Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[majormajor]

@Cowumbus It's hard for me to tell if you're just bored or if you really believe this stuff.

Your worried comment when Pronman ranked the Jackets pipeline #5, something like "is this good enough?" I think betrays the issue.

Great teams are built with great players at all ages. Give yourself a tour of Vegas, Boston, etc...

The teams that tried your approach - "be the worst team -> get the best prospect group -> win the cup" have often floundered. Two of my favorite teams are the Oilers and Sabres and they both lost a whole decade with that approach, at several points they had the best prospect pool in the league.

Fitting the #5 pool into a good team should lead to better results than fitting the #1 pool into a bad team. How good we are this year and next when KJ, Jiricek, and Fantilli are joining the team is really important.

 

[Cowumbus]

@Cowumbus It's hard for me to tell if you're just bored or if you really believe this stuff.

Your worried comment when Pronman ranked the Jackets pipeline #5, something like "is this good enough?" I think betrays the issue.

Great teams are built with great players at all ages. Give yourself a tour of Vegas, Boston, etc...

The teams that tried your approach - "be the worst team -> get the best prospect group -> win the cup" have often floundered. Two of my favorite teams are the Oilers and Sabres and they both lost a whole decade with that approach, at several points they had the best prospect pool in the league.

Fitting the #5 pool into a good team should lead to better results than fitting the #1 pool into a bad team. How good we are this year and next when KJ, Jiricek, and Fantilli are joining the team is really important.

Take Fantilli away, and how do you feel? My point is that our team would not have gotten a 1C without the injuries. You have to draft them. You can get a stop gap 1C via trade or UFA maybe, but not a long term C through their prime. You need that to win. Period. We know that by now.

People are complaining about the scorched Earth rebuild, but we finished dead last and got exactly what we needed - a potential 1C. Which is what we should have planned for. Exactly what I have been saying. Tank and get 1 of the 4 in this draft. Our core a year ago was not good enough. 1-2 more years of suck. That is what I wanted from the start. We got lucky. We did not plan, to have another year at the bottom of the NHL.

The guys I wanted to trade early, all are gone. If we trade them earlier, maybe we get more value? Voracek, Nyquist, Gavrikov, still waiting on Roslovic.

I honestly feel Jarmo was okay with the core before Fantilli and that is insane to me. You can retool all you want, but you need a true 1C to win.

NJD and Buffalo look great. It take a good GM to build a team. So yeah I believe it.

It will be interesting to see if Chicago becomes a contender before we do.

 

[stevo61]

Healthy Voracek was not tradeable in a good deal in a cap world. Nyquist could have gone sooner for an okish package but freak accidents happen. Gavrikov deal happened at a good time and it didnt affect value. Roslovic deal probably doesnt happen without heavy retention and for next to nothing. At this point its worth seeing what Babcock gets out of him, maybe gets him playing well enough for someone to buy higher on

 

[majormajor]

Take Fantilli away, and how do you feel? My point is that our team would not have gotten a 1C without the injuries. You have to draft them. You can get a stop gap 1C via trade or UFA maybe, but not a long term C through their prime. You need that to win. Period. We know that by now.

People are complaining about the scorched Earth rebuild, but we finished dead last and got exactly what we needed - a potential 1C. Which is what we should have planned for. Exactly what I have been saying. Tank and get 1 of the 4 in this draft. Our core a year ago was not good enough. 1-2 more years of suck. That is what I wanted from the start. We got lucky. We did not plan, to have another year at the bottom of the NHL.

The guys I wanted to trade early, all are gone. If we trade them earlier, maybe we get more value? Voracek, Nyquist, Gavrikov, still waiting on Roslovic.

I honestly feel Jarmo was okay with the core before Fantilli and that is insane to me. You can retool all you want, but you need a true 1C to win.

NJD and Buffalo look great. It take a good GM to build a team. So yeah I believe it.

It will be interesting to see if Chicago becomes a contender before we do.

I would feel hopeful about our future even without Fantilli. I don't believe he's our only shot at a 1C. You're writing off KJ way too early there, he could be better than Fantilli. Who knows about Laine. There's plenty of 1Cs that weren't drafted in the top 3 - Aho, Hintz, Thompson, etc.. That has always been an ignorant myth.

That and there's something very different about losing out because of injuries versus an intentional tank. You don't keep players like Gaudreau and Laine if you're dismantling and trying to lose, they wouldn't stay. Jarmo can't play this like a video game, he's got to persuade players that this is a team they can win with.

Aside from the excruciating experience that was last season - which has to be factored in - we've been lucky. We sucked partly because of injuries, good veterans that we'll have coming back. And we sucked in an unusually good time to suck, just enough to get the third pick in a top 3 draft with 3 great 1C prospects. I don't see anything like that in this draft or the next. We'd be fools to intentionally try to do that again and end up with more players jumping ship, losing more talent than we'd gain.

 

[Cowumbus]

I would feel hopeful about our future even without Fantilli. I don't believe he's our only shot at a 1C. You're writing off KJ way too early there, he could be better than Fantilli. Who knows about Laine. There's plenty of 1Cs that weren't drafted in the top 3 - Aho, Hintz, Thompson, etc.. That has always been an ignorant myth.

That and there's something very different about losing out because of injuries versus an intentional tank. You don't keep players like Gaudreau and Laine if you're dismantling and trying to lose, they wouldn't stay. Jarmo can't play this like a video game, he's got to persuade players that this is a team they can win with.

Aside from the excruciating experience that was last season - which has to be factored in - we've been lucky. We sucked partly because of injuries, good veterans that we'll have coming back. And we sucked in an unusually good time to suck, just enough to get the third pick in a top 3 draft with 3 great 1C prospects. I don't see anything like that in this draft or the next. We'd be fools to intentionally try to do that again and end up with more players jumping ship, losing more talent than we'd gain.

Regarding the myth - it is true you can find talent later in the draft, but Jarmo after 9 years has not found a player of that caliber in the mid to late rounds, so I am not very confident in that route.

I think KJ will be good, he’s my favorite prospect. Just the longer we go on, the more I see him on the W.

If he played more C I could believe it, but it seems like they are content with him being a play driving W.

 

[NotCommitted]

Isn't the actual outcome of this scenario better, they got the tank outcome without selling everyone and have some kind of hope of bringing up the kids into a decent team?

And Buffalo might look OK now but ask yourself how long it took them to get there? They drafted their franchise #1C 8 years ago or something and that guy isn't with the team anymore. Their new #1C is a 26th OA. I really don't think they are good example to use for how great tanking is.

 

[Cowumbus]

Isn't the actual outcome of this scenario better, they got the tank outcome without selling everyone and have some kind of hope of bringing up the kids into a decent team?

They would have sold the same guys. The UFAs were always going to go. It was the best case outcome, from a poor plan IMO.

And Buffalo might look OK now but ask yourself how long it took them to get there? They drafted their franchise #1C 8 years ago or something and that guy isn't with the team anymore. Their new #1C is a 26th OA. I really don't think they are good example to use for how great tanking is.

If Eichel is healthy, and they trade for D rather than ROR, who knows?

I look at the Leafs and I see a core built through drafting high in 4-5 drafts in a row. Penguins 4 drafts. Chicago 2 (two top3 picks back to back) and GEMS in the later rounds.
NJD I see 5-6 drafts. Tampa 2 drafts and the 3 drafts after 91+77, finding GEMS. Oilers 5-6 drafts.

The Hurricanes are a good example of not having the consecutive high draft picks, though they do have some.

With our current GM, I trust making the high picks rather than finding late round talent - maybe I’m wrong in that, but I don’t have confidence after 10 years of him drafting.

Long story short I think it takes 4-5 drafts, with maybe 1-2 years of difference for a re-tool vs rebuild. We tried the 2 year retool once before with Werenski+Dubois. I wonder if we would have been better off long term taking another 1-2 years? Is this not similar to what we had in 2016?

@majormajor brought up the question I had of “is this core good enough?” This is what I am referring to. Is the core in line to be good enough or comparable to the cores listed above?

It seemed like Jarmo was okay to move forward and take a forward step in the re-tool before last season. If we got someone like Daniil But rather than Fantilli, I’m not sure I believe KJ,Sillinger,Jiricek,But is good enough to match up with some of the other cores in the examples above. Of that group, I may see a 1st line player or two, but not a franchise player. Adding Fantilli puts us very close to the other cores - I admit that (which is another one of my points > why I wanted us to “tank” and also why I am not keen on trading 1st round picks at this point). I still think long term a rebuild of 4-5 years was/is better for the franchise than a re-tool. In my opinion this year really showed the major flaws the team has with respect to the roster, if they weren’t known already.

I’m excited for the season truly. I still think another high pick would do wonders for the franchise, but I think the roster that Jarmo has put together raises the floor of the team out of lottery range - for better or worse.

The ceiling of the team is as high as Fantilli takes it.

 

[VT]

Jarmo was guided by the draft situation. If he had to get another player, he would have made trades. That goes for the coach as well. If they hadn't signed Babcock, but another, trades would probably have to come. Granted we don't know yet if there will be changes after camp, we have too many players that need waivers.

One more thing. Strengthening the team doesn't mean you have to make a lot of trades, if any. In our case, that goes double. Voronkov and Texier are coming, effectively Werenski, Bean and Danforth, we acquired Provorov and Severson before July 1. Johnson, Marchenko and Chinakhov will only grow, I doubt Sillinger will repeat such a horrendous season. Laine hopefully won't get hurt early in the season. Btw, he trained with Barkov the last two seasons who played 67 and 68 games then. So the fact that he didn't train with him before this season might help him, since Alexandr literally overdid it with his preparation. I'm not counting Jenner, who only got injured around the time we lost the chance to play in the PO.

Honestly, I'm only worried about one thing, our goalies.Tarasov is a great player but somehow he was injured a lot (hence the stats, he still had to get in shape), Elvis is Elvis.

 

[thebus88]

Does anyone know how Voronkov's skating has looked like recently? I didn't watch too many KHL games this past season but watched a ton a couple years ago. From what I remember he's a bull in a china shop with a surprising amount of skill but his skating was very subpar. As in I'm not even sure I would call it NHL level a couple years ago. If his skating has improved I could see Babcock using him as a winger for something like Fantilli-Gaudreau or Roslovic/Laine. When he was in Toronto he loved pairing up two high skill guys with a grinder/pest/go get the puck type of guy.

I’m with you on questioning if Voronkov’s skating or “style” will work as a center in the NHL. I also don’t think his “skill” is quite where some are projecting, however, I could be wrong there and there’s still room/time for growth.

Overall, it’s been pretty fascinating to watch the ebbs and flows of the fan perception with the recent young Russian guys. People seem high on Marchenko and low on Chinakhov currently, when it was the opposite before. I’m just overall not AS optimistic as many seem to be regarding Voronkov, especially him playing center adequately, and it being his rookie NA and NHL season is something that can’t be understated.

 

[thebus88]

Jarmo is teaching a masterclass. He actively spends like he's building a competive team but ends up in the lottery.

Unironically.

More than enough people have had questions how the team has been built the last few years. The cap money and focus on offense over defense cannot be denied. Also, 1 thing I absolutely agree with Cow and some others on, is that the injury excuse for last year is BS. They were SHIT that preseason before that, and shit BOTH the years before that.

The CLEAR over abundance of wingers, nearly all of them subpar defensively or at the least “offensive minded”, the CLEAR lack of centers even the biggest Roslovic, Laine, and Jenner fans can’t deny, along with the CLEAR lack of defensive ability or depth AND toughness that was literally non existent. People seem to forget, but, IT WAS worse on defense without Gudbranson. Or how “bullied” and dominated physically they were as a team with Domi/Peeke/Kuraly as our “toughness”.

Then there has ALWAYS been Elvis. And he’s ALWAYS been what’s he is.

Again, everyone has their own opinions on the real reasons why Gaudreau decided to come to the CBJ, with varying levels of legitimacy IMO. It obviously makes the team “better” by adding a player of that caliber, but I still contend that they didn’t need his “style” of player at the time, and adding him just added to the necessity of making a change to the forwards, that still has never happened, IMO.

The fact that they went out and added Gudbranson, Provorov, AND Severson, in the time frame they did as (easily arguably) a “necessity” says A LOT, imo.

Veiled Tank

 

[thebus88]

They specifically said "Retooling, not a rebuild" but you're judging based on your expectation of a rebuild.

Instead of gutting the team and building from ground up, they just made adjustments because the old core wasn't going to work. On top of that they used the picks really well. I think the turnaround has been great and should start providing results this season. Should have already last season but injuries ruined it.

Uhh, that’s not accurate in any way. Where are you getting that they moved away from the “old core” in any way, and can you name the “old core”, just for clarity.

That “old core” worked much better and had more success than any “CBJ core” will have with Patrick Laine involved with it. Save this, mark my words, whatever.


Can’t wait to hear Mike Babcock’s opinion.

Also, can we stop acting like this team hasn’t been terrible for 3 ENTIRE years.

 

[stevo61]

Uhh, that’s not accurate in any way. Where are you getting that they moved away from the “old core” in any way, and can you name the “old core”, just for clarity.

That “old core” worked much better and had more success than any “CBJ core” will have with Patrick Laine involved with it. Save this, mark my words, whatever.


Can’t wait to hear Mike Babcock’s opinion.

Also, can we stop acting like this team hasn’t been terrible for 3 ENTIRE years.

Babcock knows the importance of getting Laine going for the teams success. I think he'll work better and harder with him than you anticipate. He was coaching against him when he broke into the league and knows what the goal scoring and overall offensive potential is

 

[thebus88]

Take Fantilli away, and how do you feel? My point is that our team would not have gotten a 1C without the injuries.

Bedard or Carlsson would be good. Any level headed person could see the team, even fully healthy, wasn’t going to be successful.

I guess I misread/misinterpreted what you were saying about the teams injuries. I disagree about this, and think you have been somewhat “fooled” by what you think Jarmo’s overall plan has been or how good the team would have been without injuries.

Just because you or others think Jarmo thought the team would be good, doesn’t mean he really thought that. That said, I also have been fooled a bit in this same way, yet, thinking about it, I think “the injuries” were just an easy way or “excuse” for Jarmo to use for the REAL reason why the team has been so bad. There were practically no changes to the defense before this summer. Nobody made the case that Gudbranson was going to cure the teams defensive woes. The argue most people liked the addition for his “intangibles”, veteran voice and toughness more so than his actual defensive ability. That said all 4 things were and arguably are still a need for this team, and I still think the Gaudreau connection can’t be denied.

You have to draft them. You can get a stop gap 1C via trade or UFA maybe, but not a long term C through their prime. You need that to win. Period. We know that by now.

Bottom line is you need good/adequate players and good/adequate depth, it’s that simple. WHO CARES how you acquire them, if you drafted them, or how long they’ve been in the organization. Not very many guys are “long term C’s through their prime”, literally almost all of them have a “growth phase” in the NHL that teams have to allow them to go through. Not only that, let’s see that list of guys that fit your criteria, if it’s not nearly 30 names, I don’t think it should be categorized as a “need” or “necessity”, or looked at as the “norm”.

People are complaining about the scorched Earth rebuild, but we finished dead last and got exactly what we needed - a potential 1C. Which is what we should have planned for. Exactly what I have been saying. Tank and get 1 of the 4 in this draft. Our core a year ago was not good enough. 1-2 more years of suck. That is what I wanted from the start. We got lucky. We did not plan, to have another year at the bottom of the NHL.

The guys I wanted to trade early, all are gone. If we trade them earlier, maybe we get more value? Voracek, Nyquist, Gavrikov, still waiting on Roslovic.

I honestly feel Jarmo was okay with the core before Fantilli and that is insane to me. You can retool all you want, but you need a true 1C to win.

NJD and Buffalo look great. It take a good GM to build a team. So yeah I believe it.

It will be interesting to see if Chicago becomes a contender before we do.

I honestly think Jarmo has literally done what you wanted him to do, just with a higher team salary/cap hit than what most other “tanking” teams could realistically pull off. The Gaudreau signing is a unique “bump in the road” in the rebuilding process, but, obviously adding him wasn’t enough to “ruin” the CBJ’s chances of picking high, so what’s the issue really??

That said, a fully healthy Werenski adds some points to the CBJs end of the year statistics, I just don’t know how much.

 

[thebus88]

Babcock knows the importance of getting Laine going for the teams success. I think he'll work better and harder with him than you anticipate. He was coaching against him when he broke into the league and knows what the goal scoring and overall offensive potential is

I think (or hope) Babcock, like Torts, is a guy that will focus on getting the team going, regardless of where Laine is at. The problem isn’t going to be Babcock and what he knows the importance of.

Both Laine and Gaudreau make too much money to have to be prodded to “get going”, and it’s 1 of my main complaints of them individually, and as a “1-2 punch”.

Coming this preseason, I predict honesty from Babcock and pouting and questionable/concerning comments from Laine in response.

We’ll see. That’s if Laine makes it through the late summer fully healthy, there’s been no confirmation yet if he’s been OVER training or UNDER training this offseason….I’m sure he’ll “tweak” something and we’ll have to wait another year to truly judge him.

 

[Monstershockey]

Both Laine and Gaudreau make too much money to have to be prodded to “get going”, and it’s 1 of my main complaints of them individually, and as a “1-2 punch”.

I agree with this. These two guys just seem like the type of guys you go get when you have a good team in place and you just need that extra scoring punch. They don't come across to me as guys you want to build around.

I am also curious how Laine responds to Babcock. Seeing how he responded to Torts when he got here makes me wonder if he will revert back to pouting if things don't go his way. If things go well and he buys in, then we should be okay.

 

[majormajor]

Long story short I think it takes 4-5 drafts, with maybe 1-2 years of difference for a re-tool vs rebuild. We tried the 2 year retool once before with Werenski+Dubois. I wonder if we would have been better off long term taking another 1-2 years? Is this not similar to what we had in 2016?

@majormajor brought up the question I had of “is this core good enough?” This is what I am referring to. Is the core in line to be good enough or comparable to the cores listed above?

FWIW your original question was whether the U23 pipeline was good enough. Pipelines / prospect pools are not cores. Its telling that you seem to think that 23+ aged players are irrelevant to future team success.

 

[thebus88]

FWIW your original question was whether the U23 pipeline was good enough. Pipelines / prospect pools are not cores. Its telling that you seem to think that 23+ aged players are irrelevant to future team success.

Interesting to look at people’s “definitions” of different things and how easily things can be lost in translation or misinterpreted or misunderstood. Semantics.

I didn’t read fully into every detail of his opinions, but, I just thought I agreed with what he was saying about the impact of the injuries on this past years team, when I essentially felt the opposite.

Then, when he questions “the core”, I’m thinking I agree and he’s talking the older guys, Jenner/Werenski/Gaudreau/Laine/Merzlikins/Kuraly/new D men etc, when he’s talking these guys JUST drafted and we truly know very little about their potential.

 

[Marioesque]

Both Laine and Gaudreau make too much money to have to be prodded to “get going”, and it’s 1 of my main complaints of them individually, and as a “1-2 punch”.

Coming this preseason, I predict honesty from Babcock and pouting and questionable/concerning comments from Laine in response.

Blah blah. Laine scores a point per game with Jack Roslovic in his line, there's no "get going" needed. Gaudreau very similar. Everyone does better with better linemates obviously.

I don't know what this "get going" argument is.

You'll find any comment questionable and concerning when Laine is involved. You'll interpret things to support your delusions about him

 

[ClevelandJacketFan]

To me, the biggest problem with this team recently has been focusing on how to get more point production out of its stars versus having an acceptable system set up that doesn't leave an undermanned, under talented and low confidence goalie out to dry.

Larson was just a coach who was either unable to or blissfully unaware to the biggest problems facing the team. Babcock is much more pragmatic and defense oriented, imo. He should be able to set the team up for success defensively. And as much hand wringing over the stars and their points production, I believe the structure of the team and system is much more indicative of success than Laine, Gaudreau or Fantilli scoring a ton of points.

 

[stevo61]

To me, the biggest problem with this team recently has been focusing on how to get more point production out of its stars versus having an acceptable system set up that doesn't leave an undermanned, under talented and low confidence goalie out to dry.

Larson was just a coach who was either unable to or blissfully unaware to the biggest problems facing the team. Babcock is much more pragmatic and defense oriented, imo. He should be able to set the team up for success defensively. And as much hand wringing over the stars and their points production, I believe the structure of the team and system is much more indicative of success than Laine, Gaudreau or Fantilli scoring a ton of points.

I just think it lacked overall direction. I believe Larsen wanted to see a more fun and offensive style when he didnt have the team for it. He never really adjusted to the issues either.

Babcock being a veteran like Torts can adapt and get a lot more out of a team. Babcock is just demanding, I dont think we will see a boring collapsing team, he will just hold people accountable for low effort. On the flipside, that with adding puck movers on the backend will be a significant boost to the offense not a hinderance

 

[Cowumbus]

FWIW your original question was whether the U23 pipeline was good enough. Pipelines / prospect pools are not cores. It’s telling that you seem to think that 23+ aged players are irrelevant to future team success.

Casual fallacy.

 

[NotWendell]

Prospects are not the core. The core is here and now, not the future. Just a general position statement, not addressing any preceding comments specifically.

 

[Monstershockey]

I just think it lacked overall direction. I believe Larsen wanted to see a more fun and offensive style when he didnt have the team for it. He never really adjusted to the issues either.

Babcock being a veteran like Torts can adapt and get a lot more out of a team. Babcock is just demanding, I dont think we will see a boring collapsing team, he will just hold people accountable for low effort. On the flipside, that with adding puck movers on the backend will be a significant boost to the offense not a hinderance

I can see what you and ClevelandJacketFan are saying with the coaching, and maybe changing coaches was enough, but I just feel there is a big void when it comes to having a leadership core from the players. I am not in the room obviously, but I just don't get the captain vibe with Jenner. It just seems to me they need stronger voices coming from the players, whether it be communicating with the coaches on they players behalf, or being able to light a fire under some guys to get them to play harder. We needed to move on from Foligno as he was getting older, but I just can't figure out where that type of leadrship can come from with the current roster.

 

[stevo61]

I can see what you and ClevelandJacketFan are saying with the coaching, and maybe changing coaches was enough, but I just feel there is a big void when it comes to having a leadership core from the players. I am not in the room obviously, but I just don't get the captain vibe with Jenner. It just seems to me they need stronger voices coming from the players, whether it be communicating with the coaches on they players behalf, or being able to light a fire under some guys to get them to play harder. We needed to move on from Foligno as he was getting older, but I just can't figure out where that type of leadrship can come from with the current roster.

Leadership can help be built through coaches also. Foligno is actually a good case of a player being built into the role vs innately being the guy. Listening to Werenski speak makes me think hes taken his time away from the ice to realize he and that contract have to take a major step in the leadership department. Also the additions on D while I dont know how they interact with guys are veterans and having less kids will help.

I think it starts with training camp. Babcock has to set expectations high and the vets have to keep it there. We know Boone isnt going to give any legendary speeches but just go out there and work your ass every day and call out anyone who isnt.

Its obviously not an accident Jarmo went with a coach who has won and is demanding this time around. Guys are proud and wont want to be embarrassed again like last year. Pair that with the new additions on the ice and even if they arent a playoff team I expect the compete level to be significantly higher

 

[thebus88]

I can see what you and ClevelandJacketFan are saying with the coaching, and maybe changing coaches was enough, but I just feel there is a big void when it comes to having a leadership core from the players. I am not in the room obviously, but I just don't get the captain vibe with Jenner. It just seems to me they need stronger voices coming from the players, whether it be communicating with the coaches on they players behalf, or being able to light a fire under some guys to get them to play harder. We needed to move on from Foligno as he was getting older, but I just can't figure out where that type of leadrship can come from with the current roster.

Blaming Jenner or holding him accountable for the lack of leadership with the current team is like blaming him for the current center depth. IMO.