Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

My thought on KJ -give him a 3 yr bridge deal that I believe keeps him in RFA status at the end. Then pay him what he is worth. I'd try for 5-6mm range.

Bridge deals don't really result in great contracts. They should try to do what Devils did with J. Hughes. Long-term deal before the break out year

 

[stevo61]

I wish we had 1 more legit top 6 guy or Marchenko comes to camp much improved. I keep thinking Gaudreau-Fantilli end up together at some point but maybe it happens sooner than I expect. I wonder if the top 6 could be more like

Jenner-Johnson-Laine
Gaudreau-Fantilli-Marchenko/Roslovic

That second RW could either been fine or a real hinderance

 

[EspenK]

Bridge deals don't really result in great contracts. They should try to do what Devils did with J. Hughes. Long-term deal before the break out year

Well, Hughes averaged better than a ppg before his blockbuster deal.

I can't see giving KJ 7-8mm based on a .5ppg season. Alternatives are pay him now and pray like hell he's the real deal or he & Jarmo wait on this season and see if he puts up numbers worthy of the big contract.

My proposal is a bit richer than a typical bridge deal but doesn't tie either side up for more than 3 seasons and it retains team control when it is over.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Bridge deals don't really result in great contracts. They should try to do what Devils did with J. Hughes. Long-term deal before the break out year

the only issue with this approach is that it would mean kent hits UFA as a 29-year-old. if they go with a 3-year bridge, then go with an 8-year deal, they'd get him through his age-32 season. no matter what, kent's third contract will end up being at least seven years. if you keep his second one shorter, that third contract doesn't cover decline years.

plus, he's a 10.2(c) RFA next season. he won't be offer sheet eligible. means lower AAV on a bridge deal.

 

[BB88]

Sure it could be a steal, but giving KJ a long-term contract worth 7+ million after one 40 point season? No thanks. I hope he's the real deal and a Jacket for life. But, I wouldn't open up the coffers for him until we have a much larger sample size.

7M would be fair even if he ends up as only a top6 player.

They should definitely try to go the Devils route, bet on your core players early with longterm contracts, thanks to them they have a massive longterm window ahead and why they’ve been able to add star talent

 

[CBJx614]

the only issue with this approach is that it would mean kent hits UFA as a 29-year-old. if they go with a 3-year bridge, then go with an 8-year deal, they'd get him through his age-32 season. no matter what, kent's third contract will end up being at least seven years. if you keep his second one shorter, that third contract doesn't cover decline years.

plus, he's a 10.2(c) RFA next season. he won't be offer sheet eligible. means lower AAV on a bridge deal.

The massive unknown variable in all this is what does KJ want? Does he want to make the most money possible in his career? Does he secretly have some location given the opportunity he'd love to go? Does he just want to win? Or does he really like where he's at and is content staying here for his career.

 

[BB88]

That's different to what I was interpreting was being said (and voiced by MM explicitly below). Deciding next off-season (or late upcoming season) with more sample size fits with what I said.


I agree with you on a lot of things but not this. No need to do this at this point. Make the kid earn his big paycheck.

If you make him earn it you are paying 9.5-10 instead of 7.

Bridge would feel like the riskiesg, they are few years away from their window opening and by that time the core players are getting paid.
In 4 years time we could be looking at 11-13M for Johnson if he becomes a legit top line talent

My thought on KJ -give him a 3 yr bridge deal that I believe keeps him in RFA status at the end. Then pay him what he is worth. I'd try for 5-6mm range.

What if you end up having Johnson at 5-6M more expensive when you should start winning?

That starts eating up the depth

 

[BB88]

Well, Hughes averaged better than a ppg before his blockbuster deal.

I can't see giving KJ 7-8mm based on a .5ppg season. Alternatives are pay him now and pray like hell he's the real deal or he & Jarmo wait on this season and see if he puts up numbers worthy of the big contract.

My proposal is a bit richer than a typical bridge deal but doesn't tie either side up for more than 3 seasons and it retains team control when it is over.

7.x something is not going to destroy you even if he doesn’t end up reaching his ceiling.
With the way superstars are already getting paid and the cap going up it’s your basic top6 money moving forward for young talent

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Well, Hughes averaged better than a ppg before his blockbuster deal.

I can't see giving KJ 7-8mm based on a .5ppg season. Alternatives are pay him now and pray like hell he's the real deal or he & Jarmo wait on this season and see if he puts up numbers worthy of the big contract.

My proposal is a bit richer than a typical bridge deal but doesn't tie either side up for more than 3 seasons and it retains team control when it is over.

Perhaps a hybrid deal-5 years @ $6m AAV. That basically takes him through his peak production years and you go from there.

If he's a top performer at that point pay him market. It's too hard to predict exactly what type of player he will become

 

[stevo61]

Perhaps a hybrid deal-5 years @ $6m AAV. That basically takes him through his peak production years and you go from there.

If he's a top performer at that point pay him market. It's too hard to predict exactly what type of player he will become

And then end up with a Nylander situation. Thats about the worst contract to offer him

 

[EspenK]

So basically most guys want to lock up a .5 ppg guy based on fanboy glasses. No thanks. Now if he replicates Hughes point per game plus this season then by all means go 8 and give him a boatload.

 

[stevo61]

So basically most guys want to lock up a .5 ppg guy based on fanboy glasses. No thanks. Now if he replicates Hughes point per game plus this season then by all means go 8 and give him a boatload.

Yep you totally nailed it. No context needed, its just fanboy glasses.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

So basically most guys want to lock up a .5 ppg guy based on fanboy glasses. No thanks. Now if he replicates Hughes point per game plus this season then by all means go 8 and give him a boatload.

If you give him a bridge deal and he becomes a point per game player, then he'll get +10m because the cap will go up and contract values with it. Also you'll be buying more UFA years. This is the kind of safe play which is why Werenski got 9.5m.

Yes giving a big contract for 20 year old 0.5ppg player is risky, but that's the kind of gamble that makes you a contender for a decade.

 

[majormajor]

Well, Hughes averaged better than a ppg before his blockbuster deal.

I can't see giving KJ 7-8mm based on a .5ppg season. Alternatives are pay him now and pray like hell he's the real deal or he & Jarmo wait on this season and see if he puts up numbers worthy of the big contract.

My proposal is a bit richer than a typical bridge deal but doesn't tie either side up for more than 3 seasons and it retains team control when it is over.

So basically most guys want to lock up a .5 ppg guy based on fanboy glasses. No thanks. Now if he replicates Hughes point per game plus this season then by all means go 8 and give him a boatload.

Factcheck: Hughes signed his big contract on Nov 30th 2021, after a season where he scored 31 pts in 56 games. I agree, we should take that kind of gamble with KJ!

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Everyone knows the best withdrawal from a conversation is to repeat your main argument, name call the opposition, and leave it at that.

 

[majormajor]

Everyone knows the best withdrawal from a conversation is to repeat your main argument, name call the opposition, and leave it at that.

And complain about decimals.

We're still waiting to see that today.

 

[BB88]

So basically most guys want to lock up a .5 ppg guy based on fanboy glasses. No thanks. Now if he replicates Hughes point per game plus this season then by all means go 8 and give him a boatload.

What’s the risk if they could get Johnson signed longterm at 7M per season?

 

[stevo61]

What’s the risk if they could get Johnson signed longterm at 7M per season?

The biggest risk is probably Johnson going for another Michigan and offending Brent Sopel who climbs onto the ice and two hands him in the teeth

 

[AndBoomGoesTheCannon]

What’s the risk if they could get Johnson signed longterm at 7M per season?

The risk is not all young players make it - plenty of players flash and then bust. There is also risk in dollar amount - we complain about Gudbranson/Elvis contracts, but this would likely be millions more AAV so if it doesn’t work out it’s more painful on the cap.

Personally I feel confident enough in KJ that I would offer the long term deal, but it’s certainly not without risk.

 

[Nanabijou]

Cutting To The Core

In the afterglow of the Blue Jackets' 2009 playoff appearance, many supported the idea of augmenting the core of young players without subtracting from it. It made sense for several reasons, the most…

www.dispatch.com

And the wheel continues to turn…

There is absolutely risk in locking up young players too early. Not just busting but complacency, loss of drive. Plus it sets precedent for the next batch of youngsters. For newer fans, there was a time that Howson and CBJ were trying to lock up a core of youngsters of Brassard, Voracek, Mason etc long term early to supplement Nash, Vermette etc for the long run that was undoubtedly about the start - see article above for trip down memory lane. Spoiler - the run didn’t happen until that core was dismantled.

I’m good with opening the vault early for franchise players - Nash and Seth jones were examples. Fantilli may be the next one. Possible for KJ, I guess, if he takes a step forward this year but he’s not there yet.

 

[stevo61]

I thought we were upset about playing hardball with RFAs and wanted to yse that as a reason players wanted out because it soured relationships. Now we have a player many of us think is worth the risk and thats not the move either

 

[majormajor]

Cutting To The Core

In the afterglow of the Blue Jackets' 2009 playoff appearance, many supported the idea of augmenting the core of young players without subtracting from it. It made sense for several reasons, the most…

www.dispatch.com

And the wheel continues to turn…

There is absolutely risk in locking up young players too early. Not just busting but complacency, loss of drive. Plus it sets precedent for the next batch of youngsters. For newer fans, there was a time that Howson and CBJ were trying to lock up a core of youngsters of Brassard, Voracek, Mason etc long term early to supplement Nash, Vermette etc for the long run that was undoubtedly about the start - see article above for trip down memory lane. Spoiler - the run didn’t happen until that core was dismantled.

I’m good with opening the vault early for franchise players - Nash and Seth jones were examples. Fantilli may be the next one. Possible for KJ, I guess, if he takes a step forward this year but he’s not there yet.

I'm not the least bit worried about motivation and drive for KJ, he's going to max out whatever God gave him, and I don't say that for all of them.

There's always a chance that he gets a concussion or bad shoulder. Brassard and Voracek are good points, they had a lot of ups and downs, but still the 2010 version of a $7m x 8 is probably closer to $5.5m per, and that's a steal on Voracek and not bad on Brassard.

I thought we were upset about playing hardball with RFAs and wanted to yse that as a reason players wanted out because it soured relationships. Now we have a player many of us think is worth the risk and thats not the move either

There's a lot in between hardball and giving out a max term deal.

 

[stevo61]

I'm not the least bit worried about motivation and drive for KJ, he's going to max out whatever God gave him, and I don't say that for all of them.

There's always a chance that he gets a concussion or bad shoulder. Brassard and Voracek are good points, they had a lot of ups and downs, but still the 2010 version of a $7m x 8 is probably closer to $5.5m per, and that's a steal on Voracek and not bad on Brassard.



There's a lot in between hardball and giving out a max term deal.

Yeah things like effectively putting the player in control. With Johnson I think the options are short bridge or max term. If I were to bet Id say a max term deal saves you $ over time

 

[BB88]

The risk is not all young players make it - plenty of players flash and then bust. There is also risk in dollar amount - we complain about Gudbranson/Elvis contracts, but this would likely be millions more AAV so if it doesn’t work out it’s more painful on the cap.

Personally I feel confident enough in KJ that I would offer the long term deal, but it’s certainly not without risk.

So basically you’re saying you’re not comfortable with him atleast ending up as a top6 player?

 

[Cyclones Rock]

And then end up with a Nylander situation. Thats about the worst contract to offer him

There's no guarantee he's going to be as good as Nylander. Signing him to eight years at this point is extremely risky.

If you have to pay him as a UFA after 8 years of proving himself so be it.