Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[Monk]

For being such a great planner, I would have expected him to be ranked higher than 22 out of 32 GMs.

It’s not that he doesn’t have a plan at all, just that it changes as much as a teenager’s mood, and IMO the recent plans just simply have not been good.

To me, lists like you reference and fans' opinions are almost entirely results based. We have no view into the plans whatsoever, we just make assumptions based on the outcomes. Fans/lists don't take into account context or luck, because they can't really. Lists like that and general fan opinions are slow to react. If CBJ finish toward the bottom again, Jarmo will slide down that list more. If they do better, he'll slide up. And that, to me, will say nothing about his plans. It will barely at all speak to the actual "moves" he made.

"The Jackets haven't been that good under Jarmo's (relatively long) tenure, so his time is up" is a perspective I can understand. I don't agree with it (getting closer), but at least it's a defendable position to take.

I get we're all here to speculate, read between the lines and dig into the details we don't actually know, especially during the offseason, but sometimes it just grinds my gears when I see the same conclusions supported by complete unknowns or objective falsehoods, over and over again.

When a post leads off with something like "Jarmo has no plan" I don't know how to engage, other than to be the annoying "Well actually" guy like I just was. Sorry bout that.

 

[Cowumbus]

To me, lists like you reference and fans' opinions are almost entirely results based. We have no view into the plans whatsoever, we just make assumptions based on the outcomes. Fans/lists don't take into account context or luck, because they can't really. Lists like that and general fan opinions are slow to react. If CBJ finish toward the bottom again, Jarmo will slide down that list more. If they do better, he'll slide up. And that, to me, will say nothing about his plans. It will barely at all speak to the actual "moves" he made.

"The Jackets haven't been that good under Jarmo's (relatively long) tenure, so his time is up" is a perspective I can understand. I don't agree with it (getting closer), but at least it's a defendable position to take.

I get we're all here to speculate, read between the lines and dig into the details we don't actually know, especially during the offseason, but sometimes it just grinds my gears when I see the same conclusions supported by complete unknowns or objective falsehoods, over and over again.

When a post leads off with something like "Jarmo has no plan" I don't know how to engage, other than to be the annoying "Well actually" guy like I just was. Sorry bout that.

Inversely, you cannot show me he has a good plan.

I have been critical of Jarmo and his direction with the team over many years. But now that they have Fantilli, I am not going to complement him on some master plan when I know reading between the lines he had no intention of being in a lottery position (you know this too).

Their point total have been trending down for 4 years, despite being the youngest team in the league.

 

[Monk]

Inversely, you cannot show me he has a good plan.

Of all the assumptions we could make, this may be the dumbest.

 

[Cowumbus]

Of all the assumptions we could make, this may be the dumbest.

Your opinion. However wrong it may be.

 

[Monk]

Your opinion. However wrong it may be.

I'm not sure if you edited or I misread, but I didn't see the word "good" in there when I replied.

I thought you were saying, like you did a page back, that there was no plan at all. That's silly.

My apologies.

 

[Cowumbus]

I'm not sure if you edited or I misread, but I didn't see the word "good" in there when I replied.

I thought you were saying, like you did a page back, that there was no plan at all. That's silly.

My apologies.

No he has had a plan, it just might suck. Fantilli changes a lot, but it’s not his doing.

 

[Monk]

No he has a plan, it just might suck.

See now we're operating in the realm of reality, and I can say "fair enough."

 

[Monk]

I have been critical of Jarmo and his direction with the team over many years. But now that they have Fantilli, I am not going to complement him on some master plan when I know reading between the lines he had no intention of being in a lottery position (you know this too).

That's fine & fair. Again, I don't draw the same conclusion, and that's also fine.

I guess I'm just saying there is no right or wrong here, nobody can win this 'debate.'

At the end of the day, as with practically everything here, we can agree to disagree and that's cool. Maybe an unsatisfactory ending to the conversation, but there it is.

 

[Indy18]

Of all the assumptions we could make, this may be the dumbest.

There is clearly a plan based on the Provorov, not for the man himself but the retention, trade. Since we didn't use any of that space that was covered in the retention and with several high priority RFAs coming due FO clearly has in mind what they want to pay Marchenko/KJ because every 2LHD they been targeting was around 4-4.5 mil. But the thing is we needed a 2LHD but something short term (hense why we didn't expent Gavi, it wasn't due to money but term) since we spent so much draft capital over the past few years drafting LHDs but a player who isn't 30+ in age incase the LHD prospects bust out. This is why we were in all those Chychrun rumors for such a long time, even to the start of last year, because it meets this criteria

 

[Monk]

Fantilli changes a lot, but it’s not his doing.

...but Bedard was Kyle Davidson's doing.

 

[Cowumbus]

See now we're operating in the realm of reality, and I can say "fair enough."

Thought experiment, which scenario makes the CBJ better?

Scenario 1
2022/23 CBJ team stays healthy, finishes with 79 points just below the Capitals

Scenario 2
Same as reality, 2022/23 CBJ team finishes bottom 3, selects Fantilli

Now, let’s add in a new second scenario.

Scenario 2 (new)
Jarmo “tanks” and the CBJ finish bottom 6, but we do not know what happens in the lottery

Do you still prefer Scenario 2 to Scenario 1? IMO (which has not changed since before the 2022/23 season) I still choose scenario 2.

That is kind of my gripe with Jarmo. I think the potential franchise C is more valuable than the 79 point season. Maybe I am in the minority, but planning to hit that 79 point season rather than draft a C you need (4 elite C prospects, 5 in top 9) is where I say his plan(s) suck.

...but Bedard was Kyle Davidson's doing.

Planned vs non planned (injuries)

Sportnet's Elliotte Friedman Calls Out The Blackhawks Management Kyle Davidson

Kyle Davidson made it clear that he wanted to recreate his own legacy in the Blackhawks organization.

www.hawksinsider.com

"We’re going to look at more of a rebuild here," Davidson said. "There are some things that we really need to fix that are going to take time. We're not going to put a timeline on it, whether it's three, five [years], I don’t have that answer right now. That will be determined as we proceed.

"But we really need to do this the right way and we're going to stick to the plan and take our time with it and make sure that when we get to where we want to go, then it was the result of a plan that was stuck to and not deviated from."

Davidson planning for Blackhawks ‘rebuild,' not retool

In his introductory press conference as Blackhawks GM, Kyle Davidson said he’s planning for a rebuild and he doesn’t intend on deviating from that.

www.nbcsportschicago.com

 

[Monk]

Thought experiment, which scenario makes the CBJ better?

Scenario 1
2022/23 CBJ team stays healthy, finishes with 79 points just below the Capitals

Scenario 2
Same as reality, 2022/23 CBJ team finishes bottom 3, selects Fantilli

Now, let’s add in a new second scenario.

Scenario 2 (new)
Jarmo “tanks” and the CBJ finish bottom 6, but we do not know what happens in the lottery

Do you still prefer Scenario 2 to Scenario 1? IMO (which has not changed since before the 2022/23 season) I still choose scenario 2.

That is kind of my gripe with Jarmo. I think the potential franchise C is more valuable than the 79 point season. Maybe I am in the minority, but planning to hit that 79 point season rather than draft a C you need (4 elite C prospects, 5 in top 9) is where I say his plan(s) suck.

This just tells me you think GMs have waaaaaay more control over.. everything? than they do in reality.

"planning to hit that 79 point season"

..what? It's the same nonsense as the "planning" Kyle Davidson did to draft Bedard. That mofo got lucky as f*** and you can't convince me otherwise.

Planned vs non planned (injuries)

Sportnet's Elliotte Friedman Calls Out The Blackhawks Management Kyle Davidson

Kyle Davidson made it clear that he wanted to recreate his own legacy in the Blackhawks organization.

www.hawksinsider.com

"We’re going to look at more of a rebuild here," Davidson said. "There are some things that we really need to fix that are going to take time. We're not going to put a timeline on it, whether it's three, five [years], I don’t have that answer right now. That will be determined as we proceed.

"But we really need to do this the right way and we're going to stick to the plan and take our time with it and make sure that when we get to where we want to go, then it was the result of a plan that was stuck to and not deviated from."

For all his amazing planning, Kyle Davidson still did a worse job at it than that dumbass Jarmo.

 

[Cowumbus]

This just tells me you think GMs have waaaaaay more control over.. everything? than they do in reality.

"planning to hit that 79 point season"

..what? It's the same nonsense as the "planning" Kyle Davidson did to draft Bedard. That mofo got lucky as f*** and you can't convince me otherwise.

You’re grasping at straws. My point is that Jarmo wanted to compete. 79 points puts us in line with the Caps, which I think is a fair projection.

 

[Indy18]

This just tells me you think GMs have waaaaaay more control over.. everything? than they do in reality.

"planning to hit that 79 point season"

..what? It's the same nonsense as the "planning" Kyle Davidson did to draft Bedard. That mofo got lucky as f*** and you can't convince me otherwise.

Lets say two teams jump outside the top 3 in the lottery and Chicago falls from 3 to 5 and end up with Michkov or Will Smith. The only thing that changes is now Chicago has to tank really hard for 3-4 years to develop instead of the 1-2 now they have with Bedard. All it does is up the rebuild time by 2-3 years similar to how the Jones trade probably knocked 1 year off our rebuild timer.

 

[Cowumbus]

For all his amazing planning, Kyle Davidson still did a worse job at it than that dumbass Jarmo.

Not really though, he secured an elite C. Top 3 gets you there.

 

[Monk]

Not really though, he secured an elite C. Top 3 gets you there.

If we're to believe Jarmo did such a bad job at tanking, and Kyle Davidson did such a good job at tanking, then we're inherently acknowledging the unbelievable amount of luck involved. And I go back to my gripes with assertions about GM's plans, intentions, etc. And we're full circle. Agree to disagree.

 

[Monk]

Never mind. Going in circles. I'm outta here for now

 

[Crede777]

Only things I'm willing to pin on Jarmo is the Brad Larson hiring and missing when he drafts between #15 - #30.

It's clear he can identify talent and acquire it (Werenski, Panarin, Jones, PLD, etc.). Nothing he can do if that talent decides to leave regardless of the offer the CBJ make. Otherwise, I can't blame a GM for constantly trying to make the team better every chance he gets.

 

[JacketsDavid]

Only things I'm willing to pin on Jarmo is the Brad Larson hiring and missing when he drafts between #15 - #30.

It's clear he can identify talent and acquire it (Werenski, Panarin, Jones, PLD, etc.). Nothing he can do if that talent decides to leave regardless of the offer the CBJ make. Otherwise, I can't blame a GM for constantly trying to make the team better every chance he gets.

I don't think he understands team construction.
He panics often when he figures out what his team needs - 2 years ago it was toughness so he grossly overpaid for Gudbranson and traded for Olivier. Both are nice guys but neither made the team better.
The entire time he neglected defense. Ok Gudbranson plays defensemen but he needed to solidify the team defense.

Now a season too late he figures out the team defense is an issue so he acquires 2 guys who will help but again likely overpaid. More importantly he hired a coach which will stress defensive accountability. But while doing this he ignores goal tending.

The grade I would disagree with is trading - there I think he is pretty strong. Just his roster construction is lacking.

 

[traffic cone]

No he has had a plan, it just might suck. Fantilli changes a lot, but it’s not his doing.

Ahh. So he gets credited for the bad and unlucky things happening but not the good ones. Got it.

 

[GoJackets1]

Pretty scary that the FO apparently doesn’t have a plan for our top 5 U23 pipeline that we built by complete accident.

 

[VT]

Not sure what your point is. Florida traded for Tkachuk, and did a great job doing so - that’s not luck.
Jarmo was willing to compete with what we had both short term and long term. He really was OK with the rebuild, without a 1C.

We got extremely fortunate that last year went the way it did.

Florida was one of the teams where Tkachuk wanted to play. Panthers also had players who could have traded for him, being drafted by another GM. Besides, ones needed just such a player and Huberdeau showed he wasn't the ideal PO player.

Next, look at defense of Florida. Ekblad, Gudas, Montour, M. Staal, Mahura. Simply, Florida was lucky. Centers: Zito did not get Barkov and Lundell, in defense Ekblad, also goalie Bobrovsky who was important in this PO.

Jarmo acquired Gaudreau as a free agent. And I don't think he is to blame for the injuries. Get Werenski, Blankenburg, Boqvist, Bean, forwards Gaudreau, Laine, Marchenko, Johnson, Sillinger. Centers: it was difficult because we couldn't get them. Nobody trades an excellent center and they are not on our position in drafts. Only later Johnson, maybe Sillinger, now Fantilli. We will see as Laine.

Btw, our defense without injuries: Werenski, Gavrikov, Boqvist, Bean, Blankenburg, Gudbranson. I am sure a more experienced coach would use it better if players would be health.

 

[Youngguns1380]

 

[CBJx614]

View attachment 739966

I think there's one thing we can all agree on... This season can't start soon enough!

I'm curious to see where he lines up, whether it's center or wing. If he's playing center we might except Jenner-Fantilli-Voronkov as the top 3(no particular order) and Kuraly likely 4th. But I think we'll see a lot of experimenting early on with Johnson and Laine, maybe even Texier and Danforth.

 

[NotWendell]

No he has had a plan, it just might suck. Fantilli changes a lot, but it’s not his doing.

Custer had a plan.