Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[Cowumbus]

Thats what I meant by saved from himself. But im just talking about moves. They are no more short sighted than a year ago and didnt lose a good roster player like Bjorkstrand in the process and the team was apparently ranked 9th a year ago. Im actually curious and want to look up last years list

They might be close to my exhausted line of thinking. That adding Severson on a big UFA deal or Provorov for 1-2 years does not help the team long term (which is what you should prioritize in a rebuild), as much as a draft pick or cap space would. Especially for the RHD problem, when the problem will fingers crossed) eventually be fixed from within.

National people probably are more conservative on what stage of the rebuild we are in, compared to many here. If you agree with them that we are still early in the process, then yeah the Provorov/Severson deals probably are Jarmo thinking short term.

 

[stevo61]

They might be close to my stated line of thinking. That adding Provorov for 1-2 years does not help the team long term (which is what you should prioritize in a rebuild), as much as a draft pick or cap space would. Similarly signing Severson to an 8 year deal, when the problem would (fingers crossed) eventually be fixed from within.

National people probably are more conservative on what stage of the rebuild we are in, compared to many here. If you agree with them that we are still early in the process, then yeah Provorov/Severson probably are Jarmo thinking short term.

Im a bigger fan of the Provorov deal as its a bridge to the future plus if he gets back on track he will be worth more than we paid if he isnt just resigned. The Severson deal like Espen pointed out is maybe viewed as more reactionary and at the end could cause more issues and maybe thats what they are meaning. Its the Gudbranson deal causing issues as Peeke should be there and slot everyone more appropriately.

 

[Cowumbus]

Im a bigger fan of the Provorov deal as its a bridge to the future plus if he gets back on track he will be worth more than we paid if he isnt just resigned. The Severson deal like Espen pointed out is maybe viewed as more reactionary and at the end could cause more issues and maybe thats what they are meaning. Its the Gudbranson deal causing issues as Peeke should be there and slot everyone more appropriately.

I mean can’t they just buy out Gudbranson next year for under 1 million a season?

 

[VT]

Jarmo not top5? The athletic hates us and the writer is biased.


Maybe because the team didn’t have a plan at all until they lucked into Fantilli?

And Florida?
It had lucky into M. Tkachuk, then Pens lost its game, Ullmark played tragical in the first serie against Boston.

Besides remember an "interesting" draft lottery.

Also Carlsson can be as good as Fantilli.

Next, our preseason politic is guided by the draft and now the new coach.

It's also easier to get to teams of Florida, or cup contenders.

And finally, find me a team that didn't get lucky.

 

[stevo61]

I mean can’t they just buy out Gudbranson next year for under 1 million a season?

1.6 for 2 years followed by 1.1 for 2 more. A short sighted move a year ago could cause 4 years of dead cap if thats the route he goes

 

[Cowumbus]

And Florida?
It had lucky into M. Tkachuk, then Pens lost its game, Ullmark played tragical in the first serie against Boston.

Besides remember an "interesting" draft lottery.

Also Carlsson can be as good as Fantilli.

Next, our preseason politic is guided by the draft and now the new coach.

It's also easier to get to teams of Florida, or cup contenders.

And finally, find me a team that didn't get lucky.

Not sure what your point is. Florida traded for Tkachuk, and did a great job doing so - that’s not luck.
Jarmo was willing to compete with what we had both short term and long term. He really was OK with the rebuild, without a 1C.

We got extremely fortunate that last year went the way it did.

 

[Monk]

We got extremely fortunate that last year went the way it did.

And this is... a knock on Jarmo? This is how you get 1Cs in the NHL pretty much.

 

[Cowumbus]

1.6 for 2 years followed by 1.1 for 2 more. A short sighted move a year ago could cause 4 years of dead cap if thats the route he goes

I mean you know I hated the deal at the time, and still do, although Gudbranson seems like a good guy.

Anyway, we could retain or pay to send him to a team like the Sharks. Depends on what we value more at that time, space or assets.

 

[Indy18]

Im a bigger fan of the Provorov deal as its a bridge to the future plus if he gets back on track he will be worth more than we paid if he isnt just resigned. The Severson deal like Espen pointed out is maybe viewed as more reactionary and at the end could cause more issues and maybe thats what they are meaning. Its the Gudbranson deal causing issues as Peeke should be there and slot everyone more appropriately.

I've always used Gudbranson as an insurance policy for Jiricek and since Severson is here now I can understand that line of thinking but as for the rest I don't see any major long term issues (3+ years out) and 6.25 will probably be the going rate in 2-3 years for a 2/3RHD as we are about to experience some nasty cap inflation.

 

[CBJx614]

I mean you know I hated the deal at the time, and still do, although Gudbranson seems like a good guy.

Anyway, we could retain or pay to send him to a team like the Sharks. Depends on what we value more at that time, space or assets.

I'm gonna give the guy a chance to be slotted properly in the lineup before I'm looking to ship him off or buy him out. His average TOI last season was 21 minutes. The previous 4 seasons he hovered between 17-18. Ideally he's between 16-18.

 

[Cowumbus]

And this is... a knock on Jarmo? This is how you get 1Cs in the NHL pretty much.

Yes it’s a knock on Jarmo?

He planned for the team to battle for a playoff spot, or at least be better than the 12OA place, not finish bottom 3. Jarmo was ready to end the rebuild. He added Gudbranson, he added Gaudreau. We got lucky, it was not part of his master plan.

Injuries might have saved the franchise. You really think if everyone was healthy all year the team finishes next to the Ducks and Hawks? Not a chance. They would be ahead of the Flyers in the Metro, and still not close to a playoff spot.

I'm gonna give the guy a chance to be slotted properly in the lineup before I'm looking to ship him off or buy him out.

It’s not about his play, it’s about his pay.

 

[Monk]

Yes it’s a knock on Jarmo?

He planned for the team to battle for a playoff spot, not finish bottom 3. Jarmo was ready to end the rebuild.

Injuries might save the franchise.

Yeah this is just sports. It's like 90% luck. I guess he should have tanked the team with more obvious intention so as to not just appear a passenger to the luck.

 

[Indy18]

I'm gonna give the guy a chance to be slotted properly in the lineup before I'm looking to ship him off or buy him out.

I am still of the mind the real reason we overpaid him is to be the next Jared Boll. He's extremely smart when it comes to how the game is played and player management (which is basically how he survived this long without getting knocked out of the league). He's going to be in FO or Coaching staff in 3 or so years here so I am expecting a buyout in 2025

 

[stevo61]

I've always used Gudbranson as an insurance policy for Jiricek and since Severson is here now I can understand that line of thinking but as for the rest I don't see any major long term issues (3+ years out) and 6.25 will probably be the going rate in 2-3 years for a 2/3RHD as we are about to experience some nasty cap inflation.

I dont hate the player, its the deal. The last 2 signings are going to force Boqvist out the door maybe sooner than we wanted. I still expect a bit of an offensive pop and im worried it happens after hes moved

 

[CBJx614]

Yes it’s a knock on Jarmo?

He planned for the team to battle for a playoff spot, or at least be better than the 12OA place, not finish bottom 3. Jarmo was ready to end the rebuild. He added Gudbranson, he added Gaudreau. We got lucky, it was not part of his master plan.

Injuries might save the franchise.


It’s not about his play, it’s about his pay.

I mean... Those are kind of tied together no? If his play sucks than it's going to affect how we view his pay. If he's a solid physical force on the ice we're more willing to accept that he's a little overpaid but worth it.

 

[Cowumbus]

Yeah this is just sports. It's like 90% luck. I guess he should have tanked the team with more obvious intention so as to not just appear a passenger to the luck.

You think Chicago was lucky to get Bedard, or that their GM had a plan in place to finish near the top of the draft?

I mean... Those are kind of tied together no? If his play sucks than it's going to affect how we view his pay. If he's a solid physical force on the ice we're more willing to accept that he's a little overpaid but worth it.

No, you win with depth and cap management. The VGK just won the Stanley Cup, and Gudbranson would have been the 4th highest paid D on their team, despite being worse than arguably any Defenseman they have.

We are terrible, there is no way I’m paying a bottom pair Dman 4 million dollars. That’s just stupid, when you have equivalent/ better players within.

 

[CBJx614]

You think Chicago was lucky to get Bedard, or that their GM had a plan in place to finish near the top of the draft?


No, you win with depth and cap management. The VGK just won the Stanley Cup, and Gudbranson would have been the 4th highest paid D on their team, despite being worse than arguably any Defenseman they have.

We are terrible, there is no way I’m paying a bottom pair Dman 4 million dollars. That’s just stupid.

Once again. Tied to his performance. If he's playing up to his expectations than it's worth it. He wasn't the physical force we needed from him last season, I'm curious to see how Babcock uses him.

 

[Monk]

You think Chicago was lucky to get Bedard, or that their GM had a plan in place to finish near the top of the draft?

So Kyle Davidson gets credit for tanking, and Jarmo gets blamed for not tanking, while the Jackets actually finished nearer to the top of the draft than the Blackhawks did.

And to answer your question: Yes. Obviously.

 

[Cowumbus]

Once again. Tied to his performance. If he's playing up to his expectations than it's worth it. He wasn't the physical force we needed from him last season, I'm curious to see how Babcock uses him.

Bottom. Pairing. D. Should. Not. Make. 4. Million. Dollars.

So Kyle Davidson gets credit for tanking,

Kyle Davidson knows the Hawks are far from competing and wants to make them better long term, he made a plan to do that.

and Jarmo gets blamed for not tanking,

Jarmo did not have a plan to get better long term He was fine going into the season with two new UFA’s, trading away Bjorsktrand, having no center depth, no center prospects, and a goalie controversy (which he probably got wrong) and finishing 8-12OA. How are we going to build a competitive team long term with that roster and prospect pool?

while the Jackets actually finished nearer to the top of the draft than the Blackhawks did.

CBJ because of injuries. Hawks bc of a plan. That’s the difference.

And to answer your question: Yes. Obviously.

 

[Monk]

Bottom. Pairing. D. Should. Not. Make. 4. Million. Dollars.

Kyle Davidson knows the Hawks are far from competing and wants to make them better long term, he made a plan to do that.

Jarmo did not have a plan to get better long term. He was fine going into the season with two new UFA’s, trading away Bjorsktrand, having no center depth, no center prospects, and a goalie controversy (which he probably got wrong). How are we going to build a competitive team long term with that roster and prospect pool?

CBJ because of injuries. Hawks bc of a plan. That’s the difference.

This is all made up

All you're saying is that you don't like the assumptions you're making about whatever plans he had based on the outcome(s).

For all we know his plan worked perfectly.

 

[Cowumbus]

This is all made up

All you're saying is that you don't like the assumptions you're making about whatever plans he had based on the outcome(s).

For all we know his plan worked perfectly.

Jarmo the master planner.

 

[Monk]

Jarmo the master planner.

It's just as plausible to me as "Jarmo the thumb-up-his-ass-moron-with-no-plan" theory

The truth is surely somewhere in the middle

 

[CBJx614]

Jarmo the master planner.

You don't think the injuries didn't affect his plan? Whose to say we don't go after a Lindholm type if we aren't staring down the possibility of getting a lottery pick

Bottom. Pairing. D. Should. Not. Make. 4. Million. Dollars.

Yeah if you're expecting the cap to stay flat sure, but the caps been expected to rise for awhile now. But he's also seen as a leader so I'm sure that affected what we were willing to offer as well.

 

[Cowumbus]

It's just as plausible to me as "Jarmo the thumb-up-his-ass-moron-with-no-plan" theory

The truth is surely somewhere in the middle

For being such a great planner, I would have expected him to be ranked higher than 22 out of 32 GMs.

It’s not that he doesn’t have a plan at all, just that it changes as much as a teenager’s mood, and IMO the recent plans just simply have not been good.

 

[Cowumbus]

You don't think the injuries didn't affect his plan? Whose to say we don't go after a Lindholm type if we aren't staring down the possibility of getting a lottery pick?

That would be another huge mistake by Jarmo.

Yeah if you're expecting the cap to stay flat sure, but the caps been expected to rise for awhile now. But he's also seen as a leader so I'm sure that affected what we were willing to offer as well.

He is the 89th highest paid D in the league, with a 39% Corsi, 38% Fenwick, has never played a full 82 games. See ya!