, fight anybody, and still "chip in" on offense. That's still very good. I feel also that he hasn't necessarily seemed as motivated or aggressive on those fronts this season with us... possibly a fallout from the contract disputes. But if he got fully happy with his organization like he might not be with us... do you think he can really score more than 20 goals?

 

[Kat Predator]

Yeh normally you give your heaviest TOI to your best producers. Granlund TOI is actually down by almost 1:40 per game from last season. I cant recall Granlunds usage but we mainly used him as a center last season. Did we use him as a center any other seasons as well? Maybe his production in Nashville is more tied to his role in the line. Either way youd think hed produce more but like Joey they both have struggled to produce here under hynes (except last season)

Isn't Granlund still the top TOI forward this year?

He's out there plenty, which makes me wonder what Hynes would do if he was dealt.

[Ed: I checked and he is indeed leading the team in ATOI for forwards. Duchene is 2nd.]

 

[cool beans]

Isn't Granlund still the top TOI forward this year?

He's out there plenty, which makes me wonder what Hynes would do if he was dealt.

Hynes can’t adapt. So he’d probably just mix lines until he was fired. Every other shift, new combinations.

Trenin especially is going to pop off. Nichuksin-esque.

My thoughts exactly. He’s a top 9 staple. He quietly and consistently plays harder than anyone else on the team.

 

[Armourboy]

Hynes rides Granlund just like he did Hall in New Jersey, problem is Granlund wasn't as dynamic as Hall was in those years. Hynes does less with more than maybe any coach in the league.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Isn't Granlund still the top TOI forward this year?

He's out there plenty, which makes me wonder what Hynes would do if he was dealt.

[Ed: I checked and he is indeed leading the team in ATOI for forwards. Duchene is 2nd.]

Yes, and a further fun fact is that he is 2nd last in Pts/60 5on5 and dead last in Goals/60. Yes, behind such luminaries as Cole Smith and far far behind such overpaid 4th liners as Colton Sissons.

 

[Kat Predator]

Yes, and a further fun fact is that he is 2nd last in Pts/60 5on5 and dead last in Goals/60. Yes, behind such luminaries as Cole Smith and far far behind such overpaid 4th liners as Colton Sissons.

View attachment 648010

Hmm. Which site is this from? Just curious, because the stats on the site I'm using don't really line up. (He's buried in the middle of the pack on this site in ESP/60 and P/60. He's actually 4th of 17 in PPP/60. On the site I'm looking at his SH% and faceoff% are terrible. (Novak's faceoff% is abysmal, btw.)

OTOH, maybe this site has garbage data...

PS: If it's not garbage, then it certainly raises a question. Looking at these analytics, it makes no sense at all to play Novak at centre over Sissons. Again assuming these analytics aren't pure trash...

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Hmm. Which site is this from? Just curious, because the stats on the site I'm using don't really line up. (He's buried in the middle of the pack on this site in ESP/60 and P/60. He's actually 4th of 17 in PPP/60. On the site I'm looking at his SH% and faceoff% are terrible. (Novak's faceoff% is abysmal, btw.)

OTOH, maybe this site has garbage data...

That's NHL.com for my list.

 

[Kat Predator]

That's NHL.com for my list.

Looks like the analytics site uses some different formula for the ?/60 numbers. Other columns at identical.

[Ed: He sucks if you throw out the OT numbers, etc. He's a middling forward if you take OT, etc. into account. At least in terms of points. The guy just doesn't shoot the puck. However you want to break down those stats, Hynes still rides him like a rented mule. Trenin, Smith, Jeannot, and Granlund at 5x5 are all lower than McCarron was last year. Other nuggets: Tomasino was 5th among forwards at P/60 at 5x5 last season. Tolvanen is at 2.36 with the Kraken, which would make him 2nd only to Forsberg.]

 

[LCPreds]

Remember that time when we signed Granlund and a lot of people made fun of the fancy stats post? Like most things it really only matters what you would have otherwise spent the money on but yeah.

 

[Armourboy]

Remember that time when we signed Granlund and a lot of people made fun of the fancy stats post? Like most things it really only matters what you would have otherwise spent the money on but yeah.

View attachment 648099

I still think it's like a lot of guys on this roster, they have been used incorrectly and it's makes their numbers worse than it would be with a decent coach. That said I'm more than ok with moving Granlund.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Remember that time when we signed Granlund and a lot of people made fun of the fancy stats post? Like most things it really only matters what you would have otherwise spent the money on but yeah.

I mean, there's a "who you could have spent the money on", but also the "who you could have given the icetime to" element with him. If he's scoring basically at the same rate as our bottom line plugs, then...

If we had just let Tolvanen... or Sherwood lol... play all those minutes Granlund has this year, for example....

 

[Predsanddead24]

Remember that time when we signed Granlund and a lot of people made fun of the fancy stats post? Like most things it really only matters what you would have otherwise spent the money on but yeah.

View attachment 648099

Is that chart correct though? The GSVA stuff is behind the paywall so I can't see it but I'd be interested to see hat his real versus projected ended up being. In any case, he had his best season as a Pred last year so it missed that prediction, and while it is correct for this year I really have a hard time classifying him as a bottom line player moving forward.