Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[Cyclones Rock]

I won't go quite that far. There are plenty of #2 goalies around the league that would be the #1 here.

Wasn't Aidin Hill of Las Vegas a #3 starting the season? He wasn't the #1 pick for the playoffs-that I know. He'd easily be a better option than goalieclownshow# the CBJ have.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Some small tidbits

There is one contract still unsigned. Defenseman Tim Berni did not accept his qualifying offer by the Saturday deadline, so the offer ($874,125 on a two-way contract) has now expired. He remains a restricted free agent, but he and the Blue Jackets will have to negotiate new terms. Berni played 59 games last season (1-2-3) when injuries ravaged the Columbus blue line, but he’s likely to spend most of this season with AHL Cleveland. If he isn’t signed by Dec. 1, he’s ineligible to play.

Kekalainen said the pursuit of a goaltender continues, even now that the NHL has mostly closed up shop for the summer. They’re looking for a player who can split time with Jet Greaves in Cleveland, but also handle NHL starts if Elvis Merzlikins or Daniil Tarasov struggle again this season. “We don’t have anything complete yet,” Kekalainen said. “We’re working on it.”

Regarding the possibility of signing young guys eligible for extensions, and the CBJ recent history of being tough to negotiate with (for RFAs)

Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko, Cole Sillinger, Alexandre Texier, Yegor Chinakhov and others are heading into the final years of their entry-level deals this season, meaning the Blue Jackets (as of July 1) are now free to sign them to extensions.
This is where the Blue Jackets have historically had their biggest issues.

Where other clubs have started signing their top young players to long-term contracts coming out of entry-level deals, the Blue Jackets have leaned hard into shorter-term “bridge” contracts that expire with the player still in his restricted free-agency years.
The only Blue Jackets players to sign into their UFA years from their entry-level contracts were Rick Nash (2005) and Seth Jones (2016).

“We’d be happy to lock a guy up,” Kekalainen told The Athletic this week. “If we see this guy as a 100 percent sure bet, in the way we evaluate a player, we’d definitely try to lock them up.”

It is, of course, a two-way street. NHL contracts are guaranteed, so a long-term contract can be appealing for players, but there are reasons to avoid long-term contracts, too.It has never been an organizational philosophy, per se, to avoid long-term contracts with young players, Kekalainen said. So, in that sense, the relative peace of the last two offseasons is not the result of some new approach.
But the Blue Jackets, now with one of the best young pools of talent in the NHL, may see long-term contracts as a way to keep their group together. It’s been hard to build a winning program in Columbus with so many young players leaving before the prime of their careers.

That could be changing.

“If you have good, young players like we have,” Kekalainen said. “I think it could become a strategy that gives us cost certainty over a longer period of time.”

 

[Cowumbus]

Some small tidbits


Regarding the possibility of signing young guys eligible for extensions, and the CBJ recent history of being tough to negotiate with (for RFAs)

They should lock up KJ sooner rather than later IMO.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

They should lock up KJ sooner rather than later IMO.

I agree but only KJ (for now).

 

[majormajor]

They should lock up KJ sooner rather than later IMO.

What number do you think it starts with? 7? 8?

Where does this fit compared to the big extensions for Keller, Hughes, Hischier, Stutzle, etc...?

 

[Cowumbus]

What number do you think it starts with? 7? 8?

Where does this fit compared to the big extensions for Keller, Hughes, Hischier, Stutzle, etc...?

I was hoping a 6 lol, lower than Keller I would think?

 

[majormajor]

Looks like Berni is trying to get traded.

I can't blame him, he'd be in the NHL rotation for some clubs, but not much chance here.

 

[majormajor]

I was hoping a 6 lol, lower than Keller I would think?

I just looked it up. Keller was coming off 47 pts in 82 games when he signed that contract, feels similar to KJ. And you have to add in some inflation on top of Keller's number ($7.1m).

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

I might go for KJ and Marchenko to be honest. They would be my important pieces for the future. No idea on the numbers though, I don't think either has really shown the same qualities (or production, to be more specific) as some of the other players mentioned... Maybe 6-7 for KJ, 4-5 for Marchy...

Kekalainen said the pursuit of a goaltender continues, even now that the NHL has mostly closed up shop for the summer. They’re looking for a player who can split time with Jet Greaves in Cleveland, but also handle NHL starts if Elvis Merzlikins or Daniil Tarasov struggle again this season. “We don’t have anything complete yet,” Kekalainen said. “We’re working on it.”

I've mentioned this before but I can't stop thinking about UPL out of Buffalo. It sounds like they're going for a 3 goalie rotation or starting him in Rochester (again, it's been like this for two years I think). They've got Levi as future #1. UPL might have a better chance here to become a legit #1, but he might be ok starting in Cleveland and waiting for his time (again). And I think he's a good goalie but he might've fallen out of favor in Buffalo, they might not ask for the moon for him. He's still only 24.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Looks like Berni is trying to get traded.

I can't blame him, he'd be in the NHL rotation for some clubs, but not much chance here.

He had 3 points in almost 60 games. I get he was serviceable on a horrid team, but I don't think anyone is going to come beating his doors down.

I just looked it up. Keller was coming off 47 pts in 82 games when he signed that contract, feels similar to KJ. And you have to add in some inflation on top of Keller's number ($7.1m).

I'd take KJ at 7ish million on 8 years. In 2 years that would probably be one of the best bargains in the NHL.

If Marchenko would (unexplainably) take 5-6 million per on an 8 year deal I'd probably do that too. But he'll probably want another season before negotiating.

 

[majormajor]

If Marchenko would (unexplainably) take 5-6 million per on an 8 year deal I'd probably do that too. But he'll probably want another season before negotiating.

I'd also want another season before negotiating with Marchenko. He has 4 career assists! And Gaudreau's scoring went off a cliff next to him. I'm still not sure what Marchenko's level is.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I'd also want another season before negotiating with Marchenko. He has 4 career assists! And Gaudreau's scoring went off a cliff next to him. I'm still not sure what Marchenko's level is.

How much of that was Gaudreau mailing it in, though?

 

[majormajor]

How much of that was Gaudreau mailing it in, though?

It was a 50% drop off. That's a lot.

I'd want to see a lot more from Marchenko.

 

[stevo61]

Johnson knows he had a good rookie season especially with his role and everything going on. He also knows what the cap is going to do.

If we use Keller as a loose baseline for a contract to look at and take the same % of the cap it would put Johnson at about 7.3mil. Id do it, Id like to see us sign a young guy to a long deal that could be a steal after a few years

 

[Cowumbus]

Johnson knows he had a good rookie season especially with his role and everything going on. He also knows what the cap is going to do.

If we use Keller as a loose baseline for a contract to look at and take the same % of the cap it would put Johnson at about 7.3mil. Id do it, Id like to see us sign a young guy to a long deal that could be a steal after a few years

One thing to consider is that Keller led the Coyotes in points 2 years in a row before signing that deal.To play devils advocate, it’s a bit risky to sign it now (even if I would). How often have we seen the sophomore slump from promising rookies? Once teams discover your tendencies it’s a bit harder to produce. Ask Sillinger, or even Roslovic (year two at C).

With KJ, I really hope we don’t take him to UFA… bridge as long as possible.

 

[stevo61]

One thing to consider is that Keller led the Coyotes in points 2 years in a row before signing that deal.To play devils advocate, it’s a bit risky to sign it now (even if I would). How often have we seen the sophomore slump from promising rookies? Once teams discover your tendencies it’s a bit harder to produce. Ask Sillinger, or even Roslovic (year two at C).

With KJ, I really hope we don’t take him to UFA… bridge as long as possible.

Sillinger was a very different case. Id bet a on a skill guy who gets by on IQ over a guy who hasnt shown too much of anything. If they team is going to break the hardball mold with RFAs Johnson is a player Id start with. Id place a good size bet you would be paying a lot more for him down the line and end up like the Leafs overpaying guys or risk losing them. Id go bridge on Sillinger, Marchenko and Chinakhov easy though

 

[Cowumbus]

Sillinger was a very different case. Id bet a on a skill guy who gets by on IQ over a guy who hasnt shown too much of anything. If they team is going to break the hardball mold with RFAs Johnson is a player Id start with. Id place a good size bet you would be paying a lot more for him down the line and end up like the Leafs overpaying guys or risk losing them. Id go bridge on Sillinger, Marchenko and Chinakhov easy though

I don’t disagree. I just really want KJ to be a lifetime Jacket, and feel more comfortable not letting see what else is out there at 26/27 yo.

 

[stevo61]

I don’t disagree. I just really want KJ to be a lifetime Jacket, and feel more comfortable not letting see what else is out there at 26/27 yo.

Signing a big deal now lets him sign another big one before 30, I think that would be good for the relationship from both sides

 

[Nanabijou]

Sure it could be a steal, but giving KJ a long-term contract worth 7+ million after one 40 point season? No thanks. I hope he's the real deal and a Jacket for life. But, I wouldn't open up the coffers for him until we have a much larger sample size.

 

[CBJx614]

Sure it could be a steal, but giving KJ a long-term contract worth 7+ million after one 40 point season? No thanks. I hope he's the real deal and a Jacket for life. But, I wouldn't open up the coffers for him until we have a much larger sample size.

It would be two seasons worth of production though, as this would be most likely in the second half of the season if not the offseason, we would know by then if he's taken a step forward or back by then.

 

[majormajor]

It would be two seasons worth of production though, as this would be most likely in the second half of the season if not the offseason, we would know by then if he's taken a step forward or back by then.

I'd try and sign him to max term right now.

 

[Nanabijou]

It would be two seasons worth of production though, as this would be most likely in the second half of the season if not the offseason, we would know by then if he's taken a step forward or back by then.

That's different to what I was interpreting was being said (and voiced by MM explicitly below). Deciding next off-season (or late upcoming season) with more sample size fits with what I said.

I'd try and sign him to max term right now.

I agree with you on a lot of things but not this. No need to do this at this point. Make the kid earn his big paycheck.

 

[CBJx614]

That's different to what I was interpreting was being said (and voiced by MM explicitly below). Deciding next off-season (or late upcoming season) with more sample size fits with what I said.


I agree with you on a lot of things but not this. No need to do this at this point. Make the kid earn his big paycheck.

I'd try and sign him to max term right now.

It takes two to tango. I don't think his agent would be advising to take the deal now. All he's gotta do it bet on himself for a few months and if he performs and gets a little luck he could bump that 7per closer to 8 and almost make an entire years extra over the course of the deal.

 

[tunnelvision]

Regarding KJ's next contract, we probably should also consider what FO might think about where is he projected to mainly play at in a few years: at center or wing?

What if we think that the likeliest best case scenario for him is to "only" become a close-to-PPG top-6 winger in 3-5 years (Svechnikov, Keller, Bratt etc)? Are we sure we want to commit to the risk of locking him up for +7.3M/8years?

If we assume he'll be closer to Thomas/Suzuki/Hischier type top-6 two-way forward who can take a lot of faceoffs and is unlikely to "wennberg" in the playoffs, then of course it would be smart imo to sign him to a max term deal already. These type players are usually more valuable in relation to their cap hit.

I don't know what could be the best route to take with him. Maybe I wouldn't do anything this summer, and instead just play him at 2C/3C role next year with a lot of d zone starts and time on PP2 so that it would be difficult for him to put up big numbers and use that to raise his value. If later in the season it seems as he can play that role adequately all year long and look like a future top-6 center, then it's definitely time to offer max term.

 

[EspenK]

My thought on KJ -give him a 3 yr bridge deal that I believe keeps him in RFA status at the end. Then pay him what he is worth. I'd try for 5-6mm range.