Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[stevo61]

There's no guarantee he's going to be as good as Nylander. Signing him to eight years at this point is extremely risky.

If you have to pay him as a UFA after 8 years of proving himself so be it.

Thats the thing, at 7mil he doesnt have to be nearly as good as Nylander to be worth it. Nylander is pushing for 10 now because he took a bit of a deal when noone else on his team did. Now hes in control

 

[BB88]

Thats the thing, at 7mil he doesnt have to be nearly as good as Nylander to be worth it. Nylander is pushing for 10 now because he took a bit of a deal when noone else on his team did. Now hes in control

It’s amazing how that keeps getting ignored constantly.

7M is top6 money moving forward, not star, not superstar money.

Want a star? 9-10M
Want a superstar? 12+

Devils have a massive advantage on being able to sign their kids before they took off

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

The cap is expected to grow 4m next summer. If that's the yearly growth rate, all new contracts will be around 15% bigger in 3 summers. $7m will be 2nd line money. KJ wouldn't have to improve much to hit that and be worth the contract.

7m 8y deal would be good value for most of the contract even if KJ topped out as 2nd line 60 point player

 

[MoeBartoli]

Perhaps a hybrid deal-5 years @ $6m AAV. That basically takes him through his peak production years and you go from there.

If he's a top performer at that point pay him market. It's too hard to predict exactly what type of player he will become

I know others disagree, but this is exactly what I’d target. People have cited the Nylander deal as a reason to not, yet I remember when the deal was done fans were outraged saying the Leafs caved.

 

[NotWendell]

Sure it could be a steal, but giving KJ a long-term contract worth 7+ million after one 40 point season? No thanks. I hope he's the real deal and a Jacket for life. But, I wouldn't open up the coffers for him until we have a much larger sample size.

Agreed. Let's not Elvis him.

 

[thebus88]

And complain about decimals.

We're still waiting to see that today.

Peeke sucks and the “decimals” mean absolutely nothing 95% of the time because 90% of the time they are completely made up.

The “models” that turn out these “decimals” are as accurate as the .95 and .90 seen above. The values given to different things are ridiculous as is, and it’s been proven that the actual information like shot locations and other things that the “advanced statistics” are based off, are literally not accurate. The accuracy behind keeping track of how dangerous an actual shot or scoring chance is, is a very simple yet important/strong example.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Thats the thing, at 7mil he doesnt have to be nearly as good as Nylander to be worth it. Nylander is pushing for 10 now because he took a bit of a deal when noone else on his team did. Now hes in control

The reason I think that signing him so that he gets UFA at the earliest possible time is that the CBJ will maximize their leverage on the contract after the ELC. It may end up costing somewhat more per year when the 5 year deal expires than an 8 year deal now would but it's an appropriate hedge from my vantage point.

While I'm of the hope that Johnson will pan out and be all that most here seem to think that he will be, I don't like exposing the team to a $50 million plus deal at max term. If Fantilli is all that is he is expected to become, Johnson tops out at a 2C or a top 6 winger. He's not going to be the centerpiece of the franchise. Fantilli will command an AAV of $10+ million/max term deal after his ELC expires and with Gaudreau and Severson already on the books for 8 years, Johnson at 8 years is one too many max term deals to have going on at once for my taste.

If Laine/Fantilli/Gaudreau reach maximum potential, then Laine adds an additional ingredient in the long term deal mix. Jiricek also adds intrigue to the long term deal scenario.

It's a better shorter term probable safe strategy than a longer term possible very sorry strategy with Johnson for me.

 

[Youngguns1380]

 

[majormajor]

The reason I think that signing him so that he gets UFA at the earliest possible time is that the CBJ will maximize their leverage on the contract after the ELC. It may end up costing somewhat more per year when the 5 year deal expires than an 8 year deal now would but it's an appropriate hedge from my vantage point.

While I'm of the hope that Johnson will pan out and be all that most here seem to think that he will be, I don't like exposing the team to a $50 million plus deal at max term. If Fantilli is all that is he is expected to become, Johnson tops out at a 2C or a top 6 winger. He's not going to be the centerpiece of the franchise. Fantilli will command an AAV of $10+ million/max term deal after his ELC expires and with Gaudreau and Severson already on the books for 8 years, Johnson at 8 years is one too many max term deals to have going on at once for my taste.

If Laine/Fantilli/Gaudreau reach maximum potential, then Laine adds an additional ingredient in the long term deal mix. Jiricek also adds intrigue to the long term deal scenario.

It's a better shorter term probable safe strategy than a longer term possible very sorry strategy with Johnson for me.

On the converse, if we're going to be paying several star players at once, we'll need to lock up some of them on discounts, before they can command UFA type money.

I also don't think Fantilli's presence means anything about what KJ is worth to us. KJ might end up being more the superstar of the two, for all we know.

 

[BB88]

The reason I think that signing him so that he gets UFA at the earliest possible time is that the CBJ will maximize their leverage on the contract after the ELC. It may end up costing somewhat more per year when the 5 year deal expires than an 8 year deal now would but it's an appropriate hedge from my vantage point.

While I'm of the hope that Johnson will pan out and be all that most here seem to think that he will be, I don't like exposing the team to a $50 million plus deal at max term. If Fantilli is all that is he is expected to become, Johnson tops out at a 2C or a top 6 winger. He's not going to be the centerpiece of the franchise. Fantilli will command an AAV of $10+ million/max term deal after his ELC expires and with Gaudreau and Severson already on the books for 8 years, Johnson at 8 years is one too many max term deals to have going on at once for my taste.

If Laine/Fantilli/Gaudreau reach maximum potential, then Laine adds an additional ingredient in the long term deal mix. Jiricek also adds intrigue to the long term deal scenario.

It's a better shorter term probable safe strategy than a longer term possible very sorry strategy with Johnson for me.

I don’t see the issue with giving 8 year terms to players who are 21-22, you are buying their prime years at discount.

& major said it doesn’t matter with Johnson if Fantilli becomes the franchise guy, you’re not paying Johnson franchise player money.

Fantilli/Jiricek/Johnson are 100% the players you want to hope to have on longterm deals throughout their 20’s, gives you flexibility with the cap moving up and stability.

 

[EspenK]

Fantilli 10mm
Gaudreau 9.75
Severson 6.25
Werenski 9.583
KJ 7.5
Jiricek 7.5
Laine 10
Marchenko 6
Svozil 6
Mateychuk 6
2024 #1 9
Goalies 7

By many peoples logic I could see this scenario play out. Going to be tough to sign those last 10 guys

Jarmo has assembled a lot of potentially really good players. He can't be ,and shouldn't be, handing out 8 year deals based on potential. Let KJ light it up this year and I'd be less opposed to going 8 years later in, or after, the season.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

I thought we were upset about playing hardball with RFAs and wanted to yse that as a reason players wanted out because it soured relationships. Now we have a player many of us think is worth the risk and thats not the move either

That hardball happened 365 days from now typically, when the player was actually RFA, not just eligible for the extension.

I see no reason to project/potentially overpay for KJ right now on a long-term deal. If he continues to progress this year, then I’d be comfortable overpaying long-term next summer (or in the middle of the season, a la Hughes) with the projection he continues to develop in 24-25/25-26 and becomes a star. If he has his huge breakout year/becomes a star this year, then I guess you lost the gamble, but there are also worse problems to have. But if he doesn’t continue to take a step this year, you avoided what could be a complete disaster if you sign him to a long-term deal this summer.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

i'm fine with a bridge deal for marchenko but giving him a big contract right now would be unwise.

his stats (21-4–25 line overall in 59 GP as a 22-year-old) remind me of another young winger, who as a 23-year-old put up a 22-2–24 line in 49 GP, with a similar SH% to marchenko and in less ice time. that winger was brandon pirri.

marchenko is a far better player, but pirri's career went off a cliff after that. not throwing money at a high shooting percentage is like GM 101.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Fantilli 10mm
Gaudreau 9.75
Severson 6.25
Werenski 9.583
KJ 7.5
Jiricek 7.5
Laine 10
Marchenko 6
Svozil 6
Mateychuk 6
2024 #1 9
Goalies 7

By many peoples logic I could see this scenario play out. Going to be tough to sign those last 10 guys

Jarmo has assembled a lot of potentially really good players. He can't be ,and shouldn't be, handing out 8 year deals based on potential. Let KJ light it up this year and I'd be less opposed to going 8 years later in, or after, the season.

The devil is always in the details. $87 million by my count on this list.

As this chart points out-even with some of the numbers a bit high-that the CBJ will have put themselves in a stranglehold if they keep giving out these big, long term deals.

With most long term deals come no trade or limited trade clauses. Currently Laine, Gaudreauu Werenski, Gurbanson, Severson, Kuraly, Jenner and Merzilins have them in one form or another. The flexibility of the roster then becomes a huge issue as a team gets more and more "stuck" as the number of these contracts populate the roster.

Not giving out an 8 year deal to a 40 points guy is not Johansen, Dubois or Anderson v2d. It's rational given the overabundance of long term no trade deals currently on the roster.

But, once again, Jarmo doesn't care. He's in a win now or leave soon mode.

 

[CBJx614]

The devil is always in the details. $87 million by my count on this list.

As this chart points out-even with some of the numbers a bit high-that the CBJ will have put themselves in a stranglehold if they keep giving out these big, long term deals.

With most long term deals come no trade or limited trade clauses. Currently Laine, Gaudreauu Werenski, Gurbanson, Severson, Kuraly, Jenner and Merzilins have them in one form or another. The flexibility of the roster then becomes a huge issue as a team gets more and more "stuck" as the number of these contracts populate the roster.

Not giving out an 8 year deal to a 40 points guy is not Johansen, Dubois or Anderson v2d. It's rational given the overabundance of long term no trade deals currently on the roster.

But, once again, Jarmo doesn't care. He's in a win now or leave soon mode.

The cap will have likely risen quite a bit by the time all those deals take place.


You and others keep saying this, but ive yet to see a desperation move. Trading a 3rd for the rights to Severson or trading a 1st for Provy isn't a desperation move.

A desperation move is trading Mateychuk, Dumais and a 1st for Lindholm.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Fantilli 10mm
Gaudreau 9.75
Severson 6.25
Werenski 9.583
KJ 7.5
Jiricek 7.5
Laine 10
Marchenko 6
Svozil 6
Mateychuk 6
2024 #1 9
Goalies 7

before people take this too seriously, gonna point out that this list has:

1. a TBD player who hasn't even been drafted yet (2024 pick) making $9m
2. two (2) defensemen who will presumably fight for one (1) spot in the top four both making $6m

given that it has a second contract for mateychuk (4 years until RFA assuming his ELC slides again) and still has werenski at 9.5 (5 years left), that'd put this in 27-28. if you take out the $9m to an imaginary teenager and assume the cap growth we've been told to expect, they'd still be totally fine with this cap structure.

 

[BB88]

edit

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

It's really a question of "Can we have a Cup contender without locking up a future star player early to a good team friendly contract?", i.e. the New Jersey way.

Alternatively, can we avoid anchor contracts (think Minnesota and their 14M dead cap)?

We don't have to do both, I think, but probably need one of those to have a reasonable chance cap and roster wise. I'd want to take a chance on one or two of our young players and see if they hit. Those don't usually become true anchors even if they don't hit.

 

[BB88]

It's really a question of "Can we have a Cup contender without locking up a future star player early to a good team friendly contract?", i.e. the New Jersey way.

Alternatively, can we avoid anchor contracts (think Minnesota and their 14M dead cap)?

We don't have to do both, I think, but probably need one of those to have a reasonable chance cap and roster wise. I'd want to take a chance on one or two of our young players and see if they hit. Those don't usually become true anchors even if they don't hit.

Minnesota is in trouble because of contracts to over 30y players you can’t sign today.


In my mind you need to figure out the core and committ to them longterm, like plenty of others are saying you need players on steal contracts if you want to be a longterm contender in this league and that happens more likely when you are paying early than too late.
Colorado vs Toronto.

Johnson/Fantilli/Jiricek are longterm targets

Mateychuk/Marchenko/Svozil etc are more in the bridge category if must

 

[cbjthrowaway]

It’s amazing how that keeps getting ignored constantly.

7M is top6 money moving forward, not star, not superstar money.

Want a star? 9-10M
Want a superstar? 12+

Devils have a massive advantage on being able to sign their kids before they took off

the way free agency is structured makes it hard to justify buying out a couple of UFA years coming off of an ELC. bridge deals are often framed as being riskier in case the guy pops off and makes you pay later, but there's a case to be made that it's the other way around.

the devils extended hischier early to a 7x7.25m deal. now he's set to hit UFA as a 28-year-old in a world where the cap will be drastically higher. in order to keep him past that deal, it'll take an 8-year deal with a market value AAV. same goes with hughes, who will hit UFA as a 29-year-old.

with both of those deals, they'll end up having to pay huge money for their stars into their late 30s. there's big risk in that.

had they gone with, say, 3 or 4 year bridge deals for those guys, they're still getting medium-term cost savings (perhaps more, since a bridge would have a lower AAV), then pay big with the 8-year deal after that, but instead of getting their age 29-37 seasons, they'd get the age 25-33 seasons.

if you give a guy 8 years off of an ELC, the two most likely outcomes are either losing a star for nothing or overpaying for non-prime years. if you do a bridge and then 8-year deals, you get their entire prime and end up saving on cap in the last few years (compared to doing back-to-back 8's).

 

[Jovavic]

I haven't seen enough from Johnson to give him an eight year contract, yet. One decent season isn't enough.

 

[EspenK]

I don’t see the issue with giving 8 year terms to players who are 21-22, you are buying their prime years at discount.

& major said it doesn’t matter with Johnson if Fantilli becomes the franchise guy, you’re not paying Johnson franchise player money.

Fantilli/Jiricek/Johnson are 100% the players you want to hope to have on longterm deals throughout their 20’s, gives you flexibility with the cap moving up and stability.

Once they have proven they're worth it on the ice. You just can't throw 8 year deals out willy nilly.

The cap is expected to grow 4m next summer. If that's the yearly growth rate, all new contracts will be around 15% bigger in 3 summers. $7m will be 2nd line money. KJ wouldn't have to improve much to hit that and be worth the contract.

7m 8y deal would be good value for most of the contract even if KJ topped out as 2nd line 60 point player

I believe the cap next year will reflect the players repaying what they didn't lose during Covid (escrow). I sincerely doubt it will continue to grow 4% eah year. And if we have learned anything during Covid it is that you can't go crazy or you could wind up in cap hell.

 

[BB88]

Once they have proven they're worth it on the ice. You just can't throw 8 year deals out willy nilly.

I believe the cap next year will reflect the players repaying what they didn't lose during Covid (escrow). I sincerely doubt it will continue to grow 4% eah year. And if we have learned anything during Covid it is that you can't go crazy or you could wind up in cap hell.

Nobody is talking about paying them like a superstar on max term but betting on them with proven top6 money on longterm deals.

So again where is the risk? You don’t think Johnson will be atleast a top6 forward moving forward?

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Once they have proven they're worth it on the ice. You just can't throw 8 year deals out willy nilly.

I believe the cap next year will reflect the players repaying what they didn't lose during Covid (escrow). I sincerely doubt it will continue to grow 4% eah year. And if we have learned anything during Covid it is that you can't go crazy or you could wind up in cap hell.

There has been ridiculous inflation since covid. Salaries will catch up to that with delay. I'm happy to bet the cap will keep going up as things stabilize and inflation starts going back down.

 

[BB88]

the way free agency is structured makes it hard to justify buying out a couple of UFA years coming off of an ELC. bridge deals are often framed as being riskier in case the guy pops off and makes you pay later, but there's a case to be made that it's the other way around.

the devils extended hischier early to a 7x7.25m deal. now he's set to hit UFA as a 28-year-old in a world where the cap will be drastically higher. in order to keep him past that deal, it'll take an 8-year deal with a market value AAV. same goes with hughes, who will hit UFA as a 29-year-old.

with both of those deals, they'll end up having to pay huge money for their stars into their late 30s. there's big risk in that.

had they gone with, say, 3 or 4 year bridge deals for those guys, they're still getting medium-term cost savings (perhaps more, since a bridge would have a lower AAV), then pay big with the 8-year deal after that, but instead of getting their age 29-37 seasons, they'd get the age 25-33 seasons.

if you give a guy 8 years off of an ELC, the two most likely outcomes are either losing a star for nothing or overpaying for non-prime years. if you do a bridge and then 8-year deals, you get their entire prime and end up saving on cap in the last few years (compared to doing back-to-back 8's).

With the way Devils cap is set they have a chance to be contenders for the next 5 years eazy.

Devils/Colorado/Tampa have a model that they should exactly try to follow and avoid the Toronto path.

Having guys like Hedman, Hughes, Mackinnon on sweet heart deals give you a lot of leverage